Games Workshop Group — Rounding off a stellar year

Games Workshop Group (LSE: GAW)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

GBP98.60

−110.00 (−1.10%)

Market capitalisation

GBP3,286m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Games Workshop Group — Rounding off a stellar year

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) year-end trading update highlights higher revenue and a more significant increase in operating profit and licensing income, versus our expectations. FY21 has been very strong despite COVID-19 restrictions on retail, likely incremental costs due to Brexit and recent currency headwinds. Management’s new estimates for FY21 imply year-on-year growth for revenue and PBT of at least c 30% and c 68% respectively and limited underlying cost growth of c 4%. The strong performance has led to higher year-on-year rewards for staff (profit-related pay increased fivefold) and shareholders (total dividend of 235p versus 145p). We increase our forecasts for FY21 to be consistent with the new estimates and make a modest upgrade to FY22. Our DCF-based valuation increases to 12,000p.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Consumer

Games Workshop

Rounding off a stellar year

FY21 trading update

Consumer goods

20 May 2021

Price

11,190p

Market cap

£3,667m

Net cash (£m) at 30 November 2020 (excluding lease liabilities)

96.5

Shares in issue

32.7m

Free float

97%

Code

GAW

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.6

11.4

77.9

Rel (local)

3.4

5.9

48.1

52-week high/low

11,730p

6,420p

Business description

Games Workshop is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.

Next events

FY21 results

27 July 2021

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Games Workshop is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) year-end trading update highlights higher revenue and a more significant increase in operating profit and licensing income, versus our expectations. FY21 has been very strong despite COVID-19 restrictions on retail, likely incremental costs due to Brexit and recent currency headwinds. Management’s new estimates for FY21 imply year-on-year growth for revenue and PBT of at least c 30% and c 68% respectively and limited underlying cost growth of c 4%. The strong performance has led to higher year-on-year rewards for staff (profit-related pay increased fivefold) and shareholders (total dividend of 235p versus 145p). We increase our forecasts for FY21 to be consistent with the new estimates and make a modest upgrade to FY22. Our DCF-based valuation increases to 12,000p.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

05/19

256.6

81.3

200.8

155.0

55.7

1.4

05/20

269.7

89.4

217.8

145.0

51.4

1.3

05/21e

350.5

152.1

367.6

235.0

30.4

2.1

05/22e

375.5

158.1

380.9

250.0

29.4

2.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY21: Higher profitability than expected

Management’s new estimates for FY21 of sales not less than £350m and PBT not less than £150m indicate a better profit performance than our prior forecasts of £349.1m and £140.4m respectively. With marginally lower licensing income year-on-year of £15m (FY20 £16.8m) ahead of our estimate of £13m, the profit performance is even more impressive as operating costs include an incremental £10m profit share versus FY20 to reward staff for an exceptional year. Using the low end of management’s estimates for the year versus FY20, GAW generated incremental revenue of at least c £80m on a total cost (COGS and operating costs) increase of c £18m, including the above-bonus increase, or c 4% excluding the bonus increase. The operating margin pre-royalties of at least 38.8% compares with FY20’s 27.1%, implying an H221 margin of at least 32.1% (H121 44.6%), highlighting the influence of major product launches on margin as per our recent note. The further dividend of 50p takes the cumulative total for the year to 235p.

Forecasts: FY21 and FY22 upgraded

We increase our FY21 forecasts to be consistent with management’s new estimates. Our FY22 PBT forecast increases by c 1% to £158.1m, reflecting more forex headwinds for revenue, a lower year-on-year gross margin given the success of the major launch in FY21 and lower growth in operating expenses.

Valuation: DCF valuation increased to 12,000p

Our DCF-based valuation increases 3% to 12,000p from 11,613p. The 29.4x FY22 P/E is at a premium to recent previous peak multiples in non-COVID-19-affected years, which reflects GAW’s higher profitability.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Year-end May

£'m

 

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

 

 

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

119.1

118.1

158.1

221.3

256.6

269.7

350.5

375.5

Cost of sales

 

 

(37.0)

(37.4)

(43.7)

(64.2)

(83.3)

(89.1)

(94.6)

(112.6)

Gross profit

 

 

82.1

80.6

114.4

157.1

173.3

180.6

255.9

262.8

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(67.2)

(69.7)

(83.6)

(92.4)

(103.4)

(107.4)

(118.0)

(121.0)

Other operating income/(expense)

 

 

1.5

5.9

7.5

9.6

11.4

16.8

15.0

17.0

EBITDA (excl royalties)

 

 

26.0

21.3

41.8

76.8

85.7

98.8

164.9

170.1

EBITDA

 

 

27.5

27.3

49.3

86.5

97.1

115.6

179.9

187.1

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(11.1)

(10.4)

(11.0)

(12.1)

(15.9)

(25.6)

(27.1)

(28.2)

Operating profit (before royalties and exceptionals)

 

14.9

10.9

30.8

64.7

69.8

73.2

137.9

141.8

Reported operating profit

 

 

16.5

16.9

38.3

74.3

81.2

90.0

152.9

158.8

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

(0.0)

