Accsys Technologies — FY23 results better than expected

Accsys Technologies (AIM: AXS)

Last close As at 19/04/2024

GBP0.56

−3.00 (−5.08%)

Market capitalisation

GBP135m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Accsys Technologies — FY23 results better than expected

Accsys’s FY23 results were slightly better than expected, with mainly higher pricing making the difference. Revenue growth of 34% y-o-y was driven by volume growth of 6% and higher average sales prices. EBITDA was +120% y-o-y and clearly benefited from higher prices, more than offsetting the input pressure. There was no further news on the construction of the Accoya plant in the United States (on track and planned to be operational mid-2024) or the Tricoya plant in Hull (construction is still on hold but management is a firm believer in its value proposition). We rolled over our discounted cash flow (DCF) by one year, now pointing at a value of €1.25 per share (previously €1.15).

Johan van den Hooven

Written by

Johan van den Hooven

Analyst

Industrials

Accsys Technologies

FY23 results better than expected

FY23 results review

General industries

13 July 2023

Price

90p/€1.02

Market cap

£197m/€224m

€1.17/£

Net debt (€m) at 31 March 2023

44.1

Shares in issue

219.4m

Free float

35%

Code

AXS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

Euronext Amsterdam

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

20.0

41.7

(11.3)

Rel (local)

22.7

48.8

(13.2)

52-week high/low

102p

54p

Business description

Accsys Technologies is a chemical technology company focused on the development and commercialisation of a range of transformational technologies based on the acetylation of solid wood and wood elements for use as high-performance, environmentally sustainable construction materials.

Next events

H124 results

October 2023

Analyst

Johan van den Hooven

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Accsys Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Accsys’s FY23 results were slightly better than expected, with mainly higher pricing making the difference. Revenue growth of 34% y-o-y was driven by volume growth of 6% and higher average sales prices. EBITDA was +120% y-o-y and clearly benefited from higher prices, more than offsetting the input pressure. There was no further news on the construction of the Accoya plant in the United States (on track and planned to be operational mid-2024) or the Tricoya plant in Hull (construction is still on hold but management is a firm believer in its value proposition). We rolled over our discounted cash flow (DCF) by one year, now pointing at a value of €1.25 per share (previously €1.15).

Year

end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA*
(€m)

Net profit*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

EV/sales
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

03/22

120.9

10.4

1.9

0.01

3.3

38.1

03/23

162.1

22.9

9.5

0.05

1.5

10.2

03/24e

174.0

24.2

8.1

0.04

1.4

9.1

03/25e

190.8

32.1

15.4

0.07

1.2

6.9

Note: *EBITDA, net profit and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. EBITDA includes 60% share in Accoya US joint venture.

FY23 EBITDA more than doubled

FY23 revenues (ending 31 March) increased 34% y-o-y to €162m, driven by 6% higher volumes and higher average sales prices (including the implementation of an energy price premium). Gross margin expanded by 420bp, mainly driven by higher prices, more than offsetting the input pressure. Underlying EBITDA increased by 120% y-o-y to €22.9m and exceeded company guidance of doubling EBITDA. We have lowered our FY24 estimates for a slower-than-expected ramp up in Arnhem and higher sales and marketing costs (as communicated by management). However, we have left our FY25 sales and EBITDA estimates broadly unchanged.

Working towards completion of the Accoya US plant

There was little news on the two construction projects. The Accoya US joint venture (JV) is making good progress with the construction of the 43,000m³ Accoya plant and in FY24 the partners will work towards completion of the facility, which is expected to be operational mid-2024. The construction of the Tricoya plant in Hull has been on hold since November 2022. Management commented that it still believes in the value proposition of completing Hull and will continue to explore funding options to finance further construction, for which an amount up to €35m is needed (unchanged from last predictions).

Valuation: DCF offers further upside

Accsys is currently trading at an EV/sales multiple of 1.4x and EV/EBITDA of 9.1x in FY24e. We have kept our medium-term estimates broadly unchanged and have rolled over our DCF by one year. Our DCF for the four reactors in Arnhem and the Accoya US JV indicates a value per share of around €1.10 (previously €0.95). The option value for the Hull project adds >€0.15 (down from €0.20 previously because it will take longer to be operational as no decision has been taken yet on whether to continue). This totals a group value per share of €1.25 (previously €1.15).

FY23 results slightly exceeded expectations

Accsys’s FY23 results were slightly better than we had expected, even considering we had already raised our estimates following the company’s trading update on 3 May 2023. As previously announced, Accoya volumes were up 6% y-o-y to 63,344m³, after the decline of 19% in the first half, which was caused by the Arnhem plant shutdown in April and May around the installation of the fourth reactor. As reactors 1–3 returned to production and reactor four has been ramping up from September 2022, volumes showed a strong increase of 64% y-o-y in the second half (company guidance was for a 50% increase). During the analyst call, management noted that the annual maintenance stop was in H1 rather than in H2, which has supported volume growth in the second half.

