Foxtons Group — Strategic momentum and M&A adds to value

Real Estate

Foxtons Group

Strategic momentum and M&A adds to value

Q3 trading update

Real estate

9 November 2023

Price	38p
Market cap	£125m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2023		2.1

Shares in issue	330m
Free float	100%
Code	FOXT

Primary exchange	LSE
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	9.0	2.5	18.7
Rel (local)	10.1	4.8	18.2

52-week high/low

42p

29p

Business description

Foxtons Group is London’s leading and most widely recognised estate agency. It operates from a network of 60 interconnected branches offering a range of residential-related services, which break down into three separate revenue streams: Lettings, Sales and Financial Services.

Next events

FY23 trading update	January 2024
Preliminary results	March 2024

Analyst

Andy Murphy

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

financials@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

Foxtons Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In Q323, all three of Foxtons’ divisions outperformed their respective markets, taking market share – the direct result of management action to avoid the same mistakes made during previous downcycles where costs were cut, a position from which it would subsequently struggle to recover. Foxtons’ new strategy focuses growth on non-cyclical revenue streams and decouples performance from sales market cycles. The latest value-enhancing acquisition leads to a net upgrade in estimates in FY24. We therefore raise our ‘base’ case valuation from 59p/share to 62p, which implies more than 60% upside, and our preferred ‘bull’ case valuation from 124p/share to 127p.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	PBT* (£m)	EPS* (p)	DPS (p)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
12/21	126.5	10.0	2.0	0.5	19.2	1.2
12/22	140.3	13.7	3.0	0.9	12.7	2.4
12/23e	145.1	13.5	2.4	0.9	16.0	2.4
12/24e	157.6	19.0	3.5	1.2	10.8	3.2

Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items, discontinued business and share-based payments. EPS is similar but after charging for share-based payments and excluding deferred tax re-measurement attributable to the corporate tax charge (ie diluted company definition).

Market share gains for third quarter in a row

Foxtons’ Q3 trading update highlighted progress against its turnaround plan, with market outperformance and market share gains in all three divisions. The CEO noted that this is the third consecutive quarter of outperformance, highlighting the ongoing investment in fee earners, staff training, data suites and the Foxtons brand. The latter is evidenced by Foxtons regaining the title of being London’s largest estate agency brand after it gained significant market share. For the nine months to the end of September (9M23), it grew total revenue by 5% to £114.8m, while revenue grew marginally to £43.9m in Q3 versus a robust comparator.

Eighth value-enhancing deal announced

On 7 November 2023 Foxtons announced it had agreed to buy Ludlow Thompson from its founders for a total consideration of £10.0m in cash. Ludlow Thompson is described as a ‘high-quality lettings focused’ estate agency operating from a seven-branch network in predominantly Docklands, the City and South London. The deal implies a sales multiple of 1.4x, in line with the average of deals completed to date. The 1,700 tenancies in the portfolio bring the acquired number of tenancies since 2020 to nearly 10,000, and Foxtons’ total tenancy portfolio to c 28,200.

Valuation: FY23 profit unchanged, FY24 raised 8%

Following the Q3/9M23 results, we are maintaining our FY23 operating profit estimate but are paring back our underlying FY24 estimate by c 4% as inflation adds to costs. However, the M&A works in reverse and we raise FY24 operating profit by a net 8%. We also raise our ‘base’ case valuation from 59p/share to 62p and our preferred ‘bull’ case valuation, which attempts to reflect market share gains across all three divisions in line with the revised strategy, from 124p/share to 127p.

Q323 trading update highlights progress

Not surprisingly, Foxtons’ Letting division performed the strongest of the three divisions in Q323 as the underlying rental market remained robust. That said, all three divisions outperformed their respective markets and took market share – the direct result of management action to avoid the same mistakes made during previous downcycles where costs were cut, which included actively allowing fee earners to depart the operations, a position from which it would subsequently struggle to recover. This self-inflicted course of action is now consigned to the past and the new management is rapidly making progress.

Ytd revenue up 5.4%, reflecting market share gains

Foxtons’ Q323 trading update highlighted progress against its turnaround plan, with market outperformance and market share gains in all three divisions. For 9M23, the company grew total revenue by 5% to £114.8m, while revenue grew marginally to £43.9m in Q3 against a robust prior year comparator. The CEO commented that this is the third consecutive quarter of outperformance, highlighting the ongoing investment in fee earners, staff training, data suites and the Foxtons brand. The latter is evidenced by Foxtons regaining the title of being London’s largest estate agency brand after it gained significant market share.

