BluGlass — Transition to direct-to-market components model

BluGlass (AU: BLG)

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Research: TMT

BluGlass — Transition to direct-to-market components model

During FY21 BluGlass continued the transition from an equipment sales and licensing business to a direct-to-market components operation focused on rapidly expanding opportunities in the laser diode industry. While the launch of its first laser diodes has been delayed by reliability issues relating to third-party processing steps, management notes that the fund-raising activities this June and July should provide a cash runway through to initial customer revenues from laser diode sales.

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Written by

TMT

BluGlass

Transition to direct-to-market components model

FY21 results

Tech hardware & equipment

6 October 2021

Price

A$0.03

Market cap

A$32m

Net cash (A$m) at end June 2021 (excluding lease liabilities and A$6.4m raised in July 2021)

2.2

Shares in issue

1,003m

Free float

87.3%

Code

BLG

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.1)

(3.0)

(53.2)

Rel (local)

(7.7)

(2.4)

(61.9)

52-week high/low

A$0.12

A$0.03

Business description

BluGlass is an Australian technology company that is developing and commercialising a breakthrough compound semiconductor technology for the production of high efficiency devices such as laser diodes, light emitting diodes (LEDs) and micro-LEDs.

Next event

AGM

22 November 2021

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

BluGlass is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited.

During FY21 BluGlass continued the transition from an equipment sales and licensing business to a direct-to-market components operation focused on rapidly expanding opportunities in the laser diode industry. While the launch of its first laser diodes has been delayed by reliability issues relating to third-party processing steps, management notes that the fund-raising activities this June and July should provide a cash runway through to initial customer revenues from laser diode sales.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

EBITDA
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

06/18

0.7

(3.8)

(3.8)

(0.97)

0.00

N/A

06/19

0.4

(5.1)

(5.1)

(1.21)

0.00

N/A

06/20

0.7

(3.6)

(4.8)

(1.01)

0.00

N/A

06/21

0.4

(4.6)

(6.8)

(0.94)

0.00

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Fully funded to laser diode commercialisation

Revenues from customers, which were entirely attributable to epitaxy services, fell by 45% year-on-year during FY21 to A$0.4m because orders were delayed by coronavirus related lockdowns and the company was focused on laser diode development. Costs widened, reflecting high levels of R&D activity on laser diodes and investment in the US operation, which was set up to manage the sequence of third-party processing steps required once the laser diode epitaxy has been manufactured in the group’s Australian manufacturing facility. Adjusted EBITDA losses consequently widened by A$1.0m to A$4.6m. The year-end balance sheet had A$4.2m cash and a A$2.0m short-term loan, which was repaid following an oversubscribed entitlement offer and private placing collectively raising A$6.4m (gross) in July 2021. Management notes that these fund-raising activities should provide a cash runway through to initial customer revenues from laser diodes.

On the cusp of revenue growth

BluGlass had hoped to start shipping samples of its first-generation laser diodes by the end of FY21 (June 2021). The product launch has been delayed until problems in the post-epitaxial processing steps carried out by third parties have been resolved. The company is currently working with multiple vendors and expert fabrication specialists with established production capabilities to solve this issue.

Valuation: Aiming to secure 6–10% of global laser diode market

While management has not provided formal guidance, it aims to secure 6–10% of the global laser diode market by 2026, which it estimates will then total US$658m (A$849m). This represents annual revenues of around A$60–90m. This level of market penetration is dependent on BluGlass successfully completing the development of the second generation of higher-performance laser diodes using its remote plasma chemical vapour deposition (RPCVD) technology. Our scenario analysis calculates this level of revenues would generate EBITDA of A$14.1–21.6m.

FY21 performance

Revenues still attributable only to epitaxy services

Revenues up to this point have been derived entirely from epitaxy services. Revenues from customers fell by 45% year-on-year during FY21 to A$0.4m because EpiBlu foundry orders were delayed by coronavirus related lockdowns in Europe and the United States and the company was highly focused on laser diode development.

