GCP Infrastructure Investments — Key takeaways from capital markets day

Research: Investment Companies

GCP Infrastructure Investments — Key takeaways from capital markets day

GCP Infrastructure Investments (GCP) has a mature, diverse and operational portfolio of 51 UK infrastructure assets with a total asset value of £1.1bn and a net asset value (NAV) of £953m, two-thirds of which is focused on renewables, and 41% of investments by value have some form of inflation protection. The portfolio is also well-positioned to benefit from the global trends of decarbonisation, energy security and population dynamics. The fund’s January capital markets day saw the board and management reconfirm the capital reallocation policy for the coming year, which consists of asset disposals and refinancing to position the fund in the strongest possible position.

Written by

Harry Kilby

Analyst

iStock-1436258536

Investment Companies

GCP Infrastructure Investments

Key takeaways from capital markets day

Investment trusts

QuickView

12 February 2024

Price

70p

Market cap

£610m

NAV*

£953m

Share details

NAV/share

110p

Discount to NAV*

35%

*Including income.

Yield

10%

Code/ISIN

GCP/JE00B6173J15

Primary exchange

LSE

AIC sector

Infrastructure

52-week high/low

101p 60p

NAV* high/low

114p 96p

*Including income

Fund description

GCP Infrastructure invests in UK infrastructure assets that benefit from public-sector-backed cash flows, with a focus on debt. The fund’s objectives are to provide shareholders with regular, sustained, long-term dividends and to preserve the capital value of its infrastructure assets over the long term. The company has set a dividend target of 7.0p per share for the current financial year. GCP pays attractive risk-adjusted income, while being diversified across a wide range of infrastructure sectors, focusing on the preservation of capital. GCP has had a strong ESG focus since IPO of investing in social infrastructure, as well as creating a significant positive environmental impact.

Analysts

Harry Kilby

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

GCP Infrastructure Investments (GCP) has a mature, diverse and operational portfolio of 51 UK infrastructure assets with a total asset value of £1.1bn and a net asset value (NAV) of £953m, two-thirds of which is focused on renewables, and 41% of investments by value have some form of inflation protection. The portfolio is also well-positioned to benefit from the global trends of decarbonisation, energy security and population dynamics. The fund’s January capital markets day saw the board and management reconfirm the capital reallocation policy for the coming year, which consists of asset disposals and refinancing to position the fund in the strongest possible position.

Capital allocation strategy for 2024

GCP’s capital allocation strategy for 2024 of asset disposals and refinancing is focused on reducing the fund’s leverage position (£104m currently drawn from the fund’s revolving credit facility), returning capital to investors (minimum capital return of £50m in 2024 to shareholders, potentially via share buybacks or tender offer) and rebalancing the portfolio (away from equity towards debt). The total value of the potential asset disposals is c £500m, however the fund has set a base case target of £150m before the end of 2024. The four sectors in which the fund will most actively pursue asset disposals are supported living (£112m total portfolio exposure), onshore wind (£185m total portfolio exposure), rooftop solar (£102m total portfolio exposure) and anaerobic digestion (£99m total portfolio exposure) The overall aim of GCP’s capital re-allocation programme is to cycle out sectors within its portfolio (supported living), reduce NAV volatility to electricity prices, shorten duration (supported living) and refocus the portfolio’s position on debt.

Upside of recycling capital from asset disposals

The fund is trading at a 35% discount to NAV, the biggest discount in its 13-year history. This largely materialised in 2023 and mirrors the wider investment trust landscape, where discounts have emerged in a rising interest rate environment as investors have been drawn to money market funds and UK gilts over traditional investment trusts. There is potential upside therefore in repositioning the fund through the disposal of assets and then reinvesting capital by buying back stock while the fund is trading at such a significant discount to NAV. As an illustration, even if the select assets were sold at a 20% discount to NAV, there would still be significant upside in recycling the capital, given the fund is trading at a 35% discount.

Towards a debt focused portfolio in 2024

The fund trades at a c 10% dividend yield (1.23x covered for the 12 months to 30 September 2023) and offers a potential additional return of 54% if its discount to NAV were to close. On the date of the CMD, GCP highlighted the discount rate implied by the stock price is 18.8%, well above the applied NAV discount rate of 7.7% – for a portfolio that is returning 7.9% and increasingly shifting towards wholly debt investments, this seems surprising.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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