SNP Schneider-Neureither
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Raising €29m (net) funds for growth |
Capital raising |
Software & comp services |
27 June 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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SNP is raising €31m (gross) in a rights issue of new ordinary shares. The new money will fund both organic growth as well as the group’s acquisition strategy. SNP has been experiencing strong demand for its products and services, particularly in the German and US markets, and earlier this year it significantly expanded its operations in Asia, via the acquisitions of Astrums and Hartung Consult. Headcount is expected to rise towards 700 by year end and there is no sign that the activity is slowing. Indeed, on 19 May the group received another major order for transformation software from a German industrial group. Hence, we continue to believe the shares are attractive on c 16x FY18e earnings.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
30.5 |
(0.1) |
(13.9) |
13.0 |
N/A |
0.4 |
12/15 |
56.2 |
3.4 |
58.8 |
34.0 |
46.3 |
1.1 |
12/16e |
75.2 |
6.9 |
106.5 |
40.0 |
25.5 |
1.3 |
12/17e |
88.4 |
9.6 |
130.1 |
50.0 |
20.9 |
1.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Capital increase
SNP is issuing one new share at €25 for every three existing shares, and the entitlement rights can be traded. The subscription period runs from 16 June 2016 to 29 June 2016. Management and employees have endeavoured to subscribe to new shares for a total of €4.77m. Shares that have not been subscribed for as part of the offer for subscription are to be offered to selected investors outside of the US. The rights issue has not been underwritten.
Brexit risks are very small
Total group revenues in the UK in FY15 were €1.064m, or 1.9% of revenues, which entirely reflects revenue generated through SNPs system integrator partners. This revenue level is before the Asia acquisitions of Astrums and Hartungs, which we are forecasting will add €10m to group revenues in FY16. Hence on a proforma basis (also considering two minor acquisitions), the sensitivity falls to c 1.4%.
Forecasts: Only adjusted for the rights issue
We have maintained our forecasts but have adjusted EPS for the dilution impact of the rights issue and of the capital raising on the balance sheet. We have not adjusted historical EPS/DPS for the rights issue. While there is dilution, the funds put the group in a much stronger position to exploit growth opportunities.
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
We have maintained all our forecasts although adjusted EPS for the dilution impact of the rights issue. The stock trades on c 26x our FY16e EPS, falling to c 21x in FY17e and to c 16x in FY18e. We believe the ratings continue to look attractive given the forecast strong growth and continued margin recovery potential.
Forecasts
We have maintained our revenue and profits forecasts. However, our EPS forecasts fall back for the dilution impact of the rights issue, (which we assume is fully subscribed), while the net cash position is boosted by the net funds raised. We have not reduced the interest cost given the low interest rates on deposits, and note that our €775k interest cost forecast largely relates to the outstanding public bond issue (which pays an annual coupon of €625k). Given the comfortable coverage we have maintained our dividend forecasts, despite the dilution.
Exhibit 1: Forecast changes
EBITDA |
EPS |
Net debt/(cash) |
|||||||
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
|
2016e |
9.1 |
9.1 |
0 |
124.1 |
106.5 |
(14) |
3.5 |
(26.3) |
N/A |
2017e |
11.8 |
11.8 |
0 |
173.2 |
130.1 |
(25) |
(1.2) |
(30.7) |
N/A |
2018e |
14.9 |
14.9 |
0 |
226.2 |
169.9 |
(25) |
(2.9) |
(31.9) |
N/A |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
75,179 |
88,387 |
100,047 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
75,179 |
88,387 |
100,047 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,972) |
862 |
5,484 |
9,077 |
11,804 |
14,917 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
(2,714) |
(66) |
4,222 |
7,724 |
10,377 |
13,234 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
1,505 |
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
0 |
0 |
(3) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(2,714) |
1,439 |
4,575 |
7,724 |
10,377 |
13,234 |
||
Net Interest |
(85) |
(66) |
(828) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(2,799) |
(132) |
3,394 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(2,799) |
1,373 |
3,747 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Tax |
477 |
(344) |
(1,195) |
(2,085) |
(2,880) |
(3,738) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,322) |
(477) |
2,198 |
4,864 |
6,721 |
8,721 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(2,322) |
1,028 |
2,552 |
4,864 |
6,721 |
8,721 |
||
Minority interest |
(84) |
(40) |
0 |
(225) |
(248) |
(267) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
(2,405) |
(517) |
2,198 |
4,639 |
6,474 |
8,454 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
(2,405) |
988 |
2,552 |
4,639 |
6,474 |
8,454 |
||
Average No of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
106.5 |
130.1 |
169.9 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
106.5 |
130.1 |
169.9 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
26.6 |
68.3 |
106.5 |
130.1 |
169.9 |
Dividend per share (c) |
8.00 |
13.00 |
34.00 |
40.00 |
50.00 |
60.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-8.4 |
2.8 |
9.8 |
12.1 |
13.4 |
14.9 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
-11.5 |
-0.2 |
7.5 |
10.3 |
11.7 |
13.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
7,759 |
8,291 |
15,243 |
25,394 |
25,734 |
26,052 |
Intangible Assets |
5,194 |
5,190 |
11,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,070 |
1,231 |
1,999 |
2,149 |
2,489 |
2,807 |
||
Other |
1,496 |
1,871 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
16,145 |
17,882 |
29,996 |
62,888 |
71,054 |
75,553 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
9,105 |
11,286 |
16,084 |
21,502 |
25,280 |
28,615 |
||
Cash |
6,355 |
5,681 |
13,769 |
41,243 |
45,631 |
46,796 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(5,804) |
(9,782) |
(13,703) |
(18,925) |
(22,387) |
(25,333) |
Creditors |
(5,204) |
(9,182) |
(11,101) |
(16,323) |
(19,785) |
(22,731) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(600) |
(600) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4,338) |
(2,501) |
(15,513) |
(20,013) |
(20,013) |
(15,513) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,250) |
(1,650) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,088) |
(851) |
(3,169) |
(7,669) |
(7,669) |
(3,169) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
13,762 |
13,890 |
16,024 |
49,344 |
54,388 |
60,759 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(2,110) |
2,579 |
1,879 |
8,701 |
11,362 |
14,417 |
Net Interest |
4 |
(66) |
(167) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Tax |
(1,062) |
(1,102) |
(554) |
(1,946) |
(2,688) |
(3,488) |
||
Capex |
(230) |
(701) |
(1,779) |
(1,504) |
(1,768) |
(2,001) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2,267) |
(500) |
(3,228) |
(5,500) |
0 |
(4,500) |
||
Shares issued |
(35) |
0 |
0 |
29,768 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(937) |
(335) |
(483) |
(1,271) |
(1,743) |
(2,488) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(6,638) |
(124) |
(4,332) |
27,474 |
4,388 |
1,164 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,152) |
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(26,298) |
(30,686) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(10) |
51 |
(275) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(26,298) |
(30,686) |
(31,850) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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