Strong organic growth in Q1

Claranova 8 November 2018 Update
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Claranova

Strong organic growth in Q1

Q1 revenue update

Software & comp services

8 November 2018

Price

€0.87

Market cap

€340m

US$1.14/€1

Net cash (€m) at end-FY18

37.5

Shares in issue

391.2m

Free float

91%

Code

CLA

Primary exchange

Euronext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.3)

0.5

74.0

Rel (local)

(5.5)

7.8

84.4

52-week high/low

€1.2

€0.4

Business description

Claranova consists of three businesses focused on mobile and internet technologies: PlanetArt (digital photo printing), Avanquest (consumer software) and myDevices (Internet of Things). It is headquartered in Paris with operations in Europe, the US and Canada.

Next event

AGM

29 November 2018

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

Claranova is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Claranova’s Q1 revenue growth of 61% y-o-y was made up of 33% organic growth and 27% growth from the recent acquisitions in the Avanquest business. All divisions showed organic growth in the quarter, prompting an upgrade to our forecasts. We lift our normalised EPS forecast by 1.9% in FY19 and 1.4% in FY20.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

EBITDA (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

06/17

130.2

(5.0)

(6.6)

(0.02)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/18

161.5

3.9

3.1

0.01

0.0

138.0

84.6

06/19e

234.6

16.9

13.6

0.02

0.0

44.7

19.5

06/20e

274.8

28.5

25.3

0.04

0.0

23.4

11.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q1 organic revenue growth of 33%

Claranova reported revenue growth of 61% y-o-y for Q119, with 45% growth in PlanetArt, 101% in Avanquest (3% organic) and 49% in myDevices. Organic revenue growth for the group was 33%, up from 24% for FY18. The acquired businesses in Avanquest added 27% growth to reported revenues and saw organic growth of 24% for Q119.

Upward revision to forecasts

We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected growth in all divisions in Q1. This results in a 1.1% increase in FY19 and FY20 revenues. At the EBITDA level, this drives an increase of 1.2% in FY19 and 0.9% in FY20. We have also reflected the share buy-backs made in October. Overall, we increase our normalised EPS forecast by 1.9% in FY19 and 1.4% in FY20. We note that the recently announced reseller agreements in the myDevices business have not yet contributed to revenues; however, the scale of these distributors means that they could add materially to myDevices revenues in the longer term. Similarly, as the FreePrints service was only launched in India at the end of September, we do not expect a meaningful contribution to revenues in FY19 but could start to see a material contribution in FY20.

Valuation: Upside based on growth outlook

Reflecting the different business models and minority interests for each division, we use a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuation. Based purely on peer group averages per division, we calculate a fair value of €0.91 per share. Due to market weakness, this is lower than the €0.95 we calculated the last time we wrote, despite the upgrade to forecasts. However, once multiples are adjusted to reflect our views on the growth and profitability of each division, this increases to €1.11 per share. Milestones that could provide upside to our forecasts include: successful adoption of FreePrints in India; growth of the acquired Adaware business; and recently signed distributors reselling the myDevices platform in the US and China.

Q1 revenue update

Claranova reported Q119 revenues of €48.2m, a 61% increase y-o-y. Organic growth increased to 33% y-o-y from 31% in Q418 and 24% for FY18. The table below breaks down revenues on a divisional basis.

Exhibit 1: Divisional Q1 revenues

Revenues (€m)

Q119

Q118

y-o-y

y-o-y

y-o-y

Reported

Constant currency

Organic

PlanetArt

30.4

21.0

45%

44%

45%

Avanquest

16.9

8.4

101%

99%

3%

myDevices

0.9

0.6

49%

47%

49%

Total

48.2

30.0

61%

59%

33%

Source: Claranova

PlanetArt – strong organic growth continues

This division exhibited another strong quarter. On a constant currency basis, growth of 44% was slightly lower than the 51% in Q418 and ahead of the 37% in Q318. The company saw the majority of growth from its FreePrints and FreePrints Photobooks apps, with the recently launched Photo Tiles app making a promising start. FreePrints service in India, launched at the end of September, has not had time to make a material contribution.

Avanquest – organic and inorganic growth

The underlying Avanquest business generated revenues of €8.7m, up 3% y-o-y and ahead of our expectations of flat revenues in FY19. The recently acquired Canadian businesses were consolidated from 1 July 2018, contributing revenues of €8.2m in Q119, equivalent to organic growth of 24% y-o-y.

myDevices – major contribution from Sprint contract

This division saw 47% revenue growth in constant currency. Sprint contributed nearly half of revenues in Q1. The recently signed partnerships with Ingram Micro, Alibaba Cloud and ARM have not yet had a chance to contribute to revenues, but offer potential for growth in coming quarters.

Changes to forecasts

We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected growth in all divisions in Q1. This results in a 1.1% increase in FY19 and FY20 revenues. At the EBITDA level, this drives an increase of 1.2% in FY19 and 0.9% in FY20. We have also reflected the share buy-backs made in October. Overall, we increase our normalised EPS forecast by 1.9% in FY19 and 1.4% in FY20.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

