Record orders in FY21

XP Power 11 January 2022 Update
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XP Power

Record orders in FY21

Trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

11 January 2022

Price

4,800p

Market cap

£943m

$1.36/£

Net debt (£m) at end FY21

24.7

Shares in issue

19.6m

Free float

90%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

3.0

5.1

8.1

Rel (local)

(2.3)

(1.5)

(5.8)

52-week high/low

5,700p

4,630p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions, with production facilities in China, Vietnam and the United States and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the United States and Asia.

Next events

FY21 results

1 March

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Well-flagged supply chain issues in Q421 held back revenue despite continued strong order intake. We have trimmed our FY21 forecasts to reflect this (EPS down 2.9%) but note that stronger than expected order intake increases confidence in our unchanged FY22 forecasts.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

199.9

32.3

141.4

55.0

34.0

1.1

12/20

233.3

44.3

198.4

74.0

24.2

1.5

12/21e

240.2

43.5

179.0

95.0

26.8

2.0

12/22e

257.1

49.3

203.7

98.0

23.6

2.0

Note: *PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Supply chain issues weigh on Q421 revenue

XP Power reported Q421 revenue of £58.8m (-1% y-o-y, +4% in constant currency, -5% q-o-q). Previously flagged supply chain issues (production constraints, reduced freight capacity) meant that the company was not able to ship as much product as initially expected, resulting in FY21 revenue of £240.2m (+3% y-o-y, +10% constant currency), below our £243.7m forecast. While a large proportion of FY20 revenue growth of 17% was due to high demand for COVID-19 related healthcare equipment, FY21 constant currency growth of 10% was predominantly driven by semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Lower Q421 revenues flow through to adjusted operating profit, which is expected to be modestly below the current consensus range of £46–48m. We understand that production constraints have since lifted and output is back to normal levels. XP closed the year with net debt of £24.7m (vs our £24.0m forecast) and expects to announce a final dividend of at least 36p per share for a full year dividend of at least 94p (vs our 95p forecast).

Order intake remains strong

While supply chain issues weighed on the production and shipment of product, order intake across all end markets remained strong with orders worth £88.6m received in Q421 (+58% y-o-y, +65% constant currency, -9% q-o-q), resulting in FY21 orders totalling £343.4m, up 33% y-o-y or 43% at constant currency and ahead of our £327.7m forecast. XP closed the year with a record order backlog (we estimate up more than 70% y-o-y), providing good visibility for FY22 revenue. Consistently strong order intake provides evidence of demand across all end markets and should support sustained revenue growth in the short to medium term. We have revised our forecasts to reflect Q421 performance, reducing FY21e normalised diluted EPS by 2.9%. We maintain our FY22 revenue and EPS forecasts and increase our bookings forecast by 14%.

Valuation: Reflects superior profitability

On an FY21e P/E basis, XP is trading at a 12% premium to global power-converter companies and in line with UK electronics companies, with a dividend yield at the upper end of the range. The company generates EBITDA and EBIT margins at the top end of both peer groups.

Changes to forecasts

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY21e

FY21e

Change

y-o-y

FY22e

FY22e

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Old

New

Revenues

243.7

240.2

(1.4%)

3.0%

257.1

257.1

0.0%

7.0%

Gross profit

112.6

111.0

(1.4%)

0.8%

120.2

120.2

(0.0%)

8.3%

Gross margin

46.2%

46.2%

(0.0%)

(1.0%)

46.7%

46.7%

(0.0%)

0.5%

EBITDA

57.9

56.6

(2.2%)

(0.3%)

62.8

62.8

(0.0%)

10.8%

EBITDA margin

23.8%

23.6%

(0.2%)

(0.8%)

24.4%

24.4%

(0.0%)

0.8%

Normalised operating profit

46.3

45.0

(2.8%)

(2.1%)

50.6

50.6

(0.0%)

12.3%

Normalised operating margin

19.0%

18.7%

(0.3%)

(1.0%)

19.7%

19.7%

(0.0%)

0.9%

Reported operating profit

36.6

35.3

(3.5%)

(5.5%)

47.4

47.4

(0.0%)

34.1%

Reported operating margin

15.0%

14.7%

(0.3%)

(1.3%)

18.4%

18.4%

(0.0%)

3.7%

Normalised PBT

44.8

43.5

(2.9%)

(1.7%)

49.3

49.3

(0.0%)

13.2%

Reported PBT

35.1

33.8

(3.7%)

(5.2%)

46.1

46.1

(0.0%)

36.2%

Normalised net income

36.8

35.7

(2.9%)

(8.4%)

40.7

40.7

(0.0%)

13.8%

Reported net income

28.9

27.8

(3.7%)

(11.7%)

38.0

38.0

(0.0%)

36.5%

Normalised basic EPS (p)

187.4

182.0

(2.9%)

(9.8%)

207.1

207.1

(0.0%)

13.8%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

184.4

179.0

(2.9%)

(9.8%)

203.7

203.7

(0.0%)

13.8%

Reported basic EPS (p)

147.2

141.7

(3.7%)

(13.1%)

193.5

193.5

(0.0%)

36.5%

Dividend per share (p)

95.0

95.0

0.0%

28.4%

98.0

98.0

0.0%

3.2%

Net debt/(cash)

