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Research: Oil & Gas
We have updated our valuation of Canacol Energy to reflect management guidance for 2022 and its preliminary expectations for 2021. Our valuation per share decreases to C$5.69 from C$6.12. Management expects gas sales for 2022 to be between 160mmscfd and 200mmscfd, with the midpoint in line with realised average sales for December 2021 of 183mmscfd. Capex of US$172m to US$209m will cover up to 12 exploration and development wells, three of which will step outside the company’s historical core area, as it targets a reserves replacement ratio of over 200%. Management will also focus on progressing work on the Jobo to Medellin pipeline, which will add 100mmscfd of sales capacity by the end of 2024.
Canacol Energy |
Canacol maintains drilling pace going into 2022 |
Guidance update |
Oil & gas |
17 January 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Canacol Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
We have updated our valuation of Canacol Energy to reflect management guidance for 2022 and its preliminary expectations for 2021. Our valuation per share decreases to C$5.69 from C$6.12. Management expects gas sales for 2022 to be between 160mmscfd and 200mmscfd, with the midpoint in line with realised average sales for December 2021 of 183mmscfd. Capex of US$172m to US$209m will cover up to 12 exploration and development wells, three of which will step outside the company’s historical core area, as it targets a reserves replacement ratio of over 200%. Management will also focus on progressing work on the Jobo to Medellin pipeline, which will add 100mmscfd of sales capacity by the end of 2024.
Year end |
Revenue* (US$m) |
Adjusted EBITDAX** |
Cash from |
Net debt*** |
Capex**** |
Dividend yield (%) |
12/19 |
220 |
166 |
108 |
300 |
(84) |
1.4 |
12/20 |
247 |
188 |
152 |
299 |
(89) |
5.7 |
12/21e |
241 |
197 |
150 |
329 |
(108) |
6.6 |
12/22e |
255 |
197 |
158 |
428 |
(190) |
6.6 |
Note: *Revenue net of transport expense and royalty. **Adjusted EBITDAX is before non-recurring or non-cash charges and exploration expense. ***Cash and equivalents minus short- and long-term debt. ****Forecasts based on 2020 reserves 2P production profile.
Stable sales and cash-flow generation
Canacol will invest US$172 to US$209m in capex in 2022, which will be fully funded from existing cash and 2022 operating cash flow. This will support gas sales capacity, which is currently 230mmscfd. The company expects an EBITDAX of US$163m to US$230m from its estimated gas sales range of 160mmscfd to 200mmscfd. Canacol has maintained its quarterly dividend at 5.2 US cents per share. The company strengthened its balance sheet in November, with the successful placing of US$500m in 5.75% senior notes due 2025, which were partially used to refinance existing debt (c US$380 at 7.25%).
2022 drilling moves further afield
The drilling programme will start in January 2022 and target up to 12 wells, mainly focusing on exploration, with up to eight exploration wells and four development wells. For the first time, Canacol will target a new deep gas conventional play in the Middle Magdalena Basin and will drill one well each in the SSJN-7 and VIM-33 blocks of the Lower Magdalena Basin.
Valuation: Significantly undervalued
Our risked exploration net asset value (RENAV) is based on a combination of 2P reserves and additional ‘to be developed’ risked reserves that we expect to be added over the next five years. We value the core NAV at C$2.86, to which we add C$2.83 for additional risked reserves, to arrive at our valuation of C$5.69/share, c 80% above the current share price. We believe the share price does not fully reflect the potential upside from exploration.
2022 guidance
In 2022 Canacol will focus on delivering a 12-well drilling programme, with an emphasis on exploration wells, as it targets a reserves replacement ratio (RRR) of more than 200%. To achieve this, the company will move beyond the VIM-5, VIM-21 and Esperanza licences for the first time and drill three wells in previously undrilled blocks. Exploration activities, including seismic, will contribute to the bulk of 2022’s capex, which is estimated to be US$172m–US$209m (cf to US$108m in 2021) and will be fully funded from existing cash and 2022 cash flow. The budget will also allow over US$7m in quarterly dividends. The company anticipates gas sales between 160mmscfd and 200mmscfd, with c 80% of sales being take-or-pay under the high-end guidance. Longer-term Colombian gas demand is expected to grow at a rate of 2–3% per year.