Costs rising ahead of laser diode launch

Exhibit 1: FY21 and FY20 compared

A$000s

FY21

FY20

Sales revenue

364

656

Grants and tax rebate

3,993

3,136

Consumables

(3,070)

(1,898)

Other expenses

(5,911)

(5,510)

EBITDA

(4,624)

(3,616)

Depreciation and amortisation

(2,133)

(1,072)

Share-based payments

536

(1,237)

Reported operating loss

(6,221)

(5,925)

Finance costs (net)

(78)

(69)

Reported loss before tax

(6,298)

(5,994)

Tax

0

0

Reported loss after tax

(6,298)

(5,994)

Reported EPS (c)

(0.87)

(1.27)

Source: Company data.

The cost of consumables rose by A$1.2m to A$3.1m because of high levels of R&D activity on laser diodes, including the outsourcing of multiple wafer processing steps once the epitaxial layers on the wafer have been deposited in BluGlass’s manufacturing facility in Australia. Employee costs increased by A$0.6m to A$3.6m reflecting the establishment of the group’s US operations, which manage the group’s laser diode fabrication processes and supply chain, including packaging and reliability testing of the laser diodes prior to shipping to customers. However, the company benefited from A$0.7m in government grants, including funding from the Job Keeper programme and a A$3.3m R&D tax rebate relating to FY21, so EBITDA losses widened by only A$1.0m to A$4.6m. Depreciation charges were A$1.1m higher, reflecting commissioning of the BLG-500 reactor, which is a high capacity metal organic chemical vapour deposition (MOCVD) system retrofitted to include RPCVD capability at the start of the fiscal year, so losses before tax (adjusted for share-based payments) widened by A$2.1m to A$6.8m. EPS losses (adjusted for share-based payments) narrowed by 6% as a result of the dilutive effect of a rights issue and shortfall placement in April 2020 and a private placement in June 2021 (see below).

Fully funded to laser diode commercialisation

Net cash (excluding A$1.6m lease liabilities at end June 2021) was reduced by A$3.2m during FY21 to A$2.2m at the year-end. This total included A$4.2m cash and a short-term loan of A$2.0m agreed with Radium Capital in June 2021 that was completely repaid in July following a fund-raising (see below). Investment in capital equipment was minimal (A$0.1m) as the investment in production capability in Australia completed during FY20. All R&D activity was expensed. A A$0.4m increase in trade and other receivables primarily related to the R&D tax rebate provided by the Australian government. During the fiscal year the company raised A$2m (gross) at A$0.03/share in June 2021 through a private placement to technology focused fund Regal Funds Management. This activity was followed in July (ie after the year-end) by an oversubscribed entitlement offer to existing shareholders raising A$5.92m (gross) and a A$0.5m (gross) placement to clients of Viriathus Capital, both at A$0.03/share. Management notes that it expects to receive a c A$3.3m R&D tax refund in October 2021. Management notes that the recent fund-raising activity should provide a cash runway through to initial customer revenues from laser diode sales.

Preparing to launch beachhead products

Developing the direct-to-market laser diode portfolio

Launch of first-generation product delayed

BluGlass had hoped to start shipping samples of its first-generation laser diodes by the end of FY21 (June 2021). The performance of these devices could not be confirmed until the epitaxy processed at BluGlass’s facility had been packaged into fully functional devices by third parties. Tests on the packaged prototype devices showed lasing results consistent with commercial specifications for output power and wavelength. This showed the soundness of BluGlass’s epitaxial process. However, when the prototypes went through reliability testing, they showed a gradual loss of light output over time, which did not meet with commercial specifications. This issue is related to the part of the devices where light leaves the diode and is caused by problems in the post-epitaxial processing steps carried out by third parties. While this is the first time that BluGlass has experienced this issue with its devices, the phenomenon is well understood within the laser diode industry. The company is currently working with multiple vendors and expert fabrication specialists with established production capabilities to solve this reliability issue, which is the final technical hurdle before products can be launched. At present there are several iterations of devices progressing in parallel through the supply chain. Once a solution has been identified and confirmed, it will be integrated across BluGlass’ entire suite of laser diode products. This means that instead of launching different wavelength laser diodes one after the other as the designs are completed, the company will be able to launch multiple products simultaneously once the reliability issue has been fixed.

