Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
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Research: TMT
Osirium has announced a new customer in the telecoms sector, won in collaboration with partner Infradata. The three-year contract uses the full privileged access management (PAM) suite, including Osirium’s unique workflow automation technology. The company has also confirmed that bookings for FY20 are likely to be ahead of consensus expectations. We maintain our forecasts pending the year-end trading update in January, when the scale of bookings upside will be clearer.
Osirium Technologies |
H2 order intake stronger than expected |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
2 December 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Osirium Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Osirium has announced a new customer in the telecoms sector, won in collaboration with partner Infradata. The three-year contract uses the full privileged access management (PAM) suite, including Osirium’s unique workflow automation technology. The company has also confirmed that bookings for FY20 are likely to be ahead of consensus expectations. We maintain our forecasts pending the year-end trading update in January, when the scale of bookings upside will be clearer.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/sales |
12/18 |
0.96 |
(1.77) |
(18.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
2.6 |
12/19 |
1.17 |
(2.15) |
(19.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
2.1 |
12/20e |
1.40 |
(1.94) |
(16.0) |
0.0 |
N/A |
1.8 |
12/21e |
1.68 |
(1.82) |
(16.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
1.5 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Competitive win in telecoms sector
Osirium has signed a three-year licence with a UK provider of telephone, broadband and mobile services. The customer will make use of Osirium’s PAM, privileged task management and privileged session management modules as well as consultancy and training. Osirium worked with partner Infradata to win the bid against a number of other PAM vendors.
Orders running ahead
Osirium expects to report bookings ahead of consensus forecasts for FY20. The company saw a bookings decline in H120, as lockdown made it harder to sign new business in Q2, but since Q3 there has been recovery in demand, with a number of new customers signed up across various sectors and countries. With a month of Q420 still to go, we maintain our forecasts and will seek further clarity on the bookings position when Osirium provides a trading update in January.
Valuation: Bookings the key driver
Osirium is trading at a discount to peers on an EV/sales basis. As it is an early-stage company several years from profitability, we have performed a reverse DCF to analyse the assumptions factored into the current share price, using a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We estimate the current share price is discounting average bookings growth of 24% for FY22–29e, break-even EBITDA in FY25, average EBITDA margins of -3.7% for FY22–29e and a terminal EBITDA margin of 37.2%.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'k |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
|||||||||||||||||||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||||||||||||||||||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
120.0 |
207.0 |
290.2 |
477.6 |
647.6 |
957.5 |
1,171.6 |
1,399.2 |
1,676.2 |
|||||||||||||||||
EBITDA |
|
|
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,767.3) |
(2,152.1) |
(1,914.0) |
(1,824.3) |
|||||||||||||||||
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(679.4) |
(714.3) |
(790.7) |
(1,725.6) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,674.8) |
(3,399.7) |
(3,459.2) |
(3,588.3) |
|||||||||||||||||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
(184.3) |
(56.4) |
(96.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Reported operating profit |
(679.4) |
(898.5) |
(847.1) |
(1,822.5) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,674.8) |
(3,399.7) |
(3,459.2) |
(3,588.3) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net Interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
(0.6) |
(52.2) |
(204.6) |
(204.6) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(708.5) |
(800.7) |
(1,715.9) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,675.4) |
(3,451.9) |
(3,663.8) |
(3,792.9) |
|||||||||||||||||
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(892.8) |
(857.1) |
(1,812.8) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,675.4) |
(3,451.9) |
(3,663.8) |
(3,792.9) |
|||||||||||||||||
Reported tax |
137.7 |
134.1 |
121.0 |
453.3 |
409.4 |
407.6 |
622.5 |
549.6 |
568.9 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,829.4) |
(3,114.2) |
(3,224.0) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,829.4) |
(3,114.2) |
(3,224.0) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net income (normalised) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,829.4) |
(3,114.2) |