Management will also focus on progressing the Jobo to Medellin pipeline project by selecting a contractor and submitting the environmental licence by the end of Q122, and contracting an additional 45mmscfd of take-or-pay contracts by the end of Q322. The pipeline will increase the company’s sale capacity by 100mmscfd when it comes online at the end of 2024.
Eight gas compression units will be installed across Canacol’s gas fields in 2022, which the company estimates will increase recovery factors between 8% and10% and reduce field-level opex. We note the guidance for EBITDAX for 2022 implies there is an increase in corporate level operating costs (SG&A and other opex). See valuation and financials section below for impact of guidance on our forecasts.
The company is also committed to strengthening its ESG strategy and will provide its short- and medium-term carbon emission reduction targets, together with a projected timeline for achieving net-zero emissions, in H122.
2021 drill programme: Significant success at Aguas Vivas
Canacol has delivered its planned programme of 12 wells in 2021, with the final well, Clarinete 6, reaching total depth in mid- December. The major success of the programme was the Aguas Vivas-1 discovery, which was followed with two appraisal wells, and the company will integrate the results from these wells with existing 3D seismic to assess the extent of the accumulation. We expect these three wells will make a significant contribution to the company’s reserves replacement this year. Of the remaining five exploration wells drilled, two wells, San Marcos-1 and Siku-1, successfully encountered commercial hydrocarbons while three wells did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons. Flauta-1 and Milano-1 were plugged and abandoned, while Corneta-1 has been cased and suspended as a future water disposal well. This brings the company’s exploration and appraisal success rate for 2021 to 62%, somewhat below its average success rate over 2016–2020 of 90%.
Exhibit 1: Wells drilled in 2021
Block |
Well |
Well type |
Esperanza |
Milano-1 |
Exploration |
San Marcos-1 |
Exploration |
|
Cãnahuate-4 |
Development |
|
Nelson-9 |
Development |
|
VIM-21 |
Aguas Vivas 1 |
Exploration |
Aguas Vivas 2 |
Appraisal |
|
Aguas Viva 3 |
Appraisal |
|
VIM-5 |
Flauta-1 |
Exploration |
Oboe 2 |
Development |
|
Corneto 1 |
Exploration |
|
Siku-1 |
Exploration |
|
Clarinete 6 |
Development |
Source: Canacol Energy.
The final exploration well in the 2021 programme, Siku-1, encountered 33 ft of net gas pay in the primary Cienaga de Oro (CDO) reservoir and is expected to be tied into production in early 2022.
2022 programme: Building on reserves growth
The 2022 drilling programme will look to maintain the pace set in 2021 with a programme of up to 12 wells, and will continue Canacol’s focus on exploration, with up to eight exploration wells and four development wells planned. Three of the exploration wells will target previously undrilled blocks, two in the Lower Magdalena Basin and one in the Middle Magdalena Basin, and the programme will start in the third week of January with the Toronja-2 development well. The majority of the wells will target prospects defined on 3D seismic, supported by the amplitude versus offset technology that has accounted for the company’s historical exploration and appraisal success rate of 79%. In total, 470km of 3D seismic will also be acquired across the VIM-5 block as Canacol looks to identify further gas prospects for exploration drilling.
Exhibit 2: Canacol acreage |
Source: Canacol Energy |
Canacol holds a 100% operating position in the VMM-45 E&P contract in the Middle Magdalena Basin covering 611,00 net acres. The conventional gas play here is deeper than in the Lower Magdalena Basin and the wells take longer to drill and are more expensive (at c US$15m/well). The company is expecting to drill one well in VMM-45, in Q222, and it will take five months to drill, test and complete. The Pola-1 well sits less than 10km from the Transportadora de Gas Internacional (TGI) pipeline, which transports gas from Ecopetrol’s declining mature gas fields to the interior of Colombia. The pipeline has c 260mmscfpd of spare capacity, so any discovery can be quickly commercialised.
