Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR2.92
▲ −0.01 (−0.41%)
Market capitalisation
EUR247m
Research: Healthcare
Oryzon is ramping up its R&D programme and plans to conduct a total of four mid-stage clinical trials with lead assets ORY-1001 (a specific LSD1 inhibitor for cancers) and ORY-2001 (a dual LSD1/MAOB inhibitor for CNS indications). If all goes according to plan, data readouts are expected from all four trials in 2019 and these key catalysts are reachable with current cash, as per our calculations. The most advanced studies are the two Phase IIa trials with ORY-2001 in multiple sclerosis (MS) and Alzheimer’s disease with the MS study, SATEEN, enrolling patients since January 2018. Our valuation is marginally higher at €315m or €9.2/share.
Written by
Oryzon Genomics |
Multiple data readouts in 2019 within cash reach |
Company update |
Pharma & biotech |
8 March 2018 |
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Oryzon is ramping up its R&D programme and plans to conduct a total of four mid-stage clinical trials with lead assets ORY-1001 (a specific LSD1 inhibitor for cancers) and ORY-2001 (a dual LSD1/MAOB inhibitor for CNS indications). If all goes according to plan, data readouts are expected from all four trials in 2019 and these key catalysts are reachable with current cash, as per our calculations. The most advanced studies are the two Phase IIa trials with ORY-2001 in multiple sclerosis (MS) and Alzheimer’s disease with the MS study, SATEEN, enrolling patients since January 2018. Our valuation is marginally higher at €315m or €9.2/share.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
5.0 |
(4.7) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17 |
4.3 |
(4.6) |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
7.0 |
(5.6) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
6.3 |
(7.3) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
ORY-1001 for blood and small cell lung cancer
Oryzon regained the rights from Roche for ORY-1001 in January 2018 and in its Q417 report reiterated its plans to continue the development of ORY-1001 in both clinical-stage indications (Phase I dose-finding data for SCLC; Phase I/IIa data for acute leukaemias, as discussed in our August report). R&D plans are still at an early stage, but initially Oryzon expects to start a new Phase I/IIa study in SCLC and a follow-on Phase IIa in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in H218 with results deliverable later in 2019. Recent news also includes a fresh peer-reviewed publication in the prestigious Cancer Cell detailing the pharmacology of ORY-1001.
ORY-2001 for MS and mild-to-moderate AD
Two trials with ORY-2001 are underway. A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-week study (n=24) will evaluate ORY-2001 in patients with relapsing-remitting MS and secondary progressive MS. The Phase IIa SATEEN study with ORY-2001 in MS started enrolling patients in January 2018 and the preliminary readout is planned in early 2019. A second Phase IIa ETHERAL trial (n=90) with ORY-2001 in mild-to-moderate AD will start in H118 and is expected to end in Q419, but the preliminary readout is planned in early 2019. This means that data readouts from the four trials with ORY-1001 and ORY-2001 are expected in 2019 and all are reachable with current cash.
Valuation: Marginally higher at €315m or €9.2/share
Our valuation is up slightly at €315m or €9.2/share from €305m or €8.9/share due to rolling our model forward, which is partially offset by lower net cash. The reported year-end cash position was €35.3m (cash and short-term investments; net cash €11.6m). Our model suggests this should be sufficient to reach 2020.
Financials and valuation
Oryzon’s FY17 financial results came in somewhat better than our estimates, mainly due to lower R&D costs of €5.3m vs our estimate of €5.8m. Total operating expenses decreased y-o-y to €8.6m from €9.6m in FY16. However, we expect this to pick up again in 2018 as Oryzon has initiated the two Phase II trials with ORY-2001 and plans to conduct smaller studies with ORY-1001. We leave our R&D cost estimates of €8.5m for FY18 and €9.5m for FY19 unchanged; these are the main cost drivers. €4.3m was booked as income and represents capitalised R&D costs (Oryzon follows local GAAP). We fine-tune our forecasts by slightly increasing G&A to €3.0m from €2.7m. The reported year-end cash position was €35.3m (cash and short-term investments; net cash €11.6m). Our model suggests this should be sufficient to reach 2020.
Exhibit 1: Key changes to our financial forecasts
€000s |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||||
Est. |
Act |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
New |
|
Revenue |
4,742 |
4,317 |
-9% |
7,014 |
7,034 |
+0% |
6,301 |
Gross profit |
4,742 |
4,317 |
-9% |
7,014 |
7,034 |
+0% |
6,301 |
R&D costs |
(5,774) |
(5,306) |
-8% |
(8,502) |
(8,502) |
+0% |
(9,454) |
Operating profit (rep) |
(4,883) |
(4,324) |
-11% |
(5,005) |
(5,556) |
+11% |
(7,348) |
Profit before tax (rep) |
(6,152) |
(5,252) |
-15% |
(5,799) |
(6,349) |
+9% |
(8,150) |
Profit after tax (rep) |
(6,152) |
(5,197) |
-16% |
(5,799) |
(6,349) |
+9% |
(8,150) |
EPS reported (€) |
(0.20) |
(0.16) |
-17% |
(0.17) |
(0.19) |
+9% |
(0.24) |
Source: Oryzon Genomics accounts, Edison Investment Research
As Oryzon is on track to develop its assets in all the indications we currently include in our valuation, we leave our assumptions unchanged. Our new valuation is €315m or €9.2/share, marginally up from €305m or €8.9/share due to rolling our model forward, which is partially offset by a lower net cash position.
