Wheaton Precious Metals — Maiden US$1bn annual net earnings beckon

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

Last close As at 06/11/2025

CAD135.99

−0.36 (−0.26%)

Market capitalisation

CAD61,741m

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Maiden US$1bn annual net earnings beckon

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q3 adjusted EPS was 6.6% above Edison’s expectations and 1.6% above the market consensus (source: LSEG Data & Analytics, 6 November), with operational results from Sudbury, Blackwater, Marmato, Antamina, Stillwater (for palladium) and Voisey’s Bay ahead of our forecasts. Production also beat our forecasts for Constancia and Penasquito although sales lagged. For the third quarter in succession, net earnings achieved a record level. The main reason for the outperformance was a positive variance in Salobo’s sales. Whereas we had expected sales to undershoot production by 25.0% (or 18,624oz), in the event they only undershot by 16.8% (11,229oz). As a result, gold inventories rose by 3,852oz less than expected to only 3.31 months of production (cf 3.45 months forecast). Aggregate costs were also well controlled ( US$4.1m better than our forecasts). Together with a lower tax charge, these drove a US$17.5m (6.6%) positive variance in underlying net earnings and contributed to the upgrading of our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 4.0c/share (1.5%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate more than doubles from that shown below to US$3.70/share.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals and mining

Q325 results and updated FY25 forecasts

7 November 2025

Price C$135.99
Market cap C$61,904m

C$1.4115/US$, US$1.3138/£

Cash at end Q325 (excluding US$8.0m in lease liabilities)

$1,157.7m

Shares in issue

454.0m
Code WPM
Primary exchange TSX
Secondary exchange LSE
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs (11.0) 1.2 51.5
52-week high/low C$160.4 C$79.4

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is the world’s pre-eminent precious metals streaming company, with over 40 high-quality precious metals streams and early deposit agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and Colombia among others.

Next events

Ex-dividend date

20 November 2025

Fourth quarterly dividend paid

c 4 December 2025

Q4/FY25 production results

February 2026

Q425/FY25 financial results

March 2026

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Year end Revenue ($m) PBT ($m) EPS ($) DPS ($) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 1,016.0 533.4 1.18 0.60 81.9 0.6
12/24 1,284.6 752.5 1.41 0.62 68.3 0.6
12/25e 2,131.3 1,467.1 2.75 0.66 35.0 0.7
12/26e 1,650.5 817.1 1.55 0.70 62.0 0.7

Valuation: Continuing to trend upwards

Using a capital asset pricing model-type method, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9% per year, we calculate a terminal valuation for WPM of US$77.99/share (or C$110.08/share) in FY30, assuming zero long-term growth in real cash flows thereafter (which we think unlikely). If we instead assume 7.7% per year long-term growth in cash flows (ie the average CAGR in the price of gold from 1967 to 2024), our terminal value rises to US$308.95/share ( C$436.08/share) and our current valuation to US$192.87/share ( C$272.24/share). As such, at an implied growth rate of 6.3% per year, WPM’s share price currently appears to be discounting future compound annual average increases in cash flows per share from FY30 well below historical levels (+14.3% CAGR since FY05), especially given that production is expected to deliver 8.6% pa organic growth between now and FY30 alone. An alternative interpretation is that the market is assuming that current precious metals prices will prevail into FY30 with compound annual average increases in WPM’s cash flows per share thereafter of just 3.9% pa (ie below the long-term rate of historical US inflation). Otherwise, assuming no purchases of additional streams, we calculate a value per share of US$60.77 (or C$85.78, or £46.26) in FY27, based on a historical multiple of 31.2x contemporary earnings (albeit at a gold price of only US$2,239/oz and a silver price of only US$25.30/oz). At current prices, this value rises by 132.8% to US$141.45/share ( C$199.66/share, or £107.66). WPM maintains a premium rating within the sector. However, this reverses into quite a material discount if metals prices remain at current levels into FY26–27. Note that WPM simultaneously announced the acquisition of a new stream at Spring Valley in Nevada; this will be the subject of a separate note.

Updated FY25 forecasts

In the light of its Q325 results, we have revised our forecasts for Wheaton for the remainder of the year to those shown below.

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