Immunovia continues to leverage the IMMray technology to additional opportunities with prospective trials in the group of early pancreatic cancer symptoms (PANSYM-1) due to start in the next few weeks. In diabetes patients (PANDIA-1) trials should start after the readout of a retrospective study in this population expected in Q118. Immunovia is preparing for the launch of a PanCan-d test for the early detection of pancreatic cancer in high-risk patients in 2018. Our valuation is SEK156/share.
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Immunovia |
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Business update |
Healthcare equipment & services |
7 December 2017 |
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Immunovia continues to leverage the IMMray technology to additional opportunities with prospective trials in the group of early pancreatic cancer symptoms (PANSYM-1) due to start in the next few weeks. In diabetes patients (PANDIA-1) trials should start after the readout of a retrospective study in this population expected in Q118. Immunovia is preparing for the launch of a PanCan-d test for the early detection of pancreatic cancer in high-risk patients in 2018. Our valuation is SEK156/share.
Year |
Revenue (SEKm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
17.0 |
(7.38) |
(0.65) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16 |
24.5 |
(14.72) |
(0.98) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e |
27.8 |
(17.55) |
(1.04) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
43.6 |
(30.80) |
(1.83) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptionals.
Early symptoms PANSYM-1 study due to start
Immunovia’s’s academic collaborator, the University College London (UCL) has started collecting samples from patients with early vague symptoms which is the initial part of the prospective PANSYM-1 study that will begin in the coming weeks. Immunovia’s research suggests patients with early symptoms undergo up to 18 visits and a six- to nine-month delay until pancreatic cancer is diagnosed. Hence, identifying patients with pancreatic cancer and initial vague symptoms could lead to improved diagnosis and earlier treatment. Immunovia believes the potential opportunity could be over 1m tests in the US/EU.
Preparing to address the large diabetes opportunity
Immunovia is conducting a retrospective study to compare samples from diabetes patients that developed pancreatic cancer with those who did not using the biobank of Lund University Diabetes Centre (LUDC). The results of this study, due in Q118, will support the start of the prospective PANDIA-1 study in patients over 50 years old with new onset diabetes. We believe this could be a SEK34bn opportunity per year. The collaboration with a consortium led by the NCI to validate biomarkers for early diagnosis in this population continues despite the announced budget cuts.
PanCan-d to market in 2018; new collaboration for AI
Immunovia plans to start out-of-pocket sales next year in the US and the EU once it receives the ISO 13485 and ISO 17025 certifications, obtains the CE mark and scales up production, expected later in 2018. The PANFAM-1 study for reimbursement remains on track for an interim readout after an undisclosed number of events with final results expected in 2019. We estimate US and EU sales could represent a SEK2bn opportunity. On the autoimmune (AI) front, after the results presented in H117, the company started collaborating with Linköping University to discover biomarkers to explore IMMray’s potential in AI diseases.
Valuation: rNPV of SEK156 per share
Our updated valuation is SEK156/share (previously SEK157), as a result of including end-Q317 net cash of SEK215.3m. We make no changes to our assumptions (penetration of 35% in patients at high risk of pancreatic cancer and 5% in newly diagnosed diabetic patients; total peak sales of c SEK2.1bn).
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
SEK '000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
17,007 |
24,503 |
27,803 |
43,609 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(6,611) |
||
Gross Profit |
17,007 |
24,503 |
27,803 |
36,999 |
||
Operating expenses |
(17,377) |
(24,115) |
(23,333) |
(43,333) |
||
Personnel |
(6,749) |
(14,815) |
(22,223) |
(24,005) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(7,136) |
(14,429) |
(17,753) |
(30,340) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(7,424) |
(14,978) |
(18,202) |
(31,332) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals/Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(7,424) |
(14,978) |
(18,202) |
(31,332) |
||
Net Interest |
40 |
255 |
648 |
529 |
||
Exceptionals/Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(7,384) |
(14,723) |
(17,554) |
(30,803) |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
(7,384) |
(14,723) |
(17,554) |
(30,803) |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(7,384) |
(14,723) |
(17,554) |
(30,803) |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
(7,384) |
(14,723) |
(17,554) |
(30,803) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
11.42 |
14.99 |
16.80 |
16.80 |
||
EPS - normalised (ore) |
|
|
(65) |
(98) |
(104) |
(183) |
EPS - normalised (ore) |
|
|
(65) |
(98) |
(104) |
(183) |
Dividend per share (ore) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
14,556 |
22,485 |
49,639 |
82,811 |
Intangible Assets |
13,885 |
19,483 |
46,637 |
79,809 |
||
Tangible Assets |
671 |
3,002 |
3,002 |
3,002 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
76,959 |
260,925 |
214,939 |
147,446 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
1,050 |
1,322 |
||
Debtors |
814 |
1,830 |
1,830 |
1,889 |
||
Cash |
75,767 |
259,095 |
211,763 |
143,939 |
||
Other |
378 |
0 |
296 |
296 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(7,713) |
(6,778) |
(5,500) |
(1,983) |
Creditors |
(1,252) |
0 |
0 |
(1,983) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Deferred revenues |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other short term liabilities |
(6,461) |
(6,778) |
(5,500) |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Deferred revenues |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
83,802 |
276,632 |
259,078 |
228,274 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
-2,844 |
(11,868) |
(19,729) |
(33,658) |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
-8,636 |
(30,809) |
(27,603) |
(34,166) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
55,441 |
207,233 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
18,772 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
43,961 |
183,328 |
(47,332) |
(67,824) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(31,804) |
(75,767) |
(259,095) |
(211,763) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(75,767) |
(259,095) |
(211,763) |
(143,939) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Immunovia accounts
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Research: TMT
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