In Lettings, revenue grew by 18.4% to £81.3m in 9M23 and by 8.2% or £2.4m in Q3. This included £0.5m of organic growth (flat volumes, modest rental growth), £0.6m of incremental growth from the acquisition of Atkinson McLeod in March 2023 and £1.3m from interest earned on c £120m of customer deposits. While interest rates remain at elevated levels, this income is a useful offset versus other inflationary pressures in the business.

Exhibit 1: 9M23 and Q323 revenue and growth rates by division and group

£m	9M19	9M20	9M21	9M22	9M23	Ytd FY23 vs ytd FY19	Ytd FY23 vs ytd FY20	Ytd FY23 vs ytd FY21	Ytd FY23 vs ytd FY22
Revenue
Lettings	53.7	45.2	57.7	68.6	81.3	51.5%	80.1%	41.0%	18.4%
Sales	23.8	18.0	33.5	32.7	26.9	12.7%	49.3%	(19.9%)	(17.7%)
Financial Services	6.0	5.8	7.2	7.6	6.6	9.6%	14.3%	(7.9%)	(12.2%)
Total revenue	83.5	69.0	98.4	108.9	114.8	37.4%	66.5%	16.7%	5.4%
	Q319	Q320	Q321	Q322	Q323	Q323 vs Q319	Q323 vs Q320	Q323 vs Q321	Q323 vs Q322
Revenue
Lettings	21.3	19.5	24.8	29.2	31.6	48.5%	62.1%	27.6%	8.2%
Sales	8.4	6.9	8.3	11.9	9.9	18.5%	43.5%	19.8%	(16.8%)
Financial Services	2.1	2.2	2.0	2.8	2.4	15.2%	9.1%	19.8%	(12.8%)
Total revenue	31.7	28.6	35.0	43.8	43.9	38.4%	53.5%	25.3%	0.3%

Source: Foxtons, Edison Investment Research

In 9M23, revenue from Sales declined by 17.7% to £26.9m in weak markets. However, in Q3 revenue declined slightly less, by 16.8% to £9.9m, which should be viewed against a market that saw a 23% reduction in exchange volumes. Overall, property values declined 5%, but Foxtons’ average exchange price remained flat as it gained market share in higher-value properties. Reflecting operational improvements, viewings increased by 6% in Q3, while ‘under-offer’ volumes declined by only 4% despite market weakness due to the 2022 comparator, which was affected by the infamous mini-budget.

In Financial Services, revenue fell 12.2% to £6.6m in 9M23 and by 12.8% to £2.4m in Q3, reflecting lower new mortgage volumes as sales fell away. It also saw an increased proportion of lower-margin transfer mortgages (within a lender) as opposed to higher-margin remortgages to alternative lenders. That said, Foxtons again outperformed the market, reflecting its investment in fee earners.

Another acquisition bolsters strategic pathway

On 7 November 2023 Foxtons announced its latest acquisition of an estate agency, which follows a series of other deals since the start of 2020. In this move, Foxtons agreed to buy Ludlow Thompson from its founders for a total consideration of £10.0m in cash. Ludlow Thompson is described as a ‘high-quality lettings focused’ estate agency operating from a seven-branch network in predominantly Docklands, the City and South London. In the year to December 2022, the business generated revenue of £7.3m and profit before tax of £0.1m, implying a historical sales multiple of 1.4x. The multiple is in line with the average paid over the last four years, reflecting the c 70% of revenue generated from Lettings and the fact that Foxtons will be taking on all of the branches.

The 1,700 tenancies in the portfolio bring the acquired number of tenancies since 2020 to nearly 10,000, and Foxtons’ total tenancy portfolio to c 28,200. We expect Foxtons to de-emphasise the sales activity and that the remaining c £5m of lettings revenue will generate a post amortisation profit of c £2m pa in line with targets. Given the late timing of the deal in FY23, it is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the income statement this year. However, in FY24, we believe it could add c £1.0m to £1.5m to operating profit, but at the same time it is likely to incur a similar amount of exceptional/restructuring charges before the full c £2.0m of profit is seen in FY25.

