Wheaton Precious Metals — Refining forecasts

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Refining forecasts

Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q123 results are scheduled for 4 May. Ahead of their release, we have refined our forecasts to reflect, principally, a hiatus in mining the high-grade Pampacancha pit at Constancia, owing to regional road blockades (announced by Hudbay, on 30 March) and the suspension of production from the lower levels of the Stillwater West mine by Sibanye-Stillwater for around four weeks, following damage to shaft infrastructure during non-routine maintenance (announced on 13 March). We have also updated our estimates for actual cf forecast, precious metals prices.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Wheaton-Precious-Metals_resized

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals

Refining forecasts

Q123 results preview

Metals and mining

20 April 2023

Price

C$67.85

Market cap

C$30,690m

C$1.3379/US$, US$1.2453/£

Cash (US$m) at end-December
(excluding US$2.0m in lease liabilities)

696.1

Shares in issue

452.3m

Free float

100.0%

Code

WPM

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

LSE, NYSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.5

9.3

3.4

Rel (local)

(0.2)

7.5

10.1

52-week high/low

C$69.64

C$39.11

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is the world’s pre-eminent ostensibly precious metals streaming company, with over 30 high-quality precious metals streams and early deposit agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and Colombia.

Next events

Q123 results

4 May 2023

Q223 results

10 August 2023

Q323 results

9 November 2023

Q423/FY23 results

March 2024

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q123 results are scheduled for 4 May. Ahead of their release, we have refined our forecasts to reflect, principally, a hiatus in mining the high-grade Pampacancha pit at Constancia, owing to regional road blockades (announced by Hudbay, on 30 March) and the suspension of production from the lower levels of the Stillwater West mine by Sibanye-Stillwater for around four weeks, following damage to shaft infrastructure during non-routine maintenance (announced on 13 March). We have also updated our estimates for actual cf forecast, precious metals prices.

Year end

Revenue
(US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

1,201.7

592.1

132

57

38.4

1.1

12/22

1,065.1

497.7

112

60

45.3

1.2

12/23e

1,142.9

576.5

131

60

38.8

1.2

12/24e

1,364.0

632.1

140

62

36.3

1.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Temporary production disruptions

Production from the Stillwater West mine (below 50 level) will be suspended until remediation is complete, resulting in c 25–30k fewer ounces of palladium and platinum production for the year. Access to the upper levels of the Stillwater West mine (above 50 level) and the Stillwater East mine have been unaffected, as have operations at East Boulder. In the meantime, mining of higher-grade ore at Pampacancha is now expected in Q223. Note: we have left our forecasts for Salobo unchanged after Vale’s Q1 production and sales report released on 18 April.

Precious metals prices continue to rise

In addition to our production refinements, we now assume that gold will remain at US$2,006/oz for the remainder of the year (cf US$1,868/oz previously), silver will remain at US$25.19/oz (cf 21.54/oz), palladium will remain at US$1,635/oz (cf US$1,462/oz) and cobalt will remain at US$15.84/lb (cf US$15.50/lb). As a consequence of our refinements, we have reduced our EPS forecast for Q123 by 6.3%, but increased it for FY23 by 13.9%.

Valuation: Cheaper than its peers 69% of the time

Using a capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-type method, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9.0% per year, our ‘terminal’ valuation of WPM in FY26 is little changed at US$53.37 (C$71.40) per share, assuming zero subsequent long-term growth in real cash flows. Alternatively, assuming no purchases of additional streams (which we think unlikely), we calculate a value per share for WPM of US$54.58, or C$73.02 or £43.83 in FY26, based on a 30.4x historical multiple of contemporary earnings. In the meantime, WPM’s shares are trading on near-term financial ratios that are lower than those of its peers on 69% of common valuation measures if Edison forecasts are used or 61% if consensus forecasts are used. If WPM’s shares were instead to trade at the average level of its peers, we calculate that its FY23 share value would be US$56.60, or C$75.73 or £45.45 (based on Edison forecasts).