Sales of wood to off-take partners Medite and Finsa for the manufacture of Tricoya panels were up 18% y-o-y, representing 24% of total volumes (FY22: 22%). Volumes to Accoya customers increased 3% y-o-y with broadly flat volumes in the UK and Ireland and Rest of Europe but a 10% increase in volumes to the United States for market seeding of the new Accoya plant, which is planned to be operational in mid-2024.

Revenues increased 34% y-o-y to €162m, driven by volumes growth and higher average selling prices, including the energy price premium (surcharge to cover the strong increase in acetyls prices). The strong growth in Accoya Color, which carries around 25% higher prices than standard Accoya, had a positive mix effect. Sales prices were raised over the past year to offset the higher raw material costs, particularly for acetyls. Revenues from Accoya wood rose 37% y-o-y to €143.5m, on 6% higher volumes and significantly higher average sales prices. Revenues from the by-product acetic acid increased 23% y-o-y to €16.8m, which was volume and price driven. The balance of the €162m group revenue came from Accoya licence revenue of €0.3m (FY22: 0.4m) and Tricoya revenues of €1.5m (FY22: €1.5m).

Exhibit 1: FY23 normalised results (ending 31 March 2023)

€m

FY22

FY23

Change y-o-y

Revenues

120.9

162.0

34%

Accoya wood volumes, m3

59,649

63,344

6%

Gross margin

29.8%

34.0%

EBITDA normalised

10.4

22.9

120%

Profit before tax normalised

1.3

11.0

746%

Net profit normalised

1.9

9.5

500%

Source: Accsys, Edison Investment Research

Gross margin increased 420bp to 34%, mainly driven by the higher average sales prices, thereby more than offsetting the impact of higher input costs. Accsys experienced a 19% increase in net acetyls and moderately higher wood costs. Gross margin is well above the company’s target of at least 30%.

Driven by higher volumes and higher average sales prices, underlying EBITDA showed a clear improvement: +120% to €22.9m. Accsys defines underlying EBITDA as the underlying EBITDA at group level (ie Accoya Arnhem, Tricoya, Corporate and R&D) and includes the group’s attributable share of the Accoya US JV’s underlying EBITDA, although the 60%/40% JV is equity accounted for. Group EBITDA increased from €10.6m to €23.6m and the company’s share in the EBITDA loss of the JV increased from €0.2m last year to €0.7m this year.

Exhibit 2 shows the development in EBITDA in FY23, with clearly the highest impact coming from the higher average sales prices. From the total price impact of €30.7m, sales price increases had an impact of €23.3m, the energy price premium €3.9m and currencies €3.5m. The energy price premium is no longer in place.

Reported EBITDA included an impairment of €86m related to the changed ownership of the Tricoya consortium (Accsys owns the full 100% since November 2022), the expected additional capex needed to complete the plant (unchanged at up to €35m) and the lowered expected output of the Hull plant (we assume for accounting reasons only to be more conservative).

Exhibit 2: EBITDA development

Source: Accsys

Reported net loss was €39.9m, with the main impact from the above-mentioned impairment (partly compensated for by the positive impairment effect via minority interest of around €30m). Underlying net profit jumped from €1.9m last year to €9.5m this year with EPS at €0.05.

Exhibit 3: Net debt development

Source: Accsys

Total investments were €58.9m, with €7.9m investments in Arnhem, €20.1m in Hull and €29m in the Accoya US JV. As previously indicated on 3 May, net debt was up €16.9m to €44.1m, mainly due to the higher investments. Exhibit 3 shows the development of net debt during FY23.

Update on strategic projects

There was little news on the two construction projects. The Accoya US JV is making good progress with the construction of the 43,000m³ Accoya plant, and in FY24 the partners will work towards the completion of the facility. It is still planned to be operational mid-2024 (July/August) following the previously mentioned delay and cost overruns (unspecified). We estimate potential revenues of €105m by CY27. This 60%/40% JV is equity accounted so will not be consolidated in Accsys P&L and only appear as ‘net result of JV’. The company, however, does include its 60% share of the EBITDA of the Accoya US JV when it mentions group underlying EBITDA.

The construction of the Tricoya plant in Hull has been on hold since November 2022. Management commented that it still believes in the value proposition of completing Hull and will continue to explore funding options to finance further construction, for which up to €35m is needed (unchanged from previous estimates). Funding discussions have been held but agreeable terms have not been reached yet. In the absence of third-party funding, Accsys will use modest levels of its cash flow to maintain the plant and progress certain pre-construction work. Funding Hull out of its own cash flows will, of course, take the longest until completion of the plant, but the willingness to do so proves that management wants to continue with the construction. The previously announced production volume forecast of the Hull plant was up to 30,000 metric tonnes (or 40,000m³) but for the impairment test of the Hull facility a reduced production volume of 24,000 metric tonnes was used. We still believe that the construction of the Tricoya plant will be continued but it is unlikely to be operational before CY25.

