Bowleven’s (BLVN) farm-out with Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) is probably the quickest route to market for Bomono gas. While BLVN has had to sacrifice 80% of its interest in the block, the deal allows gas to be sold to Victoria’s existing network of customers at a gas price significantly above that expected from other solutions with very little further capex required in the near future. On our estimates, 7mmscfd of production should bring in around $6-7m in direct revenues and royalties, corresponding to around c $4m in post-tax cash flows, a useful addition to Bowleven’s income. On the assumption that the deal completes, we increase our core NAV from 49p/share to 53p/share to reflect Bomono’s inclusion.
Written by
Bowleven |
Farm-down to VOG monetises Bomono gas |
Farm-down |
Oil & gas |
9 March 2017 |
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Bowleven is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Bowleven’s (BLVN) farm-out with Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) is probably the quickest route to market for Bomono gas. While BLVN has had to sacrifice 80% of its interest in the block, the deal allows gas to be sold to Victoria’s existing network of customers at a gas price significantly above that expected from other solutions with very little further capex required in the near future. On our estimates, 7mmscfd of production should bring in around $6-7m in direct revenues and royalties, corresponding to around c $4m in post-tax cash flows, a useful addition to Bowleven’s income. On the assumption that the deal completes, we increase our core NAV from 49p/share to 53p/share to reflect Bomono’s inclusion.
Year |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
Operating cash flow ($m) |
Capex |
Net cash |
06/15 |
0.0 |
(14.1) |
(10.4) |
35.1 |
144.8 |
06/16 |
0.0 |
(7.0) |
(6.9) |
48.2 |
88.0 |
06/17e |
0.0 |
(9.0) |
(9.9) |
3.9 |
89.7 |
06/18e |
2.5 |
(5.4) |
(4.5) |
6.9 |
103.8 |
Note: *PBT is adjusted.
Deal creates near-term revenue opportunity
While the deal sees Bowleven’s working interest fall from 100% to 20%, it gives Bomono gas access to VOG’s existing industrial and power customers, where realised prices achieved are between $9-16/mcf. This is several multiples of the levels we had assumed in our gas to power modelling. Additionally, the deal requires little further capital investment (in the near term) and minimal opex exposure. Upside (estimated at 146 and 263bcf GIIP across the block) may be accessed in the future, although we do not expect further drilling imminently. Subject to completion (which is conditional on government approval and the result of BLVN’s General Meeting on 14 March), we believe the deal should allow Bomono gas to start flowing to customers within nine to 12 months (mostly due to the time required for VOG to build the connecting pipeline infrastructure at its own cost).
Valuation: Core NAV increases to 53p/share
We have adjusted our valuation, assuming a realised gas price of $12/mcf, tolling fee of $1/mcf and plateau production rates of 7mmscfd. This should provide BLVN with useful cash flows over time and justifies management’s continued work on the asset to maximise the recovery of value. Our risking for the project has increased to 65% (from 50%) and will increase further as and when the deal closes, the PEA is approved and production approaches. We currently estimate first gas around the turn of the year. Our core NAV increases to 53p/share.
Deal highlights
■
On completion, Bowleven will hold a 20% working interest in the Bomono. Victoria Oil and Gas will hold 80%. BLVN will remain as operator (we suspect given their technical and subsurface expertise). This is before any government back-in (which could be 10% if exercised).
■
Gas from Bomono will be sold to VOG’s pipeline network. The gas price realised will be a weighted average of VOG’s domestic sales price (of between $9-16/mcf), minus a tolling fee. We model a $12/mcf average price and $1/mcf tolling fee.
■
The pipeline from Bomono to VOG’s network will be funded and managed by VOG and it is understood that installation of this pipeline and civil costs for a gas processing facility will cost around $6m. We assume that the processing facility will be relatively cheap and straightforward given the dry nature of Bomono’s gas.
■
BLVN has agreed to pay VOG 50% of any deficit, limited to a maximum payment of US$2m, if the first three years of net income received by GDC Bomono is less than the development expenditure incurred. We have assumed that this will not be the case.
■
Bowleven will receive a 3.5% royalty from VOG’s production share of Bomono production, subject to a cap of US$20m.
■
On completion, Bowleven will receive £100,000 worth of new ordinary shares in VOG based on a price of 69.23p per share.
■
The economic effective date of the transaction is 1 January 2017.
Completion is subject to the grant of a PEA (Provisional Exploitation Agreement) over the Bomono PSC. The PEA application was submitted by Bowleven to the Cameroon authorities as requested following ministerial approval for the award of a two-year extension to the Bomono PSC (to 12 December 2018). The Cameroon government also needs to approve the farm-out.
VOG can terminate the deal if any of Crown Ocean Capital’s (COC’s) resolutions are passed in March. If the deal is not completed by the end of June, it can be terminated by either party.
