abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust — Resilient NAV and stable balance sheet

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abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust — Resilient NAV and stable balance sheet

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust (APEO) posted a 12-month NAV TR of 5.1% to end-September 2023 amid persistently muted exit activity across PE markets and FX headwinds from stronger sterling. APEO’s drawdowns continue to outpace distributions, but the 12-month net capital calls were more than offset by the proceeds APEO received from the partial sale of its co-investment in non-food discount retailer Action. As a result, APEO’s balance sheet headroom, as measured by its commitment coverage ratio, remained broadly stable versus end-2022. Its discount to NAV of 44% is wider than its 10-year average of 23% and the c 10% average discount for buyout portfolios traded in the secondary markets in H123.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Investment Companies

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust

Resilient NAV and stable balance sheet

Investment trusts
Private equity

25 October 2023

Price

428.0p

Market cap

£658m

NAV*

£1,183m

NAV per share*

769.4p

Discount to NAV

44.4%

Yield

3.6%

Ordinary shares in issue

153.7m

Code/ISIN

APEO/GB0030474687

Primary exchange

LSE

52-week high/low

494.0p

401.0p

769.4p

728.5p

*As at end-September 2023.

Gearing

Net gearing at end-September 2023

7.9%

Fund objective

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust’s investment objective is to achieve long-term total returns through holding a diversified portfolio of private equity funds and direct investments into private companies alongside private equity managers (co-investments), a majority of which will have a European focus.

Bull points

Focus on strong relationships with top-performing European private equity managers.

High exposure to less cyclical sectors.

Available at a wider discount to NAV than the historical average.

Bear points

Macroeconomic uncertainty and lower debt availability are curbing global M&A volumes (and in turn private equity exit activity).

Interest rate normalisation may reduce prospective private equity returns, put pressure on interest coverage and/or lead to refinancing issues across private equity-backed companies.

APEO’s manager expects capital calls to outpace distributions in the near term.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5720

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust (APEO) posted a 12-month NAV TR of 5.1% to end-September 2023 amid persistently muted exit activity across PE markets and FX headwinds from stronger sterling. APEO’s drawdowns continue to outpace distributions, but the 12-month net capital calls were more than offset by the proceeds APEO received from the partial sale of its co-investment in non-food discount retailer Action. As a result, APEO’s balance sheet headroom, as measured by its commitment coverage ratio, remained broadly stable versus end-2022. Its discount to NAV of 44% is wider than its 10-year average of 23% and the c 10% average discount for buyout portfolios traded in the secondary markets in H123.

APEO’s discount to NAV remains significantly above historical average

Source: Refinitiv

Mid-market private equity remains attractive

While interest rate normalisation may somewhat dilute gross internal rates of return across the PE sector, the industry has moved away from pure financial engineering towards a greater emphasis on driving operational change (based on in-house value creation teams) and value-accretive, bolt-on M&A activity. In particular, the PE mid-market (which APEO focuses on) offers several potential advantages: (1) many of the acquired companies have not been owned by PE before and are low-hanging fruit in terms of value creation; (2) portfolio exits are less dependent on the IPO market (with more trade sale and sponsor-to-sponsor opportunities); and (3) deals are less reliant on funding via syndicated loans (which has been muted recently) and also often involve less leverage versus large/mega buyouts.

High-conviction strategy delivering solid returns

APEO offers quality exposure to the PE mid-market through a portfolio of investments managed by carefully selected, top-tier European general partners (GPs) with solid sector expertise (the 12 ‘core’ GPs make up 55% of APEO’s NAV). This high-conviction strategy has proved successful over the mid to long term with APEO’s five- and 10-year NAV TR to end-September 2023 at c 15% pa, ahead of both the MSCI Europe Small Cap Index and the UK All-Share Index, and broadly in line with its close PE peers. Moreover, its combined 52% exposure to less cyclical sectors such as technology (typically profitable B2B software), healthcare and consumer staples, together with the wide discount to NAV, may offer some downside protection in the current environment.

APEO’s returns remain competitive vs public markets

APEO’s one-year NAV total return (TR) to end-September 2023 (based on monthly NAV estimates rather than final audited NAV) reached 5.1%, compared to the MSCI Europe Small Cap Index’s 13.3% and the UK All-Share Index’s 13.8%. While the more moderate return is likely due to a muted M&A environment (limiting the contribution from exit uplifts to NAV TR), we also note that the 12-month performance is calculated from end-September 2022, which for public equity markets was close to the local trough following the sell-off throughout most of 2022 (this is also reflected in APEO’s 12-month share price TR to end-September of 11.7%). Meanwhile, APEO’s NAV remained resilient overall (its FY22 NAV TR was 14.1%), hence its subsequent performance did not benefit from the low base effect. We also note that APEO’s performance included some FX headwinds from the strengthening of sterling against the US dollar and euro. We note that all of APEO’s private portfolio valuations (except for new investments) are now based on end-June 2023 values.

