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Orosur Mining — Update 18 August 2016

Orosur Mining — Update 18 August 2016

Orosur Mining

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Orosur Mining

FY16 provides confidence to boost production

FY16 results

Metals & mining

18 August 2016

Price

20.25p

Market cap

£20m

US$1.30/£

Net cash (US$m) at end May 2016

3.97

Shares in issue

98.9

Free float

86%

Code

OMI

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

AIM

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

19.1

63.6

189.3

Rel (local)

15.1

48.7

178.0

52-week high/low

20.9p

4.9p

Business description

Orosur Mining owns (100%) and operates its San Gregorio gold mine in Uruguay. It also explores for gold close to San Gregorio and further afield in Chile, at the Anillo gold property. It also owns 100% of the highly prospective, high-grade Anzá gold property in Colombia.

Next events

Interims

November 2016

Analysts

Tom Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5725

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Orosur Mining is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In a gold market providing little support over FY16, Orosur successfully returned its operations to gross profitability by undertaking a comprehensive strategic review of costs, as well as adeptly handling a number of ore streams delivered to its processing plant. With operational confidence continually building, demonstrated by a second underground mine project in development (San Gregorio West), and aided by a higher gold price, Orosur has increased production guidance for FY17. The new guidance of 35-40koz Au (FY16: 30-35koz) at cash operating costs of US$800-900/oz represents an improvement over FY16 guidance of 14% on production and 6% on costs.

Year
end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

05/15

65.9

(6.2)

(56.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

05/16

42.9

3.2

(1.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

05/17e

51.0

9.4

7.1

0.0

3.7

N/A

05/18e

55.6

12.0

9.1

0.0

2.9

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Cost reductions widespread across business

Orosur produced 35,733oz of gold for FY16, beating its upper-bound production guidance by 2% and our estimate by the same amount. Production, cash and all-in sustaining (AISC) costs were kept within guidance at US$877/oz (FY16e: US$850-950/oz) and US$1,069/oz (FY16e: US$1,000-1,100/oz).

Growth strategy to seek out partners, minimise capex

Orosur continues to investigate ways to progress its ex-Uruguayan project base. Asset Chile (AC) funded phase one exploration of the Anillo property in Chile, comprising US$850k for 21.5km of geophysics and 3.6km of RC drilling, and has afforded AC an extension to March 2017, to decide on whether to progress to phase two. Orosur intends to progress Anzá, a project that is favoured due to its high gold grades, either internally or via similar methods and we await further news regarding this in the following quarters.

Valuation: Post-Brexit cable rate has greatest effect

We adjust our financial model for the company’s FY16 results and FY17 production and cost guidance and move our valuation forward one year to FY17. We retain our gold price forecasts as per our September 2015 note Safeguarding future production. We have adjusted our FY17 capex assumption for management guidance, from US$3.5m to US$7m, and held flat our assumption for exploration expenditure at US$3m. The most significant external factor on our valuation is sterling depreciating c 8% against the greenback from 1.41 to 1.30 since our last note, published pre-Brexit in April. To incorporate all these factors, our valuation increases 19% from £0.26 to £0.31 per share. At a current spot gold price of US$1,330/oz, this becomes £0.27 per share.

Results comparison: Forecast vs actual

Exhibit 1 shows a comparison between our previous FY16 forecast and the actual FY16 results, announced by Orosur on 16 August 2016. Significantly, our forecasts at the mine level, though based on three quarters of actual data, provided for an accurate forecast of revenues and costs to year end. It should be recognised that the consistent production values realised by the company for quarters one through three allowed for an accurate estimate of end-year gold production. However, revenue as guided by the gold price continues to prove difficult to accurately forecast, with macro factors, specifically the US Federal Reserve’s regular market updates on changing the federal funds rate, a key risk to forecasting turnover.

Notable items and year-on-year changes

■

Central costs (G&A) for FY16 were US$2.2m, a material 26% lower y-o-y (FY15 G&A: US$2.9m) and a result of management implementing a broad review of corporate costs and maintaining tight cost control.

