NetDimensions (Holdings)
Written by
NetDimensions (Holdings) |
On target for FY17 profitability |
Interim results |
Software & comp services |
19 September 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
NetDimensions (Holdings) is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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While NetDimensions (AIM: NETD, OTCQX: NETDY) announced a modest reduction in H1 revenue due to a decline in services and support, this masked an 8% improvement in high-margin licence revenues to $6.8m. Costs fell dramatically, enabling a sharp reduction in the EBITDA loss. New business is increasingly lumpy as the group targets large enterprises in high-consequence industries and we have conservatively eased our numbers. Nevertheless, the quality of business continues to improve with the emphasis on recurring software rental revenue. Following the recent decline, the shares look attractive, given the $11.2m cash position (c 16.5p per share), an attractive growth profile, the cash-generative business model and an EV/sales rating at just 0.4x.
Year |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
22.7 |
(3.5) |
(9.4) |
0.9 |
N/A |
1.8 |
12/15 |
25.4 |
(0.7) |
(2.2) |
0.9 |
N/A |
1.8 |
12/16e |
26.6 |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
1.0 |
N/A |
2.0 |
12/17e |
31.5 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
29.3 |
2.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. P/E and yield calculated in pence.
Interim results: High-margin licence revenue up 8%
Group revenue slipped by 1% to $10.5m but costs fell, enabling the group to reduce its EBITDA loss by 58% to $0.8m. Secure SaaS revenue lifted by 6% to $5.4m, while software licensing (mostly onsite rental) rose by 11% to $1.3m. Services revenues were weaker due to the delay in roll-outs highlighted in the July trading update, while the de-emphasising of perpetual licences led to a 33% decline in support and maintenance revenue. Invoiced sales to clients in high-consequence industries represented 91% of total invoiced sales. The group is becoming increasingly specialised on a select few verticals including precision engineering (especially automotive) and healthcare, with the latter growing by 11%. The group generated $0.3m in H1 gross operating cash flow and modestly positive free cash flow, but the net cash position dipped by $0.8m to $11.2m over the six months, due to the decline in sterling as the group has significant GBP deposits.
Forecasts: Conservatively eased
We have conservative eased our revenue forecasts by $0.4m in FY16, $0.5m in FY17 and $0.6m in FY18. We have tweaked the gross margin forecast upwards, while conservatively increasing operating expenses, which results in operating profit falling by $0.4m in FY16 (to a $0.4m loss) and by $0.2m in each of FY17 and FY18. We forecast the group to end the year with $10.7m cash (previously $11.1m), which rises to $11.7m a year later (previously $12.2m).
Valuation: High-growth sector with punchy valuations
If NETD can manage the growth effectively, we continue to see significant upside, as the shares trade on an EV of 0.4x our FY17e revenues, compared to the group’s larger US peers (its key competitors), which typically trade at 2.7-6.8x revenues.
Interim results: High-margin software shows growth
Group revenue slipped by 1% to $10.5m. However, within the mix, the key Secure SaaS revenue lifted by 6% to $5.4m, while software licensing (annual licences – effectively onsite rental) rose by 11% to $1.3m. Services revenues slipped by 6% to $3.2m due to the delay in roll-outs highlighted in the July trading update. The group has been de-emphasising legacy perpetual licences for several years and this led to a 33% decline in support and maintenance revenue to $0.6m. Recurring revenue (SaaS, annual licence and support) represented 70% of total revenue. The revenue slowdown is a disappointment for the company and we understand the focus on developing larger accounts has led to some distraction from selling the group’s “off-the-shelf” product to smaller customers that do not require customisation. We note that the group currently has 16 quota-carrying sales people, along with regional hands and relationship managers.
The group gross margin rose by 410bp to 85.0% largely due to the increase in high-margin software licensing revenues (ie the software licensing revenue plus hosting services) in the revenue mix, while operating costs (before depreciation) fell by 7% to $9.7m. In July we noted that expenses had been tightly controlled due to a significant slowdown in new hires, which was below budget. This enabled the group to reduce its EBITDA loss by 58% to $0.8m. We note the software licensing revenue line represents annual licences, which represents onsite installations of the software that are typically sold for a period of three years. It also used to include perpetual licences, which are de-emphasised and hence very rarely sold, and legacy perpetual installations are reflected in the support and maintenance revenue line. Hosting services represents the group’s Secure SaaS product, which is a fully hosted solution and supported by the ISO 27001 security standard.