Exhibit 2: Oryzon rNPV valuation
Product |
Indication |
Launch |
Peak sales* |
Value |
Probability |
rNPV |
rNPV/share |
ORY-1001 |
AML |
2023 |
930 |
251.3 |
15% |
45.9 |
1.3 |
ORY-1001 |
SCLC |
2026 |
570 |
122.9 |
8% |
21.3 |
0.6 |
ORY-2001 |
AD |
2026 |
4,510 |
917.1 |
15% |
142.0 |
4.2 |
ORY-2001 |
MS |
2027 |
1,940 |
405.8 |
20% |
96.2 |
2.8 |
Net cash (est. end-Q118) |
9.6 |
100% |
9.6 |
0.3 |
|||
Valuation |
|
|
1,706.7 |
315.0 |
9.2 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Peak sales are rounded to the nearest US$10m, shown in US dollars. SCLC = small cell lung cancer; AML = acute myeloid leukaemia; AD = Alzheimer’s disease; MS = multiple sclerosis. Net cash includes term deposits.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
December |
Local GAAP |
Local GAAP |
Local GAAP |
Local GAAP |
Local GAAP |
Local GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
15,536 |
7,185 |
5,009 |
4,317 |
7,034 |
6,301 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
15,536 |
7,185 |
5,009 |
4,317 |
7,034 |
6,301 |
||
Research and development |
(1,108) |
(3,191) |
(5,210) |
(5,306) |
(8,502) |
(9,454) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
11,659 |
688 |
(3,721) |
(3,498) |
(4,678) |
(6,350) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
11,398 |
448 |
(3,879) |
(3,660) |
(4,789) |
(6,461) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(657) |
(657) |
(695) |
(664) |
(767) |
(887) |
||
Exceptionals |
(4,617) |
(24) |
(4) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
6,124 |
(233) |
(4,578) |
(4,324) |
(5,556) |
(7,348) |
||
Exceptionals |
667 |
(169) |
(58) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Interest |
(52) |
(553) |
(844) |
(928) |
(793) |
(802) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
11,346 |
(105) |
(4,724) |
(4,588) |
(5,582) |
(7,263) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
6,739 |
(955) |
(5,480) |
(5,252) |
(6,349) |
(8,150) |
Tax |
(88) |
(37) |
32 |
55 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
11,258 |
(142) |
(4,692) |
(4,533) |
(5,582) |
(7,263) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
6,651 |
(992) |
(5,448) |
(5,197) |
(6,349) |
(8,150) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
23.3 |
24.7 |
27.6 |
31.7 |
34.2 |
34.2 |
||
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
|
0.48 |
(0.01) |
(0.17) |
(0.14) |
(0.16) |
(0.21) |
EPS - reported (€) |
|
|
0.29 |
(0.04) |
(0.20) |
(0.16) |
(0.19) |
(0.24) |
Dividend per share (€) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
75.0 |
9.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
73.4 |
6.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
16,059 |
18,050 |
21,269 |
24,914 |
31,070 |
36,373 |
Intangible Assets |
12,928 |
15,188 |
18,810 |
22,458 |
28,725 |
34,139 |
||
Tangible Assets |
981 |
854 |
696 |
638 |
527 |
417 |
||
Investments |
2,150 |
2,008 |
1,763 |
1,818 |
1,818 |
1,818 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
9,999 |
22,681 |
28,475 |
36,130 |
24,013 |
10,366 |
Stocks |
9 |
4 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
||
Debtors |
704 |
940 |
978 |
857 |
517 |
687 |
||
Cash |
3,633 |
19,467 |
22,028 |
34,950 |
23,488 |
9,671 |
||
Other* |
5,654 |
2,270 |
5,461 |
316 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(3,969) |
(5,296) |
(7,597) |
(8,696) |
(9,084) |
(8,890) |
Creditors |
(1,299) |
(2,401) |
(2,119) |
(1,343) |
(1,731) |
(1,537) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,670) |
(2,895) |
(5,477) |
(7,354) |
(7,354) |
(7,354) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(8,196) |
(7,841) |
(19,419) |
(17,915) |
(17,915) |
(17,915) |
Long term borrowings |
(6,420) |
(6,177) |
(17,723) |
(16,041) |
(16,041) |
(16,041) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1,776) |
(1,664) |
(1,696) |
(1,874) |
(1,874) |
(1,874) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
13,893 |
27,594 |
22,729 |
34,432 |
28,083 |
19,933 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
12,178 |
1,076 |
(4,536) |
(4,281) |
(4,621) |
(7,393) |
Net Interest |
(52) |
(553) |
(471) |
(426) |
(793) |
(802) |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
0 |
0 |
(28) |
(105) |
0 |
0 |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
798 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
14,725 |
287 |
16,887 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other** |
(9,579) |
605 |
(6,819) |
653 |
(6,048) |
(5,622) |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3,345 |
15,853 |
(11,567) |
12,728 |
(11,462) |
(13,817) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
8,803 |
5,458 |
(10,395) |
1,172 |
(11,555) |
(93) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
5,458 |
(10,395) |
1,172 |
(11,555) |
(93) |
13,724 |
Source: Oryzon Genomics accounts, Edison Investment Research
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