Q123 and FY23 forecast update

In the light of our refinements, we have updated our FY23 quarterly forecasts for WPM as follows:

Exhibit 1: WPM FY23 forecast, by quarter*

US$000s
(unless otherwise stated)

Q123e
(prior)

Q123e

Q223e
(prior)

Q2233

Q323e
(prior)

Q323e

Q423e
(prior)

Q423e

FY23e

FY23
(prior)

Silver production (koz)

5,000

4,723

5,000

4,723

5,000

4,723

5,000

4,723

18,894

20.000

Gold production (oz)

69,371

66.014

85,746

85,746

87,149

87,149

97,005

97,005

335,914

339,271

Palladium production (koz)

3,871

3,276

3,871

3,514

3,871

3,871

3,871

3,871

14,532

15,484

Cobalt production (klb)

113

113

201

201

289

204

377

204

721

980

Silver sales (koz)

4,409

4,165

5,000

4,723

5,000

4,723

5,000

4,723

18,336

19,409

Gold sales (oz)

64,824

61,687

85,725

85,725

87,128

87,128

96,984

96,984

331,524

334,661

Palladium sales (oz)

3,298

2,791

3,856

3,500

3,856

3,856

3,856

3,856

14,002

14,865

Cobalt sales (klb)

104

104

201

201

289

204

377

204

712

971

Avg realised Ag price (US$/oz)

22.28

22.55

21.54

25.16

21.54

25.19

21.54

25.19

24.58

21.71

Avg realised Au price (US$/oz)

1,872

1,891

1,868

2,006

1,868

2,006

1,868

2,006

1,985

1,869

Avg realised Pd price (US$/oz)

1,574

1,567

1,462

1,606

1,462

1,635

1,462

1,635

1,614

1,487

Avg realised Co price (US$/lb)

18.22

18.16

15.50

15.84

15.50

15.84

15.50

15.84

16.18

15.79

Avg Ag cash cost (US$/oz)

4.97

5.00

4.93

5.12

4.93

5.12

4.94

5.13

5.10

4.94

Avg Au cash cost (US$/oz)

469

472

459

463

458

461

454

457

462

459

Avg Pd cash cost (US$/oz)

283

282

263

289

263

294

263

294

291

268

Avg Co cash cost (US$/lb)

3.28

3.27

2.79

2.85

2.79

2.85

2.79

2.85

2.91

2.84

Sales

226,672

216,843

276,584

299,664

280,571

303,291

300,349

323,062

1,142,859

1,084,176

Cost of sales

Cost of sales, excluding depletion

53,570

51,109

65,617

65,404

66,400

66,086

70,800

70,248

252,847

256,387

Depletion

48,861

46,087

61,719

59,625

64,070

60,945

70,216

65,882

232,538

244,865

Total cost of sales

102,430

97,196

127,336

125,029

130,470

127,031

141,016

136,130

485,386

501,253

Earnings from operations

124,242

119,647

149,248

174,635

150,101

176,260

159,333

186,931

657,474

582,924

Expenses and other income

– General and administrative**

19,363

21,557

17,488

18,627

17,488

17,488

17,488

17,488

75,159

71,825

– Foreign exchange (gain)/loss

0

0

– Net interest paid/(received)

1,454

1,454

1,454

1,454

1,454

1,454

1,454

1,454

5,817

5,817

– Other (income)/expense

(5,492)

-5,492

(4,756)

-4,676

(3,255)

-3,347

(2,305)

-2,575

-16,090

(15,808)

Total expenses and other income

15,325

17,520

14,186

15,405

15,686

15,595

16,637

16,366

64,886

61,834

Earnings before income taxes

108,917

102,128

135,062

159,230

134,415

160,665

142,696

170,565

592,588

521,089

Income tax expense/(recovery)

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

1,000

1,000

Marginal tax rate (%)

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

Net earnings

108,667

101,878

134,812

158,980

134,165

160,415

142,446

170,315

591,588

520,089

Average no. shares in issue (000s)

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

452,319

Basic EPS (US$)

0.240

0.225

0.298

0.351

0.297

0.355

0.315

0.377

1.31

1.15

Diluted EPS (US$)

0.239

0.224

0.297

0.350

0.295

0.353

0.314

0.375

1.30

1.15

DPS (US$)

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.60

0.60

Source: WPM accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding impairments, impairment reversals and exceptional items. **Forecasts now include stock-based compensation costs. Totals may not add up owing to rounding.