■

Impairments totalling US$4.2m relate to write-downs on certain of San Gregorio’s previously identified deposits and projects. An FY15 impairment of US$42.6m (both exploration and assets) mainly reflected the complete impairment of the company’s Pantanillo asset.

■

Restructuring costs, in part related to the above management of central costs, came in at US$1.7m compared with none for FY15. No further restructuring costs are envisaged.

■

Granting of a one year royalty exemption by the Uruguayan government in a testament to the company’s standing in the country and gives a strong vote of confidence for the way Orosur operates.

Exhibit 1: Actual vs previous FY16 forecast

US$000s

Q116

Q216

Q316

Q416e

FY16e

FY16

Delta

Gold sales (ounces)

12,471

8,172

7,274

7,083

35,000

35,773

2.2%

Average sales price (US$/oz)

1,147

1,100

1,143

1,248

1,160

1,154

-0.5%

Cash cost before taxes (US$/oz)

954

984

803

950

963

877

-9.0%

Total cash cost (US$000s)

12,031

9,115

5,841

6,729

33,716

31,373

-6.9%

Sales

14,465

10,190

8,936

8,842

42,433

42,866

1.0%

Cost of sales (excluding depreciation)

(13,201)

(8,336)

(6,809)

(7,113)

(35,459)

(36,098)

1.8%

Mine site depreciation

(1,814)

(1,814)

(1,378)

(1,378)

(6,384)

(5,975)

-6.4%

Cost of sales (including depreciation)

(15,015)

(10,150)

(8,187)

(8,491)

(41,843)

(42,073)

0.5%

Gross profit/(loss)

(550)

40

749

351

590

793

34.4%

Corporate expenses

(631)

(559)

(474)

(555)

(2,219)

(2,150)

-3.1%

Restructuring costs

(1,114)

(580)

(217)

0

(1,911)

(1,709)

-10.6%

Exploration expenses and write off

(18)

7

(3)

(5)

(19)

(351)

1747.4%

Impairment of assets

0

0

0

0

0

(4,229)

0.0%

Obsolescence provision

0

0

0

0

0

(39)

0.0%

Other net gain (losses)

571

219

3,032

400

4,222

4,527

7.2%

Income (loss) before taxes

(1,742)

(873)

3,304

191

880

(3,158)

-458.8%

Income tax recovery (loss)

16

3

(16)

0

3

1,948

64833.3%

Net income (loss) for the period

(1,726)

(870)

3,288

191

883

(1,210)

-237.0%

Basic EPS (US$)

(0.02)

(0.01)

0.03

0.00

0.01

(0.01)

Diluted EPS (US$)

(0.02)

(0.01)

0.03

0.00

0.01

(0.01)

Source: Orosur Mining accounts, Edison Investment Research


Financials

Orosur ended FY16 with net cash of US$4.0m after adjusting for Orosur’s small residual debt of US$0.3m and represents a year-on-year increase of 20% and a gearing ratio (debt/debt+equity) of 11%. The end year headline loss per share was US$0.01 compared with US$0.58 a year earlier, a material improvement, with FY15 losses relating to the large one-off impairment charge relating to the company’s old Pantanillo asset.

Capital and exploration budget revisions

We note management’s intention to manage its capital and exploration budgets for both changes in the gold price and exploration results. For the start of FY17 it currently envisages c US$7m in capital expenditures relating to plant and equipment (we assume this relates mainly to development of the SG Deeps and West underground projects) and run-of-mine sustaining capital costs.

For exploration, Orosur currently guides to US$3m in expenditures, and we anticipate this level of investment will be fully realised if the company is to manage its depleting reserve base and grow production at San Gregorio beyond the current 40koz of gold it plans to produce in FY17.

Both capital and exploration assumptions have been changed in our model for FY17. Beyond FY17 we maintain a capital expenditure forecast of US$4m per annum and for exploration US$3m per annum, the latter being the most important in terms of maintaining adequate gold reserve levels.