€m

FY19e

FY19e

FY20e

FY20e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

232.0

234.6

1.1%

45.3%

271.9

274.8

1.1%

17.1%

EBITDA

16.7

16.9

1.2%

333.6%

28.2

28.5

0.9%

68.5%

EBITDA margin

7.2%

7.2%

0.1%

4.8%

10.4%

10.4%

-0.2%

3.2%

Normalised operating profit

16.2

16.4

1.3%

382.2%

27.8

28.1

0.9%

71.2%

Normalised operating profit margin

7.0%

7.0%

0.0%

4.9%

10.2%

10.2%

0.0%

3.2%

Reported operating profit

10.8

11.0

1.9%

N/A

25.8

26.1

1.0%

137.7%

Reported operating margin

4.6%

4.7%

0.0%

8.5%

9.5%

9.5%

0.0%

4.8%

Normalised PBT

13.4

13.6

1.5%

338.6%

25.0

25.3

1.0%

85.9%

Reported PBT

8.0

8.2

2.6%

N/A

23.0

23.3

1.1%

184.9%

Normalised net income

7.9

8.1

1.7%

207.1%

15.2

15.4

1.1%

90.6%

Reported net income

3.8

3.9

3.5%

N/A

13.7

13.8

1.2%

255.7%

Normalised basic EPS

0.02

0.02

1.9%

208.8%

0.04

0.04

1.4%

90.7%

Normalised diluted EPS

0.02

0.02

1.9%

208.7%

0.04

0.04

1.4%

90.7%

Reported basic EPS

0.01

0.01

3.8%

N/A

0.03

0.04

1.5%

255.9%

Net debt/(cash)

(22.1)

(21.7)

-1.8%

-42.3%

(45.1)

(44.9)

-0.4%

107.4%

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

30-June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

93.1

117.4

130.2

161.5

234.6

274.8

EBITDA

 

 

(6.8)

(9.2)

(5.0)

3.9

16.9

28.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(11.4)

(16.0)

(5.8)

3.4

16.4

28.1

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

15.6

(10.0)

0.4

(2.4)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(0.0)

(0.1)

(4.8)

(7.1)

(5.4)

(2.0)

Reported operating profit

4.2

(26.1)

(10.1)

(6.1)

11.0

26.1

Net Interest

1.1

(1.7)

(0.9)

(0.3)

(2.8)

(2.8)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(10.3)

(17.7)

(6.6)

3.1

13.6

25.3

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

5.3

(27.8)

(11.0)

(6.4)

8.2

23.3

Reported tax

(0.6)

(0.8)

(0.4)

(1.8)

(1.9)

(5.4)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(10.9)

(18.5)

(7.0)

2.4

10.5

19.5

Profit After Tax (reported)

4.7

(28.6)

(11.4)

(8.2)

6.3

17.9

Minority interests

(8.1)

0.0

0.3

0.2

(2.4)

(4.1)

Discontinued operations

(3.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(18.9)

(18.5)

(6.7)

2.6

8.1

15.4

Net income (reported)

(6.5)

(28.6)

(11.0)

(7.9)

3.9

13.8

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

58

375

375

394

391

391

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

(0.33)

(0.05)

(0.02)

0.01

0.02

0.04

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

(0.33)

(0.05)

(0.02)

0.01

0.02

0.04

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

(0.11)

(0.08)

(0.03)

(0.02)

0.01

0.04

Dividend (€)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

#DIV/0!

26.1

10.9

24.0

45.3

17.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

-7.3

-7.9

-3.8

2.4

7.2

10.4

Normalised Operating Margin

-12.3

-13.7

-4.4

2.1

7.0

10.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

15.7

3.0

2.0

1.3

27.8

27.6

Intangible Assets

12.0

1.5

0.9

0.5

27.1

26.9

Tangible Assets

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

Investments & other

3.1

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

Current Assets

 

 

48.0

25.5

28.1

79.1

85.8

111.5

Stocks

5.9

5.0

3.7

3.7

6.4

7.5

Debtors

4.8

4.7

4.3

4.9

7.7

9.0

Cash & cash equivalents

30.5

11.1

17.1

65.7

66.9

90.1

Other

6.9

4.7

2.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

Current Liabilities

 

 

(32.0)

(25.3)

(28.1)

(37.2)

(43.6)

(49.0)

Creditors

(26.9)

(24.5)

(26.6)

(35.4)

(41.8)

(47.2)

Tax and social security

(0.3)

(0.0)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(1.7)

Short term borrowings

(4.8)

(0.7)

(1.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2.4)

(1.1)

(0.7)

(29.0)

(46.0)

(46.0)

Long term borrowings

(1.8)

(0.6)

0.0

(28.1)

(45.1)

(45.1)

Other long term liabilities

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.7)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Net Assets

 

 

29.3

2.1

1.3

14.2

24.1

44.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(1.8)

(4.2)

(8.2)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

29.3

2.1

1.2

12.5

19.9

35.8

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(6.8)

(9.2)

(5.0)

3.9

16.9

28.5

Working capital

0.4

2.5

6.8

7.9

0.8

3.1

Exceptional & other

(3.8)

(4.3)

(2.2)

(5.2)

0.0

0.0

Tax

0.3

(0.3)

(0.0)

(1.2)

(1.9)

(5.4)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(9.8)

(11.3)

(0.4)

5.5

15.8

26.2

Capex

(4.4)

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Acquisitions/disposals

10.8

(0.4)

3.6

14.2

(9.9)

0.0

Net interest

(0.9)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.3)

(2.8)

(2.8)

Equity financing

33.2

(5.1)

1.9

2.0

(1.8)

0.0

Dividends

0.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.1

0.1

0.1

(1.1)

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

29.0

(15.7)

5.0

20.1

1.153

23.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

18.0

(23.9)

(9.8)

(16.0)

(37.5)

(21.7)

FX

0.1

(0.1)

(0.6)

0.4

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

12.6

1.7

1.8

1.1

(17.0)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(23.9)

(9.8)

(16.0)

(37.5)

(21.7)

(44.9)

Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Claranova and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Claranova and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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