The above return allowed APEO to significantly outperform the above-mentioned public indices over three, five and 10 years, with its 10-year NAV TR at 15.0% pa compared to 9.4% and 6.3% pa for the MSCI Europe Small Cap Index and the UK All-Share Index, respectively (see Exhibit 1). APEO also performed broadly in line with its listed private equity (PE) peers (see Exhibit 3), slightly outperforming the peer average and ranking second over 10 years and being marginally below the peer average over five years (ranking third).

Exhibit 1: APEO’s performance to 30 September 2023 in sterling terms

Price, NAV and benchmark total return performance, one-year rebased

Price, NAV and benchmark total return performance (%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Three-, five- and 10-year performance figures annualised.

Exhibit 2: APEO’s discrete performance versus selected indices in total return, sterling terms (%)

12 months ending

APEO’s NAV

APEO’s share price

MSCI Europe Small Cap Index

UK All-Share Index

30/09/19

10.6

5.7

(2.0)

2.7

30/09/20

11.7

(4.6)

3.1

(16.6)

30/09/21

38.1

60.6

31.3

27.9

30/09/22

13.2

(15.1)

(25.0)

(4.0)

30/09/23

5.1

11.7

13.3

13.8

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Selected peer group at 30 September 2023*

% unless stated

Market cap £m

NAV TR
1 year

NAV TR
3 year

NAV TR
5 year

NAV TR
10 year

Ongoing charges ratio (%)**

Perf
fee

Discount
(cum-fair)

Net
gearing

Dividend
yield

Abrdn Private Equity Opp Trust

658

5.1

64.4

103.2

305.8

1.1

No

(44.4)

107.9

3.6

CT Private Equity Trust

317

7.5

96.2

128.4

275.2

1.2

Yes

(36.1)

111.9

6.3

HarbourVest Global Private Equity

1,669

(4.3)

83.3

129.8

401.3

1.2

No***

(47.3)

100.0

0.0

ICG Enterprise Trust

762

4.1

77.3

102.8

238.3

1.5

Yes

(40.7)

108.4

2.7

Pantheon International

1,398

(4.4)

56.5

83.6

266.9

1.3

Yes

(37.9)

100.0

0.0

Simple average

1,037

0.7

78.3

111.2

295.4

1.3

-

(40.5)

105.1

2.3

APEO’s rank in peer group

4

2

4

3

2

5

-

4

3

2

Source: Morningstar, Edison Investment Research. Note: Net gearing is total assets less cash and equivalents as a percentage of net assets. *NAV performance in sterling terms based on end-September 2023 NAV, or latest earlier available NAV (end-June 2023 for CT Private Equity Trust and end-July 2023 for ICG Enterprise Trust). **Excluding other expenses charged by the underlying investments held in the portfolio. ***No performance fee is charged at the HVPE level, but it is charged on the HarbourVest secondary and direct funds.

Listed PE traded at a much wider discount than recent PE secondaries’ pricing

Listed PE companies continue to trade at wide discounts to NAV, currently at 44% for APEO (vs its 10-year average of c 23%) and c 40% for its peers. This likely reflects investor concerns in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around: (1) PE valuations; (2) holding-level liquidity given the muted exit environment; and (3) leverage across portfolio companies. We discussed these points in detail in our listed private equity report published earlier this year.

LP buyout portfolios traded on average at a 10% discount to NAV in H123

We note that limited partner (LP) buyout portfolios were traded on average at 90% their NAV (ie only a c 10% discount to NAV, significantly below the current listed PE discounts) in H123 in the secondary market, according to the latest Global Secondary Market Review by Jefferies. This represents a price increase from 84% of NAV in H222 (pricing at the last peak in 2021 was 97%). We acknowledge that these secondary market prices do not reflect any significant volumes of distressed selling. They were likely aided by recovering public markets, which supported private valuations, but also reduced the pressure on LPs coming from the so-called denominator effect (the increase in percentage allocation to private markets due to declining value of listed assets). Another contributing factor was that investors in GP-led transactions prioritised highest-quality assets, according to Jefferies. Finally, a significant number of PE funds focused specifically on the secondary market have been launched recently, boosting the demand side of the market. Jefferies estimates that the ratio of available capital to last 12-month secondary volume increased to 2.3x from 2.1x at end-2022.