We believe that following the latest deals, Foxtons will end the current year with net debt of c £12.2m, which implies that it may ‘pause for breath’ before considering other deals in the short term. We believe that the three 2020 deals and the 2021 purchase of D&G collectively generated a return of c 34% in 2022, after synergies. Foxtons anticipates similar returns from the latest deals, shown below.

Exhibit 2: M&A activity since 1 January 2020

Target	Date	Consideration (£m)	Revenue (£m)	PBT (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	EBIT (£m)	Location	Sales multiple (x)	Tenancies acquired
London Stone	1 Mar 2020	2.0	1.5	0.7	-	-	Woolwich	1.3	687
Pillars Estates	Oct 2020	0.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	224
Aston Rowe	23 Nov 2020	2.0	1.1	0.5	-	-	Acton and Brook Green	1.8	689
2020 total		4.2	2.6	-	-	-	-	-	1,600

Douglas and Gordon	1 Mar 2021	15.3	16.5	-	0.6	-	Central, South and West	0.9	2,900
2021 total		15.3	16.5	-	-	-	-	-	2,900

Gordon and Co	May 2022	8.4	4.0	-	-	0.1	South London	2.1	2,000
Stones Residential	May 2022	2.2	1.3	-	-	-	Stanmore	1.7	500
2022 total		10.6	5.3	-	-	-	-	-	2,500

Atkinson McLeod	Mar 2023	7.4	3.1			0.9	East London	2.4	1,100
Ludlow Thompson	Nov 2023	10.0	7.3	0.1	-	-	City, Docklands, South London	1.4	1,700
		17.4	10.4						2,800

Total since 1 January 2020		47.4	34.8	-	-	-	-	1.4	9,800

Source: Foxtons Group, Edison Investment Research

Further evidence of strategic success

Exhibit 3 below highlights the divisional revenue trends. Clearly, Lettings has grown steadily in each of the last three years in contrast to Sales and Financial Services, as the underlying markets have been quite volatile driven by outside influences. Despite the fact that both Sales and Financial Services declined year to date compared with FY22, it should be noted that the revenues of both divisions are comfortably higher than they were in 2019, which, arguably, reflects the active investment in fee earners, staff training, data suites and the Foxtons brand, especially in the most recent difficult period.

Exhibit 3: 9M revenue by division, last five years

Source: Foxtons

Exhibit 4 below shows the growth rates of the three divisions in Q323 versus the same period in 2019 and in 9M23 versus 9M19. While Lettings has shown consistently strong growth in both periods, at least partly driven by M&A, it is interesting to note that revenue grew faster in both Sales and Financial Services in Q3 versus the nine-month period, suggesting at least some acceleration in performance as a result of the management initiatives mentioned above.

Exhibit 4: Divisional growth rates – Q323 and 9M23 versus Q319 and 9M19

Revenue growth	Q323 versus Q319	9M23 versus 9M19
Lettings	48.5%	51.5%
Sales	18.5%	12.7%
Financial Services	15.2%	9.6%
Total revenue	38.4%	37.4%

Source: Foxtons, Edison Investment Research

FY23e operating profit unchanged, FY24e raised c 8%

Given the trading patterns this year, we have raised FY23 revenue estimates from £137.8m to £145.1m (see Exhibit 5) driven by better-than-expected trading in Lettings. However, we have retained the operating profit estimate at £11.9m as costs have risen.

Exhibit 5: Revenue, actual and estimated

£m	Q123	Q223	Q323	9M23	Q423e	FY23e
Lettings	22.8	27.0	31.6	81.4	20.2	101.6
Sales	8.1	8.8	9.9	26.8	8.0	34.9
Financial Services	2.0	2.2	2.4	6.6	2.0	8.6
Total revenue	32.9	38.0	43.9	114.8	30.2	145.1
Growth rate	10.0%	8.2%	0.1%	5.4%	(3.7%)	3.4%

Source: Foxtons, Edison Investment Research

In FY24, and excluding the Ludlow Thompson acquisition, the higher base year in FY23 feeds through to an increase in revenue, from £146.6m to £152.6m, but we have pared back operating profit from £16.1m to £15.5m to reflect higher underlying costs due to inflationary pressures and the cost of the strategic initiatives. We then add c £5m of revenue to FY24 to reflect the latest M&A, and raise the underlying operating profit from £15.5m to £17.4m, which implies c 8% growth. PBT, EPS (company definition) and DPS register a healthy increase. We previously anticipated net cash of c £5m at the end of FY24, but this moves to a net debt position of £3.6m post the deal.

