Stretch targets exceeded

YouGov 21 October 2019 Update
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YouGov

Stretch targets exceeded

Full-year results

Media

21 October 2019

Price

536p

Market cap

£566m

£1:$1.23

Net cash (£m) at 31 July 2019

37.9

Shares in issue

105.6m

Free float

62.3%

Code

YOU

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.7)

(0.7)

23.2

Rel (local)

0.0

2.6

20.4

52-week high/low

596.0p

382.5p

Business description

YouGov is a global research data and analytics group, with over eight million online panellists across 42 countries. It offers a complementary data-led suite of products and services including YouGov BrandIndex, YouGov Profiles, YouGov Omnibus and custom research.

Next events

Pre-close update

January 20

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

YouGov’s final results to end July showed strong revenue growth (+10% underlying) and a 200bp increase in operating margins. The continuing drive is on growing Data Products and Services and focusing Custom Research on more profitable business. The ambitious targets to improve profitability set in the original five-year plan have been met. The new five-year plan to FY23 targets doubling both revenue and adjusted operating profit margin, as well as achieving a 30% CAGR in EPS (25% EPS CAGR in the earlier plan). In this context, the valuation premium to slower-growing peers looks well underpinned.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/EBITDA (x)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

07/18**

116.6

16.4

10.8

3.0

25.6

49.7

0.6

07/19

136.5

20.5

13.9

4.0

17.7

38.6

0.7

07/20e

152.1

26.5

17.8

5.0

14.7

30.2

0.9

07/21e

163.7

33.6

22.1

6.3

11.9

24.3

1.2

Notes: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items; **FY18 restated for change in treatment of amortisation and share-based payments.

Data Products lead the way

Like-for-like revenue growth in Data Products and Services of 18% was diluted by 1% growth in Custom Research, but the latter was deliberately constrained by cutting less profitable business from the mix. Data Products (30% group revenue) was up by 25% underlying, with adjusted operating margin climbing from 31% to 34%. YouGov Plan & Track, which integrates BrandIndex and Profiles, is gaining good traction with agencies and brand owners. Data Services like-for-like revenue (27% group) grew 11%, with the US building fast. Margins were diluted from 21% to 20% by including some custom research business re-categorised from the Nordics. The Custom Research segment lifted adjusted operating margin from 20% to 22%.

Five-year growth plan: More of the same but better

The growth plan is predominantly predicated on organic progress, adding new products, enhancing the technologies, adding new countries and new verticals, and improving the sales and marketing function. YouGov is looking to break down internal silos, adding key account management teams, to grow the client base and to cross- and up-sell additional business lines into existing clients. Smaller acquisitions that can accelerate progress on any of these fronts are likely, given the group’s net cash (£37.9m at end July and high levels of operating cash conversation – 124% of adjusted EBITDA in the year just reported). We have updated our FY20 forecasts on these results and introduced FY21 numbers.

Valuation: Reflects ambitious objectives

YouGov’s share price has performed strongly, up by 37% since the start of the year (although 10% off its August peak), giving a 10-year CAGR of 27%. Earnings multiples are at the top end of the range of global peers, although it can be argued that none are directly comparable. On a reverse DCF basis, at our FY21e projected EBITDA margin of 26% (which should prove conservative given the ambitions in the five-year plan), the current share price implies top-line growth of 5.6% in FY22–27, well below the level needed to meet the new growth target.

Clarifying financials

Presentational adjustments

The group has changed the presentation of its financials, as indicated earlier. The changes to adjusted measures mean they now include amortisation of intangible assets charged to operating expenses. This principally relates to the amortisation of panel acquisition costs and internally developed software and software development. Company-adjusted measures are also presented after charging share-based payments. We have altered our presentation to match that of the company to ease comparison. In Exhibit 1, below, ‘Old’ refers to our previously published estimates adjusting for amortisation and share-based payments.

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

Adj EPS (p)

Adj PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2019

16.2

13.9

-14

27.2

20.5

-25

26.2

28.6

+9

2020e

18.6

17.8

-4

30.5

26.5

-13

30.1

35.4

+18

2021e

-

22.1

N/A

-

33.6

N/A

-

42.5

N/A

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

FY19 EBITDA came in 9% ahead of our earlier forecast, with revenue broadly in line. The company’s pre-close trading update indicated the results were to be ‘comfortably ahead’ of then current market forecasts but we did not move our projections at that stage. At the adjusted PBT level, our forecasts now exclude amortisation of £8.8m.

Our FY20 forecasts are based against this higher comparative and we now publish our FY21 estimates, which show continuing top-line growth and margin expansion.

Vesting conditions of new long-term incentive plan

The conditions for the new long-term incentive plan are based on the FY19 base, so over four years, whereas the new corporate five-year growth plan (ending FY23) is based on the FY18 reported figures. The level of awards that can be made ratchet according to growth in adjusted EPS (excluding exceptional and non-recurring items). The threshold for any to be granted is a 10% CAGR over the four years, at which point 10% vest. Over 15% CAGR, this moves up to 25%, with full vesting only occurring if the CAGR over the period exceeds 35%.

Our modelling for FY20e and FY21e is for adjusted EPS CAGR of 26%.

Powering the next stage

Improving coherence

Our last report, published in June, went through the business model and expansion strategy in some depth.

The results presentation focused on delivering a more coherent programme to drive the group towards its aim of being ‘the world’s leading provider of marketing and opinion data’. This does not involve any major adjustments to the overarching strategy, rather a case of doing the same but more and better.

