Hogg Robinson Group
Hogg Robinson Group |
Doing things smarter |
Half-year results |
Support services |
5 December 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Hogg Robinson Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Hogg Robinson (HRG) continues to please with 12% growth in trading profit in the half to September. Currency boost apart, there was a further solid underlying advance (7%) by its main activity, travel management, despite 4% lower revenue in testing conditions. Increasing payoff from restructuring and technology-driven efficiencies reinforces confidence in HRG’s ability “to do things smarter” and in our forecasts, which are maintained on a constant currency basis but increased now owing to FX. Cash generation (net debt/EBITDA of just 0.5x for the last 12 months) remains strong, allowing welcome investment and dividend flexibility.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/15 |
330.1 |
30.5 |
6.6 |
2.32 |
9.7 |
3.6 |
03/16 |
318.3 |
32.2 |
7.2 |
2.51 |
8.9 |
3.9 |
03/17e |
332.0 |
35.5 |
7.6 |
2.65 |
8.4 |
4.1 |
03/18e |
330.0 |
37.5 |
8.0 |
2.80 |
8.0 |
4.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Good progress in H1
HRG is on course to meet market expectations for the current year. The aforementioned gain by travel management (constant currency trading margin up from 11.7% to 12.9%) highlights the strength of the fee-based model and effective cost control (revenue per employee up 3%). While in part a function of the trend to online self-booking by clients (from 49% to 51%), revenue softness reflected challenging conditions, notably in Australia and Norway, in addition to aggressive competitor pricing. Fraedom performed well with important banking signings, but its profit (-12% constant currency) was curbed by investment to support the continued pace of growth. Overall, H1 saw good new business wins and expansion of relationships, as well as an ongoing high retention rate. Cash generation was robust with free cash inflow up 55% on H116.
Forecasts raised for FX
Favourable translation drives our upgrades for this year and next (our previous PBT forecasts were respectively £34.0m and £34.5m). Otherwise our adjustment is only for greater caution about Europe and Fraedom (short-term investment impact) offset by a stronger pickup in North America and Asia-Pacific.
Valuation: Underrated
Notwithstanding market pressures, HRG’s success in delivering on key objectives and consequent proximity to potentially transformative opportunities (eg step-change growth at Fraedom) are not being recognised in current valuations. The FY17e P/E rating is low (under 9x) against that of the FTAS UK Support Services sector (c 14x), while there is commitment to a progressive dividend (up 8% in FY16). Volatility in the pension deficit (up sharply in the half but then falling) largely reflects lower bond yields and the current payment plan is in place until 2017.
Financial summary
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
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Year-end March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
330,100 |
318,300 |
332,000 |
330,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
53,400 |
55,500 |
60,000 |
62,000 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except) |
|
|
42,500 |
44,800 |
48,500 |
50,500 |
Exceptional Items |
(6,300) |
(4,800) |
(4,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Amortisation of Acquired Intangibles |
(1,000) |
(700) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Associates/JVs |
1,100 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
||
Operating Profit |
36,300 |
40,300 |
44,500 |
48,500 |
||
Net Interest |
(13,100) |
(13,600) |
(14,000) |
(14,000) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
30,500 |
32,200 |
35,500 |
37,500 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
23,200 |
26,700 |
30,500 |
34,500 |
Tax |
(7,500) |
(7,400) |
(8,500) |
(9,700) |
||
Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings |
(800) |
(1,000) |
(1,400) |
(800) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
23,000 |
24,800 |
27,000 |
27,800 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
15,700 |
19,300 |
22,000 |
24,800 |
||
Minority charge |
(1,000) |
(600) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
322.7 |
324.2 |
325.0 |
325.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
6.57 |
7.16 |
7.57 |
7.99 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
4.56 |
5.77 |
6.46 |
7.31 |
Dividend per share (p) |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
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EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.2 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.8 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
12.9 |
14.1 |
14.6 |
15.3 |
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BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
304,500 |
305,400 |
340,000 |
345,000 |
Intangible Assets |
236,800 |
242,100 |
255,000 |
260,000 |
||
Tangible Assets |
9,800 |
8,800 |
9,000 |
9,000 |
||
Investments |
57,900 |
54,500 |
76,000 |
76,000 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
145,800 |
139,000 |
150,000 |
160,000 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
105,500 |
93,300 |
100,000 |
105,000 |
||
Cash |
38,400 |
43,800 |
48,000 |
53,000 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(167,700) |
(159,500) |
(163,000) |
(187,000) |
Creditors |
(167,600) |
(149,500) |
(148,000) |
(147,000) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(100) |
(10,000) |
(15,000) |
(40,000) |
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Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(355,400) |
(334,800) |
(447,000) |
(424,000) |
Long term borrowings |
(93,000) |
(67,400) |
(57,000) |
(24,000) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(262,400) |
(267,400) |
(390,000) |
(400,000) |
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Net Assets |
|
|
(72,800) |
(49,900) |
(120,000) |
(106,000) |
CASH FLOW |
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Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
39,900 |
48,100 |
43,000 |
46,000 |
Net Interest |
(4,300) |
(4,200) |
(4,000) |
(3,700) |
||
Tax |
(4,000) |
(5,400) |
(9,000) |
(6,000) |
||
Capex |
(11,300) |
(8,300) |
(12,000) |
(12,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
(2,600) |
(1,400) |
(100) |
(2,600) |
||
Dividends |
(7,100) |
(7,700) |
(8,300) |
(8,700) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
10,600 |
21,100 |
9,600 |
13,000 |
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Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
65,300 |
54,700 |
33,600 |
24,000 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
54,700 |
33,600 |
24,000 |
11,000 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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