Strong finish to the year

XP Power 12 January 2021 Update
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XP Power

Strong finish to the year

FY20 trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

12 January 2021

Price

5,100p

Market cap

£991m

$1.35:£1

Net debt (£m) at end FY20

18.0

Shares in issue

19.4m

Free float

90%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

18.1

8.5

58.9

Rel (local)

13.2

(4.5)

74.2

52-week high/low

5,100p

2,130p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions with production facilities in China, Vietnam and the US, and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the US and Asia.

Next events

FY20 results

2 March

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

XP reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 revenues up 24% y-o-y and 4% ahead of our forecast, driving FY20 profitability ahead of expectations. Order intake has normalised to pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting continued strong demand from the semiconductor sector. We have revised our estimates to reflect strong Q420 performance and the weaker dollar, driving a 3.0% increase in FY20 EPS and a 2.3% cut to our FY21 EPS.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

195.1

41.2

172.8

85.0

29.5

1.7

12/19

199.9

33.2

145.5

55.0

35.1

1.1

12/20e

232.9

41.9

167.9

72.0

30.4

1.4

12/21e

227.4

42.2

169.2

92.0

30.1

1.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q420 revenue ahead; bookings in line

XP reported revenue of £58.8m for Q420 (+25% y-o-y, +26% constant currency, cc) and £232.9m for FY20 (+16% y-o-y), 1% ahead of our £230.7m forecast. Order intake was £55.9m for Q420 (-4% y-o-y, -2% cc) and £258.0m for FY20 (+20% y-o-y), in line with our forecast. Book-to-bill was 0.95x for Q420 and 1.11x for FY20. XP anticipates FY20 profits will be ahead of expectations due to strong healthcare demand driving efficiency gains and higher gross margins. Net debt at the end FY20 of £18.0m was substantially lower than our £38.2m forecast, mainly due to good working capital management, but aided by the weaker dollar at year-end. The company expects to propose a final dividend of at least 34p when it reports results on 2 March, ahead of our 30p forecast.

Forecast revisions reflect stronger demand and FX

Q4 order intake was strong, helped by demand from semiconductor equipment companies and XP expects further underlying (ie constant currency) revenue growth in FY21. We have revised our FY20 forecasts to reflect stronger revenues and higher than expected cash generation in Q420, lifting normalised diluted EPS by 3.0%. For FY21, while we have increased our cc revenue growth rate from 2.9% to 3.8%, a revision to our FY21 $/£ exchange rate forecast from 1.30 to 1.36, reflecting the weakening of the dollar over Q420, results in a 2.8% cut to our FY21 revenue forecast and a 2.3% cut in normalised diluted EPS. Our end FY21 net debt forecast reduces from £27.2m to £13.7m. We have raised our dividend forecasts for both years: FY20e from 68p to 72p, FY21e from 87p to 92p.

Valuation: Reflects robust performance

On a P/E basis, XP is trading at a premium to global power converter companies and UK electronics companies for FY20 and FY21. In our view, this reflects XP’s strong performance over a difficult year and EBIT margins ahead of both peer groups. While there remains uncertainty over demand in this period of disruption, we highlight XP’s strong backlog and balance sheet.

Changes to forecasts

We have made the following changes to forecasts:

■

Revenue: we have increased our dollar-based revenue growth forecast for FY21 from 2.9% to 3.8%, reflecting continued strong demand in Q420. We have revised our $/£ assumption for FY21 from 1.30 to 1.36 reflecting the recent weakening of the dollar versus sterling. Combined, this results in a 2.8% reduction in FY21 revenues.

■

Gross margin: we have increased this for H220 and FY21 to reflect better performance in H220.

■

Net interest cost: we have reduced this by £0.5m in FY21 to reflect the lower level of debt.

■

Net debt: we have reduced accounts receivable and inventory to reflect better collections and the weaker dollar at year-end. We have also factored in the exchange rate in the translation of the dollar-denominated debt.

■

Dividend: reflecting the higher-than-expected final dividend expected for FY20, we have increased our dividend forecasts for both years.

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY20e

FY21e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

230.7

232.9

0.9%

16.5%

233.8

227.4

(2.8%)

(2.3%)

Gross profit

103.9

107.3

3.3%

19.1%

106.0

104.3

(1.6%)

(2.8%)

Gross margin

45.0%

46.1%

1.1%

1.0%

45.3%

45.9%

0.5%

(0.2%)

EBITDA

54.0

55.3

2.3%

21.7%

57.0

55.5

(2.6%)

0.5%

EBITDA margin

23.4%

23.7%

0.3%

1.0%

24.4%

24.4%

0.0%

0.7%

Normalised operating profit

42.6

43.9

2.9%

22.2%

45.2

43.7

(3.3%)

(0.3%)

Normalised operating margin

18.5%

18.8%

0.4%

0.9%

19.3%

19.2%

(0.1%)

0.4%

Reported operating profit

31.8

33.1

3.9%

23.8%

42.0

40.5

(3.5%)

22.6%

Reported operating margin

13.8%

14.2%

0.4%

0.8%

18.0%

17.8%

(0.1%)

3.6%

Normalised PBT

40.6

41.9

3.0%

26.1%

43.2

42.2

(2.3%)

0.9%

Reported PBT

29.8

31.1

4.1%

29.4%

40.0

39.0

(2.4%)

