4imprint Group — Holding steady against uncertain backdrop

4imprint Group (LSE: FOUR)

Last close As at 20/05/2025

GBP35.10

−30.00 (−0.85%)

Market capitalisation

GBP989m

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Research: TMT

4imprint Group — Holding steady against uncertain backdrop

4imprint’s AGM statement outlines flat revenues year-on-year for the first four months, with order intake levels running around 2% down and stable average order values. We view this as a respectable result against the continuing uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. While the threat of the most severe tariffs may have receded for now, the impact is still likely to be felt in H225 even if lower tariff levels are agreed, as existing stock and goods in transit sell through. Suppliers (and distributors) await clarity to inform their decision-making, with supply chains inevitably disrupted. With its strong balance sheet and market positioning, 4imprint is better placed than many in the sector both to weather the disruption and to build further market share. Our forecasts had already factored in a softer macroeconomic backdrop, and we leave them unchanged at this juncture.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Media

AGM trading update

21 May 2025

Price 3,510.00p
Market cap £989m

$1.34/£

Net cash at end FY24

$148.0m

Shares in issue

28.2m
Free float 97.6%
Code FOUR
Primary exchange LSE
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 26.2 (27.9) (37.9)
52-week high/low 5,910.3p 2,653.8p

Business description

4imprint Group is a leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY24, 98% of revenues were generated in the US and Canada.

Next events

H125 results

6 August 2025

Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

4imprint Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. DPS excludes special dividends.

Year end Revenue ($m) PBT ($m) EPS (¢) DPS (¢) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 1,326.5 140.7 377.85 215.00 12.4 4.6
12/24 1,367.9 154.4 416.27 240.00 11.3 5.1
12/25e 1,320.0 144.1 388.27 255.00 12.1 5.4
12/26e 1,390.1 156.3 417.66 270.00 11.2 5.7

US policy vacillations affect planning

Uncertainty is the most difficult backdrop to plan against, and large swings in potential outcomes from trade policies and tariffs continue to affect both suppliers and distributors. The 90-day freeze to allow for further trade negotiations between the US and China expires on 12 July, at which point there may be either a decision on tariff rates or a further extension. Either way, the repercussions will play out in the second half of the year and through FY26. The reactions of US consumers to the impending resultant inflation will likely also filter through to the confidence in the corporate market, which is already braced for price increases. We would hope for greater clarity by 4imprint’s interim results in early August.

Steady hands at the tiller

4imprint has a strong balance sheet (end FY24 net cash of $148m), allowing it flexibility in how it handles the market challenges, as it did across the COVID-affected trading periods. Its strong supplier relationships are a real asset in these conditions, although there are likely to be some shifts in sourcing. This will depend on the eventual differential between tariffs on Chinese imports and those from other markets. 4imprint’s key strength remains its ability to flex the marketing levers to manage the balancing act between top line and operating margin.

Valuation: Still well below DCF

4imprint’s share price is down 24% year-to-date, but the valuation remains well ahead of the marketing services sector, reflecting its earnings quality, attractive cash conversion and distribution policies, in our view. A discounted cash flow (WACC of 9%, terminal growth of 3%, as before) gives an implied value of £52.35/share, down from March’s figure of £52.89 on exchange rates, but still well ahead of the current share price.

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London, WC1R 4PS

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