Strong Q321 update, third title in development

CI Games 27 October 2021 Update
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CI Games

Strong Q321 update, third title in development

Q321 trading update

Video games

27 October 2021

Price

PLN1.69

Market cap

PLN309m

PLN3.97/US$

Net cash (PLNm) at 30 June 2021

15.2

Shares in issue

182.9m

Free float

62.4%

Code

CIG

Primary exchange

Warsaw Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

15.4

19.6

35.2

Rel (local)

9.4

10.5

(9.1)

52-week high/low

179p

108p

Business description

Founded in 2002, CI Games is a Warsaw-based developer and publisher of AA+/AAA multi-platform video games for a global audience. It has specialised in first-person shooter and action-driven titles, and owns IP including the SGW and LotF franchises.

Next events

Q321 report

22 November 2021

FY21 results

April 2022

Analysts

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

CI Games is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In its Q321 trading update, CI Games confirmed strong Q321 revenues of c PLN30.2m and PAT of c PLN9.8m, a 32.5% net margin. Q4 is CI Games’ seasonally strongest quarter, so we anticipate Q421 trading to be similar to Q321. We have therefore raised our FY21 estimates, with FY21 revenues rising 12% to PLN105.0m, and a 32.5% margin giving reported PAT of PLN34.1m. CI Games also announced a new survival game for the PC and latest console generations on Unreal Engine 5 by Czech games developer, BatFields. The IP is to be owned by CI Games. We see this as a positive and necessary step as CI Games invests in broadening its games portfolio, forming the group’s third franchise if the title is successful. As outlined in our recent initiation, An emerging European game publisher, timely delivery of high-quality titles is critical to the investment case.

Year end

Revenue*
(PLNm)

EBITDA*
(PLNm)

PBT**
(PLNm)

EPS**
(PLN)

DPS
(PLN)

P/E
(x)

12/19

47.5

21.6

2.0

(0.01)

0.00

N/A

12/20

46.0

28.9

9.2

0.05

0.00

33.8

12/21e

105.0

62.1

37.9

0.17

0.00

9.9

12/22e

55.6

33.5

13.8

0.06

0.00

28.2

12/23e

256.1

131.9

111.4

0.49

0.00

3.4

Note: *Estimates are based on sales forecasts largely denominated in €/US$, and therefore vary with exchange rate movements to the PLN. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY21 revenue estimate raised, PAT flat

Based on strong sales of SGWC2, launched in June 2021, CI Games confirmed Q321 revenues ahead of expectations at c PLN30.2m and PAT of c PLN9.8m, a 32.5% net margin. We anticipate Q421 trading to be similar to Q321 and therefore we have raised our FY21 revenue estimate by 12% to PLN105.0m. However, with Q321 margins slightly lower than we had estimated, we have reflected a blended annual margin consistent with Q321 at 32.5%, leading to FY21 reported PAT of PLN34.1m,

Third title confirmed alongside SGW and LotF

The release date of the new title has not been confirmed by CI Games, but with an expected two- to three-year development timeline, we would assume a release date in 2024, to follow Lords of the Fallen 2 (LotF2) and the next iteration of Sniper Ghost Warrior (SGW), both of which we expect to be released in 2023. We also assume a development budget between that for Sniper: Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 (US$5–6m) and LotF2 (US$15m in our initiation). The BatFields team will work under the close supervision of CI Games, with senior input from the group’s creative, artistic and technical directors, as well as project management.

Valuation: Material discount to European peers

As a domestically held stock with a mixed history of execution, CI Games trades on 2.2x EV/EBITDA and 3.4x P/E in FY23e, compared to its peer group on 12.3x EV/EBITDA and 22.5x P/E in FY23e. If CI Games can successfully launch the next SGW game and LotF2 in FY23 to establish a broad-based portfolio, both our DCF analysis and peer multiples indicate the potential for almost 5x upside as a reward for early investors in this growth story.

