Wheaton Precious Metals — Finishing as it means to start

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

Last close As at 12/03/2026

CAD198.85

−3.21 (−1.59%)

Market capitalisation

CAD90,286m

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Finishing as it means to start

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q4 results were slightly above our (top of the range) prior expectations in almost all areas of its business. San Dimas, Penasquito, Antamina and Blackwater all outperformed in terms of production and/or sales, while Salobo effectively matched what were otherwise our extremely bullish estimates based on its copper output (see our previous note). The average realised price for silver was also 7.5% (or US$4.13/oz) ahead of our (Bloomberg-derived) average for the quarter, which was instrumental in driving a US$32.3m (3.9%) positive variance in sales. As a result, adjusted EPS achieved record levels for the fourth quarter in succession and were 3.3% above our forecast for the quarter and 1.4% above our forecast for the year (see Exhibit 1). We have lowered our FY26 EPS estimate by a modest 6.1% to reflect largely operational issues, such as Blackwater’s ten-day mill outage (announced yesterday), although this should be seen within the context of our having upgraded them by 285.2% (officially) and 61.4% (informally) earlier this week. Nevertheless, they remain firmly at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. Note that, at current metals prices, our FY27 EPS estimate doubles from that shown below to US$6.88 per share.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals and mining

Q425/FY25 results and updated FY26 forecasts

13 March 2026

Price C$199.00
Market cap C$91,743m

C$1.3695/US$, US$1.3269/£

Cash at end Q425 (excluding US$7.9m in lease liabilities)

$1,153.6m

Shares in issue

454.0m
Code WPM
Primary exchange TSX
Secondary exchange LSE
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs (0.1) 25.1 98.6
52-week high/low C$226.7 C$95.7

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is the world’s pre-eminent precious metals streaming company, with over 40 high-quality precious metals streams and early deposit agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and Colombia among others.

Next events

Ex-dividend date

31 March 2026

Q126 results

7 May 2026

Q226 results

6 August 2026

Q326 results

5 November 2026

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Year end Revenue ($m) PBT ($m) EPS ($) DPS ($) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/24 1,284.6 752.5 1.41 0.62 103.5 0.4
12/25e 2,314.6 1,605.8 3.02 0.66 48.3 0.5
12/26e 4,211.1 3,009.6 5.61 0.78 26.1 0.5
12/27e 3,221.0 1,809.0 3.43 0.82 42.6 0.6

Valuation: Continuing to trend upwards

Using a capital asset pricing model-type method, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9% per year, we calculate a terminal valuation for WPM of US$90.22 per share (or C$123.26 per share) in FY30 (cf US$90.15 previously), assuming zero long-term growth in real cash flows thereafter (which we think unlikely). If we instead assume 8.2% per year long-term growth in cash flows (ie the average CAGR in the price of gold from 1967 to 2025), our terminal value rises to US$616.99 per share ( C$844.96 per share) and our current valuation to US$410.12 per share ( C$561.66 per share). At an implied growth rate of 6.8% per year therefore, WPM’s share price currently appears to be discounting future compound annual average increases in cash flows per share from FY30 well below historical levels (+17.1% CAGR since FY05), especially given that production is expected to deliver 12.9% per year organic growth between now and FY30 alone. An alternative interpretation is that the market is assuming that current precious metals prices will prevail into FY30 with compound annual average increases in WPM’s cash flows per share thereafter of just 5.0% per year. Otherwise, assuming no purchases of additional streams, we calculate a value per share of US$106.90 (or C$146.71, or £80.56) in FY27, based on a historical multiple of 31.1x contemporary earnings (albeit at a gold price of only US$2,239/oz and a silver price of only US$60.00/oz). At current prices, this value rises by 114.5% to US$230.24 per share ( C$315.98 per share, or £173.52 per share). In the meantime, WPM maintains a premium rating within the sector. However, this would reverse into quite a material discount if metals’ prices remain at current levels into FY27.

Q425/FY25 results compared to Q425/FY25 estimates

Exhibit 1, below, analyses WPM’s Q425/FY25 results relative to our prior expectations:

Updated FY26 forecasts

Our forecasts for FY26 remain little changed in the light of WPM’s Q425 results and are re-presented below:

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