Oceania Natural — Update 3 June 2016

Oceania Natural — Update 3 June 2016

Oceania Natural

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Oceania Natural

Affirming FY17 targets

Consumer goods

NXT Company Spotlight

3 June 2016

Price

NZ$2.30

Market cap

NZ$60m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

ONL

Listing

NXT

Shares in issue

26.2m

Business description

Oceania Natural is a producer, distributor and reseller of natural food and supplement products sourced from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, sold predominantly into the People’s Republic of China. Its chief products are manuka honey and related products, Noni juice and dietary supplements.

Bull

Tapping into demand for clean NZ products.

Huge market potential in China.

Board has strong experience in consumer products companies.

Bear

Small player competing with large incumbents.

Supply constraints on Manuka honey production.

Key person risk.

Analysts

Finola Burke

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Moira Daw

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Oceania Natural (ONL) is an early-stage New Zealand company involved in producing and distributing natural food and diet supplements sourced from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, and sold both domestically and in the People’s Republic of China. The company has reported FY16 NPAT of NZ$0.18m on sales of NZ$3.35m. ONL has reaffirmed its key operating milestone (KOMs) targets for FY17.

FY16 results

ONL delivered FY16 NPAT of NZ$182,584, well up on NZ$1,154 in FY15. Year-on-year sales increased 122% to NZ$3.35m. However, this fell short of the company’s target of NZ$3.4m stated in the listing document due to slightly lower than expected distributor sales. Direct sales for the year were NZ$655,000, ahead of the NZ$650,000 target outlined in the listing document. Gross margin for the year was 40%, compared with the company’s target of 41%. Auditors PWC provided a qualified opinion on the accounts as they were unable to verify the opening inventories for FY14 and FY15 and had not been able to verify the completion of a NZ$99,940 in revenue transactions to a related party.

FY17 KOMs

ONL has reaffirmed its KOMs for FY17. It is targeting total revenue of NZ$5.38m with NZ$1.38m from direct sales and NZ$4m from distributor sales. ONL is forecasting a gross margin of 40%, which equates to gross profit of NZ$2.15m. The company has also noted the second half of the financial year is traditionally the busiest sales period, so a good portion of the first six months of FY17 will focus on putting the systems and people in place to meet the sales target.

Capital-raising

ONL has taken advantage of its strong share price and raised additional capital since the financial year end. In early May, it issued 360,708 shares at NZ$2.295/share in a private placement to raise NZ$827,825 to fund additional working capital. As net debt on the balance sheet was NZ$735,627, the capital raise should put ONL on a cash-neutral footing.

Valuation: Market cap implies 18x EV/sales multiple

Since listing on the NXT on 31 March 2016, ONL’s shares have almost quadrupled in value. The current share price of NZ$2.30 implies an EV/sales multiple of 18x FY16 sales and 11x FY17e target sales. This is well ahead of the 2.4x median of its well-established listed peers (see Exhibit 3).

Historical performance

Year
end

Revenue
(NZ$000s)

EBITDA
(NZ$000s)

EBIT
(NZ$000s)

NPAT
(NZ$000s)

Net cash
(NZ$000s)

Net assets
(NZ$000s)

03/15

1,512

45

20

1

4

(65)

03/16

3,351

305

276

183

(736)

1,874

Source: Oceania Natural

FY16 results and FY17 KOMs

ONL delivered FY16 NPAT of NZ$182,254, well ahead of the NZ$1,154 NPAT in FY15. The result was delivered on sales of NZ$3.35m and a gross margin of 40%, both a little down on the company’s FY16 targets in its listing document but well ahead of the prior year, as Exhibit 1 demonstrates.

Exhibit 1: Oceania Natural FY16 vs FY15

NZ$m

FY16

FY15

Revenue

3.35

1.51

Cost of sales

(2.01)

(1.01)

Gross Profit

1.34

0.50

Gross profit margin %

40%

33%

EBITDA

0.31

0.04

EBIT

0.28

0.02

PBT

0.25

0.00

NPAT

0.18

0.00

EPS ( c )

0.89

4.15

Shares on issue (m)

25.83

0.00

Source: Oceania Natural

The company delivered direct sales for the year ahead of its target but missed its distributor sales target by NZ$54,000, as Exhibit 2 demonstrates. The company blamed unanticipated costs associated with its NXT listing for its lower than target gross margin.

ONL has reaffirmed its FY17 KOM targets for total revenue of NZ$5.38m, comprising NZ$1.38m in direct sales and NZ$4m from distributor sales. It is also targeting a gross margin of 40% for FY17.

ONL has noted that the second half of the financial year is traditionally its strongest sales season and that, as a consequence, it expected to use the first six months of FY17 to put in place the systems and people to meet its FY17 sales target.

Exhibit 2: Key operating milestones

NZ$000s

FY16a

FY16 target

FY17 target

Total revenue

3,351

3,400

5,380

Direct sales

655

650

1,380

Distributor sales

2,696

2,750

4,000

Gross margin (%)

40

41

40

Source: Oceania Natural

Peer comparison

ONL’s listed peers are predominantly Australian and New Zealand honey and health products companies. All are well-established companies in more mature stages of their lifecycles.

As a consequence, the median EV/sales multiple of this group of 2.4x (Exhibit 3) is well below the EV/sales multiple implied by ONL’s current market capitalisation. With a market capitalisation of NZ$60m, the implied EV/sales multiple for FY16 is 18x, while the implied FY17e EV/sales multiple is 11x on target sales.

Exhibit 3: Peer comparison based on 12-month forward consensus and Edison forecasts

Company

Country

Currency

Price

Mkt cap (m)

P/E (x)

EV/sales (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

EBITDA margin

Operating margin

Blackmores

Australia

A$

158.02

2,722

28.6

3.9

18.6

20.8%

19.7%

Capilano Honey

Australia

A$

20.84

197

17.9

1.5

12.3

12.5%

10.9%

Comvita

New Zealand

NZ$

12.80

511

27.0

2.7

15.7

17.2%

13.7%

Vitaco Holdings

Australia

A$

1.82

253

20.3

1.3

12.2

10.9%

9.3%

Natural and health products companies

Median

 

382

23.7

2.4

14.7

15.3%

13.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 27 May 2016.

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