Exhibit 1: NAV summary
Asset |
US$/£0.8 |
Recoverable reserves |
Net risked value |
|||||||
Diluted WI |
CoS |
Gross |
Net |
NPV/ |
@12.5% DR |
DR sensitivity |
||||
% |
% |
mmboe |
$/boe |
$m |
p/share |
10% |
15% |
20% |
||
Net (debt)/cash at Dec 2016 |
100% |
100% |
95 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
|||
G&A NPV of three years (includes share payments) |
100% |
100% |
(19) |
(5) |
(5) |
(5) |
(5) |
|||
$25m on FID (assumed early 2018) |
100% |
83% |
21 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|||
VOG shares |
100% |
100% |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Development |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||||||
Etinde development |
20% |
50% |
181 |
36 |
5.9 |
106 |
26 |
35 |
19 |
11 |
Bomono - VOG farm-out |
90% |
65% |
9 |
8 |
2.8 |
14 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
Core NAV |
|
|
|
|
|
217 |
53 |
63 |
46 |
37 |
Potential development |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||||||
CLNG extension |
20% |
20% |
109 |
22 |
6.8 |
29 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
RENAV |
|
|
|
|
|
247 |
60 |
70 |
53 |
44 |
Rough Intra Isongo value |
20% |
10% |
290 |
58 |
2.2 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts. Note: We assume the deal completes for the purposes of modelling the production and revenues from Bomono. Rough Intra Isongo value is illustrative only for investors looking to value future exploration/appraisal. It is not in our formal valuation.
Financials
The deal means that BLVN will have very little capital outlay on Bomono before meaningful revenues come through. This should help it retain a greater proportion of the cash it currently holds ready for expenditure on Etinde when required. All areas of the financials have been affected by the change of Bomono monetisation from assumed gas to power (at 100% WI) to the new route through VOG’s network (at 20% WI).
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
US$000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end June |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
Revenue |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2,506 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(33) |
||
Gross Profit |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2,473 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(10,592) |
(11,604) |
(11,471) |
(20,246) |
(8,800) |
(5,142) |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
|
|
(11,088) |
(12,025) |
(11,868) |
(20,901) |
(9,440) |
(5,782) |
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(75,959) |
(122,305) |
15,000 |
25,000 |
||
Goodwill and intangible amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(11,088) |
(12,025) |
(87,827) |
(143,206) |
5,560 |
19,218 |
||
Net foreign exchange gain/(loss) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Interest |
7 |
(1,577) |
(2,192) |
13,937 |
457 |
424 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(11,081) |
(13,602) |
(14,060) |
(6,964) |
(8,983) |
(5,358) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(11,081) |
(13,602) |
(90,019) |
(129,269) |
6,017 |
19,642 |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(593) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(11,081) |
(13,602) |
(14,060) |
(6,964) |
(8,983) |
(5,951) |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(11,081) |
(13,602) |
(90,019) |
(129,269) |
6,017 |
19,049 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
295 |
324.3 |
324.3 |
325.0 |
328.0 |
328.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(3.8) |
(4.2) |
(4.3) |
(2.1) |
(2.7) |
(1.8) |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(3.8) |
(4.2) |
(27.8) |
(39.8) |
1.8 |
5.8 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
533,437 |
551,446 |
306,558 |
214,522 |
217,782 |
223,441 |
Intangible Assets |
532,507 |
550,745 |
304,662 |
213,669 |
213,809 |
213,948 |
||
Tangible Assets |
930 |
701 |
1,896 |
853 |
3,973 |
9,493 |
||
Investments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
52,150 |
42,351 |
212,029 |
149,819 |
153,410 |
167,460 |
Stocks |
11,023 |
10,404 |
5,370 |
3,650 |
4,000 |
4,000 |
||
Debtors |
16,385 |
6,493 |
6,431 |
2,955 |
4,500 |
4,500 |
||
Cash |
19,742 |
20,454 |
144,751 |
88,026 |
89,722 |
103,772 |
||
Other receivables |
5,000 |
5,000 |
55,477 |
55,188 |
55,188 |
55,188 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(15,568) |
(6,274) |
(12,695) |
(2,366) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
Creditors |
(15,568) |
(6,274) |
(12,695) |
(2,366) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
570,019 |
587,523 |
505,892 |
361,975 |
369,192 |
388,901 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(8,404) |
(8,576) |
(10,438) |
(6,941) |
(9,861) |
(4,475) |
Net Interest |
556 |
177 |
139 |
450 |
457 |
424 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(114,381) |
(18,037) |
(35,141) |
(48,171) |
(3,900) |
(6,900) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
160,688 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
76 |
20,924 |
71 |
(186) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
4,482 |
9,016 |
0 |
15,000 |
25,000 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(122,153) |
(1,030) |
124,335 |
(54,848) |
1,696 |
14,049 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(142,481) |
(19,742) |
(20,454) |
(144,751) |
(88,026) |
(89,722) |
Effect of FX changes |
(586) |
1,742 |
(38) |
(1,877) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(19,742) |
(20,454) |
(144,751) |
(88,026) |
(89,722) |
(103,772) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts. Note: We assume the farm-out deal completes.
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