Last close As at 05/08/2026
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EUR709m
Research: TMT
Tinexta’s Q322 results highlighted the consistent strong growth of Digital Trust (DT) and contributions from M&A (seven acquisitions), offset by the typical lower seasonal contribution from its other divisions, which management believes were accentuated by the phasing of demand for certain products and services. Despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, management re-iterated its FY22 guidance. This will require a greater profit contribution by Q4 than is typical, which management believes is supported by revenue backlogs and more positive phasing than Q322. We have increased our DCF-based valuation to €39/share (€38 previously).
Tinexta |
Management confident of rebound in Q422 |
Q322 results |
Professional services |
14 November 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Tinexta is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Tinexta’s Q322 results highlighted the consistent strong growth of Digital Trust (DT) and contributions from M&A (seven acquisitions), offset by the typical lower seasonal contribution from its other divisions, which management believes were accentuated by the phasing of demand for certain products and services. Despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, management re-iterated its FY22 guidance. This will require a greater profit contribution by Q4 than is typical, which management believes is supported by revenue backlogs and more positive phasing than Q322. We have increased our DCF-based valuation to €39/share (€38 previously).
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/20 |
269.0 |
58.4 |
0.85 |
0.26 |
27.9 |
1.1 |
12/21 |
**301.5 |
70.4 |
1.02 |
0.30 |
23.2 |
1.3 |
12/22e |
365.3 |
67.4 |
0.88 |
0.29 |
26.9 |
1.2 |
12/23e |
408.2 |
83.7 |
1.09 |
0.29 |
21.7 |
1.2 |
12/24e |
455.8 |
98.9 |
1.31 |
0.36 |
18.1 |
1.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Pro forma for disposal of Credit Information & Management.
Q322: Seasonally less important period
Tinexta’s Q322 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and operating profit grew by c 17%, 9% and 12% y-o-y respectively. M&A was the key growth driver in the period (revenue +14% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA +24%) versus organic growth (revenue +3% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA down 15%). DT continued to deliver strong organic growth (revenue +12.8%, adjusted EBITDA +14.5%). Total revenue growth and profitability were suppressed by two divisions. Innovation & Marketing Services (IMS) demonstrated its typical weaker Q3 seasonality, accentuated by phasing declines in Automatic Subsidised Finance. Cyber Security’s (CS’s) profitability fell due to mix shifts and internal investment for future growth. Its Q322 adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.7% (13.8% in Q321) was lower than the group average (Q322 22.5%, Q321 24.1%). The receipt of disposal proceeds (€130m) and free cash flow led to a significant improvement in period-end net debt (€139m vs €263m end H122)
FY22 estimates: Guidance re-iterated
Management re-iterated its FY22 guidance: y-o-y revenue growth of 21–23% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 25–27%. We retain our estimates, which are in line with guidance, but incorporate the completed investment by Intesa Sanpaolo (IS) of €55m for a 12% minority stake in Warrant Hub (IMS subsidiary). Meeting guidance requires a significant improvement in performance in Q422 by IMS (51% of FY22e divisional EBITDA to be generated) and CS (63% of FY22e EBITDA to be generated). Management’s confidence in meeting guidance stems from a high revenue backlog for both businesses and the elimination of Q3’s phasing issues.