In the Lower Magdalena Valley, the company plans to drill Dividvi-1 on the VIM-33 E&P contract (100% working interest) and Natilla-1 on the SSJN-7 E&P Contract (50% WI). Dividvi-1 will target the CDO reservoirs that produce in the nearby Arjona and El Dificil gas condensate fields. The well can be tied into the TGI pipeline c 50km to the east in the case of success. Natilla is the largest of 10 prospects identified in SSJN-7 on 3D seismic acquired by Canacol in 2021.The Natilla-1 well will target gas in the CDO and Porquero sandstone on an exploration fairway between the company’s gas fields c 60km to the south and the Frontera operated La Creciente gas fields c 30km to the north.
Valuation and financials
We update our valuation to reflect management guidance for 2022 (adopting the midpoint of the range), its preliminary expectations for 2021 and Q321 results.
Exhibit 3: Old versus new forecasts
New |
Old |
Difference |
Comment |
|
Valuation (C$/share) |
||||
Core NAV |
2.86 |
3.15 |
-9% |
Lower volume sales in FY22–23, increased opex and higher capex |
Additional reserves |
2.83 |
2.97 |
-5% |
No significant change |
Valuation |
5.69 |
6.12 |
-7% |
|
Financial extracts (US$m, unless otherwise stated) |
||||
FY21 |
||||
Volume sales (mmscfd) |
183 |
180 |
2% |
|
Pricing (US$/mmscfd) |
4.35 |
4.35 |
0% |
|
Revenue |
241 |
237 |
2% |
Slight increase due to higher sales volumes |
EBITDAX |
197 |
193 |
2% |
Slight increase due to higher revenue |
CFO |
150 |
162 |
-7% |
Most due to non-recurring items not included in previous forecasts |
Capex |
108 |
148 |
-27% |
Lower exploration spend |
FY22 |
||||
Volume sales (mmscfd) |
180 |
207 |
-13% |
Lower % spot (interruptible) markets sales |
Pricing (US$/mmscfd) |
4.67 |
4.61 |
1% |
|
Revenue |
255 |
288 |
-12% |
Lower sales volumes |
EBITDAX |
197 |
237 |
-17% |
Lower revenue |
CFO |
158 |
200 |
-21% |
Lower earnings due to lower revenue |
Capex |
190 |
171 |
12% |
Higher exploration spend |
FY22–25 |
||||
Production |
819 |
864 |
-5% |
Lower volume sales in FY22–23 partially offset by higher sales in FY25 |
Capex |
725 |
711 |
2% |
Higher capex over FY22–25 |
Source: Canacol (guidance), Edison Investment Research
Volumes sales, EBITDAX and capex
Canacol expects volumes sales of 183mmscfd in FY21, which is slightly higher than our previous forecast of 180mmscfd, due to increased volume sales over September to December (average of 192mmsfd). We note that 22% of sales in FY22 came from the spot market (interruptible sales) and thus represent sales outside of longer-term contracts. The midpoint of guidance for FY22 is 180mmscfd, which is below our previous forecast of 207mmscfd. The midpoint assumes only 10% of sales come from the spot market. If the same level of sales were made in the spot market as in FY21, the volume sales in FY22 would be c 202mmsfd. We believe Canacol is cautious in its guidance due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We previously assumed plateau production of 235mmscfd in FY23. We now assume this is achieved in FY24.
Canacol expects EBITDAX (EBITDA excluding pre-licence costs and exploration impairment, stock-based payments and non-recurring costs) of US$197m in FY21, which is slightly above our previous forecast of US$193m. This difference is mostly due to the impact of the increase in revenue due to higher volume sales. The midpoint of guidance for FY22 is US$197m, which is below our previous forecast of US$237m. The difference is due to lower revenue (lower volume sales) combined with implied higher operating costs (SG&A and other opex). We estimate there is an almost 40% increase in these costs and extrapolate the increase across our forecast period.
Canacol expects capex of US$108m in FY21, which is significantly lower than our previous forecast of US$148m. This difference is mostly due to reduced exploration spend in the second half of FY21. The midpoint of guidance for FY22 is US$190m, which is above our previous forecast of US$171m. This difference is mostly due to exploration spend from FY21 deferred into FY22 (and beyond). In aggregate, we increase our capex forecasts over FY22–25 by 2%.