That said, APEO’s current discount to NAV is even wider than the 27% discount paid in H123 for very old vintages (2012 or older) across different strategies (buyout, credit, real estate and venture). We note that in contrast, APEO’s vintage profile is quite balanced with 21% of the portfolio aged more than five years, while c 53% is aged three years or less. APEO’s manager said during the interim results call that he could potentially look at opportunistic sales of some of its LP investments if secondary pricing tightens further.

Here, we note the recent partial sale of APEO’s co-investment in Action (see below for details), at a price equating to 100% of the end-June 2023 valuation. Another relevant secondary transaction from the broader listed PE market would be HgCapital Trust (managed by Hg, one of APEO’s ‘core’ GPs), which earlier this year agreed the partial secondary sale of its LP interest in Hg Genesis 8, a 2017 vintage mid-market fund focused on buyouts with an enterprise value between £250m and £1.0bn, in which APEO also holds a position. The LP interest was priced at 100% of end-December 2022 NAV, with proceeds to be paid in two instalments on 31 March 2024 and 31 March 2025.

APEO’s average uplift upon exits maintained at close to 25% in 9M23

We note that high-quality PE managers tend to value their holdings conservatively, and consistently delivered an uplift upon exit to previous fair values (in many cases over the last 10 years or longer). In the case of APEO, the average uplift on distributions between end-September 2022 and end-June 2023 was 23% to fair value two quarters prior to exit (consistent with APEO’s average long-term historical uplift of c 25%).

Balance sheet headroom retained despite continued net capital calls

We believe that one of the main potential factors that can contribute to listed PE companies with a significant exposure to fund investments (such as APEO) being traded at wider discounts to NAV than secondary market deals are risks around holding-level liquidity and leverage (especially after the issues of some listed PE companies during the global financial crisis in 2008/09; see our listed private equity report for details). Given the long capital deployment cycle (these commitments are normally drawn over three to five years), it is a common practice of APEO and other listed PE companies with a significant share of primary fund investments to commit more capital than is available for deployment at a given time to facilitate a full investment level. It is also a common practice to use credit facilities to bridge any gap between the timing of realisations and new investments.

Amid the continued muted PE environment, and in line with the investment manager’s earlier expectations, APEO’s last 12-month (LTM) drawdowns to end-September 2023 of c £190.9m outpaced its distributions (£147.5m excluding Action), see Exhibit 4. We note that some of APEO’s drawdowns came from its co-investments (eg £20.6m out of £104.4m in H123 to end-March 2023), which are fully under its investment manager’s control (APEO’s usual ticket size per co-investment is c £5–12m). Co-investments represented c 21% of APEO’s portfolio at end-June 2023 and the manager aims to bring this up to c 29% by June 2025.

Exhibit 4: APEO’s drawdowns and distributions

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data, Edison Investment Research. Note: Distributions exclude the realisation proceeds from Action (see below for details).

12-month net capital calls offset by Action realisation proceeds

It is important to note that APEO’s liquidity was supported by the partial realisation of its co-investment in Action, with total proceeds of €60.6m (more than covering the LTM distribution shortfall), of which it collected €34.6m in October. That said, the investment manager highlighted during APEO’s interim results call in June that the partial realisation of Action was executed not to boost liquidity at the holding level, but primarily for portfolio rebalancing purposes. Action is still the largest underlying individual company in APEO’s portfolio, with the remaining fair value of £24.6m representing 1.9% of end-September 2023 NAV (5.1% at end-September 2022).

Commitment coverage ratio remains stable versus end-2022

APEO has secured a £300m credit facility (upsized in October 2022 from £200m) to bridge potential gaps between distributions and drawdowns. The drawn balance on this facility increased from £62.5m at end-2022 to £102.4m at end-September 2023 (which means it is 34% utilised), but APEO may pay down part of the drawn amount from the Action realisation proceeds collected in October 2023. Adjusting for the latter, we arrive at APEO’s pro forma end-September 2023 liquidity (available resources of c £40m and undrawn credit facility of £197.6m) of c £237m, which translates into a 36% commitment coverage ratio (stable vs 36% at end-2022), as well as an overcommitment ratio (outstanding commitments less cash and equivalents and undrawn credit facility to portfolio NAV) of 33% (vs 39% at end-2022); see Exhibits 5 and 6. APEO’s outstanding commitments declined in FY23 to date from £681.3m at end-September 2022 to £650.0m at end-September 2023. These should be drawn over several years and APEO’s manager considers £94.3m of these commitments unlikely to be drawn. APEO’s total liquidity also represents 5.6x the net capital calls (excess drawdowns over distributions) over the last 12 months. Consequently, we believe that the holding-level liquidity risk remains limited at present and does not justify the current discount to NAV.

