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Last close As at 28/03/2023
GBP1.42
▲ 6.50 (4.80%)
Market capitalisation
GBP400m
Research: TMT
Boku expects to report FY21 results in line with our expectations despite currency headwinds, with revenue growth of 22% and EBITDA growth of 31% y-o-y. The company has also agreed to sell its loss-making Identity business for $32.3m in cash to focus on the opportunity in its Payments business. The disposal boosts Boku’s profitability, improves the visibility of the high-margin Payments business and provides cash that can be used to invest in its mobile first (M1ST) payments network.
Boku |
Fully focused on payments |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
19 January 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Boku is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Boku expects to report FY21 results in line with our expectations despite currency headwinds, with revenue growth of 22% and EBITDA growth of 31% y-o-y. The company has also agreed to sell its loss-making Identity business for $32.3m in cash to focus on the opportunity in its Payments business. The disposal boosts Boku’s profitability, improves the visibility of the high-margin Payments business and provides cash that can be used to invest in its mobile first (M1ST) payments network.
Year |
Revenue ($m) |
EBITDA* |
Diluted EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/19 |
50.1 |
7.4** |
1.2 |
0.0 |
190.6 |
79.9 |
12/20 |
56.4 |
15.3 |
3.2 |
0.0 |
71.5 |
38.7 |
12/21e |
69.0 |
20.0 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
58.8 |
29.6 |
12/22e |
69.0 |
23.5 |
4.3 |
0.0 |
52.9 |
25.2 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Excludes one-off revenue recognition.
FY21 traded in line with forecasts
Boku expects to report FY21 total payment volume (TPV) of $8.2bn (+18% y-o-y), revenue of c $69m (+22% y-o-y; Payments $61.9m, Identity $7.1m) and EBITDA of c $20.0m (+31% y-o-y; Payments $22.9m, Identity -$2.9m), in line with our forecasts. Real-time payment and eWallet transactions increased more than fivefold y-o-y, highlighting the potential for these payment methods to fuel revenue growth in the medium term. Management noted that gaming customers did not exhibit typical seasonality in FY21, with much higher demand in H121 versus prior years due to widespread lockdowns in Q121, resulting in flatter sequential growth in H221 than in prior years. Management expects to return to more normal revenue seasonality in FY22.
A pure-play payments business post Identity sale
Boku has agreed to sell its Identity business to Twilio for cash proceeds of $32.3m, leaving the company as a pure-play payments business. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the Identity business disposal and have assumed that the company uses some of the proceeds to ramp up investment in the Payments business. While FY22 revenue is cut by 13%, EBITDA increases by 7%, EBITDA margin increases from 28% to 34% and normalised diluted EPS increases by 11%.
Disposal simplifies valuation approach
Using FY22 forecasts to reflect the disposal of the Identity business, Boku is trading on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.2x, at a 15% discount compared to the payments sector average of 29.8x. Applying the average multiple would imply a share price of 195.7p. We note that payments companies specialising in simplifying complex payment transactions, such as cross-border transactions or local payment methods, command even higher valuations than the likes of Adyen (59x CY22 EBITDA) and Block (57x).
Disposal of Identity business
Boku has agreed to sell its Identity business to Twilio, a cloud communications platform, for $32.3m in cash. $26.1m will be received up front and the remaining $6.2m will be held back to cover indemnities and is payable in two tranches within a maximum of 18 months. This leaves Boku as a pure-play payments business and the company plans to focus its resources on exploiting opportunities in the payments market, in particular expanding its mobile first (M1ST) network of local payment methods, including direct carrier billing, eWallets and real-time payments.
The company intends to use the proceeds to pay down remaining debt (we estimate this stood at c $8m at the end of FY21), to invest in the M1ST network and for general working capital.
Boku originally acquired the business at the start of 2019 for $25.1m, recording goodwill of $23.6m at the time. With the growth of the business taking longer than originally anticipated, the company wrote down goodwill by $20.8m in FY20. We estimate that this will result in a one-off gain on sale of c $28m.
