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Market capitalisation
USD226m
Research: Healthcare
SIGA has reported Q122 revenues of $10.5m, up 119% y-o-y, driven by the first IV TPOXX deliveries to the US government. It also achieved key milestones in its product and international expansion strategies, including EMA approval for oral TPOXX, the first TPOXX contract in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, and a Canadian contract increased by $5m. The PEP trials are making progress, with the active phase planned to complete in Q322, and the DOD announced its intent for a single-source contract for TPOXX. We raise our valuation to $9.17 per share, up from our previous $8.80.
Written by
SIGA Technologies |
Product and international expansion on track |
Q122 results |
Pharma & biotech |
9 May 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SIGA Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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SIGA has reported Q122 revenues of $10.5m, up 119% y-o-y, driven by the first IV TPOXX deliveries to the US government. It also achieved key milestones in its product and international expansion strategies, including EMA approval for oral TPOXX, the first TPOXX contract in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, and a Canadian contract increased by $5m. The PEP trials are making progress, with the active phase planned to complete in Q322, and the DOD announced its intent for a single-source contract for TPOXX. We raise our valuation to $9.17 per share, up from our previous $8.80.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA* |
PBT* |
EPS* |
P/E |
Net cash** |
12/20 |
125.0 |
88.6 |
81.5 |
80.97 |
0.1 |
117.9 |
12/21 |
133.7 |
89.7 |
89.1 |
90.61 |
0.1 |
103.1 |
12/22e |
125.0 |
63.5 |
63.0 |
65.86 |
0.1 |
71.9 |
12/23e |
121.3 |
60.5 |
60.0 |
66.16 |
0.1 |
94.9 |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalized, excluding exceptional items and other revenue and expenses. **Adjusted for special dividend in Q222e.
Q122: First IV TPOXX deliveries and special dividend
Boosted by the IV TPOXX deliveries ($7m), SIGA reported Q122 revenues of $10.5m, up 119% y-o-y. Notably, the TPOXX deliveries were the first sales of IV TPOXX under the 19c BARDA contract, indicating the progress of SIGA’s product expansion beyond oral TPOXX. SIGA also announced a special dividend of $0.45 per share payable on 2 June 2022.
Celebrating key milestones in international expansion
As we previously discussed, international expansion is a key part of SIGA’s growth strategy. Management achieved several key milestones this quarter demonstrating significant progress on that front: EMA approval for its oral TPOXX, the c $3m contract for oral TPOXX in the APAC (the first for any country in that region) and an increase of $5m in the oral TPOXX contract with the Public Health Agency of Canada to $38m, with c $13m planned for delivery in FY22.
PEP trial update and DOD single-source award
SIGA’s PEP product expansion is making progress and management is targeting patient active-phase treatments to be complete for both trials by Q322. In September 2021, the US DOD disclosed that it intends to negotiate and award a fixed-price sole-source contract to SIGA for the procurement of TPOXX. Notably, the DOD highlighted PEP’s tolerability and adverse event profile and that TPOXX was the only product that met its procurement requirements.