Exhibit 6: Revised estimates

£m	FY22	FY23e (old)	FY23e (new)	Chg (%)	FY24e (old)	FY24e (new)	Chg (%)
Revenue	140.3	137.8	145.1	5.3%	146.5	157.6	7.6%
Y-o-y growth (%)	10.9%	-	3.4%	-	-	8.6%	-

Adjusted operating profit	13.9	11.9	11.9	0.1%	16.1	17.4	8.0%
Y-o-y growth (%)	55.6%	-	-14.3%	-	-	45.9%	-

Reported PBT	11.9	9.7	8.6	-11.6%	13.9	14.6	5.3%
Y-o-y growth (%)	115.1%	-	-28.2%	-	-	70.8%	-

EPS (company definition) (p)	3.0	2.4	2.4	-0.5%	3.3	3.5	6.5%
Y-o-y growth (%)	51.5%	-	-20.4%	-	-	47.2%	-

DPS (p)	0.9	0.8	0.9	12.5%	1.2	1.2	2.5%
Y-o-y growth (%)	100.0%	-	0.0%	-	-	36.7	-

Net cash/(debt) (pre-IFRS 16, ie ex-lease liabs)	12.0	(1.6)	(5.7)	256.9%	5.5	(3.6)	-165.0%
Y-o-y growth (%)	-47.9%	-	-147.5%	-	-	-37.4%	-

Source: Foxtons, Edison Investment Research

Due to the net increase in FY24 profit estimates, we have raised our ‘base’ case valuation from 59p/share to 62p and our preferred ‘bull’ case valuation is lifted from 124p/share to 127p, both indicating material upside from the current share price.

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

	£'m	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e
31-December		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue		106.9	93.6	126.5	140.3	145.1	157.6	163.9
EBITDA		13.5	15.7	25.1	27.8	26.7	31.7	34.4
Normalised operating profit		0.6	3.8	12.1	15.6	15.7	21.7	24.4
Amortisation of acquired intangibles		(0.6)	(0.8)	(1.7)	(1.6)	(1.8)	(2.4)	(2.4)
Share-based payments		(0.7)	(1.0)	(1.5)	(0.2)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)
Total adjusted operatng profit		(0.7)	1.9	8.9	13.9	11.9	17.4	20.0
Exceptionals		(5.7)	(1.1)	(1.4)	(0.1)	(1.1)	0.0	0.0
Reported operating profit		(6.3)	0.8	7.6	13.8	10.8	17.4	20.0
Net Interest		(2.4)	(2.2)	(2.0)	(1.9)	(2.2)	(2.7)	(2.5)
Exceptionals		(0.1)	(0.0)	(0.0)	(0.0)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Profit Before Tax (norm)		(1.9)	1.6	10.0	13.7	13.5	19.0	21.9
Profit Before Tax (reported)		(8.8)	(1.4)	5.6	11.9	8.6	14.6	17.6
Reported tax		1.0	(1.8)	(6.9)	(2.4)	(2.0)	(3.7)	(4.4)
Discontinued operations		0.0	0.0	(4.8)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net income (normalised)		(0.9)	(0.2)	(1.7)	11.4	11.5	15.3	17.5
Net income (reported)		(7.8)	(3.2)	(6.2)	9.6	6.6	11.0	13.2

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)		275	314	324	308	308	308	308
EPS - basic normalised (p)		(0.32)	(0.08)	(0.52)	3.69	3.72	4.98	5.69
EPS - basic reported (p)		(2.83)	(1.02)	(1.90)	3.11	2.13	3.57	4.28
EPS - Continuing, diluted, and adjusted. Company definition		(1.06)	(0.16)	1.98	3.00	2.39	3.52	4.22
Dividend (p)		0.00	0.00	0.45	0.90	0.90	1.23	1.48

Revenue growth (%)		(-4.1)	(-12.5)	35.2	10.9	3.4	8.6	4.0
EBITDA Margin (%)		12.6	16.8	19.9	19.8	18.4	20.1	21.0
Normalised Operating Margin		0.5	4.1	9.5	11.1	10.8	13.8	14.9