Exhibit 5: APEO’s coverage ratio

Exhibit 6: APEO’s overcommitment ratio remains at the lower end of the target range

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *As at end-September 2023, adjusted for the 34.6m Action realisation proceeds collected in October.

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *As at end-September 2023, adjusted for the 34.6m Action realisation proceeds collected in October.

Exhibit 5: APEO’s coverage ratio

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *As at end-September 2023, adjusted for the 34.6m Action realisation proceeds collected in October.

Exhibit 6: APEO’s overcommitment ratio remains at the lower end of the target range

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *As at end-September 2023, adjusted for the 34.6m Action realisation proceeds collected in October.

A minor part of APEO’s discount may have also been due to investor uncertainty around potential ownership changes. On 16 October 2023, abrdn announced it had agreed to sell its European-headquartered private equity business (including APEO’s investment manager) to Nasdaq-listed Patria Investments, to use the disposal proceeds in abrdn’s core investment businesses. APEO’s board highlighted that it had received assurances from abrdn and Patria that APEO’s investment management team would remain unchanged should the transaction proceed. Moreover, abrdn confirmed that ‘appropriate arrangements will be put in place’ to maintain the existing administration and other third-party services. We note that this announcement follows abrdn’s statement in July 2023 that it had agreed to sell its US private equity and venture capital assets to HighVista Strategies.

Continued investments, though at a slower pace

APEO invested nearly £200m in FY23 (17% of opening NAV), which is down from £340.3m (33% of opening NAV) in the very active FY22. We also note that the investment volume with reference to NAV is also below the FY17–21 average of 26%. APEO made no new commitments after June 2023 but this may be at least partly due to timing of the fundraising processes of the respective PE funds APEO plans to commit to.

Around £140.8m was invested in H123 (to end-March 2023) across five primary commitments (£121.3m, with capital drawn over time), as well as deals in which APEO’s capital is drawn at closure, including two co-investments (£9.3m), two follow-ons into existing co-investments (£5.6m) and one secondary investment (£4.6m). Subsequently, it entered into three primary deals (c £50m in total). APEO made a commitment in April 2023 to Seidler Equity Partners VIII, focused on the North American lower mid-market, in particular branded consumer products, business services and specialty manufacturing. Moreover, it made two commitments in May 2023 to Montefiore VI and Montefiore Expansion I, which focus on the French services sector, in particular B2B services, digital and IT services, B2C healthcare services, as well as tourism and leisure. Finally, APEO committed €9.0m in June to a continuation vehicle involving HRworks, a provider of Human Capital Management software to SMEs in the DACH region.

Maintaining its progressive dividend policy

The board remains confident in APEO’s liquidity and continues to pursue a progressive dividend policy. APEO’s three interim dividends for FY23 are 4.0p each (the first two already paid and the third one declared), representing a c 11% y-o-y increase. The board highlighted that, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, its intention is to pay a fourth interim dividend of 4.0p as well. Assuming a total annual distribution of 16.0p per share, APEO’s shares now offer a dividend yield of c 3.7%.

Exhibit 7: APEO’s track record of progressive dividend payments

Source: abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust data. Note: *APEO paid two interim dividends of 4.0p each and declared a further 4.0p dividend. The board aims at a fourth interim payment of 4.0p as well.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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United Kingdom

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Research: Healthcare

Actinogen Medical — Taking steps to mitigate funding headwinds

Actinogen is refining the design of its XanaMIA Phase IIb study of lead candidate Xanamem in patients with cognitive impairment (CI) associated with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The study will forego the 5mg dose group and will concentrate on the 10mg dose, which has already shown effectiveness in the subgroup analysis of XanADu as reported in Q422. The XanaMIA Phase IIb study will continue to assess c 110 AD patients in the 10mg dose cohort, as well as a placebo arm, and will concentrate on Australian test sites for the first 100 enrolled patients. These measures are expected to significantly reduce study costs, as Actinogen expects c A$30m in cost savings between now and June 2025 compared to its initial plan. Given that US sites may not begin recruitment for another c 12–18 months, we are pushing back our projection for study completion until CY26 (from H2 CY25 previously) and our timeline for potential Xanamem commercialisation in AD to CY29 (from CY28 previously). In September, Actinogen completed a A$10m rights offering and we now expect the company to be funded into Q424 (Q2 CY24). We determine a new risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of A$528m, versus A$645m previously.

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Actinogen Medical

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