In its July trading update, the group reported that revenue for the period was broadly unchanged from H115, while the adjusted EBITDA loss for the period was less than $1m. We said we understood that the company has received open purchase orders for significant annual on-premise licences. However, due to delays in the roll-outs, it has not been able to recognise the revenue or cash flow. We note that the group has been winning increasingly larger customers and these customers have increasingly complex services requirements. This typically involves complex customisation and data migration is also an issue, with data from as many as 20 systems transitioning to the NetDimensions platform. The roll-outs can be lengthy and complex, across multiple countries, languages and across a high level of users. This can lead to delays.
Exhibit 1: Half-by-half analysis
US$000s |
H115 |
H215 |
FY15 |
H116 |
H216e |
FY16e |
FY17e |
Software licensing |
1,211 |
4,679 |
5,890 |
1,343 |
3,153 |
4,496 |
7,046 |
Hosting services |
5,127 |
5,323 |
10,450 |
5,445 |
6,390 |
11,835 |
13,220 |
Support and maintenance |
890 |
690 |
1,580 |
551 |
1,186 |
1,738 |
1,722 |
Professional services |
3,364 |
4,106 |
7,470 |
3,152 |
5,417 |
8,569 |
9,522 |
Total revenue |
10,592 |
14,804 |
25,396 |
10,492 |
16,146 |
26,638 |
31,509 |
Cost of sales |
(2,021) |
(2,172) |
(4,193) |
(1,576) |
(2,812) |
(4,388) |
(4,871) |
Gross profit |
8,571 |
12,632 |
21,203 |
8,915 |
13,335 |
22,250 |
26,638 |
Gross Margin |
80.9% |
85.3% |
83.5% |
85.0% |
82.6% |
83.5% |
84.5% |
Opex before depreciation |
(10,461) |
(11,242) |
(21,704) |
(9,709) |
(12,744) |
(22,453) |
(25,183) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
(1,890) |
1,390 |
(501) |
(794) |
591 |
(203) |
1,455 |
Dep'n & s/w amortisation |
(121) |
(89) |
(210) |
(97) |
(134) |
(231) |
(262) |
Adjusted operating profit |
(2,011) |
1,301 |
(710) |
(890) |
591 |
(434) |
1,194 |
Operating Margin |
(19.0%) |
8.8% |
(2.8%) |
(8.5%) |
3.7% |
(1.6%) |
3.8% |
Net interest |
(0) |
(14) |
(15) |
(0) |
25 |
25 |
25 |
Edison Profit Before Tax (norm) |
(2,011) |
1,287 |
(725) |
(891) |
616 |
(409) |
1,219 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(236) |
(252) |
(488) |
(152) |
(152) |
(304) |
(304) |
Share-based payments |
(87) |
(291) |
(377) |
(317) |
(58) |
(375) |
(400) |
Exchange movements |
(155) |
(165) |
(319) |
169 |
(169) |
0 |
0 |
Exceptional items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
(2,489) |
580 |
(1,909) |
(1,191) |
237 |
(1,088) |
514 |
Source: NetDimensions accounts, Edison Investment Research
Forecasts: Conservatively eased
We have conservative eased our revenue forecasts by $0.4m in FY16, $0.5m in FY17 and $0.6m in FY18. We have tweaked the gross margin forecast upwards, while conservatively increasing operating expenses, which results in operating profit falling by $0.4m in FY16 (to a $0.4m loss), and by $0.2m in each of FY17 and FY18. We forecast the group to end the year with $10.7m cash (previously $11.1m), which rises to $11.7m a year later (previously $12.2m). We have also reduced the amortisation of acquired intangibles to H116 levels going forward.
We believe our forecasts are conservative, particularly operating costs, which we forecast will be $3m higher in H2, mainly due to the increased sales and marketing activity in the period. Nevertheless, while a busy Q4 performance could potentially boost the FY16 results if annual licences or perpetual licences are sold, the increasing focus on recurring Secure SaaS rental revenues means that a strong new business performance in Q4 will not necessarily boost FY16 numbers.