FY21 estimates upgraded

Following a strong Q321 trading update and ahead of CI Games’ seasonally strongest quarter, we have raised our FY21 estimates, assuming that Q421 revenues will be similar to Q321, with annual revenues rising by 12% to PLN105.0m. However, as margins were slightly lower than we had estimated (Q321: 32.5%), we have reflected a 32.5% blended annual margin leading to FY21 reported PAT of PLN34.1m, materially unchanged from our previous estimate.

Exhibit 1: Revised estimates

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

PLN'000s

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Revenue

46,010

93,734

105,003

12.0%

55,651

55,589

-0.1%

256,661

256,087

-0.2%

COGS

(26,683)

(40,736)

(50,134)

23.1%

(29,492)

(29,459)

-0.1%

(111,543)

(111,294)

-0.2%

Gross Profit

19,327

52,998

54,869

3.5%

26,159

26,130

-0.1%

145,118

144,793

-0.2%

EBITDA

28,919

62,379

62,052

-0.5%

33,480

33,450

-0.1%

132,074

131,893

-0.1%

Profit Before Tax (reported)

8,532

38,203

37,879

-0.8%

13,797

13,763

-0.2%

111,534

111,358

-0.2%

Profit After Tax (reported)

7,097

34,383

34,091

-0.8%

12,418

12,387

-0.2%

89,227

89,086

-0.2%

EPS - normalised (PLN)

0.05

0.17

0.17

-0.8%

0.06

0.06

-0.2%

0.49

0.49

-0.2%

Dividend (PLN)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

(3.1)

103.7

128.2

(40.6)

(47.1)

361.2

360.7

Gross Margin (%)

42.0

56.5

52.3

47.0

47.0

56.5

56.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

62.9

66.5

59.1

60.2

60.2

51.5

51.5

Net margin (%)

15.4

36.7

32.5

22.3

22.3

34.8

34.8

Closing net debt/(cash)

(21,983)

(33,691)

(35,166)

4.4%

(57,126)

(55,568)

-2.7%

(70,480)

(68,383)

-3.0%

Source: CI Games accounts, Edison Investment Research

Although we have not made any material changes to our FY22 estimates (it is too early to be clear about how or whether sales of SGWC2 will change in FY22) or FY23 (which will be determined by the success of the next iteration of the SGW franchise and LotF2), we would note that our estimates are based on sales forecasts largely denominated in €/US$. These therefore vary with exchange rate movements when translated to PLN.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

PLN'000

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

21,985

47,478

46,010

105,003

55,589

256,087

COGS

(17,131)

(29,013)

(26,683)

(50,134)

(29,459)

(111,294)

Gross Profit

4,854

18,465

19,327

54,869

26,130

144,793

EBITDA

 

 

6,916

21,598

28,919

62,052

33,450

131,893

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(4,658)

2,837

9,380

37,845

13,678

111,391

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(17,720)

(1,790)

(651)

0

0

0

Share-based payments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Reported operating profit

(22,378)

1,047

8,729

37,845

13,678

111,391

Net Interest

431

(828)

(197)

34

85

(33)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(4,227)

2,009

9,183

37,879

13,763

111,358

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(21,947)

219

8,532

37,879

13,763

111,358

Reported tax

(746)

(3,096)

(1,435)

(3,788)

(1,376)

(22,272)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,959)

(1,553)

7,607

30,303

11,011

89,086

Profit After Tax (reported)

(22,693)

(2,877)

7,097

34,091

12,387

89,086

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(2,959)

(1,553)

7,607

30,303

11,011

89,086

Net income (reported)

(22,693)

(2,877)

7,097

34,091

12,387

89,086

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

151.1

155.4

167.8

182.9

182.9

182.9

EPS - normalised (PLN)

 

 

(0.02)

(0.01)

0.05

0.17

0.06

0.49

EPS - diluted normalised (PLN)