Valuation: Well-supported by DCF
The current share price lags our DCF-based valuation, which increases to €39/share from €38 to take account of Tinexta’s improved net debt position.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
2023e |
2024e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
269.0 |
375.4 |
365.3 |
408.2 |
455.8 |
Operating costs |
(187.8) |
(276.6) |
(267.9) |
(295.0) |
(327.2) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
81.2 |
98.7 |
97.3 |
113.2 |
128.6 |
EBITDA (not adjusted) |
|
|
77.9 |
93.0 |
90.5 |
110.4 |
125.8 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
62.2 |
74.3 |
71.9 |
87.6 |
101.8 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(6.0) |
(11.7) |
(11.7) |
(11.7) |
(11.7) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2.4) |
(2.9) |
(4.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(0.9) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
||
Reported operating profit |
52.9 |
56.9 |
53.4 |
73.1 |
87.4 |
||
Net Interest |
0.6 |
(3.3) |
(4.2) |
(3.7) |
(2.7) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
(1.0) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
58.4 |
70.4 |
67.4 |
83.7 |
98.9 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
52.5 |
53.4 |
49.0 |
69.2 |
84.4 |
Reported tax |
(14.6) |
(13.8) |
(15.7) |
(20.1) |
(24.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
40.6 |
49.5 |
45.9 |
59.4 |
70.2 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
37.9 |
39.6 |
33.3 |
49.1 |
60.0 |
||
Minority interests |
(0.6) |
(1.3) |
(5.4) |
(9.6) |
(10.7) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
90.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
40.0 |
48.2 |
40.4 |
49.8 |
59.5 |
||
Net income (reported) |
37.3 |
38.3 |
117.9 |
39.5 |
49.2 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
47.1 |
47.2 |
45.9 |
45.6 |
45.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
85.5 |
104.4 |
88.1 |
109.2 |
131.1 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
84.9 |
102.0 |
88.1 |
109.2 |
131.1 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
0.80 |
0.83 |
2.57 |
0.87 |
1.09 |
Dividend (€) |
0.26 |
0.30 |
0.29 |
0.29 |
0.36 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
4.0 |
39.5 |
(-2.7) |
11.7 |
11.7 |
||
EBITDA Margin before non-recurring costs (%) |
30.2 |
26.3 |
26.6 |
27.7 |
28.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
23.1 |
19.8 |
19.7 |
21.5 |
22.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
325.8 |
591.0 |
651.2 |
628.2 |
605.8 |
Intangible Assets |
285.1 |
538.5 |
603.7 |
583.6 |
562.6 |
||
Tangible Assets |
19.0 |
25.2 |
20.2 |
17.3 |
15.8 |
||
Investments & other |
21.7 |
27.4 |
27.4 |
27.4 |
27.4 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
196.1 |
213.2 |
429.5 |
502.2 |
568.3 |
Stocks |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
||
Debtors |
84.1 |
119.5 |
125.1 |
139.8 |
156.1 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
92.8 |
68.3 |
278.9 |
336.9 |
386.7 |
||
Other financial assets |
7.3 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
||
Other |
10.7 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(154.9) |
(207.5) |
(205.1) |
(215.4) |
(226.8) |
Creditors |
(106.7) |
(146.8) |
(144.4) |
(154.6) |
(166.0) |
||
Tax and social security |
(5.1) |
(3.6) |
(3.6) |
(3.6) |
(3.6) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(40.4) |
(54.1) |
(54.1) |
(54.1) |
(54.1) |
||
Other |
(2.7) |
(3.1) |
(3.1) |
(3.1) |
(3.1) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(193.2) |
(353.1) |
(353.1) |
(353.1) |
(353.1) |
Long term borrowings |
(150.5) |
(281.5) |
(281.5) |
(281.5) |
(281.5) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(14.3) |
(30.2) |
(30.2) |
(30.2) |
(30.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
173.9 |
243.7 |
522.6 |
562.0 |
594.2 |
Minority interests |
(4.0) |
(47.0) |
(92.4) |
(99.5) |
(102.7) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
169.8 |
196.7 |
430.2 |
462.5 |
491.5 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
81.6 |
72.5 |
69.4 |
88.5 |
98.9 |
Capex and intangibles |
(14.9) |
(16.2) |
(16.4) |
(14.3) |
(16.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(3.3) |
(92.8) |
146.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(1.9) |
(2.3) |
(4.2) |
(3.7) |
(2.7) |
||
Equity financing |
(10.0) |
(9.3) |
(10.0) |
(10.0) |
(10.0) |
||
Dividends |
(2.2) |
(12.5) |
(19.2) |
(7.5) |
(20.6) |
||
Borrowings |
35.4 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
11.2 |
6.6 |
45.0 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
59.2 |
(24.6) |
210.7 |
58.0 |
49.7 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
129.1 |
91.9 |
263.3 |
52.6 |
(5.4) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
91.9 |
263.3 |
52.6 |
(5.4) |
(55.1) |
Source: Tinexta, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Energy & Resources
HELLENiQ Energy reported Q322 adjusted EBITDA of €504m, c four times higher than Q321 (€125m) and c 25% ahead of consensus (c €404m; seven analysts). This was mostly driven by a strong performance in Refining, Supply & Trading, due to strong benchmark refining margins and exports (46% of total refining sales). In addition, HELLENiQ reported improved profitability of international subsidiaries, as well as a significantly greater contribution from RES (Renewable Energy Sources). Furthermore, improved refineries’ performance and crude oil supply opportunities, as well as the operational improvement initiatives, such as the digital transformation programme, the group reorganisation, premium products in retail and network development, also had a significant contribution. Adjusted net income was €381m, more than 11 times Q321 (€33m), and c 50% ahead of consensus. It announced an interim dividend of €0.25/share, which combined with a special dividend (from the sale of DEPA) of €0.40/share equates to a dividend yield of 9.5%, before taking account of any final dividend for FY22. Our forecasts and valuation are under review.