25.6%

Normalised net income

32.3

33.2

3.0%

17.1%

34.3

33.5

(2.3%)

0.8%

Reported net income

23.6

24.6

4.2%

20.0%

31.7

31.0

(2.5%)

25.9%

Normalised basic EPS (p)

166.0

171.1

3.0%

15.4%

176.5

172.4

(2.3%)

0.8%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

162.9

167.9

3.0%

15.4%

173.2

169.2

(2.3%)

0.8%

Reported basic EPS (p)

121.5

126.6

4.2%

18.3%

163.3

159.3

(2.5%)

25.9%

Dividend per share (p)

68.0

72.0

5.9%

30.9%

87.0

92.0

5.7%

27.8%

Net debt/(cash)

38.2

18.0

(52.9%)

(56.4%)

27.2

13.7

(49.6%)

(23.7%)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

109.7

129.8

166.8

195.1

199.9

232.9

227.4

Cost of Sales

(55.1)

(67.8)

(89.2)

(102.8)

(109.8)

(125.5)

(123.1)

Gross Profit

54.6

62.0

77.6

92.3

90.1

107.3

104.3

EBITDA

 

 

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

55.3

55.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

28.8

36.4

42.9

35.9

43.9

43.7

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

(0.4)

(0.6)

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Exceptionals

(0.3)

(0.4)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(6.0)

(7.6)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

25.6

28.0

32.5

39.3

26.7

33.1

40.5

Net Interest

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(1.5)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

25.7

28.6

36.1

41.2

33.2

41.9

42.2

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

25.4

27.8

32.2

37.6

24.0

31.1

39.0

Reported tax

(5.5)

(6.3)

(3.6)

(7.2)

(3.2)

(6.2)

(7.8)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.2

22.3

28.8

33.9

28.7

33.5

33.8

Profit After Tax (reported)

19.9

21.5

28.6

30.4

20.8

24.8

31.2

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

20.0

22.1

28.5

33.7

28.4

33.2

33.5

Net income (reported)

19.7

21.3

28.3

30.2

20.5

24.6

31.0

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.1

19.2

19.4

19.4

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

105.3

116.2

149.4

176.1

148.3

171.1

172.4

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

104.3

115.3

147.0

172.8

145.5

167.9

169.2

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

103.7

112.0

148.3

157.8

107.0

126.6

159.3

Dividend (p)

66

71

78

85

55

72

92

Revenue growth (%)

8.5

18.3

28.5

17.0

2.5

16.5

(-2.3)

Gross Margin (%)

49.8

47.8

46.5

47.3

45.1

46.1

45.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

27.0

25.4

25.0

25.2

22.7

23.7

24.4

Normalised Operating Margin

23.6

22.2

21.8

22.0

18.0

18.8

19.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

65.4

73.2

88.1

129.2

137.4

141.1

142.6

Intangible Assets

48.2

53.0

63.9

97.7

99.6

102.7

103.3

Tangible Assets

16.1

19.1

22.5

30.7

35.9

36.5

37.4

Investments & other

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

Current Assets

 

 

53.5

65.7

83.5

105.1

96.0

109.9

111.9

Stocks

28.7

32.2

37.8

56.5

44.1

45.7

44.9

Debtors

17.5

21.5

23.8

33.0

34.8

33.8

37.4

Cash & cash equivalents

4.9

9.2

15.0

11.5

11.2

24.5

23.8

Other

2.4

2.8

6.9

4.1

5.9

5.9

5.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19.8)

(25.8)

(25.1)

(26.8)

(30.4)

(36.8)

(33.5)

Creditors

(14.6)

(16.1)

(21.4)

(22.4)

(25.2)

(31.6)

(28.3)

Tax and social security

(1.2)

(3.3)

(3.5)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.1)

Short term borrowings

(4.0)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

Other

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.0)

(6.2)

(29.6)

(70.1)

(64.1)

(52.6)

(46.1)

Long term borrowings

(4.6)

0.0

(24.0)

(63.5)

(57.3)

(45.8)

(39.3)

Other long term liabilities

(5.4)

(6.2)

(5.6)

(6.6)

(6.8)

(6.8)

(6.8)

Net Assets

 

 

89.1

106.9

116.9

137.4

138.9

161.6

174.9

Minority interests

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

88.3

106.1

116.0

136.4

138.2

160.8

174.1

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

55.3

55.5

Working capital

(4.6)

(6.1)

0.4

(21.6)

10.6

5.8

(6.1)

Exceptional & other

0.6

5.1

(6.3)

3.2

(5.3)

(6.4)

0.0

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.1)

(4.1)

(4.5)

(6.2)

(7.8)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

21.0

27.9

29.7

26.7

46.2

48.4

41.7

Capex

(5.4)

(6.8)

(10.1)

(15.0)

(16.3)

(19.5)

(16.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8.3)

0.1

(18.3)

(35.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(1.5)

Equity financing

0.0

0.2

(0.2)

0.6

0.5

(0.6)

0.0

Dividends

(12.2)

(13.1)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(17.2)

(7.5)

(17.9)

Other

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Net Cash Flow

(4.8)

8.1

(13.3)

(40.2)

9.0

17.3

4.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

18.0

FX

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.6

(2.7)

1.7

6.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

18.0

13.7

Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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United Kingdom

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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