PPP assets (38%)
At end-2024 there were c 120 PPP assets, mostly comprising individual concession-based
investments that span various sectors, such as education, healthcare, justice and
other social infrastructure sectors across multiple jurisdictions. Revenues are nearly
always based on the availability of the asset (rather than the extent that it is used),
are long term and are contracted with government or government-backed entities. Most
importantly, the PPP projects have consistently maintained a high level of asset availability
and performance. The only notable demand-based revenue exposure within the PPP assets
is in Diabolo Rail, the rail link between Brussels Airport and Belgium’s national
rail network, in the form of passenger usage. This is mitigated by a revenue adjustment
mechanism that allows the project to seek an increase in the passenger fares it charges
where passenger numbers and returns fall below a certain threshold.
The sector has begun to see an increasing focus on ‘handback’, the process of transferring
PPP assets and the associated services back to the public sector at contract expiry.
For INPP, the first handback is in 2025 (Hereford and Worcester courts), representing
a very minor 0.1–0.2% of portfolio value, and will not be significant until the mid-2030s.
Amber Infrastructure’s capabilities and its sector experience will be important in
facilitating an efficient and seamless handback, avoiding remediation costs or reputational
risk.
In early July, INPP completed its agreement to release £49m in proceeds from its remaining senior debt position the Priority School Building Aggregator Programme
and 13, mostly minority interests, in the Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme.
The BSF investments were acquired in 2011 and INPP’s strategy has been to increase
minority holdings to a majority position wherever possible. Where this has not been
feasible, and where a sale is aligned with the company’s interests, it has divested.
The value of the retained equity interests and funds released from this transaction
is at a premium to the 31 December 2024 valuation. The retained equity interests equate
to c 1% of the published NAV at 31 December 2024.
INPP’s regulated assets comprise investments in Cadent (the UK’s largest gas distribution network), offshore
transmission owners (OFTOs) and Tideway (the new 25km ‘super sewer’ under the River
Thames), representing 16%, 19% and 15% of the portfolio respectively at end-2024.
Each is regulated by a statutory independent economic regulator, providing INPP with
a relatively high degree of predictability regarding future returns on capital. The
use of economic regulation within the infrastructure sector is most often applied
to businesses or assets that are monopolistic in nature and is aimed at protecting
the interests of consumers, while ensuring investors are provided with a fair return
on their investment via a predictable and transparent regulatory framework.
The transition to net zero carbon will change the role of Cadent’s gas distribution
network over time as consumers gradually shift their consumption to lower-carbon alternatives
such as renewable electricity and green gases, alongside an expected decline in natural
gas. Cadent has a critical role to play throughout the transition and beyond, continuing
to safely and reliably provide gas and thereby facilitate the increased use of cleaner,
albeit more intermittent, technologies; driving reductions in emissions while customers
still need gas; and converting and developing the network to enable the distribution
of green gases to where needed when customers are ready. In the near term, INPP says
that it continues to perform strongly and in line with expectations and has a stable
outlook. The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) will soon determine the
revenues that Cadent will be able to earn over the next five-year price control period,
which begins in April 2026, and its final decision is expected in December 2025. It
has previously indicated that it does not expect any major regulatory changes from
the existing framework, highlighting the need to be adaptable to balance the interests
of both consumers and investors in view of the range of potential future pathways
to net zero carbon.
Major construction works were completed on the Tideway project during 2024 and, having
been fully connected to London’s wider sewerage network, it is in the commissioning
phase, which ensures the reliability of the tunnel through ongoing testing and storm
simulations. Handover, the point at which Thames Water has certified that system commissioning
is complete, remains planned for the second half of the year. During commissioning,
Tideway is already being operated and to date has prevented more than seven million cubic metres of sewage from entering the River Thames, equivalent to the volume of more than 2,500 Olympic
swimming pools. INPP does not expect the financial problems of Thames Water, which
has a licence requirement to collect revenues from its customers and pass these to
Tideway, to have any material impact on its investment. Tideway has statutory and
regulatory protections, designed to mitigate any revenue disruption.
Following its £77m investment in the Moray East OFTO in 2024, INPP now has investments
in 11 OFTOs with capacity to transmit sufficient renewable energy to power the equivalent
of c 3.7m homes. The OFTOs are not electricity generators but connect the UK onshore
electricity grid to offshore windfarms, and are regulated by Ofgem. The revenues generated
are not linked to electricity production or price – instead the OFTO is paid a pre-agreed,
availability-based revenue stream for a fixed period of time (typically 20–25 years).
The regulatory arrangements beyond the existing licence periods are yet to be determined,
although Ofgem has indicated its objective of maximising the combined operational
lifetimes of both generation and transmission assets where it is economic and efficient
to do so. In this respect, it expects incumbent OFTOs to be best positioned to operate
transmission assets in an extension period.
In the recent portfolio update, INPP says that the Beatrice OFTO is currently operating
at reduced capacity as a result of a cable fault that occurred in Q225. Repairs are
being planned and the OFTO expects to return to full operations by year-end. This
is a similar situation to the East Anglia One OFTO, which suffered an underwater cable
fault and capacity outage. In that case, the INPP asset management team was able to
ensure a swift repair and, as expected, Ofgem deemed the OFTO not at fault nor liable
for any availability-linked revenue deduction. With the Beatrice OFTO, INPP expects
the costs of repair to be covered by insurance and any financial impact is not expected
to be material to the portfolio.
INPP’s investments in operating businesses mainly include Angel Trains (the UK’s largest rolling stock leasing company) and
BeNEX (an investor in both rolling stock and train operating companies that operate
regional passenger rail franchises across Germany), along with a small investment
in digital infrastructure companies. On behalf of the company, Amber Infrastructure
holds a board position on each business, through which it engages in their governance
with the aim of ensuring effective risk management and driving the overall financial,
operational and ESG performance of its investments. Angel Trains is performing well,
with the train operators (its customers) experiencing good levels of traffic. INPP
does not expect any impact on the company from renationalisation of UK rail operators
as there should be no impact on rolling stock requirements, and the transport secretary
has indicated no plans to change the way this is leased.
BeNEX continues to perform well, benefiting from the growing popularity of train use
in Germany while expanding its regional footprint. Having acquired two further train
operators in Q424 it now operates six franchises, generating predominantly availability-based
revenues and, to a lesser extent, revenues linked to passenger numbers. BeNEX’s Q424
acquisition was part-funded by a strategic follow-on investment by INPP amounting
to £15m.
The digital investments comprise two fibre network providers. Community Fibre, London’s
largest full-fibre broadband provider, continues to strongly increase customer numbers.
Serving the south of England, toob continues to grow its network and in 2024 INPP
invested £8m of an existing commitment, alongside co-investors. The remaining commitment
amounts to £5m.