Trading at top end of five-year plan

YouGov 9 October 2018 Update
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YouGov

Trading at top end of five-year plan

Final Results

Media

9 October 2018

Price

472p

Market cap

£498m

£1:US$1.34

Net cash at end July 2018 (£m)

30.6

Shares in issue

105.5m

Free float

73.7%

Code

YOU

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(5.0)

(5.0)

61.4

Rel (local)

(4.0)

(0.1)

67.4

52-week high/low

500p

300p

Business description

YouGov is an international market research and data and analytics group offering a data-led suite of products and services including YouGov BrandIndex, YouGov Profiles, YouGov Omnibus and custom research.

Next events

New 5-yr plan

Spring 2019

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Neil Shah

+44 (0)20 3077 5715

YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

YouGov has delivered strong results that demonstrate the success of its shift in its business model towards a real-time data analytics business with a growing subscription revenue base. It continues to innovate, developing new products and services and augmenting the existing offering and is further expanding its geographic reach, with the investment supported by the cash-rich balance sheet. A new five-year plan is expected to be set out in Spring 2019 and we anticipate that this will also have ambitious targets for growth and earnings that will support the premium rating.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/EBITDA (x)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

07/16

88.2

14.4

8.5

1.4

36.9

55.4

0.3

07/17

107.0

17.9

10.5

2.0

27.3

44.9

0.4

07/18

116.6

26.9

15.6

3.0

19.0

30.3

0.6

07/19e

132.0

27.5

17.2

3.5

18.5

27.5

0.8

07/20e

141.0

29.5

18.3

4.0

17.1

25.8

0.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Revenues and margins ahead

FY18 revenues were up 9% on prior year, 12% on a constant currency (CC) basis, despite the shift in the Custom Research business away from one-off projects holding that segment’s revenue performance flat. Data Products and Services continue to build at an impressive rate, up 30% and 26% respectively (CC). A shift in the allocation of cost from Custom Research to the centre (a more accurate reflection) flattered the improvement in operating margin, but stripping this back, the segmental margin still grew from 18.9% to 24.1%. At group level, the operating margin rose to 16.9% (FY17: 13.6%). The increasing sophistication of the tools and analysis, all based on the group’s proprietary data derived from its own panel, is enabling it to become more deeply embedded in its clients’ work flows and underpins the growing subscription base, as well as supporting margins.

Cash to invest and grow

The US remains the most important territory (47% FY18 revenue), with the group now operating in 50 national markets. Management is focused on building YouGov as a global partner in research data and analytics, requiring investment both on innovation and on building geographic reach. The group’s cash resource (£30.6m at the end of July) comfortably covers both objectives. Small bolt-on acquisitions are now also part of the armoury (Australian firm Galaxy was bought in December 2017 for A$1.25m; sports specialist SMG in May 2018 for £1m, with a structured earn-out). Our updated model indicates end FY19e cash of £30.1m.

Valuation: Premium sustained

YouGov is growing its top line well ahead of the market research sector (+3.3% in 2017: ESOMAR), while also improving the quality of its earnings as it builds its recurring revenue base. The current share price puts it on a rating well ahead of sectoral peers (see page 3), but considerably below the listed SaaS subscription businesses with which it has increasing commonality.

Delivery of strong FY18, good prospects FY19e

The salient points of the FY18 results are as follows:

A 9% increase in group revenues (12% at CC)

2% of revenue growth attributable to acquisitions

Adjusted operating profits up 35% (figures quoted here are after share-based payments)

Improved operating margins in all three segments and across all geographic segments

Asia-Pacific moved into operating profit, with strongest revenue growth ion group at 62%.

Near-doubling of Central costs reflects inclusion of £2.5m previously attributed to Custom Research and £1.8m of additional costs relating to the LTIP; ex-these, increase was 37%.

Investment in technology: £4.4m (of which £3.9m was software); Investment in panel: £2.8m; other capex on PPE £1.0m

New offices Spain, Italy, India

Dividend increased by 50% to 3.0p

Exhibit 1: Summary results by segment

H118 (£m)

Gth

h218 (£m)

Gth

FY18 (£m)

Gth / prior year

Constant currency gth (%)

