Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR23.40
▲ 0.60 (2.63%)
Market capitalisation
EUR317m
Research: Financials
JDC Group (JDC) issued its Q323 report in which its FY23 guidance was adjusted to the lower end of the indicated revenue and EBITDA ranges. This was partly due to the weak economic environment in Germany and partly because JDC may not be able to consolidate Top Ten Group in FY23. Nevertheless, to reach the lower end of the €175–190m revenue guidance, a strong Q4 is needed given the 9M23 realised revenue of €122.9m. However, we believe guidance is realistic given seasonal trends as Q4 is the quarter when clients usually evaluate their insurance portfolios.
JDC Group |
Banking on a strong Q4 |
Q323 results update |
Diversified financials |
14 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
JDC Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JDC Group (JDC) issued its Q323 report in which its FY23 guidance was adjusted to the lower end of the indicated revenue and EBITDA ranges. This was partly due to the weak economic environment in Germany and partly because JDC may not be able to consolidate Top Ten Group in FY23. Nevertheless, to reach the lower end of the €175–190m revenue guidance, a strong Q4 is needed given the 9M23 realised revenue of €122.9m. However, we believe guidance is realistic given seasonal trends as Q4 is the quarter when clients usually evaluate their insurance portfolios.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
12/21 |
146.8 |
8.3 |
0.07 |
0.00 |
40.8 |
262.9 |
12/22 |
156.1 |
9.0 |
0.07 |
0.00 |
25.9 |
267.8 |
12/23e |
175.2 |
11.5 |
0.18 |
0.00 |
20.9 |
98.6 |
12/24e |
215.6 |
15.5 |
0.39 |
0.00 |
15.1 |
45.1 |
Note: *EPS is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
A slower Q3 but a strong Q4 anticipated
JDC’s revenues increased by 10% y-o-y to €38.3m in Q323, an improvement compared to 4.5% in H123. Q3 is the weakest quarter for JDC due to the summer holidays. August was especially weak this year after a relatively strong July. Advisortech revenues (81% of sales) rose by 9.6% to €33.4m, compared to 16.9% growth in Q2. Revenues in Advisory (19% of sales) fell by 7.3% to €7.7m, driven by continued weakness in investment, real estate and construction financing. EBITDA doubled to €1.6m due to better cost control and EBIT was €0.2m, compared to a loss of €0.7m in Q322. The net loss amounted to €0.4m (Q322: loss of €1.1m).
Due to the weak economic environment and because it is unlikely JDC will be able to consolidate Top Ten Investment-Vermittlungs in FY23 (approval pending from the regulator), revenues and earnings are projected to come in at the lower end of the guidance range of revenues of €175–190m and EBITDA of €11.5–13.0m. This is still a challenging target. In order to reach the new guidance JDC needs a very strong Q4 with revenues of at least €52.1m (Q422: €40.3m) and EBITDA of over €4.8m (Q422: €2.8m). The company is confident that it can reach those levels, given regular seasonality and the comparison with a relatively weak Q4 last year. We have adjusted our estimates for 2023 reflecting the new guidance and arrive at €175m revenues and an EBITDA of €11.5m.
Lower 2023 estimates, changes in 2024 estimates
The acquisition pace of the Summitas Gruppe joint venture with Bain Capital Insurance and Great-West Lifeco seems to have picked up. Two brokers have been added earlier this year, one is expected to close in the coming weeks, and two more are expected this year. Given this and the final acquisition of Top Ten Group, we have increased our top-line estimates for 2024. See below for our new estimates.
Changes to estimates
We have made changes to our FY23 and FY24 estimates. For FY23 we are reflecting the company’s guidance towards the lower end of the range for both revenues and EBITDA. Compared to our previous forecasts, our revenue estimate is 3.9% lower and our EBITDA estimate is 5.4% lower.
For FY24 we have included a revenue contribution of €16m from Top Ten Group, which means our revenue forecast for 2024 is 1.5% higher than before. Our EBITDA forecast is 10.7% lower than our previous estimates, mostly because of the lower margins of the Top Ten business. We expect net profit to increase to €2.5m in FY23 and €5.4m in 2024, from €0.9m in 2022.
Over the next few years, we continue to expect increasing growth in the Advisortech segment, driven not only by key clients and the IFA business but also by contributions from the Summitas Gruppe joint venture.