RPCVD laser diodes successfully demonstrate lasing behaviour

In August BluGlass successfully demonstrated the world’s first working tunnel junction laser diodes manufactured using its proprietary RPCVD technology (described in our initiation report). The uncoated, unpackaged prototype devices have demonstrated good lasing behaviour. While further development work is required to optimise the design and performance, this milestone helps confirm the potential of the RPCVD laser diode designs for higher power, more efficient, high value, gallium nitride laser diodes for use in commercial applications such as 3D printing and industrial welding.

Strengthening management with laser diode experts

Following the resignation of the former CEO in June 2021, BluGlass has recently appointed laser diode executive Jim Haden as president. Jim has held senior executive and advisory roles at several of BluGlass’s prospective customers and competitors, including Kyocera SLD, nLight, Coherent and JDS Uniphase. His operational and technical leadership experience, together with a track record of solving technical challenges, delivering products to market and driving revenue growth, will be highly beneficial as BluGlass transitions from R&D to commercialisation. Jim joins Non-executive Director Jean-Michel Pelaprat, who is co-founder of blue laser pioneer Nuburu and was appointed in May 2021, and Senior Laser Scientist Dr Arkadi Goulakov, who joined the group’s US operations in March 2021 to assist with fabrication, back-end processing and reliability. Dr Arkadi has more than 30 years’ experience in developing and commercialising cutting-edge opto-electronics components including over 17 years in the laser diode industry.

Scaling up operations for commercial deliveries

During FY21, the company set-up a supply chain for manufacturing laser diodes in volume on 2” diameter wafers. In July 2020 BluGlass successfully commissioned the first large-scale RPCVD manufacturing platform to date, the BLG-500. The system is able to process six 6” diameter wafers or 42 2” diameter wafers simultaneously, ensuring there is enough production capacity in-house for the epitaxial wafers used to make laser diodes. The company also evaluated and engaged the third parties who carry out the sequence of steps that convert these epitaxial wafers to fully functional devices. These steps include cutting the wafer into individual laser diode chips, adding an optical coating, packaging the chips and burn-in. The company also set-up its own facility in the United States for testing the finished devices prior to shipping to customers and for managing the third parties involved in the supply chain.

Valuation

Aiming to secure 6–10% of the laser diode market by 2026

While management has not provided formal guidance, it aims to secure 6–10% of the global laser diode market by 2026, which it estimates will then total A$849m. This would represent annual revenues of around A$60–90m. In our opinion, BluGlass will need to complete the development of its next-generation, higher brightness laser diodes manufactured using RPCVD for certain key epitaxial layers to achieve these levels of market penetration. The scenario analysis presented in our initiation note calculates this level of revenues would generate EBITDA of A$14.1–21.6m.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

A$'k

2018

2019

2020

2021

Year end 30 June

AASB

AASB

AASB

AASB

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue (excluding grants)

 

 

714

425

656

364

Cost of Sales (excluding direct labour)

(1,158)

(1,745)

(1,898)

(3,070)

Gross Profit

(444)

(1,320)

(1,242)

(2,707)

EBITDA

 

 

(3,750)

(5,109)

(3,616)

(4,624)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(3,941)

(5,287)

(4,687)

(6,757)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

(8,695)

0

0

Share-based payments

(56)

(674)

(1,237)

536

Reported operating profit

(3,997)

(14,656)

(5,925)