Exhibit 4: Volume sales/production forecasts (mmscfd) |
Exhibit 5: Capex forecasts (US$m) |
Source: Canacol, Edison Investment Research |
Source: Canacol, Edison Investment Research |
Exhibit 4: Volume sales/production forecasts (mmscfd) |
Source: Canacol, Edison Investment Research |
Exhibit 5: Capex forecasts (US$m) |
Source: Canacol, Edison Investment Research |
Implications for NAV
Our core NAV for Canacol decreases from C$3.15/share to C$2.76/share, as a result of the changes to our forecasts for volume sales, operating costs and capex. Our additional 2P reserves decreases very slightly (-2%), giving a total NAV of C$5.65 (from C$6.12 previously). The breakdown of our valuation is shown below.
Exhibit 6: Base case valuation
Asset |
Number of shares: 192.1m** |
Recoverable reserves |
Net risked value |
|||||
Country |
Diluted WI |
CoS |
Gross |
Net WI |
NPV |
Absolute |
C$/share |
|
|
% |
% |
bcf |
US$/mcf |
US$m |
12.5% |
||
Adjusted net (debt)/cash at end 2020* |
(307) |
(2.05) |
||||||
SG&A and other opex - NPV of five years |
(135) |
(0.90) |
||||||
Decommissioning provisions |
(25) |
(0.17) |
||||||
Cash from assumed exercise of options |
43 |
0.29 |
||||||
Producing assets |
||||||||
Esperanza |
Colombia |
100% |
100% |
200 |
200 |
1.38 |
275 |
1.84 |
VIM-21 |
Colombia |
100% |
100% |
59 |
59 |
1.70 |
101 |
0.68 |
VIM-5 |
Colombia |
100% |
100% |
378 |
378 |
1.26 |
475 |
3.18 |
Core NAV |
|
|
|
637 |
637 |
|
427 |
2.86 |
Exploration/development upside |
||||||||
Five-year programme (assumes 200% RRR) |
|
100% |
70% |
731 |
731 |
0.83 |
423 |
2.83 |
Total NAV |
|
|
|
1,368 |
1,368 |
|
850 |
5.69 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Adjusted for shares repurchased since year-end. **Fully diluted number of shares.
Discount sensitivity rate
We have used a generic discount rate of 12.5% in our valuation. This is in line with that used for funded, cash-generative E&Ps with operations in emerging markets, resulting in our valuation of C$5.65/share. At a 10% discount rate, it would increase to C$6.37/share. We provide a sensitivity to this key input below.
Exhibit 7: 2P and risked exploration NAV sensitivity (C$/share) to WACC
8.0% |
10.0% |
12.5% |
15.0% |
|
2P NAV |
4.20 |
3.54 |
2.86 |
2.29 |
Risked NAV |
7.02 |
6.37 |
5.69 |
5.12 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Relative valuation
Canacol trades at a P/CF multiple of 4.3x in FY22e compared to its Canadian (junior) E&P peers on 4.9x and its North American E&P peers with South American operations on 3.2x. North American E&P peers with South American operations include Frontera Energy, Gran Tierra, Parex Resources, Petrotal and GeoPark; excluding Gran Tierra, which is an outlier, FY22e P/CF for this peer group becomes 3.6x.