Trading update
Boku has also provided an update on trading in FY21. The table below summarises the expected outturn for the year compared to our prior forecasts. Results for the Identity business are substantially in line with our estimates. Payments revenue is also in line while Payments EBITDA is 2% ahead of our forecast. The company noted that without currency headwinds (specifically the strength of the dollar versus the yen), Payments revenue and EBITDA would have been $2.3m higher in FY21 and TPV $360m higher, implying underlying Payments revenue growth of 25%, an underlying EBITDA margin of 39.3% and underlying TPV growth of 23%.
Exhibit 1: FY21 trading highlights
FY21 expected |
Growth y-o-y |
FY21e |
|
Payments revenue |
$61.9m |
21% |
$61.9m |
Identity revenue (implied) |
$7.1m |
37% |
$7.0m |
Group revenue |
$69.0m |
22% |
$68.9m |
Payments EBITDA |
$22.9m |
21% |
$22.5 |
Identity EBITDA |
-$2.9m |
-26% |
-$2.9m |
Group EBITDA |
$20.0m |
31% |
$19.6m |
Monthly active users |
32.3m |
13% |
N/A |
TPV |
$8.2bn |
18% |
$8.2bn |
Cash at end FY21 |
$62.4m |
27% |
$62.1m |
Average daily cash Dec 2021 |
$50.5m |
8% |
N/A |
Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research
During FY21 the Payments business saw launches for Google, Netflix, DAZN, Spotify, Epic Games, Facebook, Amazon, Riot Games and Tinder across direct carrier billing, eWallets and real-time payments. The number of end user accounts that can be accessed via the M1ST network now exceeds seven billion, of which 42% are eWallet or real-time payment accounts. Monthly active users for real-time payments and eWallets increased nine-fold to more than 1.1m.
Changes to forecasts
We have revised our forecasts to reflect the trading update and the disposal of the Identity business. We have assumed an increase in operating expenses for the Payments business in FY22 and FY23 as a proportion of the proceeds are reinvested in the business.
Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates
$'m |
FY21e |
FY21e |
FY22e |
FY22e |
FY23e |
FY23e |
|||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
||
Payment revenues |
61.9 |
61.9 |
0.0% |
20.8% |
69.0 |
69.0 |
0.0% |
11.5% |
76.1 |
76.1 |
0.0% |
10.3% |
|
Identity revenues |
7.0 |
7.1 |
1.4% |
37.7% |
10.0 |
0.0 |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
13.0 |
0.0 |
-100.0% |
N/A |
|
Total revenues |
68.9 |
69.0 |
0.1% |
22.3% |
79.0 |
69.0 |
-12.7% |
0.0% |
89.1 |
76.1 |
-14.6% |
10.3% |
|
Gross profit |
62.8 |
62.9 |
0.1% |
22.1% |
71.0 |
66.5 |
-6.3% |
5.8% |
79.2 |
73.4 |
-7.4% |
10.3% |
|
Gross margin |
91.2% |
91.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
89.9% |
96.4% |
6.5% |
5.3% |
88.9% |
96.4% |
7.5% |
0.0% |
|
Payment EBITDA |
22.5 |
22.9 |
1.6% |
19.3% |
24.5 |
23.5 |
-4.0% |
2.7% |
28.3 |
27.7 |
-2.1% |
17.8% |
|
Identity EBITDA |
(2.9) |
(2.9) |
-1.5% |
-26.0% |
(2.5) |
0.0 |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
(1.6) |
0.0 |
-100.0% |
N/A |
|
Total EBITDA |
19.6 |