(3,224.0) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net income (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,829.4) |
(3,114.2) |
(3,224.0) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m) |
0 |
1 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
|||||||||||||||||||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.45) |
(15.97) |
(16.54) |
|||||||||||||||||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.45) |
(15.97) |
(16.54) |
|||||||||||||||||
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
(296.36) |
(144.92) |
(7.08) |
(13.08) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.45) |
(15.97) |
(16.54) |
|||||||||||||||||
Dividend (p) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Revenue growth (%) |
26.3 |
72.6 |
40.2 |
64.6 |
35.6 |
47.9 |
22.4 |
19.4 |
19.8 |
|||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-305.7 |
-158.0 |
-130.2 |
-238.0 |
-248.5 |
-184.6 |
-183.7 |
-136.8 |
-108.8 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-566.3 |
-345.0 |
-272.5 |
-361.3 |
-354.7 |
-279.4 |
-290.2 |
-247.2 |
-214.1 |
|||||||||||||||||||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
815.7 |
805.2 |
799.7 |
1,178.8 |
1,812.1 |
2,360.2 |
3,124.4 |
3,440.8 |
3,629.8 |
|||||||||||||||||
Intangible Assets |
808.6 |
795.7 |
793.3 |
1,134.5 |
1,731.9 |
2,307.2 |
2,936.5 |
3,321.3 |
3,578.7 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Tangible Assets |
7.2 |
9.5 |
6.4 |
44.3 |
80.2 |
52.9 |
187.9 |
119.5 |
51.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Current Assets |
|
|
109.3 |
269.2 |
428.1 |
3,953.7 |
1,646.4 |
3,134.6 |
4,837.3 |
1,707.5 |
1,852.4 |
|||||||||||||||||
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Debtors |
77.2 |
218.6 |
154.6 |
380.9 |
622.6 |
748.0 |
982.4 |
1,056.8 |
1,155.5 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Cash & cash equivalents |
32.2 |
50.6 |
273.5 |
3,572.8 |
1,023.8 |
2,386.6 |
3,854.9 |
650.7 |
697.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,170.3) |
(1,923.0) |
(2,055.3) |
(2,444.5) |
|||||||||||||||||
Creditors |
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,170.3) |
(1,889.1) |
(2,021.4) |
(2,410.6) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(33.9) |
(33.9) |
(33.9) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(952.5) |
(487.6) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(2,422.4) |
(2,591.0) |
(5,759.5) |
|||||||||||||||||
Long term borrowings |
(789.0) |
(323.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(2,345.4) |
(2,547.9) |
(5,750.4) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Other long term liabilities |
(163.4) |
(163.9) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(77.0) |
(43.1) |
(9.1) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net Assets |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,324.5 |
3,616.3 |
502.0 |
(2,721.9) |
|||||||||||||||||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,324.5 |
3,616.3 |
502.0 |
(2,721.9) |
|||||||||||||||||
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,767.3) |
(2,152.1) |
(1,914.0) |
(1,824.3) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Working capital |
66.3 |
3.8 |
120.7 |
226.8 |
85.5 |
187.2 |
633.7 |
57.8 |
290.6 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Exceptional & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Tax |
109.8 |
48.4 |
134.6 |
120.4 |
291.4 |
407.6 |
473.3 |
549.6 |
568.9 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(190.6) |
(274.9) |
(122.6) |
(789.4) |
(1,232.5) |
(1,172.5) |
(1,045.1) |
(1,306.6) |
(964.8) |
|||||||||||||||||
Capex |
(412.8) |
(376.7) |
(407.3) |
(968.0) |
(1,320.6) |
(1,455.7) |
(1,852.8) |
(1,861.6) |
(1,952.9) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
639.3 |
762.8 |
5,047.1 |
0.0 |
3,991.5 |
1,726.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(60.6) |
(36.0) |
(36.0) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Net Cash Flow |
(638.6) |
(6.5) |
222.9 |
3,299.3 |
(2,549.0) |
1,362.8 |
(1,231.7) |
(3,204.2) |
(2,953.7) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Opening net (cash)/debt |
|
|
118.3 |
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,386.6) |
(1,509.5) |
1,897.2 |
|||||||||||||||||
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
490.3 |
323.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
354.6 |
(202.5) |
(202.5) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Closing net (cash)/debt |
|
|
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,386.6) |
(1,509.5) |
1,897.2 |
5,053.5 |
|||||||||||||||||
Source: Osirium, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
Boku has released a trading update confirming that EBITDA is likely to be ahead of consensus expectations for FY20. As most of the upside is due to COVID-19-related cost savings, we have upgraded our FY20 EBITDA and EPS forecasts by 10% and 15%, respectively. We leave our FY21/22 forecasts unchanged, pending a more detailed trading update in January that will cover the busy December holiday season.