Slightly higher EBITDA estimates

According to Accsys, demand for both its products Accoya and Tricoya remains strong as customers seek products that deliver outstanding performance, durability and sustainability. Accsys does not provide any guidance for FY24. The company stated that it has made a good start to FY24 without being more specific. Management commented that it expects to leverage the benefits from greater economies of scale combined with the anticipated higher production levels (reactor four in Arnhem further ramping up and contributing for the full year instead of seven months in FY23). This suggests higher volumes and higher margins. On the other hand, the company also mentioned some softening of price (the energy surcharge is no longer in place) and higher costs related to the completion of the Accoya plant in Kingsport (eg hiring staff).

We have lowered our FY24 revenue forecast by 6%, as we now expect a more gradual ramp up of the fourth reactor in Arnhem (which will be caught up in FY25), combined with a decline in average sales prices of 10% as the energy price premium is no longer in place (previously 5%). We estimate revenue growth of 7% y-o-y in FY24. For FY25, we expect 10% y-o-y revenue growth with flat pricing and Arnhem nearing its full capacity.

We anticipate that gross margin will normalise towards 32.5% in FY24 and FY25 after the very strong 34% in FY23, which was driven by the significantly higher average sales prices. We have lowered our EBITDA estimate for FY24 to €24.2m (reflecting growth of 6%), due to the anticipated lower gross margin and also higher sales and marketing costs in both Europe and USA (as communicated by management). We have left our FY25 EBITDA forecast broadly unchanged at €32.1m, driven by economies of scale as Arnhem is expected to near full capacity. This reflects 33% growth in EBITDA in FY25. Please note that the EBITDA mentioned includes Accsys’s 60% share in the Accoya US JV with Eastman, which we expect to be close to EBITDA breakeven in FY25 after a loss in FY24.

Exhibit 4: Change in P&L estimates

€m

FY23

FY24e

FY25e

Old

Actual

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Sales

159.8

162.1

1.4%

184.4

174.0

-5.6%

192.6

190.8

-0.9%

Gross margin

31.2%

34.0%

31.6%

32.6%

31.6%

32.7%

EBITDA normalised *

21.7

22.9

5.7%

26.7

24.2

-9.5%

32.8

32.1

-2.0%

EBITDA margin

13.6%

14.6%

14.5%

15.0%

17.0%

16.8%

Net profit (reported)

-16.1

-39.0

12.4

8.1

-34.6%

18.3

15.4

-16.1%

Net profit (normalised)

10.2

9.5

-6.6%

12.4

8.1

-34.6%

18.3

15.4

-16.1%

Source: Edison Investment Research. * EBITDA includes 60% share in Accoya US JV

Higher valuation on higher estimates

We value Accsys using a DCF model as there are no other listed companies with a similar business profile. The company currently is trading at 1.4x EV/sales and 9.1x EV/EBITDA in FY24e.

Our model includes the estimates for the four reactors in Arnhem as we have taken our Hull estimates out, awaiting further announcements. We add a separate value for the Accoya plant in the United States, which we still expect to be operational in mid-2024 (July/August) following the start of construction in April 2022.

As we have left our medium-term estimates broadly unchanged but rolled over our DCF by one year, the DCF value of the four reactors in Arnhem and the Accoya US JV now indicates a higher value per share of around €1.10, versus previously €0.95. The option value for the Hull project adds >€0.15 (down from €0.20 previously because it will take longer to be operational as no decision has been taken yet on whether to continue). This totals a group value of €1.25 per share (previously €1.15).


Exhibit 5: Financial summary

€m

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24e

FY25e

31-March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue (reported)

99.8

120.9

162.1

174.0

190.8

Gross Profit

33.1

36.0

55.2

56.7

62.3

EBITDA underlying, Accsys definition (incl share Accoya USA JV)

10.1

10.4

22.9

24.2

32.1

EBITDA underlying, excl share Accoya USA JV

10.1

10.6

23.6

26.1

32.0

EBITDA reported

10.2

10.3

22.2

26.1

32.0

Depreciation & Amortisation

(5.7)

(6.2)

(8.3)

(9.3)

(9.5)

EBIT normalised

4.4

4.2

15.3

16.8

22.5

Exceptionals (Edison definition)

0.1

(0.1)

(87.5)

0.0

0.0

EBIT reported

4.5

4.1

(-72.1)

16.8

22.5

Net Interest

(4.1)

(2.3)

6.1

(3.7)

(4.2)

