Bowleven — Update 9 March 2017

Bowleven — Update 9 March 2017

Bowleven’s (BLVN) farm-out with Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) is probably the quickest route to market for Bomono gas. While BLVN has had to sacrifice 80% of its interest in the block, the deal allows gas to be sold to Victoria’s existing network of customers at a gas price significantly above that expected from other solutions with very little further capex required in the near future. On our estimates, 7mmscfd of production should bring in around $6-7m in direct revenues and royalties, corresponding to around c $4m in post-tax cash flows, a useful addition to Bowleven’s income. On the assumption that the deal completes, we increase our core NAV from 49p/share to 53p/share to reflect Bomono’s inclusion.

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Written by

Bowleven

Farm-down to VOG monetises Bomono gas

Farm-down

Oil & gas

9 March 2017

Price

34.50p

Market cap

£113m

US$/£0.8

Net cash ($m) at 31 December 2016

95

Shares in issue

328m

Free float

93%

Code

BLVN

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.5

32.7

58.6

Rel (local)

7.4

25.1

33.6

52-week high/low

34.50p

19.50p

Business description

Bowleven is an AIM-listed, Africa-focused E&P with assets in Cameroon. Its main asset is its 20% net interest in the Etinde development, which holds 290mmboe of 2C contingent resource. It also holds 20% WI in Bomono (subject to closing of the VOG farm-out).

Next events

General meeting

14 March 2017

PEA approval at Bomono

H117

Analyst

Will Forbes

+44 (0)20 3077 5749

Bowleven is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Bowleven’s (BLVN) farm-out with Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) is probably the quickest route to market for Bomono gas. While BLVN has had to sacrifice 80% of its interest in the block, the deal allows gas to be sold to Victoria’s existing network of customers at a gas price significantly above that expected from other solutions with very little further capex required in the near future. On our estimates, 7mmscfd of production should bring in around $6-7m in direct revenues and royalties, corresponding to around c $4m in post-tax cash flows, a useful addition to Bowleven’s income. On the assumption that the deal completes, we increase our core NAV from 49p/share to 53p/share to reflect Bomono’s inclusion.

Year
end

Revenue

($m)

PBT*
($m)

Operating cash flow ($m)

Capex
($m)

Net cash
($m)

06/15

0.0

(14.1)

(10.4)

35.1

144.8

06/16

0.0

(7.0)

(6.9)

48.2

88.0

06/17e

0.0

(9.0)

(9.9)

3.9

89.7

06/18e

2.5

(5.4)

(4.5)

6.9

103.8

Note: *PBT is adjusted.

Deal creates near-term revenue opportunity

While the deal sees Bowleven’s working interest fall from 100% to 20%, it gives Bomono gas access to VOG’s existing industrial and power customers, where realised prices achieved are between $9-16/mcf. This is several multiples of the levels we had assumed in our gas to power modelling. Additionally, the deal requires little further capital investment (in the near term) and minimal opex exposure. Upside (estimated at 146 and 263bcf GIIP across the block) may be accessed in the future, although we do not expect further drilling imminently. Subject to completion (which is conditional on government approval and the result of BLVN’s General Meeting on 14 March), we believe the deal should allow Bomono gas to start flowing to customers within nine to 12 months (mostly due to the time required for VOG to build the connecting pipeline infrastructure at its own cost).

Valuation: Core NAV increases to 53p/share

We have adjusted our valuation, assuming a realised gas price of $12/mcf, tolling fee of $1/mcf and plateau production rates of 7mmscfd. This should provide BLVN with useful cash flows over time and justifies management’s continued work on the asset to maximise the recovery of value. Our risking for the project has increased to 65% (from 50%) and will increase further as and when the deal closes, the PEA is approved and production approaches. We currently estimate first gas around the turn of the year. Our core NAV increases to 53p/share.

Deal highlights

On completion, Bowleven will hold a 20% working interest in the Bomono. Victoria Oil and Gas will hold 80%. BLVN will remain as operator (we suspect given their technical and subsurface expertise). This is before any government back-in (which could be 10% if exercised).

Gas from Bomono will be sold to VOG’s pipeline network. The gas price realised will be a weighted average of VOG’s domestic sales price (of between $9-16/mcf), minus a tolling fee. We model a $12/mcf average price and $1/mcf tolling fee.

The pipeline from Bomono to VOG’s network will be funded and managed by VOG and it is understood that installation of this pipeline and civil costs for a gas processing facility will cost around $6m. We assume that the processing facility will be relatively cheap and straightforward given the dry nature of Bomono’s gas.

BLVN has agreed to pay VOG 50% of any deficit, limited to a maximum payment of US$2m, if the first three years of net income received by GDC Bomono is less than the development expenditure incurred. We have assumed that this will not be the case.

Bowleven will receive a 3.5% royalty from VOG’s production share of Bomono production, subject to a cap of US$20m.

On completion, Bowleven will receive £100,000 worth of new ordinary shares in VOG based on a price of 69.23p per share.

The economic effective date of the transaction is 1 January 2017.