Exhibit 1: Estimate changes
€m |
FY22 |
FY23e old |
FY23e new |
Change |
FY24e old |
FY24e new |
Change |
FY25e |
Total revenue |
156.1 |
182.3 |
175.2 |
-3.9% |
212.4 |
215.6 |
1.5% |
244.7 |
EBITDA |
9.0 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
-5.4% |
17.4 |
15.5 |
-10.7% |
20.3 |
EBIT |
2.9 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
-11.2% |
10.5 |
8.5 |
-18.7% |
12.9 |
Pre-tax profit |
1.1 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
-16.6% |
8.7 |
6.7 |
-22.5% |
11.1 |
Net income |
0.9 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
-17.7% |
6.9 |
5.4 |
-21.7% |
8.9 |
EPS (€) |
0.07 |
0.22 |
0.18 |
-17.9% |
0.51 |
0.39 |
-22.7% |
0.65 |
Source: JDC Group financial accounts, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€m |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
146.8 |
156.1 |
175.2 |
215.6 |
244.7 |
|
Cost of Sales |
(105.1) |
(108.3) |
(120.3) |
(152.9) |
(173.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
41.7 |
47.8 |
54.9 |
62.6 |
71.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
8.3 |
9.0 |
11.5 |
15.5 |
20.3 |
|
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
497 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
8.5 |
12.9 |
||
Reported operating profit |
|
3.0 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
8.5 |
12.9 |
|
Net Interest |
|
(1.6) |
(1.5) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
|
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
1.4 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
6.7 |
11.1 |
||
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
1.4 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
6.7 |
11.1 |
||
Reported tax |
(0.5) |
(0.2) |
(0.6) |
(1.3) |
(2.2) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
8.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
8.9 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
13.1 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
|
EPS (€) |
|
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.18 |
0.39 |
0.65 |
|
EPS - normalised (€) |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.18 |
0.39 |
0.65 |
||
DPS (€) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
28.4 |
30.6 |
31.3 |
29.1 |
29.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
5.7 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
8.3 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
78.0 |
74.5 |
71.5 |
69.0 |
66.7 |
|
Intangible Assets |
66.4 |
64.1 |
61.8 |
59.9 |
58.2 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5.6 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
||
Investments & other |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
||
Current Assets |
|
43.7 |
38.5 |
46.2 |
58.8 |
73.4 |
|
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Debtors |
19.2 |
17.6 |
19.8 |
24.3 |
27.6 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
21.9 |
16.7 |
21.7 |
28.7 |
39.2 |
||
Other |
2.6 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
36.9 |
32.7 |
35.0 |
39.6 |
43.0 |
|
Creditors |
23.8 |
18.1 |
20.4 |
25.0 |
28.4 |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Short term borrowings |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
12.1 |
14.6 |
14.6 |
14.6 |
14.6 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
46.0 |
43.3 |
43.3 |
43.3 |
43.3 |
|
Long term borrowings |
19.5 |
19.7 |
19.7 |
19.7 |
19.7 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
26.5 |
23.6 |
23.6 |
23.6 |
23.6 |
||
Net Assets |
|
38.8 |
37.0 |
39.4 |
44.8 |
53.8 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
|
38.8 |
37.0 |
39.4 |
44.8 |
53.8 |
|
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
5.6 |
7.2 |
10.9 |
14.2 |
18.1 |
||
Working capital |
9.3 |
0.4 |
(0.5) |
(1.0) |
(0.7) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
14.9 |
7.6 |
10.5 |
13.2 |
17.4 |
|
Capex |
(2.1) |
(3.2) |
(3.6) |
(4.5) |
(5.1) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(11.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Net interest |
0.0 |
(6.4) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
||
Equity financing |
10.6 |
(3.2) |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Other |
(2.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
||
Net Cash Flow |
10.2 |
(5.2) |
5.0 |
7.0 |
10.5 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
(11.6) |
(1.4) |
3.0 |
(2.0) |
(9.0) |
|
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(1.4) |
3.0 |
(2.0) |
(9.0) |
(19.5) |
|
Source: JDC Group accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Dar Global’s expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is, in our view, an attractive and low risk move, entirely in keeping with the company’s ambition to roll out its ‘capital-light’ business model to attractive new locations. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and retains an ambition to expand the portfolio beyond KSA and to develop a hospitality portfolio. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.