 

 

(0.02)

(0.01)

0.05

0.17

0.06

0.49

EPS - basic reported (PLN)

 

 

(0.15)

(0.02)

0.04

0.19

0.07

0.49

Dividend (PLN)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

(78.7)

116.0

(3.1)

128.2

(47.1)

360.7

Gross Margin (%)

22.1

38.9

42.0

52.3

47.0

56.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

31.5

45.5

62.9

59.1

60.2

51.5

Normalised Operating Margin

(21.2)

6.0

20.4

36.0

24.6

43.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

60,261

62,297

69,137

63,440

65,414

66,657

Intangible Assets

52,282

54,828

58,987

53,866

56,342

58,021

Tangible Assets

1,083

376

437

396

375

372

Right-of-use assets

0

1,133

6,484

5,949

5,468

5,035

Investments & other

6,896

5,960

3,229

3,229

3,229

3,229

Current Assets

 

 

19,433

34,803

41,150

73,708

79,281

160,514

Stocks

2,687

3,118

1,576

3,098

1,740

6,878

Debtors

3,110

19,921

6,833

17,261

10,414

46,587

Cash & cash equivalents

12,612

6,659

28,207

49,314

63,092

103,014

Other

1,024

5,105

4,534

4,035

4,035

4,035

Current Liabilities

 

 

(8,615)

(30,308)

(5,570)

(9,662)

(6,045)

(20,216)

Creditors

(3,375)

(4,675)

(3,169)

(5,288)

(3,323)

(10,788)

Tax and social security

(450)

0

0

0

0

0

Short term borrowings

(3,468)

(24,051)

(33)

(75)

(40)

(184)

Lease liabilities

(224)

(634)

(324)

(739)

(391)

(1,803)

Other

(1,098)

(948)

(2,044)

(3,560)

(2,290)

(7,441)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(17,209)

(6,474)

(8,173)

(18,652)

(9,875)

(45,490)

Long term borrowings

(12,744)

0

0

0

0

0

Lease liabilities

(303)

(269)

(5,867)

(13,390)

(7,088)

(32,655)

Other long term liabilities

(4,162)

(6,205)

(2,306)

(5,263)

(2,786)

(12,835)

Net Assets

 

 

53,870

60,318

96,544

108,833

128,775

161,465

Minority interests

0

0

(169)

(169)

(169)

(169)

Shareholders equity

 

 

53,870

60,318

96,375

108,664

128,606

161,296

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

7,347

20,770

28,722

62,085

33,535

131,861

Working capital

5,040

(20,665)

13,485

(9,831)

6,240

(33,846)

Exceptional & other

(3,592)

(1,463)

(51)

(15)

(106)

(91)

Tax

0

(136)

(1,547)

(3,788)

(1,376)

(22,272)

Operating cash flow

 

 

8,795

(1,494)

40,609

48,451

38,293

75,652

Capex

(1,107)

(2,059)

(2,597)

(5,927)

(3,138)

(14,455)

Capitalised development costs

(24,386)

(18,255)

(19,864)

(20,577)

(20,577)

(20,577)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net interest

(151)

(574)

(391)

(391)

(391)

(391)

Equity financing

20

9,279

29,124

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

126

538

190

(434)

(435)

(435)

Net Cash Flow

(16,703)

(12,565)

47,071

21,123

13,752

39,794

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13,335)

4,127

18,295

(21,983)

(35,166)

(55,568)

FX

0

0

(16)

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

(759)

(1,603)

(6,777)

(7,940)

6,649

(26,979)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

4,127

18,295

(21,983)

(35,166)

(55,568)

(68,383)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by CI Games and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by CI Games. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. CI Games never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of CI Games’ services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however CI Games do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that CI Games provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If CI Games’ advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by CI Games and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by CI Games. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. CI Games never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of CI Games’ services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however CI Games do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that CI Games provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If CI Games’ advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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