Valuation: $666m (ex-dividend), or $9.17 per share
We revise our SIGA valuation (ex-dividend) to $666m or $9.17 per basic share, up from $648m ($8.80 per basic share) previously. Our adjustment reflects the planned dividend, a higher cash balance and lower share count. Due to uncertain timing, our forecast uses a straight-line approach across FY22–24e for the $300m in remaining options for the BARDA contract, and assumes $103m delivered per year. We will continue to monitor the appropriations process of the government.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
2023e |
2024e |
||
Year end 31 December |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|||||
Revenue |
|
|
124,959 |
133,670 |
125,034 |
121,337 |
122,422 |
Cost of Sales |
(14,797) |
(16,602) |
(30,635) |
(30,146) |
(30,196) |
||
Gross Profit |
110,162 |
117,069 |
94,399 |
91,191 |
92,226 |
||
Research & Development |
(10,939) |
(9,942) |
(10,042) |
(10,142) |
(10,243) |
||
General & Administrative |
(14,722) |
(18,034) |
(21,404) |
(21,081) |
(21,731) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
88,579 |
89,716 |
63,475 |
60,490 |
60,774 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
84,501 |
89,093 |
62,953 |
59,968 |
60,251 |
Intangible Amortisation |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Other |
532 |
101 |
- |
- |
- |
||
Exceptionals |
(8,507) |
118 |
- |
- |
- |
||
Operating Profit |
|
|
75,993 |
89,211 |
62,953 |
59,968 |
60,251 |
Net Interest |
(3,017) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Other |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
81,484 |
89,093 |
62,953 |
59,968 |
60,251 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
72,977 |
89,211 |
62,953 |
59,968 |
60,251 |
Tax |
(17,167) |
(19,861) |
(15,109) |
(14,392) |
(14,460) |
||
Deferred tax |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
64,317 |
69,232 |
47,844 |
45,575 |
45,791 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
55,810 |
69,350 |
47,844 |
45,575 |
45,791 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
79 |
75 |
72 |
68 |
64 |
||
EPS - normalized ($), basic |
|
|
0.81 |
0.92 |
0.67 |
0.67 |
0.72 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
80.97 |
90.61 |
65.86 |
66.16 |
70.30 |
EPS - reported ($) |
|
|
0.70 |
0.92 |
0.67 |
0.67 |
0.72 |
Dividend per share ($) |
- |
- |
0.45 |
- |
- |
||
|
|
||||||
Gross Margin (%) |
88 |
88 |
75 |
75 |
75 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
71 |
67 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
68 |
67 |
50 |
49 |
49 |
||
|
|
||||||
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
6,223 |
5,973 |
7,615 |
7,666 |
7,717 |
Intangible Assets |
898 |
898 |
898 |
898 |
898 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,104 |
2,366 |
2,417 |
2,467 |
2,518 |
||
Other |
3,221 |
2,709 |
4,301 |
4,301 |
4,301 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
143,608 |
208,753 |
181,055 |
201,559 |
223,087 |
Stocks |
- |
19,510 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
||
Debtors |
3,340 |
83,650 |
76,955 |
74,459 |
75,119 |
||
Cash |
117,890 |
103,139 |
71,867 |
94,866 |
115,735 |
||
Other |
22,378 |
2,453 |
2,233 |
2,233 |
2,233 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(10,484) |
(30,488) |
(7,241) |
(6,432) |
(6,432) |
Creditors |
(1,278) |
(2,028) |
(1,778) |
(1,778) |
(1,778) |
||
Short term borrowings |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Other |
(9,205) |
(28,460) |
(5,462) |
(4,653) |
(4,653) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(9,555) |
(9,924) |
(9,569) |
(9,569) |
(9,569) |
Long term borrowings |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(9,555) |
(9,924) |
(9,569) |
(9,569) |
(9,569) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
129,793 |
174,314 |
171,860 |
193,224 |
214,803 |
Minority Interests |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Shareholder equity |
|
|
129,793 |
174,314 |
171,860 |
193,224 |
214,803 |
|
|
||||||
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
71,519 |
11,495 |
27,660 |
49,050 |
46,919 |
Net Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Tax |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Capex |
(16) |
(51) |
(51) |
(51) |
(51) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Financing |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Dividends |
- |
- |
(32,882) |
- |
- |
||
Other (including share buybacks) |
(114,600) |
(26,195) |
(26,000) |
(26,000) |
(26,000) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(43,097) |
(14,751) |
(31,272) |
23,000 |
20,869 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(80,942) |
(117,890) |
(103,139) |
(71,867) |
(94,866) |
HP finance leases initiated |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Exchange rate movements |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Other |
80,045 |
0 |
(0) |
0 |
- |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(117,890) |
(103,139) |
(71,867) |
(94,866) |
(115,735) |
Source: SIGA Technology accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
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