Exhibit 8: Peer group valuation
Market cap (US$m) |
EV |
P/CF |
P/CF |
EV/EBITDA FY21e (x) |
EV/EBITDA FY22e (x) |
FCF yield FY21e (%) |
FCF yield FY22e (%) |
Net debt/ |
Net debt/ |
Div yield FY21e (%) |
Prod growth FY22e (%) |
EV/kboed FY21e (x) |
|
Canacol |
448 |
805 |
3.18 |
4.37 |
4.26 |
3.50 |
0.40 |
0.05 |
1.70 |
1.40 |
7.59 |
7.73 |
25.0 |
North American E&P peers with South American operations |
902 |
1,165 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
3.57 |
2.57 |
6.33 |
0.26 |
1.03 |
0.75 |
0.59 |
22.24 |
37.2 |
Frontera Energy Corp |
769 |
1,070 |
1.88 |
2.60 |
3.11 |
2.51 |
-1.30 |
0.18 |
0.89 |
0.72 |
0.00 |
6.30 |
28.1 |
GeoPark |
788 |
1,406 |
2.35 |
4.57 |
4.79 |
3.69 |
8.50 |
0.15 |
2.06 |
1.59 |
0.77 |
-1.46 |
37.2 |
Gran Tierra Energy |
317 |
991 |
0.93 |
1.54 |
3.84 |
2.60 |
17.52 |
0.43 |
2.76 |
1.87 |
0.00 |
18.95 |
37.1 |
Parex Resources |
2,350 |
1,991 |
3.36 |
4.21 |
2.89 |
2.46 |
12.71 |
0.11 |
(0.48) |
-0.41 |
2.18 |
13.78 |
42.4 |
Petrotal Corp |
287 |
369 |
1.90 |
3.11 |
3.23 |
1.59 |
-5.76 |
0.41 |
(0.06) |
-0.03 |
0.00 |
73.63 |
41.0 |
Canada |
5,310 |
6,724 |
3.23 |
4.55 |
5.59 |
3.97 |
7.89 |
0.16 |
1.33 |
0.96 |
1.10 |
14.42 |
36.7 |
Junior E&P <30kboed |
565 |
773 |
3.08 |
4.94 |
6.27 |
3.78 |
3.63 |
0.18 |
1.65 |
1.02 |
0.00 |
24.22 |
35.0 |
Cardinal Energy (Alberta) |
600 |
766 |
3.82 |
5.65 |
6.45 |
4.66 |
11.56 |
0.19 |
1.58 |
1.14 |
0.00 |
5.70 |
39.6 |
Crew Energy |
426 |
726 |
2.56 |
4.21 |
7.09 |
3.84 |
-5.77 |
0.23 |
2.58 |
1.40 |
0.00 |
22.61 |
27.3 |
Kelt Exploration |
847 |
835 |
4.27 |
6.78 |
7.47 |
4.22 |
-2.76 |
0.04 |
(0.21) |
-0.12 |
0.00 |
41.36 |
38.9 |
Obsidian Energy |
436 |
758 |
2.21 |
2.65 |
3.64 |
3.24 |
12.07 |
0.22 |
1.71 |
1.53 |
0.00 |
11.40 |
30.9 |
Pipestone Energy Corp |
699 |
897 |
3.75 |
7.20 |
6.41 |
3.38 |
-1.52 |
0.15 |
1.08 |
0.57 |
0.00 |
41.57 |
35.8 |
Surge Energy |
380 |
657 |
1.89 |
3.18 |
6.55 |
3.32 |
8.22 |
0.26 |
3.18 |
1.61 |
0.00 |
22.66 |
37.4 |
Intermediate E&P >30kboed |
1,613 |
2,101 |
3.14 |
4.55 |
5.27 |
3.82 |
7.41 |
0.14 |
1.33 |
0.99 |
1.29 |
12.90 |
36.0 |
Baytex Energy Corp |
2,010 |
3,252 |
2.95 |
3.47 |
5.12 |
4.52 |
16.73 |
0.17 |
2.22 |