Revenue

Data Products - Brand Index

11.40

18%

12.30

22%

23.700

20%

Data Products - Other

2.98

129%

3.76

25%

6.746

56%

Data Products - Total

14.38

31%

16.06

12%

30.445

26%

30%

Data Services - Omnibus

12.70

24%

14.52

25%

27.219

24%

Data Services - Other

0.74

1%

1.00

51%

1.737

24%

Data Services – Total

13.44

22%

15.52

26%

28.956

24%

26%

Custom Research

29.135

-2%

29.5

-3%

58.657

-3%

0%

Eliminations

-0.64

134%

-0.859

-1.499

50%

GROUP TOTAL

56.96

61.10

116.560

9%

12%

Operating Profit

Data Products - Total

4.785

73%

6.9

61%

11.659

66%

Data Services – Total

3.511

41%

4.5

39%

8.002

40%

Custom Research

6.863

60%

7.3

57%

14.121

59%

GROUP TOTAL

15.16

59%

18.62

54%

33.782

56%

Operating Margin

Data Products - Total

33.3%

42.8%

38.3%

29.2%^

Data Services – Total

26.1%

28.9%

27.6%

24.6%^

Custom Research

23.6%

24.6%

24%

14.8%^**

OPERATING MARGIN (pre-Central Costs)

26.6%

30.5%

29.0%

13.6%^**

Central Costs

-6.329

-7.779

-14.108

98%**

Operating Profit

8.830

10.84

19.674

35%

GROUP OPERATING MARGIN

15.5%

17.7%

16.9%

13.6%^

Source: Company accounts  Note: ^Prior year; ** change in allocation

The operating profit referred to here is as per the company’s definition, including share-based payments, and hence is a lower figure than that shown in our model excerpt in Exhibit 5, below.

Management believes that the current financial year has started well and it “remains confident of future growth potential”.

The statement contains detailed descriptions of the data products and services and the enhancements that are currently being assessed and launched. These all underline the group’s move further away from being a traditional project-led, consultancy-style business model of market research into a partner providing real-time data and analytics based on rich, connected data provided by the group’s in-house panel and sold on a subscription basis. The growth in the Data Products (BrandIndex, increasing coupled with Profiles, which accounts for the bulk of ‘other’ in the Data Products segment) and in Data Services (94% of which is Omnibus) clearly demonstrated this progress, which is reinforced by the change in the type of custom work being undertaken.

Exhibit 2: Adjustments to forecasts

EPS

PBT

EBITDA

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2018

14.3

15.6

+9

23.0

26.9

+17

22.3

24.6

+10

2019e

15.8

17.2

+10

26.2

27.5

+5

25.5

26.5

+4

2020e

-

18.3

N/A

-

29.5

N/A

-

28.7

N/A

Source: Company accounts, Edison

The FY18 figures were around 10% better than our previous forecasts, partly reflecting the small acquisitions that we had not built into the numbers, with a small additional benefit from currency, but mostly from good trading. The larger discrepancy in the adjusted PBT number shown in the table above is due to Edison’s policy on adding back the share-based payments to the adjusted figures. In this instance, the share-based payments were considerably higher than we had anticipated – double at £3.646m, reflecting the increased likelihood of a full payment – see below. Stripping these out, the difference between the FY18 adjusted PBT and our prior forecast is also 10%.

We have adjusted our FY19e forecasts, lifting our EBITDA number by 4% (to give 8% year-on-year growth), which may prove to be conservative if the trading momentum continues at the current rate. Forecast EPS is lifted by a greater amount, as we have altered our anticipated blended tax rate down from 25% to 23% to reflect the lower corporation tax now prevalent in the US.

New LTIP to overlap

The LTIP put in place in 2014 was based on five-year CAGR in earnings per share, with full payout requiring 25% growth in adjusted EPS. Other targets, such as an average operating margin of over 12% (which would happen even if the group was only to breakeven at the operating profit level in FY19e), and the trebling of share price needed to trigger a further payment to the CEO if the other targets are met in full, look very likely to have been achieved. 25% CAGR in EPS would be FY19e EPS of 17.9p on our basis, against our current forecast of 17.2p.

The new scheme that is being drawn up currently will overlap with the 2014 scheme for one year in order not to drive any short-termism that might be engendered by this target.