20.0 |
2.1% |
30.9% |
22.0 |
23.5 |
6.9% |
17.5% |
26.7 |
27.7 |
3.5% |
17.8% |
|
Payment EBITDA margin |
36.4% |
37.0% |
0.6% |
-0.4% |
35.5% |
34.1% |
-1.4% |
-2.9% |
37.2% |
36.4% |
-0.8% |
2.3% |
|
Identity EBITDA margin |
-41.9% |
-40.6% |
1.2% |
34.9% |
-25.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
-11.9% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
EBITDA margin |
28.4% |
29.0% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
27.8% |
34.1% |
22.4% |
5.1% |
30.0% |
36.4% |
21.2% |
2.3% |
|
Normalised operating profit |
15.2 |
15.6 |
2.7% |
34.5% |
16.2 |
17.7 |
9.4% |
14.0% |
19.5 |
20.5 |
4.8% |
15.5% |
|
Normalised operating margin |
22.0% |
22.6% |
0.6% |
2.0% |
20.5% |
25.7% |
5.2% |
3.2% |
21.9% |
26.9% |
5.0% |
1.2% |
|
Reported operating profit |
5.1 |
5.5 |
8.0% |
-133.0% |
5.2 |
34.7 |
572.1% |
528.9% |
8.5 |
9.4 |
11.1% |
-72.8% |
|
Reported operating margin |
7.4% |
8.0% |
0.6% |
37.6% |
6.5% |
50.3% |
43.7% |
42.3% |
9.5% |
12.4% |
2.9% |
-37.9% |
|
Normalised PBT |
14.5 |
14.9 |
2.8% |
35.3% |
15.3 |
16.8 |
9.9% |
13.3% |
18.7 |
19.6 |
5.0% |
16.7% |
|
Reported PBT |
4.4 |
4.8 |
9.3% |
-127.8% |
4.3 |
33.8 |
693.7% |
602.5% |
7.6 |
8.6 |
12.3% |
-74.6% |
|
Normalised net income |
11.6 |
11.9 |
2.8% |
35.3% |
12.3 |
13.5 |
9.9% |
13.3% |
14.8 |
15.5 |
5.0% |
15.2% |
|
Reported net income |
4.0 |
4.3 |
9.3% |
-123.0% |
3.6 |
32.9 |
809.9% |
660.2% |
6.5 |
7.3 |
12.3% |
-77.8% |
|
Normalised basic EPS ($) |
0.040 |
0.041 |
3.1% |
27.0% |
0.041 |
0.045 |
10.5% |
11.2% |
0.049 |
0.052 |
5.6% |
14.1% |
|
Normalised diluted EPS ($) |
0.038 |
0.039 |
3.1% |
21.5% |
0.039 |
0.043 |
10.5% |
11.2% |
0.047 |
0.049 |
5.6% |
14.1% |
|
Reported basic EPS ($) |
0.014 |
0.015 |
9.6% |
-121.6% |
0.012 |
0.111 |
815.0% |
645.7% |
0.022 |
0.024 |
13.0% |
-78.0% |
|
Net debt/(cash) |
(62.1) |
(54.3) |
-12.6% |
10.7% |
(80.7) |
(93.8) |
16.3% |
72.8% |
(103.3) |
(121.3) |
17.5% |
29.3% |
|
TPV ($bn) |
8.19 |
8.19 |
0.0% |
18.0% |
9.30 |
9.30 |
0.0% |
13.6% |
10.38 |
10.38 |
0.0% |
11.6% |
|
Take rate |
0.76% |
0.76% |
0.00% |
0.01% |
0.74% |
0.74% |
0.00% |
-0.01% |
0.73% |
0.73% |
0.00% |
-0.01% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
To reflect the disposal of the Identity business, we consider the valuation of Boku on FY22 multiples (NY in the table below). On enterprise value (EV) multiples, the company is trading at a discount to the average of its payment processor peer group on FY22 forecasts. We note that the whole group is trading on lower multiples than when we last wrote in September 2021, with share prices for the group (excluding Boku) down on average 23% and Boku down 19%, while revenue estimates are broadly flat except in the case of Worldline (reflecting a disposal) and Block (reflecting revenue volatility arising from the Bitcoin-focused Cash App business). Valuing Boku on the group average EBITDA multiple for FY22 would result in a share price of 195.7p compared to the current 168.5p share price.