1.96 |
0.00 |
1.75 |
40.7 |
Birchcliff Energy |
1,550 |
2,145 |
3.26 |
3.61 |
4.47 |
4.26 |
15.24 |
0.19 |
1.29 |
1.23 |
0.33 |
0.03 |
27.0 |
Frontera Energy Corp |
769 |
1,070 |
1.88 |
2.60 |
3.11 |
2.51 |
-1.30 |
0.18 |
0.89 |
0.72 |
0.00 |
6.30 |
28.1 |
Nuvista Energy |
1,505 |
1,993 |
3.21 |
6.15 |
6.78 |
4.00 |
2.67 |
0.14 |
1.89 |
1.11 |
0.00 |
28.54 |
38.2 |
Paramount Resources |
2,912 |
3,357 |
4.22 |
7.34 |
8.06 |
4.66 |
6.17 |
0.09 |
1.57 |
0.91 |
0.71 |
11.99 |
40.9 |
Parex Resources |
2,350 |
1,991 |
3.36 |
4.21 |
2.89 |
2.46 |
12.71 |
0.11 |
(0.48) |
-0.41 |
2.18 |
13.78 |
42.4 |
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp |
1,478 |
2,372 |
2.67 |
4.04 |
5.92 |
4.05 |
6.56 |
0.15 |
2.29 |
1.57 |
0.79 |
14.87 |
26.0 |
Tamarack Valley Energy |
1,499 |
1,928 |
3.52 |
5.18 |
6.81 |
4.43 |
7.54 |
0.16 |
0.61 |
0.40 |
0.00 |
31.13 |
55.8 |
Large E&P >100kboed |
14,130 |
17,770 |
3.47 |
4.22 |
5.42 |
4.32 |
12.16 |
0.17 |
1.06 |
0.87 |
1.81 |
7.97 |
39.0 |
ARC Resources |
7,536 |
9,697 |
3.14 |
3.65 |
6.02 |
4.20 |
13.16 |
0.16 |
0.37 |
0.26 |
1.94 |
14.59 |
32.2 |
Canadian Natural Resources |
57,755 |
71,492 |
4.95 |
5.41 |
5.66 |
5.45 |
12.44 |
0.12 |
1.41 |
1.36 |
3.07 |
5.34 |
58.0 |
Crescent Point Energy Corp |
3,911 |
5,797 |
2.70 |
3.33 |
4.73 |
3.85 |
12.11 |
0.17 |
1.54 |
1.26 |
0.57 |
1.91 |
43.6 |
Enerplus Corp |
2,965 |
3,819 |
3.19 |
4.30 |
5.36 |
4.05 |
8.93 |
0.17 |
0.41 |
0.31 |
1.00 |
6.81 |
33.4 |
Ovintiv |
10,271 |
15,089 |
2.62 |
3.10 |
4.47 |
3.59 |
17.84 |
0.22 |
2.07 |
1.67 |
1.19 |
-3.30 |
28.1 |
Tourmaline Oil Corp |
12,034 |
13,054 |
4.03 |
4.90 |
5.15 |
4.37 |
9.15 |
0.17 |
0.54 |
0.46 |
2.62 |
13.84 |
29.5 |
Whitecap Resources |
4,436 |
5,440 |
3.63 |
4.84 |
6.54 |
4.72 |
11.50 |
0.17 |
1.11 |
0.80 |
2.28 |
16.64 |
48.6 |
US |
16,831 |
21,335 |
3.78 |
5.00 |
6.05 |
4.67 |
9.88 |
0.17 |
1.57 |
1.18 |
1.03 |
9.84 |
56.1 |
RoW |
3,629 |
4,997 |
2.83 |
2.82 |
3.29 |
2.81 |
16.44 |
0.31 |
1.11 |
0.97 |
2.24 |
14.66 |
58.0 |
Average |
9,639 |
12,270 |
3.32 |
4.40 |
5.32 |
4.00 |
9.73 |
0.19 |
1.38 |
1.0 |
1.18 |
13.14 |
47.8 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Prices at 13 January 2022.