Completion is subject to the grant of a PEA (Provisional Exploitation Agreement) over the Bomono PSC. The PEA application was submitted by Bowleven to the Cameroon authorities as requested following ministerial approval for the award of a two-year extension to the Bomono PSC (to 12 December 2018). The Cameroon government also needs to approve the farm-out.

VOG can terminate the deal if any of Crown Ocean Capital’s (COC’s) resolutions are passed in March. If the deal is not completed by the end of June, it can be terminated by either party.

Exhibit 1: NAV summary

Asset

US$/£0.8
No. shares: 328m

Recoverable reserves

Net risked value

Diluted WI

CoS

Gross

Net

NPV/
boe

@12.5% DR

DR sensitivity

%

%

mmboe

$/boe

$m

p/share

10%

15%

20%

Net (debt)/cash at Dec 2016

100%

100%

95

23

23

23

23

G&A NPV of three years (includes share payments)

100%

100%

(19)

(5)

(5)

(5)

(5)

$25m on FID (assumed early 2018)

100%

83%

21

5

5

5

5

VOG shares

100%

100%

0.1

0

0

0

0

Development

0

0

0

Etinde development

20%

50%

181

36

5.9

106

26

35

19

11

Bomono - VOG farm-out

90%

65%

9

8

2.8

14

4

4

3

2

Core NAV

 

 

 

 

 

217

53

63

46

37

Potential development

0

0

0

CLNG extension

20%

20%

109

22

6.8

29

7

7

7

7

RENAV

 

 

 

 

 

247

60

70

53

44

Rough Intra Isongo value

20%

10%

290

58

2.2

13

3

3

3

3

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts. Note: We assume the deal completes for the purposes of modelling the production and revenues from Bomono. Rough Intra Isongo value is illustrative only for investors looking to value future exploration/appraisal. It is not in our formal valuation.

Financials

The deal means that BLVN will have very little capital outlay on Bomono before meaningful revenues come through. This should help it retain a greater proportion of the cash it currently holds ready for expenditure on Etinde when required. All areas of the financials have been affected by the change of Bomono monetisation from assumed gas to power (at 100% WI) to the new route through VOG’s network (at 20% WI).

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

US$000s

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

2,506

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

0

(33)

Gross Profit

0

0

0

0

0

2,473

EBITDA

 

 

(10,592)

(11,604)

(11,471)

(20,246)

(8,800)

(5,142)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

 

(11,088)

(12,025)

(11,868)

(20,901)

(9,440)

(5,782)

Exceptionals

0

0

(75,959)

(122,305)

15,000

25,000

Goodwill and intangible amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(11,088)

(12,025)

(87,827)

(143,206)

5,560

19,218

Net foreign exchange gain/(loss)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Interest

7

(1,577)

(2,192)

13,937

457

424

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(11,081)

(13,602)

(14,060)

(6,964)

(8,983)

(5,358)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(11,081)

(13,602)

(90,019)

(129,269)

6,017

19,642

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

(593)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(11,081)

(13,602)

(14,060)

(6,964)

(8,983)

(5,951)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(11,081)

(13,602)

(90,019)

(129,269)

6,017

19,049

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

295

324.3

324.3

325.0

328.0

328.0

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(3.8)

(4.2)

(4.3)

(2.1)

(2.7)

(1.8)

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

(3.8)

(4.2)

(27.8)

(39.8)

1.8

5.8

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

533,437

551,446

306,558

214,522

217,782

223,441

Intangible Assets

532,507

550,745

304,662

213,669

213,809

213,948

Tangible Assets

930

701

1,896

853

3,973

9,493

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

52,150

42,351

212,029

149,819

153,410

167,460

Stocks

11,023

10,404

5,370

3,650

4,000

4,000

Debtors

16,385

6,493

6,431

2,955

4,500

4,500

Cash

19,742

20,454

144,751

88,026

89,722

103,772

Other receivables

5,000

5,000

55,477

55,188

55,188

55,188

Current Liabilities

 

 

(15,568)

(6,274)

(12,695)

(2,366)

(2,000)

(2,000)

Creditors

(15,568)

(6,274)

(12,695)

(2,366)

(2,000)

(2,000)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

570,019

587,523

505,892

361,975

369,192

388,901

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(8,404)

(8,576)

(10,438)

(6,941)

(9,861)

(4,475)

Net Interest

556

177

139

450

457

424

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(114,381)

(18,037)

(35,141)

(48,171)

(3,900)

(6,900)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

160,688

0

0

0

Financing

76

20,924

71

(186)

0

0

Other

0

4,482

9,016

0

15,000

25,000

Net Cash Flow

(122,153)

(1,030)

124,335

(54,848)

1,696

14,049

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(142,481)

(19,742)

(20,454)

(144,751)

(88,026)

(89,722)

Effect of FX changes

(586)

1,742

(38)

(1,877)

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

(0)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(19,742)

(20,454)

(144,751)

(88,026)

(89,722)

(103,772)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts. Note: We assume the farm-out deal completes.

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Bowleven and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Bowleven and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Research: TMT

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