24.0

24.7

2.6%

37.7%

12.1

13.4

10.3%

(45.8%)

Orders

327.7

343.4

4.8%

33.1%

282.3

322.6

14.3%

(6.1%)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

109.7

129.8

166.8

195.1

199.9

233.3

240.2

257.1

Cost of Sales

(55.1)

(67.8)

(89.2)

(102.8)

(109.8)

(123.2)

(129.3)

(137.0)

Gross Profit

54.6

62.0

77.6

92.3

90.1

110.1

111.0

120.2

EBITDA

 

 

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

44.5

56.8

56.6

62.8

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

28.8

36.4

42.9

35.0

46.0

45.0

50.6

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

(0.4)

(0.6)

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Exceptionals

(0.3)

(0.4)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(5.1)

(5.4)

(6.5)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

25.6

28.0

32.5

39.3

26.7

37.4

35.3

47.4

Net Interest

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(2.7)

(1.7)

(1.5)

(1.3)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

25.7

28.6

36.1

41.2

32.3

44.3

43.5

49.3

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

25.4

27.8

32.2

37.6

24.0

35.7

33.8

46.1

Reported tax

(5.5)

(6.3)

(3.6)

(7.2)

(3.2)

(4.0)

(5.8)

(7.8)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.2

22.3

28.8

33.9

27.9

39.2

36.0

40.9

Profit After Tax (reported)

19.9

21.5

28.6

30.4

20.8

31.7

28.1

38.2

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

20.0

22.1

28.5

33.7

27.6

39.0

35.7

40.7

Net income (reported)

19.7

21.3

28.3

30.2

20.5

31.5

27.8

38.0

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.1

19.2

19.3

19.6

19.6

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

105.3

116.2

149.4

176.1

144.1

201.8

182.0

207.1

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

104.3

115.3

147.0

172.8

141.4

198.4

179.0

203.7

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

103.7

112.0

148.3

157.8

107.0

163.0

141.7

193.5

Dividend (p)

66

71

78

85

55

74

95

98

Revenue growth (%)

8.5

18.3

28.5

17.0

2.5

16.7

3.0

7.0

Gross Margin (%)

49.8

47.8

46.5

47.3

45.1

47.2

46.2

46.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

27.0

25.4

25.0

25.2

22.3

24.3

23.6

24.4

Normalised Operating Margin

23.6

22.2

21.8

22.0

17.5

19.7

18.7

19.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

65.4

73.2

88.1

129.2

137.4

135.2

141.4

143.5

Intangible Assets

48.2

53.0

63.9

97.7

99.6

98.8

105.4

107.8

Tangible Assets

16.1

19.1

22.5

30.7

35.9

33.5

33.1

32.8

Investments & other

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.8

1.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

Current Assets

 

 

53.5

65.7

83.5

105.1

96.0

107.0

105.3

117.2

Stocks

28.7

32.2

37.8

56.5

44.1

54.2

54.5

57.8

Debtors

17.5

21.5

23.8

33.0

34.8

30.2

39.9

42.3

Cash & cash equivalents

4.9

9.2

15.0

11.5

11.2

13.9

2.1

8.4

Other

2.4

2.8

6.9

4.1

5.9

8.7

8.7

8.7

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19.8)

(25.8)

(25.1)

(26.8)

(30.4)

(34.7)

(36.1)

(37.8)

Creditors

(14.6)

(16.1)

(21.4)

(22.4)

(25.2)

(28.3)

(29.7)

(31.4)

Tax and social security

(1.2)

(3.3)

(3.5)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(4.9)

(4.9)

(4.9)

Short term borrowings

(4.0)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

(1.6)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Other

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.0)

(6.2)

(29.6)

(70.1)

(64.1)

(43.0)

(36.3)

(29.6)

Long term borrowings

(4.6)

0.0

(24.0)

(63.5)

(57.3)

(35.2)

(28.5)

(21.8)

Other long term liabilities

(5.4)

(6.2)

(5.6)

(6.6)

(6.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

Net Assets

 

 

89.1

106.9

116.9

137.4

138.9

164.5

174.2

193.2

Minority interests

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

88.3

106.1

116.0

136.4

138.2

163.8

173.5

192.4

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

44.5

56.8

56.6

62.8

Working capital

(4.6)

(6.1)

0.4

(21.6)

10.6

(6.2)

(8.6)

(3.9)

Exceptional & other

0.6

5.1

(6.3)

3.2

(4.4)

(1.7)

(6.5)

0.0

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.1)

(4.1)

(4.5)

(3.3)

(5.8)

(7.8)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

21.0

27.9

29.7

26.7

46.2

45.6

35.7

51.0

Capex

(5.4)

(6.8)

(10.1)

(15.0)

(16.3)

(14.9)

(21.0)

(17.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8.3)

0.1

(18.3)

(35.4)

0.0

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(2.7)

(1.3)

(1.5)

(1.3)

Equity financing

0.0

0.2

(0.2)

0.6

0.5

3.5

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(12.2)

(13.1)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(17.2)

(7.3)

(18.3)

(19.2)

Other

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.5)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(1.7)

Net Cash Flow

(4.8)

8.1

(13.3)

(40.2)

9.0

23.4

(6.8)

11.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

17.9

24.7

FX

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.6

(2.7)

1.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

17.9

24.7

13.4

Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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