Exhibit 2: Forecasts
Revenues ($'000s) |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
Software licensing |
3,673 |
5,381 |
5,890 |
4,496 |
7,046 |
7,617 |
Hosting services |
6,072 |
8,279 |
10,450 |
11,835 |
13,220 |
14,612 |
Support and maintenance |
2,433 |
2,644 |
1,580 |
1,738 |
1,722 |
1,757 |
Content, implementation and customisation |
4,030 |
6,397 |
7,470 |
8,569 |
9,522 |
10,524 |
Group revenue |
16,208 |
22,701 |
25,396 |
26,638 |
31,509 |
34,509 |
Growth (%) |
17.5 |
40.1 |
11.9 |
4.9 |
18.3 |
9.5 |
Gross Profit |
14,622 |
18,699 |
21,203 |
22,250 |
26,638 |
29,173 |
Gross margin (%) |
90.2 |
82.4 |
83.5 |
83.5 |
84.5 |
84.5 |
Operating expenses |
(18,893) |
(22,230) |
(21,913) |
(22,684) |
(25,444) |
(26,589) |
Adjusted operating profit |
(4,272) |
(3,531) |
(710) |
(434) |
1,194 |
2,584 |
Operating margin (%) |
(26.4) |
(15.6) |
(2.8) |
(1.6) |
3.8 |
7.5 |
Growth (%) |
(1,566.0) |
(17.3) |
(79.9) |
(38.9) |
(375.0) |
116.5 |
Net interest |
65 |
25 |
(15) |
25 |
25 |
25 |
Profit before tax norm |
(4,207) |
(3,507) |
(725) |
(409) |
1,219 |
2,609 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(477) |
(472) |
(488) |
(304) |
(304) |
(304) |
Share based payments |
(266) |
(674) |
(377) |
(375) |
(400) |
(425) |
Exchange movements |
4 |
(364) |
(319) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Profit before tax |
(4,946) |
(5,016) |
(1,909) |
(1,088) |
514 |
1,880 |
Taxation |
(0) |
(124) |
(193) |
115 |
(341) |
(731) |
Net income |
(4,946) |
(5,141) |
(2,102) |
(974) |
173 |
1,149 |
Adjusted EPS (c) |
(12.4) |
(9.4) |
(2.2) |
(0.6) |
1.7 |
3.5 |
Adjusted EPS (p) |
(9.4) |
(7.2) |
(1.7) |
(0.4) |
1.3 |
2.7 |
P/E - Adjusted EPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
29.3 |
13.9 |
Source: NetDimensions accounts, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Forecast changes
Revenues ($m) |
Adjusted operating profit ($m) |
EPS (c) |
|||||||
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
|
2016e |
27.0 |
26.6 |
(1) |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
N/A |
0.0 |
(0.6) |
N/A |
2017e |
32.0 |
31.5 |
(2) |
1.4 |
1.2 |
(14) |
2.0 |
1.7 |
(15) |
2018e |
35.1 |
34.5 |
(2) |
2.7 |
2.6 |
(4) |
3.8 |
3.5 |
(8) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation: High-growth sector with punchy valuations
We compare the stock with its listed US competitors and UK peers, which are not direct competitors (except for Access Intelligence, which has an LMS solution). NetDimensions’ stock trades on 0.4x our FY17 revenue forecast, which is well below its UK peers, and just a fraction of its US peers. This is in spite of NetDimensions’ very good track record of profitability and cash generation before the accelerated investment in 2013.
Exhibit 4: Peer valuations
Share price |
Market cap |
EV/sales (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E (x) |
||||
m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
||
NetDimensions (£) |
37.75p |
19.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
N/A |
9.2 |
N/A |
29.3 |
1) North American Human Capital Management software peers ($'m) |
||||||||
Callidus Software |
18.725 |
1164 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
41.4 |
32.0 |
67.4 |
51.2 |
Cornerstone OnDemand |
44.07 |
2465 |
5.7 |
4.7 |
78.6 |
45.1 |
3672.5 |
158.5 |
Halogen Software (C$) |
10.18 |
219 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
29.2 |
21.8 |
N/A |
N/A |
HealthStream |
26.4 |
838 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
19.9 |
15.2 |
88.0 |
58.9 |
Paycom Software |
48.73 |
2915 |
8.8 |
6.8 |
33.9 |
26.3 |
63.2 |
51.0 |
Paylocity |
42.285 |
2163 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
54.1 |
40.3 |
115.5 |
83.9 |
Ultimate Software |
205.6 |
5950 |
7.5 |
6.1 |
30.9 |
24.6 |
62.5 |
50.4 |
Workday |
88.53 |
17617 |
10.3 |
7.9 |
127.1 |
92.4 |
N/A |
275.8 |
Medians |
6.3 |
5.1 |
37.7 |
29.1 |
77.7 |
58.9 |
||
2) Human Capital Management software peers quoted on AIM (£'m) |
||||||||
Access Intelligence |
5.125 |
15 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Bond Intl Software |
108.5 |
46 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Dillistone Systems |
83.5 |
16 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
13.3 |
12.3 |
EG Solutions |
54 |
11 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
5.6 |
3.9 |
23.5 |
11.0 |
Learning Technologies |
30.5 |
128 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
18.3 |
15.6 |
27.7 |
21.8 |
ServicePower |
2.625 |
