Q3 order intake encouraging

XP Power 10 October 2019 Update
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XP Power

Q3 order intake encouraging

Q3 trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

10 October 2019

Price

2340p

Market cap

£447m

$1.23:£1

Net debt (£m) at end Q319*

*Excludes lease liabilities

50.0

Shares in issue

19.1m

Free float

90%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.4)

10.4

(18.5)

Rel (local)

0.8

15.4

(17.4)

52-week high/low

2,700p

1,965p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions with production facilities in China, Vietnam and the US, and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the US and Asia.

Next events

FY19 trading update

13 January 2020

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Despite a tough trading environment in Q3, XP Power saw improving order flow and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04x for the quarter and management anticipates meeting its FY19 expectations. Helped by currency, our FY19 revenue forecast appears conservative but in the face of volatile trading conditions, we maintain our estimates.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

166.8

36.1

147.0

78.0

15.9

3.3

12/18

195.1

41.2

172.8

85.0

13.5

3.6

12/19e

199.8

36.8

153.7

88.0

15.2

3.8

12/20e

209.0

39.9

166.9

92.0

14.0

3.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q319 sees better performance

XP reported Q319 revenues of £53.8m, 2% higher y-o-y (-1% in constant currency) and 3% higher q-o-q. Order intake of £55.9m was 8% higher y-o-y (+4% in constant currency) and 22% higher q-o-q, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04x for Q319. The company noted that order intake from healthcare, industrial and technology customers remained robust but orders from semiconductor equipment manufacturing customers (18% of H119 revenues) saw no notable recovery. XP announced a Q3 dividend of 20p (in line with our estimate), payable on 13 January 2020 to shareholders at 13 December 2019. Net cash (excluding lease liabilities) reduced slightly to £50.0m from £50.4m at the end of Q219. As the debt is US dollar denominated, this implies a larger reduction in the underlying debt.

FY19 outlook unchanged

Management anticipates group performance in line with its expectations as outlined at its interims in August (ie for H2 revenues to grow versus H1). To achieve our FY19 revenue forecast implies Q419 revenues of £47.1m (-4% y-o-y and -12%
q-o-q), which, based on the order intake for Q3, look achievable. We make no changes to our forecasts, bearing in mind volatility around trade tariffs and sterling.

Valuation: Confidence returning

The stock is up 9% year to date and 15% since interims were announced in August. The stock has partially reduced the discount versus UK electronics and international power converter peers but continues to trade at a discount of c 30% and c 40% respectively on a current year P/E basis while offering a strong dividend yield. The company has taken steps to mitigate the impact of trade tariffs between China and the US as well as preparing for Brexit; evidence that margins are benefiting from this self-help should support upside to the stock. A return to order growth from the semiconductor equipment sector would be a further trigger for upside.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'m

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

93.9

101.1

101.1

109.7

129.8

166.8

195.1

199.8

209.0

Cost of Sales

(49.0)

(51.5)

(51.0)

(55.1)

(67.8)

(89.2)

(102.8)

(110.9)

(114.1)

Gross Profit

44.9

49.6

50.1

54.6

62.0

77.6

92.3

88.9

94.9

EBITDA

 

 

23.3

26.0

27.6

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

49.0

52.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

21.0

23.3

24.5

25.9

28.8

36.4

42.9

40.0

42.9

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

(0.6)

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.3)

(0.4)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(2.6)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

Reported operating profit

21.0

23.3

24.5

25.6

28.0

32.5

39.3

33.7

39.2

Net Interest

(0.8)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(3.2)

(3.0)

Joint ventures & associates

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

20.2

22.9

24.3

25.7

28.6

36.1

41.2

36.8

39.9

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

20.2

22.9

24.3

25.4

27.8

32.2

37.6

30.5

36.2

Reported tax

(4.5)

(4.5)

(4.8)

(5.5)

(6.3)

(3.6)

(7.2)

(5.5)

(6.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

15.7

18.4

19.5

20.2

22.3

28.8

33.9

30.2

32.7

Profit After Tax (reported)

15.7

18.4

19.5

19.9

21.5

28.6

30.4

25.0

29.7

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

15.5

18.2

19.4

20.0

22.1

28.5

33.7

29.9

32.5

Net income (reported)