Exhibit 3: Peer valuation multiples
EV/Sales (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E (x) |
FCF yield (x) |
|||||||||
CY |
NY |
NY+1 |
CY |
NY |
NY+1 |
CY |
NY |
NY+1 |
CY |
NY |
NY+1 |
|
Boku |
8.6 |
8.6 |
7.8 |
29.6 |
25.2 |
21.4 |
58.8 |
52.9 |
46.3 |
1.0% |
2.2% |
3.3% |
Adyen |
51.7 |
37.3 |
27.7 |
83.2 |
58.9 |
42.7 |
120.4 |
83.8 |
61.1 |
1.2% |
1.6% |
2.4% |
Bango |
9.3 |
7.4 |
N/A |
30.3 |
22.0 |
N/A |
51.2 |
37.7 |
N/A |
0.0% |
0.0% |
N/A |
Block |
3.5 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
64.1 |
56.7 |
38.0 |
78.7 |
71.8 |
49.3 |
1.1% |
1.5% |
2.3% |
dLocal |
34.6 |
20.3 |
N/A |
87.6 |
53.2 |
N/A |
112.5 |
69.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
FIS |
6.2 |
5.8 |
5.4 |
14.1 |
12.9 |
11.7 |
18.0 |
16.0 |
14.2 |
4.9% |
6.4% |
7.4% |
Fiserv |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
14.6 |
13.1 |
12.0 |
19.6 |
16.9 |
14.7 |
5.3% |
6.4% |
7.0% |
Global Payments |
6.8 |
6.2 |
5.7 |
14.6 |
13.1 |
11.8 |
18.5 |
15.7 |
13.6 |
5.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
PayPal |
8.1 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
28.2 |
24.6 |
19.6 |
38.6 |
33.8 |
26.8 |
2.8% |
3.3% |
4.3% |
Worldline |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
18.0 |
14.1 |
13.1 |
23.5 |
19.3 |
16.5 |
2.9% |
3.9% |
4.9% |
Average Payment Processors |
14.5 |
10.7 |
8.0 |
39.4 |
29.8 |
21.3 |
53.4 |
40.5 |
28.0 |
2.9% |
3.3% |
4.7% |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 17 January)
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
$'m |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
2023e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
24.4 |
35.3 |
50.1 |
56.4 |
69.0 |
69.0 |
76.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(2.3) |
(2.5) |
(5.6) |
(4.9) |
(6.1) |
(2.5) |
(2.7) |
||
Gross Profit |
22.1 |
32.8 |
44.6 |
51.5 |
62.9 |
66.5 |
73.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(2.3) |
6.3 |
10.7 |
15.3 |
20.0 |
23.5 |
27.7 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(4.0) |
4.8 |
4.5 |
11.6 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
20.5 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
(2.2) |
(3.1) |
(3.1) |
(3.1) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2.2) |
(1.4) |
(0.3) |
(21.1) |
1.0 |
28.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(1.5) |
(4.6) |
(6.8) |
(4.9) |
(8.0) |
(8.0) |
(8.0) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(9.0) |
(2.4) |
(4.1) |
(16.7) |
5.5 |
34.7 |
9.4 |
||
Net Interest |
(2.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.9) |
(0.8) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(17.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(6.4) |
4.3 |
4.1 |
11.0 |
14.9 |
16.8 |
19.6 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(28.5) |
(3.0) |
(1.3) |
(17.3) |
4.8 |
33.8 |
8.6 |
Reported tax |
(0.1) |
(1.3) |
1.7 |
(1.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.9) |
(1.3) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(4.8) |
3.4 |
3.2 |
8.8 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(28.7) |
(4.3) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
4.3 |
32.9 |
7.3 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(4.8) |
3.4 |
3.2 |
8.8 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(28.7) |
(4.3) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
4.3 |
32.9 |
7.3 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
150.3 |
217.1 |
246.8 |
273.8 |
291.7 |
297.4 |
300.4 |
||
EPS - basic normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.03) |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
EPS - diluted normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.03) |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
(0.19) |
(0.02) |
0.00 |
(0.07) |
0.01 |
0.11 |
0.02 |
Dividend ($) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
42.0 |
44.5 |
42.2 |
12.5 |
22.3 |
(-0.0) |
10.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