6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
9.1 |
5.1 |
N/A |
26.3 |
Tracsis |
530 |
147 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
18.8 |
16.8 |
26.1 |
23.2 |
Medians |
1.5 |
1.5 |
9.1 |
5.8 |
24.8 |
21.8 |
||
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Prices as at London close on 16 September 2016.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
16,208 |
22,701 |
25,396 |
26,638 |
31,509 |
34,509 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,586) |
(4,002) |
(4,193) |
(4,388) |
(4,871) |
(5,336) |
||
Gross Profit |
14,622 |
18,699 |
21,203 |
22,250 |
26,638 |
29,173 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(4,105) |
(3,335) |
(501) |
(203) |
1,455 |
2,913 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
(4,272) |
(3,531) |
(710) |
(434) |
1,194 |
2,584 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(477) |
(472) |
(488) |
(304) |
(304) |
(304) |
||
Exceptional items and exchange movements |
4 |
(364) |
(319) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates and joint ventures |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(266) |
(674) |
(377) |
(375) |
(400) |
(425) |
||
Operating Profit |
(5,011) |
(5,041) |
(1,894) |
(1,113) |
489 |
1,855 |
||
Net Interest |
65 |
25 |
(15) |
25 |
25 |
25 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(4,207) |
(3,507) |
(725) |
(409) |
1,219 |
2,609 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(4,946) |
(5,016) |
(1,909) |
(1,088) |
514 |
1,880 |
Tax |
() |
(124) |
(193) |
115 |
(341) |
(731) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(4,207) |
(3,631) |
(918) |
(294) |
878 |
1,878 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(4,946) |
(5,141) |
(2,102) |
(974) |
173 |
1,149 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
33.8 |
38.5 |
40.8 |
51.6 |
52.3 |
53.2 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(12.4) |
(9.4) |
(2.2) |
(0.6) |
1.7 |
3.5 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(14.6) |
(13.3) |
(5.2) |
(1.9) |
0.3 |
2.2 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.99 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
1.00 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
90.2 |
82.4 |
83.5 |
83.5 |
84.5 |
84.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
(25.3) |
(14.7) |
(2.0) |
(0.8) |
4.6 |
8.4 |
||
Operating Margin (%) |
(26.4) |
(15.6) |
(2.8) |
(1.6) |
3.8 |
7.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
3,980 |
3,359 |
3,019 |
2,803 |
2,615 |
2,395 |
Intangible Assets |
3,522 |
3,059 |
2,591 |
2,286 |
1,982 |
1,677 |
||
Tangible Assets |
316 |
270 |
260 |
349 |
465 |
550 |
||
Other |
142 |
30 |
168 |
168 |
168 |
168 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
15,031 |
13,104 |
21,011 |
20,166 |
22,904 |
25,973 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
7,303 |
8,197 |
9,030 |
9,472 |
11,204 |
12,271 |
||
Cash |
7,728 |
4,907 |
11,981 |
10,694 |
11,700 |
13,702 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(10,673) |
(12,476) |
(11,830) |
(12,050) |
(14,144) |
(15,610) |
Creditors |
(10,671) |
(12,473) |
(11,826) |
(12,045) |
(14,140) |
(15,606) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2) |
(2) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(113) |
(182) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
Long term borrowings |
(6) |
(3) |
(14) |
(14) |
(14) |
(14) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(106) |
(179) |
(65) |
(65) |
(65) |
(65) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
8,225 |
3,805 |
12,120 |
10,840 |
11,295 |
12,679 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(2,514) |
(2,085) |
(2,349) |
(432) |
1,793 |
3,296 |
Net Interest |
65 |
25 |
(15) |
25 |
25 |
25 |
||
Tax |
(31) |
(57) |
(148) |
(193) |
82 |
(329) |
||
Capex |
(256) |
(144) |
(205) |
(320) |
(378) |
(414) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2,242) |
(258) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
6,133 |
250 |
10,553 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(287) |
(389) |
(374) |
(367) |
(516) |
(576) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
868 |
(2,658) |
7,464 |
(1,287) |
1,006 |
2,002 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(6,814) |
(7,719) |
(4,902) |
(11,963) |
(10,676) |
(11,681) |
Other |
37 |
(160) |
(403) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,719) |
(4,902) |
(11,963) |
(10,676) |
(11,681) |
(13,684) |
Source: NetDimensions accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|