15.5

18.2

19.4

19.7

21.3

28.3

30.2

24.8

29.4

Basic ave.number of shares outstanding (m)

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

81.7

95.8

102.1

105.3

116.2

149.4

176.1

156.6

170.1

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

81.3

95.1

101.1

104.3

115.3

147.0

172.8

153.7

166.9

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

81.7

95.8

102.1

103.7

112.0

148.3

157.8

129.7

154.1

Dividend (p)

50

55

61

66

71

78

85

88

92

Revenue growth (%)

(9.4)

7.7

0.0

8.5

18.3

28.5

17.0

2.4

4.6

Gross Margin (%)

47.8

49.1

49.6

49.8

47.8

46.5

47.3

44.5

45.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

24.8

25.7

27.3

27.0

25.4

25.0

25.2

24.5

25.1

Normalised Operating Margin

22.4

23.0

24.2

23.6

22.2

21.8

22.0

20.0

20.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

52.8

53.3

56.1

65.4

73.2

88.1

129.2

141.7

144.9

Intangible Assets

38.1

39.1

40.5

48.2

53.0

63.9

97.7

103.3

105.1

Tangible Assets

13.2

12.7

14.4

16.1

19.1

22.5

30.7

37.6

39.0

Investments & other

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

Current Assets

 

 

39.3

42.2

47.0

53.5

65.7

83.5

105.1

105.0

110.5

Stocks

19.8

20.4

25.2

28.7

32.2

37.8

56.5

57.7

56.3

Debtors

14.2

15.4

16.0

17.5

21.5

23.8

33.0

32.8

34.4

Cash & cash equivalents

4.1

5.0

3.8

4.9

9.2

15.0

11.5

10.3

15.8

Other

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.4

2.8

6.9

4.1

4.1

4.1

Current Liabilities

 

 

(20.2)

(22.4)

(18.6)

(19.8)

(25.8)

(25.1)

(26.8)

(31.1)

(32.0)

Creditors

(11.1)

(12.7)

(14.4)

(14.6)

(16.1)

(21.4)

(22.4)

(24.8)

(25.7)

Tax and social security

(1.6)

(1.1)

(1.7)

(1.2)

(3.3)

(3.5)

(4.2)

(4.2)

(4.2)

Short term borrowings

(7.3)

(8.5)

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

(1.9)

(1.9)

Other

(0.2)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.6)

(3.7)

(4.2)

(10.0)

(6.2)

(29.6)

(70.1)

(68.0)

(63.0)

Long term borrowings

(7.4)

0.0

0.0

(4.6)

0.0

(24.0)

(63.5)

(61.4)

(56.4)

Other long term liabilities

(3.2)

(3.7)

(4.2)

(5.4)

(6.2)

(5.6)

(6.6)

(6.6)

(6.6)

Net Assets

 

 

61.3

69.4

80.3

89.1

106.9

116.9

137.4

147.5

160.3

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

61.1

69.2

80.2

88.3

106.1

116.0

136.4

146.4

159.2

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

23.3

26.0

27.6

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

49.0

52.5

Working capital

4.2

(0.3)

(4.1)

(4.6)

(6.1)

0.4

(21.6)

1.3

0.9

Exceptional & other

0.4

(0.5)

1.9

0.6

5.1

(6.3)

3.2

(2.6)

0.0

Tax

(4.3)

(5.0)

(3.6)

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.1)

(4.1)

(5.5)

(6.5)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

23.6

20.2

21.8

21.0

27.9

29.7

26.7

42.2

46.9

Capex

(4.7)

(3.2)

(5.8)

(5.4)

(6.8)

(10.1)

(15.0)

(18.4)

(16.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.6)

0.1

0.1

(8.3)

0.1

(18.3)

(35.4)

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(3.2)

(3.0)

Equity financing

(0.5)

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

0.2

(0.2)

0.6

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(9.1)

(10.1)

(11.0)

(12.2)

(13.1)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(16.8)

(17.4)

Other

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

7.7

7.0

4.9

(4.8)

8.1

(13.3)

(40.2)

3.8

10.5

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

18.6

10.6

3.5

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

53.0

FX

0.3

0.1

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.6

(2.7)

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

(0.1)

(4.8)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

10.6

3.5

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

53.0

42.5

Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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