(6,221)

Net Interest

157

236

(69)

(78)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(3,784)

(5,052)

(4,757)

(6,835)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(3,840)

(14,421)

(5,994)

(6,298)

Reported tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(3,784)

(5,052)

(4,757)

(6,835)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(3,840)

(14,421)

(5,994)

(6,298)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

389.4

418.3

473.1

724.6

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

(0.97)

(1.21)

(1.01)

(0.94)

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

(0.97)

(1.21)

(1.01)

(0.94)

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

(0.99)

(3.45)

(1.27)

(0.87)

Dividend (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

29.8%

-40.5%

54.5%

-44.6%

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Normalised Operating Margin

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

8,954

5,395

7,883

5,840

Intangible Assets

8,695

0

0

0

Tangible Assets

259

5,395

7,883

5,840

Investments & other

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

17,716

8,558

8,547

7,718

Stocks

54

137

140

131

Debtors

2,253

2,262

2,919

3,351

Cash & cash equivalents

15,354

6,116

5,430

4,176

Other

55

43

58

59

Current Liabilities

 

 

(963)

(1,003)

(1,154)

(3,378)

Creditors

(530)

(473)

(408)

(566)

Lease liabilities

0

0

(168)

(184)

Short term borrowings (excluding lease liabilities)

0

0

0

(1,954)

Provisions

(433)

(530)

(578)

(674)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(318)

(1,306)

(2,882)

(2,670)

Long term borrowings (excluding lease liabilities)

0

0

0

0

Provisions and lease liabilities

(318)

(1,306)

(2,882)

(2,670)

Net Assets

 

 

25,389

11,644

12,393

7,509

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

25,389

11,644

12,393

7,509

CASH FLOW

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(3,514)

(4,931)

(4,348)

(4,809)

Capex

(114)

(4,308)

(1,681)

(90)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Net interest

0

0

(9)

0

Equity financing

10,471

1

5,507

1,859

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

6,843

(9,237)

(532)

(3,040)

Opening net debt/(cash) (excluding lease liabilities)

 

 

(8,511)

(15,354)

(6,116)

(5,430)

FX

0

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

0

0

(154)

(168)

Closing net debt/(cash) (excluding lease liabilities)

 

 

(15,354)

(6,116)

(5,430)

(2,222)

Source: Company accounts


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by BluGlass and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by BluGlass. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by BluGlass and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by BluGlass. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: TMT

Datatec — Operational gearing drives EPS growth

H122 H122 underlying earnings per share (uEPS) is expected to be between 8.0 and 8.5 US cents, more than double the H121 comparator at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (H121: 3.9 US cents) and c 50% of our FY22 uEPS estimates (16.5 US cents). Under JSE rules, management is required to put out a further trading update (following the 15 September trading update), since H122 EPS estimates are expected to be more than 20% above the H121 comparator. As we flagged in our 15 September note, Datatec’s operational gearing magnified the top-line performance (H122 revenues rose 15% y-o-y to c US$2.26bn) at the earnings level. Assuming momentum is carried into H222, and considering Datatec’s historical seasonal weighting to the second half of the year, the group remains on track to meet and potentially exceed our FY22 earnings estimates. underlying earnings per share (uEPS) is expected to be between 8.0 and 8.5 US cents, more than double the H121 comparator at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (H121: 3.9 US cents) and c 50% of our FY22 uEPS estimates (16.5 US cents). Under JSE rules, management is required to put out a further trading update (following the 15 September trading update), since H122 EPS estimates are expected to be more than 20% above the H121 comparator. As we flagged in our 15 September note, Datatec’s operational gearing magnified the top-line performance (H122 revenues rose 15% y-o-y to c US$2.26bn) at the earnings level. Assuming momentum is carried into H222, and considering Datatec’s historical seasonal weighting to the second half of the year, the group remains on track to meet and potentially exceed our FY22 earnings estimates.

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