Valuation – premium maintained

Exhibit 3: Peer valuation

Name

ytd performance (%)

price - reporting currency

Quoted Currency

Market cap (m)

EV/Sales 1FY (x)

EV/Sales 2FY (x)

EV/EBITDA last (x)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

PE last (x)

PE 1FY (x)

PE 2FY (x)

Nielsen Holdings

(25)

27

USD

9,715

2.8

2.8

9.7

9.8

9.5

15.9

15.6

14.1

IPSOS

(15)

26

EUR

1,155

0.9

0.9

8.7

8.1

7.5

8.2

9.5

8.7

Ebiquity

(63)

0

GBp

29

0.7

0.6

6.5

6.5

6.2

5.9

4.8

4.1

System1 Group

(42)

2

GBp

27

0.8

0.7

8.9

5.2

4.0

16.6

11.9

9.0

Next Fifteen Communications

27

6

GBp

440

2.0

1.9

15.8

10.7

9.9

31.6

17.4

16.0

Forrester Research Inc

6

47

USD

849

2.0

1.9

20.2

16.3

13.5

50.3

34.3

30.3

Average

1.5

1.5

11.6

9.4

8.4

21.4

15.6

13.7

YouGov

22

4.65

GBp

524

3.6

3.4

18.7

18.1

16.8

29.8

27.1

25.4

Source: Bloomberg  Note: Prices as at 4 October 2018

YouGov retains its premium rating over quoted market research firms, although it has far less in common with the traditional operators than previously. As it continues to transition its business model to become more subscription based, it has more commonality with the SaaS providers in the CRM and marketing spaces, which are predominantly listed in the US. These trade on a current year EV/Sales of 7.3x (Source: SEG), double YouGov’s current rating. EV/EBITDA multiples are unreliable due to suppressed earnings for companies still in investment phase, whilst YouGov is self-evidently highly profitable.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 July

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

88,202

107,048

116,560

132,000

141,000

Cost of Sales

(19,476)

(21,339)

(21,496)

(25,969)

(26,173)

Gross Profit

68,726

85,709

95,064

106,031

114,827

EBITDA

 

 

12,874

17,210

24,551

26,457

28,730

Operating Profit (before amort., except. & SBP)*

 

 

12,059

16,036

23,320

25,232

27,480

Intangible Amortisation

(5,478)

(6,483)

(7,026)

(7,150)

(7,150)

Share based payments

(1,138)

(1,508)

(3,646)

(2,100)

(1,800)

Exceptionals

(1,108)

(488)

(826)

(800)

0

Other

(4)

103

2

0

0

Operating Profit

4,331

7,660

11,824

15,182

18,530

Net Interest

1,199

254

(51)

140

176

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

14,392

17,901

26,917

27,472

29,456

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

5,530

7,914

11,773

15,322

18,706

Tax

(2,111)

(3,273)

(3,615)

(5,962)

(6,499)

Profit After Tax (norm)

11,139

13,120

19,858

19,410

21,157

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,415

4,641

8,158

9,360

12,005

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

103.9

104.8

105.4

110.0

112.4

EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p)

 

 

8.5

10.5

15.6

17.2

18.3

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

3.3

4.5

7.7

8.5

10.7

Dividend per share (p)

1.4

2.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

Gross Margin (%)

77.9

80.1

81.6

80.3

81.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.6

16.1

21.1

20.0

20.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except & share-based payments) (%)

12.4

13.6

16.9

17.5

18.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

62,366

64,637

78,019

77,768

77,517

Intangible Assets

53,140

54,960

65,357

65,331

65,305

Tangible Assets

8,984

9,332

12,471

12,246

12,021

Investments

242

345

191

191

191

Current Assets

 

 

45,339

54,918

66,735

70,801

82,326

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

28,643

30,699

34,672

39,265

41,942

Cash

15,553

23,481

30,621

30,094

38,942

Current Liabilities

 

 

(27,823)

(34,177)

(41,445)

(44,672)

(47,375)

Creditors

(27,823)

(33,915)

(41,445)

(44,672)

(47,375)

Short term borrowings

0

(262)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(5,793)

(4,905)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(5,793)

(4,905)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

Net Assets

 

 

74,089

80,473

92,071

92,659

101,231

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

14,139

18,914

23,617

24,100

28,700

Net Interest

11

4

22

140

176

Tax

(2,365)

(2,487)

(5,501)

(5,934)

(6,097)

Capex

(6,076)

(7,661)

(8,181)

(10,000)

(8,500)

Acquisitions/disposals

(171)

0

(885)

(5,090)

(1,500)

Financing

16

175

259

0

0

Dividends

(1,028)

(1,470)

(2,106)

(3,744)

(3,931)

Net Cash Flow

4,526

7,475

7,225

(528)

8,848

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,017)

(15,553)

(23,219)

(30,621)

(30,092)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

1,010

191

177

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(15,553)

(23,219)

(30,621)

(30,093)

(38,940)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research     *Note: Co’s definition of operating profit includes SBP

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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