Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR48.42
▲ 0.42 (0.88%)
Market capitalisation
EUR6,916m
Research: Industrials
Mytilineos released strong Q123 results on 4 May, despite scheduled maintenance in its power business and Q1 being a typically weaker quarter. The year 2023 is likely to be H2 weighted, because scheduled maintenance at Mytilineos’s Ag. Nikolas plant is now complete and its new highly efficient power plant is entering full commercial operation. This strong performance during a period of low energy and metal prices reinforces our view that our FY23 estimates are conservative. EBITDA of €225m was 24% of our FY23 estimate (€931m) and EPS of €1.04 was 27.5%. Net profit after minorities of €143m was up 113% year on year. These results reflect the underlying change to Mytilineos’s synergistic business model to focus on two key activities: Energy (renewables, electricity generation and natural gas supply) and Metallurgy. H223 will see the full operation of its gas plants and continued rollout of renewables – the latter a key focus of its >€2bn capex programme over the next three years.
Mytilineos |
Benefiting from diversity and internationalisation |
Q123 results |
General industrials |
5 May 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description Mytilineos is a leading industrial company with an international presence in all five continents. The company is active in Energy and Metals (integrated aluminium smelting). Its renewable energy business is growing strongly organically, helped by European policy initiatives. Analysts
Mytilineos is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Mytilineos released strong Q123 results on 4 May, despite scheduled maintenance in its power business and Q1 being a typically weaker quarter. The year 2023 is likely to be H2 weighted, because scheduled maintenance at Mytilineos’s Ag. Nikolas plant is now complete and its new highly efficient power plant is entering full commercial operation. This strong performance during a period of low energy and metal prices reinforces our view that our FY23 estimates are conservative. EBITDA of €225m was 24% of our FY23 estimate (€931m) and EPS of €1.04 was 27.5%. Net profit after minorities of €143m was up 113% year on year. These results reflect the underlying change to Mytilineos’s synergistic business model to focus on two key activities: Energy (renewables, electricity generation and natural gas supply) and Metallurgy. H223 will see the full operation of its gas plants and continued rollout of renewables – the latter a key focus of its >€2bn capex programme over the next three years.
Year |
EBITDA |
Net income* |
EPS** |
DPS*** |
P/E**** |
Yield**** |
12/21 |
359 |
180 |
1.19 |
0.42 |
12.2 |
2.9 |
12/22 |
823 |
466 |
3.41 |
1.20 |
4.6 |
7.6 |
12/23e |
931 |
520 |
3.77 |
1.32 |
6.4 |
5.4 |
12/24e |
1,048 |
595 |
4.31 |
1.51 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
Note: *Reported. **Number of shares is adjusted for the company’s ongoing buyback scheme. ***Final distributed dividend per share. ****At average share prices in 2021/2022.
Q1 saw the continued roll out of renewable energy projects, with the commissioning of a 43MW wind park and the acceleration of the Greek wind portfolio (0.6GW) towards maturity. In addition, the construction of the first part (135MW) of the c 1.5GW pipeline of photovoltaics is progressing well, with the use of resource from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (at very favourable terms).
EBITDA for the energy sector overall was €150m, up 95% year on year. The diversification into renewables has clearly helped, as has Mytilineos’s presence in supplying both electricity and natural gas. Thermal production was 0.8TWh in Q1, down 41% year on year due to the planned maintenance of its Ag. Nikolaou combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), but the restart of this plant and its new, highly efficient, 826MW CCGT should boost power production in the rest of the year.
Aluminium results were notably strong, with Q1 EBITDA of €74m up 35% year on year despite a 25.1% year-on-year decline in aluminium prices. Q1 EBITDA was 28% of our FY23 estimate of €262m. Production was relatively flat (up 0.8% year on year), with gains coming from backwards integration into power, lower energy costs and timely forward sales on both metal prices and $/€ exchange rates.
Adjusted net debt at end Q1 was €948m, up from €716m at the end of 2022. Adjusted net debt/EBITDA was 1.03x in Q1 and Fitch recently upgraded Mytilineos debt to BB+, one notch below investment grade.
If, as we forecast in our last note, EBITDA can be maintained at over €1bn/year from FY24, we determine a valuation of €36/share (€5.0bn) (based on a 10-year discounted cash flow analysis). Mytilineos will hold its AGM on 2 June, which may provide further indication of the structural acceleration in earnings.
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Research: Industrials
Epwin’s FY22 results highlight both the challenging trading environment but also management’s ability to successfully handle inflationary pressures. Well-established long-term growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy efficient and low-maintenance building products. The acquisition of Poly-Pure and Mayfield underscore the company’s ambition and ability to self-finance accretive expansion. We anticipate further deals in the foreseeable future. Epwin trades on a P/E of 8.3x for FY23e versus a long-term average of 10.9x, with upside as and when margins recover further.