Exhibit 9: Financial summary
|
US$m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
Year-end December |
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||
Revenue |
|
219.5 |
246.8 |
240.9 |
254.6 |
Cost of sales (opex) |
(17.1) |
(18.0) |
(15.2) |
(18.4) |
|
Gross profit |
202.4 |
228.8 |
225.7 |
236.2 |
|
General & admin and other recurring expenses |
(36.4) |
(41.3) |
(28.6) |
(39.6) |
|
EBITDAX* |
|
166.0 |
187.5 |
197.0 |
196.5 |
Share based payments |
(7.9) |
(5.9) |
(4.9) |
(5.0) |
|
Exploration expense |
(3.0) |
- |
(12.0) |
- |
|
Other non-recurring |
(3.2) |
(8.7) |
(10.1) |
||
EBITDA |
|
151.9 |
172.9 |
170.1 |
191.5 |
Depreciation |
(54.3) |
(64.5) |
(68.1) |
(67.0) |
|
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)** |
|
103.8 |
117.1 |
124.0 |
124.5 |
Intangible amortisation |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Exceptionals |
(6.2) |
(8.7) |
(22.1) |
- |
|
Other |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
EBIT |
97.6 |
108.4 |
102.0 |
124.5 |
|
Net interest |
(32.9) |
(31.0) |
(33.9) |
(34.3) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
70.9 |
86.1 |
90.2 |
90.2 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
64.7 |
77.4 |
68.1 |
90.2 |
Tax |
(30.5) |
(82.1) |
(53.2) |
(40.6) |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
40.4 |
3.9 |
37.0 |
49.6 |
|
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
34.2 |
(4.7) |
14.9 |
49.6 |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
178.3 |
180.6 |
178.2 |
176.7 |
|
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
22.67 |
2.18 |
20.74 |
28.05 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
22.67 |
2.18 |
20.74 |
28.05 |
EPS - (IFRS) (US$) |
|
0.19 |
(0.03) |
0.08 |
0.28 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.05 |
0.21 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
|
Gross margin (%) |
92.19 |
92.70 |
93.68 |
92.76 |
|
EBITDA margin (%) |
92.19 |
92.70 |
93.68 |
92.76 |
|
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
47.29 |
47.44 |
51.49 |
48.91 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
Non-current assets |
|
620.8 |
596.3 |
624.2 |
747.6 |
Intangible assets |
53.9 |
62.8 |
113.8 |
219.2 |
|
Tangible assets |
506.1 |
524.8 |
498.6 |
498.7 |
|
Investments |
60.8 |
8.7 |
11.7 |
29.7 |
|
Current assets |
|
133.3 |
153.5 |
245.6 |
131.6 |
Stocks |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Debtors |
69.6 |
70.7 |
70.7 |
70.7 |
|
Cash |
41.2 |
68.3 |
160.4 |
46.4 |
|
Other/ restricted cash |
22.4 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
|
Current liabilities |
|
(97.8) |
(92.6) |
(92.6) |
(92.6) |
Creditors |
(89.6) |
(85.4) |
(85.4) |
(85.4) |
|
Short-term borrowings |
(8.2) |
(7.2) |
(7.2) |
(7.2) |
|
Long-term liabilities |
|
(413.5) |
(449.8) |
(570.7) |
(553.6) |
Long-term borrowings |
(333.4) |
(359.9) |
(480.8) |
(463.7) |
|
Other long-term liabilities (inc. decomm.) |
(80.1) |
(89.9) |
(89.9) |
(89.9) |
|
Net assets |
|
242.7 |
207.4 |
206.5 |
233.0 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||
Operating cash flow |
|
108.4 |
152.3 |
150.2 |
157.7 |
Capex inc acquisitions |
(84.3) |
(89.0) |
(108.0) |
(190.5) |
|
Financing expenses |
(29.5) |
(28.7) |
(34.9) |
(36.1) |
|
Equity issued/(repurchased) |
7.2 |
(2.3) |
(8.0) |
- |
|
Dividends |
(7.1) |
(20.6) |
(29.7) |
(29.7) |
|
Net cash flow |
(5.3) |
11.8 |
(28.7) |
(96.9) |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
288.1 |
300.3 |
298.9 |
329.3 |
HP finance leases initiated |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Other |
(7.0) |
(10.3) |
- |
- |
|
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
300.3 |
298.9 |
329.3 |
428.0 |
Source: Canacol, Edison Investment Research. Note: *EBITDA excluding pre-licence costs and exploration impairment, stock-based compensation and non-recurring items; **operating profit excluding pre-licence costs and exploration impairment, and non-recurring items.
|
|
Imagion Biosystems focuses on the development of new medical imaging techniques using magnetic nanoparticles to identify and diagnose cancer. The company aims to disrupt the cancer diagnosis market, which it estimates is worth US$100bn annually, with its non-invasive and non-radioactive MagSense imaging platform. Imagion’s technology is in Phase I trials for the detection of HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer. In 2019, the FDA awarded the MagSense platform Breakthrough Device status, offering a potentially faster time to market.
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