Result of associates / Accoya USA JV

(0.1)

0.0

(1.0)

(3.6)

(1.1)

Profit Before Tax

0.3

1.8

(66.0)

13.1

18.3

Reported tax

(1.3)

(1.0)

(2.8)

(1.3)

(1.8)

Profit After Tax

(0.9)

0.7

(68.8)

11.7

16.4

Minority interests

1.4

1.6

30.8

0.0

0.0

Net profit (normalised)

1.3

1.9

9.5

8.1

15.4

Net profit (reported)

0.3

2.4

(39.0)

8.1

15.4

Average number of shares (m)

164.9

190.4

210.7

219.4

219.4

Average number of shares, diluted (m)

173.3

198.9

219.1

226.4

226.4

EPS normalised (€)

0.01

0.01

0.05

0.04

0.07

EPS normalised diluted (€)

0.00

0.01

0.04

0.04

0.07

EPS reported (€)

0.00

0.01

(0.19)

0.04

0.07

DPS (€)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

Revenue growth

9.8%

21.1%

34.1%

7.4%

9.6%

Gross Margin

33.2%

29.8%

34.0%

32.6%

32.7%

Normalised EBITDA Margin

10.1%

8.8%

14.6%

15.0%

16.8%

Normalised Operating Margin

4.4%

3.5%

9.5%

9.6%

11.8%

Reported EBIT margin

4.5%

3.4%

-44.5%

9.6%

11.8%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

155.6

195.3

151.4

160.6

161.6

Intangible Assets

10.9

10.8

10.5

10.1

9.8

Tangible Assets

144.4

181.3

110.1

111.6

107.9

Investments & other

0.3

3.2

30.9

38.9

43.9

Current Assets

72.5

79.8

75.1

85.7

107.0

Stocks

12.3

20.4

29.9

33.5

36.7

Debtors

9.8

13.2

14.4

15.5

16.9

Other current assets

2.8

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.7

Cash & cash equivalents

47.6

42.1

26.6

32.3

48.7

Current Liabilities

42.3

45.7

42.5

41.4

42.7

Creditors

9.5

16.7

17.9

17.3

18.1

Other current liabilities

22.2

16.4

14.0

13.6

14.1

Short term borrowings

10.6

12.7

10.5

10.5

10.5

Long Term Liabilities

49.2

56.5

61.6

66.6

66.6

Long term borrowings

49.2

56.5

60.2

65.2

65.2

Other long-term liabilities

0.0

0.0

1.4

1.4

1.4

Shareholders' equity

136.6

172.9

122.5

138.3

159.4

Minority interests

37.2

35.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

Balance sheet total

228.1

275.1

226.5

246.3

268.6

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

10.2

10.3

22.2

26.1

32.0

Working capital

8.3

(9.2)

(6.1)

(5.9)

(3.7)

Exceptional & other

(1.9)

(1.5)

6.7

4.1

4.6

Tax

0.1

0.1

0.1

(1.3)

(1.8)

Net interest

3.4

2.9

(6.1)

(3.7)

(4.2)

Net operating cash flow

20.1

2.6

16.7

19.2

26.8

Capex

(12.4)

(45.3)

(30.2)

(10.5)

(5.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.1)

(3.8)

(29.0)

(8.0)

(5.0)

Equity financing

9.4

34.9

19.2

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(3.9)

(3.3)

6.4

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

12.1

(14.9)

(16.9)

0.7

16.3

Opening net debt/(cash), including lease

24.3

12.2

27.2

44.0

43.3

Closing net debt/(cash), including lease

12.2

27.2

44.0

43.3

26.9

Source: Accsys Technologies, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Accsys Technologies and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Accsys Technologies. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Accsys Technologies and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Accsys Technologies. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on Accsys Technologies

View All

Latest from the Industrials sector

View All Industrials content

Research: Healthcare

Nicox — Nicox provides NCX-470 sales potential estimates

Nicox provided details of a US market survey evaluating the commercial potential of its lead candidate, NCX-470, a nitric oxide (NO) donating bimatoprost designed for the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension (OHTN). The independent market research agency commissioned by Nicox confirmed that NCX-470’s therapeutic profile, as shown in prior studies including the Phase III Mont Blanc trial, was positively received by stakeholders. Together with insights from Ocumension Therapeutics, the company’s NCX-470 partner in China and South-East Asia, Nicox estimates that annual global net sales of NCX-470 (excluding Europe) could exceed $300m within eight years of the product’s launch in the US and China, with US net sales estimated at $115–165m by year 8. We believe the US estimates may be conservative, given that US branded bimatoprost (Lumigan, AbbVie) sales exceeded $270m in 2021 and that NCX-470 is differentiated through its additional NO-mediated mechanism of action (in addition to its prostaglandin F2α mediated IOP lowering effects).

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free