Orosur now effectively debt-free

Orosur is now effectively debt-free, having now completely repaid US$9m in bank loans as at end Q316. Its small debt balance of US$0.3m (short- and long-term portions) will remain as it relates to the company’s vehicle lease arrangements, which are favoured over rent or purchase due to certain tax advantages. Orosur also has an undrawn US$1.5m credit line available for use.

Cash building

Adjusting our model for the above as well as Orosur’s production and cost guidance (see front page) results in our end FY17 year net cash forecast of US$12.5m. This is based on our in-house gold price deck, which for FY17 averages US$1,337/oz, compared to a current spot value of US$1,330/oz (as of 16 August 2016).

We will look to re-address our view of Orosur’s exploration prospectivity as it releases new data for its Columbian Anzá property, due over Q117.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

US$'000s

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

31-May

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

80,370

65,868

42,866

51,000

55,608

73,321

Cost of Sales

(72,905)

(69,715)

(42,073)

(50,496)

(49,839)

(47,225)

Gross Profit

7,465

(3,847)

793

504

5,770

26,096

EBITDA

 

 

23,935

10,708

9,121

20,590

20,209

32,066

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

5,197

(5,861)

3,146

9,297

11,739

27,831

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(869)

(43,164)

(6,328)

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

4,328

(49,025)

(3,182)

9,297

11,739

27,831

Net Interest

(666)

(376)

24

79

250

451

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,531

(6,237)

3,170

9,376

11,989

28,282

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

3,662

(49,401)

(3,158)

9,376

11,989

28,282

Tax

1,461

(4,975)

1,948

(2,344)

(2,997)

(7,070)

Profit After Tax (norm)

5,123

(54,376)

(1,210)

7,032

8,992

21,211

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

5,123

(54,376)

(1,210)

7,032

8,992

21,211

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

78.1

96.6

97.6

98.9

98.9

98.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

6.6

(56.3)

(1.2)

7.1

9.1

21.4

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

6.6

(56.3)

(1.2)

7.1

9.1

21.4

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

6.6

(56.3)

(1.2)

7.1

9.1

21.4

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

9.3

-5.8

1.8

1.0

10.4

35.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

29.8

16.3

21.3

40.4

36.3

43.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

6.5

-8.9

7.3

18.2

21.1

38.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

79,278

34,992

30,661

29,368

27,898

30,663

Intangible Assets

41,955

18,330

20,555

23,555

26,555

29,555

Tangible Assets

37,323

16,662

10,106

5,813

1,343

1,108

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

28,410

20,925

18,159

19,205

29,845

48,424

Stocks

14,254

14,362

12,069

4,250

4,634

6,110

Debtors

3,338

1,775

1,770

2,118

2,310

3,045

Cash

10,818

4,788

4,320

12,837

22,901

39,269

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(17,919)

(15,073)

(11,199)

(3,835)

(4,013)

(4,146)

Creditors

(13,941)

(13,944)

(10,946)

(3,582)

(3,760)

(3,893)

Short term borrowings

(3,978)

(1,129)

(253)

(253)

(253)

(253)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,789)

(6,958)

(5,426)

(5,426)

(5,426)

(5,426)

Long term borrowings

(961)

(352)

(99)

(99)

(99)

(99)

Other long term liabilities

(5,828)

(6,606)

(5,327)

(5,327)

(5,327)

(5,327)

Net Assets

 

 

82,980

33,886

32,195

39,312

48,304

69,515

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

22,767

11,753

6,539

18,437

16,815

22,917

Net Interest

(666)

(376)

24

79

250

451

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(13,062)

(12,835)

(6,612)

(10,000)

(7,000)

(7,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

0

0

710

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

9,039

(1,458)

661

8,516

10,064

16,368

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

3,362

(5,879)

(3,307)

(3,968)

(12,485)

(22,549)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

202

(1,114)

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,879)

(3,307)

(3,968)

(12,484)

(22,549)

(38,917)

Source: Orosur Mining accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Orosur Mining and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. 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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Orosur Mining and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Mitula Group — Update 18 August 2016

Mitula Group

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