90.7 |
92.9 |
88.9 |
91.3 |
91.1 |
96.4 |
96.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
(9.5) |
17.9 |
21.3 |
27.1 |
29.0 |
34.1 |
36.4 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
(16.5) |
13.7 |
9.0 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
25.7 |
26.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
26.9 |
23.0 |
52.2 |
69.8 |
69.1 |
62.6 |
58.4 |
Intangible Assets |
25.8 |
22.5 |
46.8 |
65.6 |
65.4 |
59.6 |
56.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
0.4 |
0.3 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
||
Investments & other |
0.7 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
79.3 |
84.0 |
89.2 |
155.2 |
201.6 |
260.0 |
300.6 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
59.1 |
51.7 |
53.6 |
92.5 |
137.7 |
164.8 |
177.9 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
18.7 |
31.1 |
34.7 |
61.3 |
62.4 |
93.8 |
121.3 |
||
Other |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(78.0) |
(79.6) |
(81.8) |
(139.7) |
(176.0) |
(193.6) |
(214.8) |
Creditors |
(75.5) |
(77.4) |
(78.0) |
(136.8) |
(174.6) |
(193.5) |
(214.6) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2.5) |
(2.2) |
(2.1) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
(1.7) |
(1.4) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
(2.6) |
(13.6) |
(9.5) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
Long term borrowings |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(10.8) |
(6.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.1) |
(0.8) |
(2.6) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.8) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
28.0 |
26.6 |
57.0 |
71.8 |
85.2 |
126.1 |
141.4 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
28.0 |
26.6 |
57.0 |
71.8 |
85.2 |
126.1 |
141.4 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(2.3) |
6.3 |
7.4 |
15.3 |
20.0 |
23.5 |
27.7 |
||
Working capital |
1.0 |
7.2 |
3.0 |
20.1 |
(7.4) |
(1.9) |
1.8 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(5.5) |
0.2 |
(1.3) |
(3.8) |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(6.8) |
13.5 |
9.0 |
31.3 |
12.6 |
20.6 |
28.5 |
Capex |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(2.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.7) |
(5.8) |
(5.8) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.7) |
(36.6) |
0.0 |
26.1 |
6.2 |
||
Net interest |
(0.9) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(1.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
||
Equity financing |
19.8 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
26.2 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(1.1) |
0.2 |
(1.5) |
(2.6) |
(2.1) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
10.6 |
13.1 |
4.857 |
13.8 |
5.3 |
39.5 |
27.5 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
9.9 |
(16.2) |
(28.9) |
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(54.3) |
(93.8) |
FX |
0.4 |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
15.1 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(16.2) |
(28.9) |
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(54.3) |
(93.8) |
(121.3) |
Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Belluscura is focused on developing oxygen enrichment technologies. Its lead product, X-PLO₂R, is pitched as the world’s first modular portable oxygen concentrator (POC). It received FDA 510(k) clearance in March 2021 and came to the market in September 2021. Early uptake is encouraging, with the company signing five distribution agreements and exceeding its sales volume projections for the year. We expect recent reimbursement approval from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and expansion outside the US, to be the key growth catalysts for the company. Additional product launches (X-PLO₂R CX and X-PLO₂R DX) planned in the next 12 months should add further momentum.
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