Our updated basic EPS forecast of US$1.31/share for FY23 compares with the consensus as follows:

Exhibit 2: WPM FY23 consensus EPS forecasts (US$/share), by quarter

Q123e

Q223e

Q323e

Q423e

Sum Q1–Q423e

FY23e

Edison forecasts

0.225

0.351

0.355

0.377

1.308

1.31

Mean consensus

0.28

0.29

0.31

0.32

1.20

1.18

High consensus

0.33

0.37

0.39

0.39

1.48

1.48

Low consensus

0.23

0.21

0.25

0.25

0.94

0.91

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: As at 18 April 2023.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

$000s

 

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

2025e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,096,224

1,201,665

1,065,053

1,142,859

1,363,969

1,561,629

Cost of Sales

(266,763)

(287,947)

(267,621)

(252,847)

(315,558)

(355,375)

Gross Profit

829,461

913,718

797,432

890,012

1,048,411

1,206,254

EBITDA

 

 

763,763

852,733

735,245

814,853

973,252

1,131,095

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

 

519,874

597,940

503,293

582,315

631,669

778,602

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

4,469

162,806

164,214

0

0

0

Other

387

190

7,680

16,090

0

0

Operating Profit

524,730

760,936

675,187

598,405

631,669

778,602

Net Interest

(16,715)

(5,817)

(5,586)

(5,817)

463

505

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

503,159

592,123

497,707

576,498

632,132

779,107

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

508,015

755,119

669,601

592,588

632,132

779,107

Tax

(211)

(234)

(475)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Profit After Tax (norm)

503,335

592,079

504,912

591,588

631,132

778,107

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

507,804

754,885

669,126

591,588

631,132

778,107

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

448.7

450.1

451.6

452.3

452.3

452.3

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

112

132

112

131

140

172

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

112

131

112

130

139

171

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

113

168

148

131

140

172

Dividend per share (c)

42

57

60

60

62

72

Gross Margin (%)

75.7

76.0

74.9

77.9

76.9

77.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

69.7

71.0

69.0

71.3

71.4

72.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

47.4

49.8

47.3

51.0

46.3

49.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

5,755,441

6,046,427

6,039,813

6,811,241

7,138,780

6,793,087

Intangible Assets

5,521,632

5,940,538

5,753,111

6,524,539

6,852,078

6,506,385

Tangible Assets

33,931

44,412

30,607

30,607

30,607

30,607

Investments

199,878

61,477

256,095

256,095

256,095

256,095

Current Assets

 

 

201,831

249,724

720,093

268,415

292,962

1,091,155

Stocks

3,265

12,102

13,817

2,689

3,209

3,674

Debtors

5,883

11,577

10,187

6,262

7,474

8,557

Cash

192,683

226,045

696,089

259,464

282,279

1,078,924

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(31,169)

(29,691)

(30,717)

(30,270)

(33,276)

(35,186)

Creditors

(30,396)

(28,878)

(29,899)

(29,452)

(32,458)

(34,368)

Short term borrowings

(773)

(813)

(818)

(818)

(818)

(818)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(211,532)

(16,343)

(11,514)

(11,514)

(11,514)

(11,514)

Long term borrowings

(197,864)

(2,060)

(1,152)

(1,152)

(1,152)

(1,152)

Other long term liabilities

(13,668)

(14,283)

(10,362)

(10,362)

(10,362)

(10,362)

Net Assets

 

 

5,714,571

6,250,117

6,717,675

7,037,872

7,386,951

7,837,543

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

784,843

851,686

749,429

845,549

974,526

1,131,456

Net Interest

(16,715)

(5,817)

(5,586)

(5,817)

463

505

Tax

(2,686)

(503)

34

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Capex

149,648

(404,437)

(44,750)

(1,003,966)

(669,122)

(6,800)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

22,396

7,992

10,171

0

0

0

Dividends

(167,212)

(218,052)

(237,097)

(271,391)

(282,053)

(327,515)

Net Cash Flow

770,274

230,869

472,201

(436,625)

22,815

796,645

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

774,766

5,954

(223,172)

(694,119)

(257,494)

(280,309)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(1,462)

(1,743)

(1,254)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

5,954

(223,172)

(694,119)

(257,494)

(280,309)

(1,076,954)

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Wheaton Precious Metals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Wheaton Precious Metals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Wheaton Precious Metals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Wheaton Precious Metals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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