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		178.7	173.4	184.4	191.7	195.9	189.5	181.7
Intangible Assets		101.0	103.5	107.3	109.3	110.4	111.5	112.6
Goodwill		9.3	11.4	17.7	26.1	26.1	26.1	26.1
Tangible Assets		13.0	10.5	9.7	10.7	24.8	27.4	28.5
Right of use assets		51.4	44.4	43.8	42.6	31.6	21.6	11.6
Contract assets		0.6	0.4	0.9	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7
Investments & other		3.3	3.1	5.1	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2
Current Assets		30.2	52.6	39.3	34.5	25.4	34.4	45.1
Contract assets		1.0	1.7	3.7	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.7
Debtors		13.4	13.9	16.0	16.0	24.7	31.5	32.8
Cash & cash equivalents		15.5	37.0	19.4	12.0	(5.7)	(3.6)	5.9
Other		0.3	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Current Liabilities		(27.9)	(29.2)	(31.9)	(38.7)	(37.9)	(39.2)	(39.9)
Creditors		(10.5)	(10.3)	(14.5)	(16.7)	(16.0)	(17.3)	(18.0)
Lease liabilities		(9.7)	(10.8)	(8.8)	(10.7)	(10.7)	(10.7)	(10.7)
Contract liabilities		(6.3)	(7.7)	(8.2)	(9.7)	(9.7)	(9.7)	(9.7)
Other		(1.4)	(0.4)	(0.3)	(1.5)	(1.5)	(1.4)	(1.4)
Long Term Liabilities		(65.2)	(62.4)	(68.4)	(64.9)	(54.1)	(43.8)	(33.3)
Lease liabilities		(46.2)	(40.7)	(39.3)	(35.8)	(25.0)	(14.7)	(4.2)
Contract liabilities		(1.3)	(1.1)	(1.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)

Other long term liabilities		(17.8)	(20.6)	(28.0)	(28.8)	(28.8)	(28.8)	(28.8)
Shareholders' equity		115.8	134.5	123.5	122.7	129.3	140.8	153.6

CASH FLOW
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax		(2.6)	4.3	6.6	15.0	12.6	19.7	22.4
Depreciation - Right of use assets		9.8	9.4	10.6	12.2	11.0	10.0	10.0
Impairment of goodwill		0.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Branch asset impairment		4.3	1.7	1.1	(0.3)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Gain on disposal of PPE etc		(0.4)	(0.5)	(1.4)	(0.3)	(0.5)	(0.5)	(0.5)
Working capital		(2.6)	(0.6)	1.7	(1.2)	(9.4)	(5.5)	(0.6)
Decrease in provisions		0.8	(0.8)	0.2	1.1	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.0)
Share based payment charges		0.7	1.0	1.5	0.2	2.0	2.0	2.0
Cash settlement of share incentive plan		(0.4)	0.0	0.0	(0.0)	(0.5)	(0.5)	(0.5)
Tax		0.2	0.2	(0.2)	(2.7)	(2.0)	(3.7)	(4.4)
Net operating cash flow		9.8	14.7	23.5	23.9	12.2	20.6	27.4
Capex		(0.3)	(0.4)	(1.7)	(2.9)	(0.4)	(0.4)	(0.4)
Acquisitions/disposals		(0.2)	(3.9)	(14.5)	(9.6)	(13.8)	(2.3)	(0.8)
Dividends and net interest		0.0	0.0	(0.6)	(1.4)	(2.8)	(2.8)	(3.8)
Repayment of lease liabilities		(12.0)	(10.0)	(15.2)	(12.7)	(13.0)	(13.0)	(13.0)
Purchase of own shares		(0.1)	(0.3)	(5.7)	(4.9)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)
Net proceeds from issue of ord. Shares		0.0	21.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other		0.3	0.3	0.3	(3.4)	0.3	0.3	0.3
Net Cash Flow		(2.4)	21.5	(13.9)	(11.1)	(17.7)	2.1	9.5
Opening net debt/(cash)		(17.9)	(15.5)	(37.0)	(23.1)	(12.0)	5.7	3.6
Closing net debt/(cash) (ex lease liabilities)		(15.5)	(37.0)	(23.1)	(12.0)	5.7	3.6	(5.9)

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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