OPAP — Q325 strength prompts forecast upgrade

OPAP (ASE: OPAP)

Last close As at 12/12/2025

EUR18.50

0.05 (0.27%)

Market capitalisation

EUR6,847m

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Research: Consumer

OPAP — Q325 strength prompts forecast upgrade

OPAP delivered a strong set of results in Q325, with broad-based operational momentum across its portfolio and continued progress in its digital transformation. OPAP was also successful in retaining the concession for the State Lotteries with a consideration in line with our estimate, and a lower minimum annual payment of €20m. OPAP’s Q325 performance prompts us to upgrade our FY25 EBITDA estimate by c 2%, with conservatism baked in given the challenging comparative from Q424. News in the coming quarters will be dominated by the proposed business combination with Allwyn.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Retail

Q325 results

15 December 2025

Price €18.50
Market cap €6,846m

Net (debt) at 30 September 2025 (excludes IFRS 16 liabilities of €28.6m)

€(167.2)m

Shares in issue

370.1m
Free float 48.2%
Code OPAP
Primary exchange ATHENS
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 7.2 0.7 24.4
52-week high/low €20.3 €14.3

Business description

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, video lottery terminals and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 51.8% stake and significant board representation.

Next events

FY25 results

March 2026

EGM for Allwyn business combination

Q126

Anticipated closing of Allwyn business combination

Q226

Analysts

Russell Pointon
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Chloe Wong
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: GGR is gross gaming revenue. EPS is normalised excluding exceptional items and share-based payments. Estimates and prospective valuation measures are for OPAP before the proposed combination.

Year end GGR (€m) EBITDA (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 2,087.7 745.3 1.17 1.85 15.9 10.0
12/24 2,296.2 827.9 1.36 1.40 13.6 7.6
12/25e 2,393.0 845.5 1.44 1.43 12.8 7.8
12/26e 2,457.3 863.6 1.50 1.49 12.3 8.1

Q325 compounded a strong Q324

OPAP’s Q325 gross gaming revenue (GGR) grew by 6.6% y-o-y, while EBITDA increased by just over 1% when adjusting for some one-off costs. Revenue growth was broad-based across its gaming verticals, apart from a c 9% y-o-y decline in online betting due to industry-wide customer-friendly results. Although there was relative weakness in online betting, with growth of c 5%, OPAP’s retail activities continued to power ahead with over 7% growth in Q325, its best growth rate this year and impressive too on top of Q324’s 11% growth. Retail growth continues to be driven by the extended jackpots for Tzoker, with a record-breaking prize in August, as well from other games (KINO and PowerSpin). We also note the improved performance by Scratch games following product enhancements. GGR growth was impressive as it compounded Q324’s strong comparative increase of c 18%, which drove an intra-year high EBITDA margin of almost 38% for the period (vs FY24’s c 36%). By period end, net debt rose slightly to c €167m, despite the outflow of over €200m for the acquisition of the remaining stake in Stoiximan.

Increasing FY25e EBITDA by c 2%

OPAP’s strong Q325 performance reinforced management’s confidence in achieving its FY25 guidance for low-single-digit GGR growth, with an EBITDA margin around 35%. The guidance, which implies negative year-on-year growth for both versus Q424, reflects management’s conservatism against a tough comparative that provided a strong positive surprise when reported. We upgrade our FY25 year-on-year GGR growth estimate to c 4%, from c 2% previously, which feeds through to a c 2% increase for EBITDA (a margin of 35.3%). Our new forecasts imply a c 2% y-o-y reduction for GGR and 5% for EBITDA versus the challenging Q424 comparative.

Valuation: Superior dividend yield to peers

Prior to the proposed combination with Allwyn, we forecast lower revenue growth than OPAP’s peers. Its higher profitability and strong balance sheet enable a more attractive dividend. Management anticipates higher growth for the combined group.

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