0.1

(0.6)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Reported PBT

 

 

16.6

16.9

38.4

74.3

81.3

89.4

152.1

158.1

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(4.3)

(3.5)

(7.9)

(14.8)

(15.5)

(18.1)

(30.7)

(31.9)

Adjusted net income

 

 

12.2

13.5

30.5

59.5

65.8

71.3

121.4

126.2

Reported net income

 

 

12.3

13.5

30.5

59.5

65.8

71.3

121.4

126.2

WASC (m)

 

 

31.975

32.093

32.126

32.258

32.438

32.602

32.724

32.822

Diluted average number of shares (m)

 

 

32.025

32.150

32.325

32.732

32.785

32.736

33.021

33.119

Reported EPS (p)

 

 

38.3

42.1

95.1

184.3

202.9

218.7

370.9

384.4

Reported diluted EPS (p)

 

 

38.3

42.0

94.5

181.6

200.8

217.8

367.6

380.9

Adjusted diluted EPS (p)

 

 

38.1

42.0

94.5

181.6

200.8

217.8

367.6

380.9

DPS (p)

 

 

52.0

40.0

74.0

126.0

155.0

145.0

235.0

250.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin

 

 

69.0%

68.3%

72.4%

71.0%

67.5%

67.0%

73.0%

70.0%

EBITDA margin (excl royalties)

 

 

21.8%

18.1%

26.5%

34.7%

33.4%

36.6%

47.1%

45.3%

EBITDA margin (incl royalties)

 

 

23.1%

23.1%

31.2%

39.1%

37.8%

42.9%

51.3%

49.8%

Operating margin (before royalties and exceptionals)

 

 

12.5%

9.2%

19.5%

29.2%

27.2%

27.1%

39.3%

37.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

22.7

22.6

22.1

30.1

35.3

42.0

53.4

59.8

Right-of-use assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31.9

40.2

39.4

Goodwill

 

 

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Intangible assets

 

 

8.3

10.5

12.9

14.2

16.0

17.6

20.7

23.4

Other non-current assets

 

 

4.8

4.1

6.5

7.8

11.7

16.4

16.4

16.4

Total non-current assets

 

 

37.2

38.7

43.0

53.5

64.4

109.3

132.1

140.4

Cash and equivalents

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

66.1

98.3

Inventories

 

 

7.6

8.5

12.4

20.2

24.2

20.7

22.0

26.2

Trade and other receivables

 

 

9.4

10.1

13.0

15.5

18.8

19.6

25.5

27.3

Other current assets

 

 

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.8

0.2

0.2

0.2

Total current assets

 

 

30.2

31.2

43.9

64.7

73.2

93.4

113.8

152.0

Trade and other payables

 

 

(13.1)

(12.8)

(16.5)

(20.3)

(19.2)

(30.3)

(20.0)

(22.5)

Borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(8.3)

(8.3)

(8.3)

Other current liabilities

 

 

(2.0)

(2.7)

(6.5)

(7.3)

(10.1)

(4.5)

(4.5)

(4.5)

Total current liabilities

 

 

(15.1)

(15.6)

(23.0)

(27.6)

(29.3)

(43.1)

(32.8)

(35.3)

Borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(23.8)

(32.3)

(31.7)

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

(0.8)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.9)

(2.1)

(2.1)

(2.1)

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

(0.8)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.9)

(25.9)

(34.4)

(33.8)

Net assets

 

 

51.5

53.2

62.8

89.3

106.5

133.7

178.7

223.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

 

16.5

16.9

38.3

74.3

81.2

90.0

152.9

158.8

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

11.1

10.4

10.2

12.2

15.9

25.0

27.1

28.2

Impairments

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.8

(0.0)

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

 

 

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.5

Other adjustments

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

Movements in working capital

 

 

(2.3)

(0.8)

(0.2)

(4.4)

(9.0)

10.8

(17.5)

(3.5)

Income taxes paid

 

 

(2.3)

(2.6)

(5.5)

(12.2)

(16.3)

(22.7)

(30.7)

(31.9)

Operating cash flow

 

 

23.3

24.2

43.9

70.1

72.5

104.5

132.2

152.1

Net capex and intangibles

 

 

(12.3)

(12.7)

(12.8)

(21.6)

(22.5)

(24.6)

(30.8)

(26.6)

Net interest

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

(0.7)

(0.7)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.0

0.0

Dividends paid

 

 

(16.6)

(12.8)

(23.8)

(38.7)

(50.3)

(47.3)

(76.9)

(82.1)

Other financing activities

 

 

0.0

0.0

(1.9)

0.0

0.0

(10.3)

(10.6)

(10.6)

Net cash flow

 

 

(4.8)

(0.9)

5.5

10.7

0.5

23.2

13.2

32.2

Opening cash and cash equivalents

 

 

17.6

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

66.1

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

(0.2)

0.1

0.6

(0.1)

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

Closing cash and cash equivalents

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

66.1

98.3

Closing net cash (including leases)

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

20.8

25.5

58.3

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Games Workshop and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Games Workshop. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Games Workshop and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Games Workshop. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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