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SEK6.71
▲ −0.16 (−2.33%)
Market capitalisation
SEK435m
Research: Healthcare
Immunicum’s Q318 results detailed progress on a number of levels including regulatory, scientific and financing. The clinical progress resulted in increased administrative and R&D spend in the last year, which was higher than our estimates, and reflected the number and earlier stage of Immunicum’s clinical trials outlined in Q3 results relative to Q2. Gross cash at end Q3 was SEK133.2m, which will be bolstered by the recently announced c SEK351m (before expenses) rights issue inflows expected before year-end FY18.
Written by
Immunicum |
Aiming to be ready to use in solid tumour combos |
Q318 results |
Pharma & biotech |
9 November 2018 |
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Immunicum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Immunicum’s Q318 results detailed progress on a number of levels including regulatory, scientific and financing. The clinical progress resulted in increased administrative and R&D spend in the last year, which was higher than our estimates, and reflected the number and earlier stage of Immunicum’s clinical trials outlined in Q3 results relative to Q2. Gross cash at end Q3 was SEK133.2m, which will be bolstered by the recently announced c SEK351m (before expenses) rights issue inflows expected before year-end FY18.
Year end |
Revenue (SEKm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
0.0 |
(80.3) |
(3.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
0.0 |
(95.9) |
(1.9) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
0.0 |
(266.8) |
(2.9) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/20e |
0.0 |
(56.9) |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are as reported.
Q3 outflows increase ahead of studies and trials
Q318 results reflect Immunicum’s accelerating development stage, to be funded by the proposed c SEK351m (before costs) capital raises expected to be completed in December. Overall operating cash outflows for the nine months to September were SEK100.8m (SEK16.7m in Q3), up from SEK59m a year ago. Q3 R&D and administrative costs of SEK17.2m and SEK6.1m respectively were higher than our estimates due to advanced preparations for the US Phase Ib/II (ILIAD), as well as the ongoing Phase II renal cell carcinoma (MERECA) studies. Net cash at end September 2018 was SEK132.4m (SEK43.6m in Q317 and SEK149.1m at end Q218). We estimate further operating cash outflow increases as both the ILIAD study and investment in manufacturing to commercial scale start. We note these are now phased in from Q3, earlier than we had previously anticipated.
Recent preclinical data add to confidence
Preclinical results presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology 2018 Congress demonstrated the synergistic anti-tumour activity of the combination of systemically administered checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) or immune enhancers, and Immunicum’s lead product – ilixadencel – administered intratumourally. These are important data as ilixadencel is about to start the Phase Ib/II ILIAD study in combination with systemic CPIs and demonstrating that immune priming with ilixadencel can overcome resistance to CPI monotherapy should ensure better responses with the combination in the three tumour types to be studied. Prolonged survival with the anti-CD137/4-1BB immune enhancers also potentially expands ilixadencel’s options in combination therapies and partnerships.
Valuation: Updated for accelerated trial spend
Q3 results and updates on development prompt us to further update our valuation. We had already included the upcoming stock issues. We now allow for higher and earlier operating expenses than we had previously, which fine-tunes our valuation to SEK1.4bn or SEK15.1 per share, from SEK1.5bn or SEK16.4 per share.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
|
|
SEK'000s |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
|
Year end 31 December |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
EBITDA |
(80,629) |
(95,804) |
(266,846) |
(56,904) |
(59,571) |
|||
Operating expenses |
|
|
(80,847) |
(96,017) |
(267,080) |
(57,162) |
(59,854) |
|
Depreciation |
|
|
|
(71) |
(61) |
(3) |
(1) |
(0) |
Operating income |
|
|
218 |
213 |
234 |
258 |
283 |
|
Reported operating profit |
|
|
(80,700) |
(95,865) |
(266,849) |
(56,905) |
(59,571) |
|
Net Interest |
|
|
|
362 |
(15) |
6 |
(13) |
7 |
Profit before tax (reported) |
|
|
(80,338) |
(95,880) |
(266,843) |
(56,918) |
(59,563) |
|
Reported tax |
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Profit after tax (reported) |
|
|
(80,338) |
(95,880) |
(266,843) |
(56,918) |
(59,563) |
|
Minority interests |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net income (reported) |
|
|
(80,338) |
(95,880) |
(266,843) |
(56,918) |
(59,563) |
|
Basic average number of shares outstanding |
|
25,959 |
49,444 |
92,258 |
92,258 |
92,258 |
||
EPS - basic reported (SEK) |
|
|
(3.09) |
(1.94) |
(2.89) |
(0.62) |
(0.65) |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-current Assets |
|
|
105,309 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Property Plant and equipment, net |
|
69 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
||
Other financial assets |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Other non-current Assets |
|
|
105,239 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Current Assets |
|
|
140,837 |
423,533 |
156,929 |
100,313 |
40,838 |
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
128,883 |
416,881 |
150,093 |
93,285 |
33,606 |
|
Accounts receivable |
|
|
0 |
3,675 |
3,859 |
4,052 |
4,254 |
|
Marketable securities and short-term investments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Prepaid expenses |
|
|
8,454 |
2,977 |
2,977 |
2,977 |
2,977 |
|
Current Liabilities |
|
|
55,740 |
15,214 |
15,449 |
15,750 |
15,838 |
|
Accounts payable |
|
|
11,714 |
842 |
1,077 |
1,378 |
1,466 |
|
Accrued other liabilities |
|
|
43,694 |
13,081 |
13,081 |
13,081 |
13,081 |
|
Other current liabilities |
|
|
331 |
1,291 |
1,291 |
1,291 |
1,291 |
|
Non-Current Liabilities |
|
|
850 |
850 |
850 |
850 |
850 |
|
Long term debt |
|
|
850 |
850 |
850 |
850 |
850 |
|
Equity |
|
|
||||||
Total Shareholder's Equity |
|
|
189,556 |
409,577 |
142,734 |
85,816 |
(30,666) |
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash Flow from Operations |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT (Operating profit) |
|
|
(80,700) |
(95,865) |
(266,849) |
(56,905) |
(59,571) |
|
Depreciation |
|
|
|
71 |
62 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
Income Tax paid |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other Working Capital changes |
|
34,455 |
(37,316) |
51 |
108 |
(155) |
||
Cash interest paid |
|
|
(274) |
(15) |
(26) |
(26) |
0 |
|
Cash interest received |
|
|
0 |
0 |
32 |
13 |
7 |
|
Net cash used in Operating activities |
|
(46,447) |
(133,140) |
(266,788) |
(56,809) |
(59,678) |
||
Cash Flow from Investing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchase of fixed assets |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Sale of Investments |
|
|
10,162 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net cash used in investing activities |
|
10,162 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Cash Flow from Financing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in Capital Stock |
|
|
62,269 |
421,139 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net cash from Financing activities |
|
62,269 |
421,139 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Changes in Cash and Cash Equivalent |
|
25,984 |
287,999 |
(266,788) |
(56,809) |
(59,678) |
||
Cash and Cash Equivalents - Beginning |
|
102,899 |
128,883 |
416,882 |
150,094 |
93,285 |
||
Cash and Cash Equivalents - End |
|
128,883 |
416,882 |
150,094 |
93,285 |
33,607 |
||
Net cash/(debt) |
128,033 |
416,031 |
149,243 |
92,434 |
32,756 |
|||
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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