A key part of this is to bring the elements of the group’s commercial and public offerings together on a universal platform that can combine the various websites, apps, interfaces and dashboards. As well as providing greater clarity for the users, there are practical benefits on the back end, allowing greater integration of the data and opening up potential new revenue streams. The proprietary data storage and analytics system, Crunch, is under continual development, currently focused on delivering 3D capability, ie as a time series.

The group is also bringing greater coherence to its sales and marketing efforts, establishing key account management teams. Overall the group has around 3,000 clients but has historically been better at selling them specific products or services than partnering with them to solve problems that could involve a range of solutions. Changes to the internal structures away from P&Ls within teams and segments should help to make better use of cross- and up-selling opportunities.

Big game trackers

The number of multi-year and multi-territory subscription studies is steadily building (partly visible in the 16% increase in the deferred income figure of £14.5m in FY19 from £12.5m the prior year). Winning global tracker studies is a key aim. Developments in upgrading Crunch will be instrumental in driving success here and attracting global companies away from traditional providers such as Nielsen, GFK and Kantar. Having key account managers, as described above, will also make the group look and feel more like global provider from the perspective of the potential clients.

YouGov Direct a possible game-changer

GDPR has challenged the marketing industry in a lot of its assumptions and methodologies and the full impact is not yet being felt. One of YouGov’s key differentiators is its extensive and engaged panel, which, amongst the other benefits of cost and timeliness, allows for far more efficient re-contact studies. As part of the sign-up process, panellists give explicit consent for the way their data can be used.

YouGov Direct takes this one step further, with panellists making their opinion and behavioural data available for research in a marketing context (extending as far as monitoring bank account activity for those happy to do this). Permissioning is accounted for through an encrypted blockchain. Brand owners and agencies can message panellists directly, with initial trials (with the likes of an ad platform, a newspaper brand, an agency and a TV broadcaster) proving ‘highly successful’.

There is considerable potential for this approach to be incorporated within a digital advertising environment; improving targeting and therefore the ROI of marketing spend.

Cash to invest

The proposed dividend of 4p is up one-third on prior year. Conversion of adjusted EBITDA to cash of 124% continues a long-established trend, allowing plenty of scope for investment and acquisitions. The group ended the year with net cash of £37.9m and has no debt. Outstanding contingent consideration is in the balance sheet at £10m (£2.8m short term), with the absolute maximum payable being £41.2m.

We would expect to see continuing growth in the dividend and have assumed capex of £10m in each of our forecast years, a little down from the £12.2m spent in FY19. Factoring this in, we project a year-end net cash figure of £46.6m for July 2020, rising to £58.5m the following year. Acquisitions are likely to be bolt-on rather than substantial.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 July

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

107,048

116,559

136,487

152,076

163,678

Cost of Sales

(21,339)

(21,495)

(24,206)

(26,461)

(27,692)

Gross Profit

85,709

95,064

112,281

125,615

135,986

EBITDA

 

 

15,702

20,907

28,578

35,405

42,505

Operating Profit (before amort., except.)

 

 

14,528

12,650

18,288

25,021

32,121

Intangible Amortisation

(6,483)

(7,026)

(8,809)

(8,809)

(8,809)

Share based payments

(1,508)

(3,571)

(2,401)

(1,250)

(1,250)

Exceptionals

(488)

(826)

1,529

0

0

Other

103

204

200

0

0

Operating Profit

6,152

12,028

20,017

25,021

32,121

Net Interest

254

(51)

(361)

186

238

Profit Before Tax (adj)

 

 

16,393

16,374

20,528

26,457

33,609

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

6,406

11,773

19,456

25,207

32,359

Tax

(3,273)

(3,615)

(5,085)

(6,530)

(8,358)

Profit After Tax (norm)

13,120

12,759

15,443

19,927

25,251

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,133

8,158

14,371

17,427

22,751

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

104.8

105.4

105.4

105.6

105.6

EPS - normalised, fully diluted (p)

 

 

7.8

10.8

13.9

17.8

22.1

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

3.0

7.7

14.2

16.5

21.5

Dividend per share (p)

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.3

Gross Margin (%)

80.1

81.6

82.3

82.6

83.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.7

17.9

20.9

23.3

26.0

Operating Margin (before GW and except & share-based payments) (%)

12.2

7.8

11.6

15.6

18.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

64,637

78,019

98,006

98,197

98,388

Intangible Assets

54,960

65,357

82,374

82,565

82,756

Tangible Assets

9,332

12,471

15,632

15,632

15,632

Investments

345

191

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

54,918

66,735

72,581

92,810

108,098

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

30,699

34,672

33,726

45,237

48,688

Cash

23,481

30,621

37,925

46,643

58,480

Current Liabilities

 

 

(34,177)

(41,445)

(48,503)

(50,285)

(53,689)

Creditors

(33,915)

(41,445)

(48,503)

(50,285)

(53,689)

Short term borrowings

(262)

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(4,905)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(4,905)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

(11,238)

Net Assets

 

 

80,473

92,071

110,846

129,484

141,559

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

18,914

23,617

35,230

35,405

42,256

Net Interest

4

22

183

186

238

Tax

(2,487)

(5,501)

(4,520)

(3,873)

(5,871)

Capex

(7,661)

(8,181)

(12,166)

(10,000)

(10,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(885)

(6,583)

(7,000)

(8,600)

Financing

175

259

(3,652)

(1,500)

0

Dividends

(1,470)

(2,106)

(3,327)

(4,499)

(6,204)

Net Cash Flow

7,475

7,225

5,165

8,719

11,820

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(15,553)

(23,219)

(30,621)

(37,925)

(46,644)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

191

177

2,138

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(23,219)

(30,621)

(37,925)

(46,644)

(58,464)

Source: YouGov, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by YouGov. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by YouGov and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by YouGov. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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