paragon — Agreement to sell paragon semvox

paragon (FRA: PGN)

Last close As at 20/06/2024

3.02

−0.02 (−0.66%)

Market capitalisation

14m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

paragon — Agreement to sell paragon semvox

paragon has announced that it is to sell its digital assistance business unit, paragon semvox, to CARIAD, the wholly owned software subsidiary of Volkswagen. The anticipated price is c €40m, which equates to approximately 33% of paragon’s enterprise value. The disposal seems likely to provide sufficient liquidity to satisfy paragon’s bond redemptions for FY23, which should finally release the shackles on the rating. The final timing of regulatory approvals, and any additional accelerated redemptions from the recently extended eurobond, remain important. However, as financial risk is retired, attention should start to focus on paragon’s automotive growth plans.

Andy Chambers

Written by

Andy Chambers

Director, Industrials

Industrials

paragon

Agreement to sell paragon semvox

Automotive components

QuickView

2 December 2022

Price

€5.7

Market cap

€26m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

PGN

Listing

Frankfurt SE

Shares in issue

4.53m

Business description

Based in Delbrück, Germany, paragon designs and supplies automotive electronics and solutions, selling directly to OEMs, including sensors, interior, digital assistance, body kinematics and power. It has production facilities in Germany, Croatia and China.

Bull

Positive operational performance tracking towards medium- and long-term trading targets.

Increasing penetration of paragon’s product offering unaffected by the transition to electric vehicles from internal combustion engine powertrains.

Disposal of semvox reduces financial pressure on a more focused automotive investment strategy.

Bear

Positive execution of growth ambitions requires economic stability.

Debt reduction efforts likely to remain a primary focus for capital allocation.

Disputed partial appropriation of founder’s stake in KGaA is an unwanted distraction.

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

paragon has announced that it is to sell its digital assistance business unit, paragon semvox, to CARIAD, the wholly owned software subsidiary of Volkswagen. The anticipated price is c €40m, which equates to approximately 33% of paragon’s enterprise value. The disposal seems likely to provide sufficient liquidity to satisfy paragon’s bond redemptions for FY23, which should finally release the shackles on the rating. The final timing of regulatory approvals, and any additional accelerated redemptions from the recently extended eurobond, remain important. However, as financial risk is retired, attention should start to focus on paragon’s automotive growth plans.

Disposal of semvox should crystallise value

Although subject to possible completion adjustments, a debt free price of €40m for semvox looks attractive. Sales of €12m in the last 12 months represent less than 8% of group revenues, although given its relatively early stage of business development, semvox clearly has future growth potential. Together with its artificial intelligence technology capability that growth is clearly of interest and value to CARIAD, which has been developing its own digital assistance business. Completion should occur in spring 2023 once all regulatory hurdles are cleared.

Help to alleviate bond redemption pressures

The €40m of sales proceeds should be more than sufficient to cover the redemption of the outstanding Swiss franc bonds due in April 2023 (CHF21m), as well as the €5m accelerated partial redemption payment due next year for the €50m eurobond (its maturity was extended to FY27 earlier this year). Increasingly positive cash flow should then improve in future years as the business growth plan is executed, further reducing the debt burden to more appropriate operational levels.

Current year trading has developed positively

The Q322 operational performance remained encouraging allowing management to improve FY22 revenue guidance to c €170m, with EBITDA margins above 15%, implying FY22 EBITDA of c €26m and free cash flow (FCF) of c €12m. The growth also means the group is tracking towards management’s FY26 targets for revenues of €250–300m with EBITDA margins of 20%, which should support progressive improvement in FCF. While no current consensus is available management’s guidance implies undemanding earnings metrics from next year and a substantial discount to cash flow valuations.

Historical financials

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20*

127.2

(6.0)

0.79

0.00

N/A

0.0

12/21

146.9

1.2

0.27

0.00

N/A

0.0

12/22e

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

12/23e

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Source: paragon. Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. *Restated following Voltabox sale.

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE-OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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United Kingdom

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United Kingdom

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. Where Edison has used consensus estimates within this publication, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.

Exclusion of liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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