Q221 results and capital actions progress

Attica Bank 9 September 2021 Update
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Attica Bank

Q221 results and capital actions progress

Q221 results

Banks

9 September 2021

Price

€0.1

Market cap

€46m

€1.17/£

Common equity tier 1 ratio (Q221, statutory)

3.1%

Shares in issue

461.3m

Free float

18.5%

Code

TATT

Primary exchange

Athens

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(33.3)

(39.9)

(39.5)

Rel (local)

(34.2)

(39.3)

(58.1)

52-week high/low

€0.29

€0.10

Business description

Attica Bank is the fifth-largest bank in Greece, with assets of €3.5bn and 55 branches centred around Athens. It has a 2% market share of business banking and around 2% market share of most retail banking products.

Next events

Various capital actions

Q3/Q421

Analyst

Pedro Fonseca

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Attica Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

There were some encouraging signs in Attica’s Q221 results, with good momentum in core (interest and fees) revenue while impairments have now been at relatively low levels for two quarters after the balance sheet clean-up in recent years. The reported €4.4m loss reflects the fact that Attica needs to gain scale before it can be profitable. This requires more equity: Attica’s statutory CET1 is now only 3.1% (3.7% in Q121). Attica is pushing forward with its capital strategy. The deferred tax assets (DTA) to deferred tax credits (DTC) conversion has been activated, which will result in €151m (about 500bp of H121 risk-weighted assets, RWA) of equity being injected. Attica has also made progress on the securitisations front while shareholders have approved an equity raising of up €240m for this year. We suspended forecasts in July until further clarity on the outcome of these capital actions.

Year end

Pre-provision profit (€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

Price/NTA*
(x)

12/18

38.8

4.8

(0.01)

(0.4)

N/A

0.09

12/19

1.6

(23.6)

0.01

1.0

N/A

0.09

12/20

0.01

(285.8)

(0.66)

(87.4)

N/A

0.22

Note: *NTA = net tangible assets.

Core revenue +30% y-o-y

Attica’s core revenue in Q221 was up 30% y-o-y to €15.9m driven by rising activity levels and lower funding costs. Total revenue did drop by 12% y-o-y to €16.2m, but the decline was due to losses on Greek government bonds, which is a volatile line. Operating expenses were flat at €17.6m and impairments totalled €3.1m (annualised charge rate of 74bp). Net loans rose by +13% y-o-y, and new loan generation doubled from Q121.

Securitisations moving ahead…

Attica announced on 27 August that it was selling its controlling stake in Thea Artemis, the manager of the Omega securitisation, to Ellington Securities with a €1m gain for Attica bank. This sale has now been done. Attica expects to complete the sale of the mezzanine and junior tranches in its Omega securitisations to Ellington. It has also received a non-binding offer for Astir 1 tranches. The sale of tranches in these two securitisations and Astir 2 have the aim to remove the legacy non-performing exposure (NPE) from the balance sheet and reduce the total NPE percentage of gross loans from 45% to 1%.

…as well as other capital actions

The conversion of the DTA to DTC is expected to effectively result in an equity injection of €151m (c 500bp of H121 RWA). We describe this process and Attica’s various capital actions in our 6 July note Capital action to the fore. The planned rights issue carries the risk of significant dilution to existing shareholders. However, if successful Attica would likely have a healthy balance sheet that would allow it to pursue its strategy of doubling the loan book in three years by focusing on the energy, green and infrastructure business loan segments.

Q221 results

Attica reported a pre-tax loss of €4.3m in Q221, compared to a loss of €8.2m in the previous quarter and a loss of €16.5m of a year ago. There are good underlying trends with net interest margin (NIM) continuing to rise and impairment charges well below 1% for the second quarter following the heavy provisioning done in Q420. Core revenue (interest income and fees) rose by 30% y-o-y, while operating costs have remained flat. Exhibit 1 shows the recent quarterly progression.

Attica’s strategic plan calls for doubling the balance sheet and increasing product penetration (with a focus on bancassurance) to increase the revenue base to allow the bank to become profitable. The bank believes it has mostly right sized for growth although it is still operating a voluntary exit plan for employees to further increase efficiency. At the same time, it is still recruiting for some key positions.

Attica’s digital channels are being increasingly used as management continues to enhance these channels. Active e-banking users increased by 25% y-o-y in H121 and mobile transactions increased by 110%.

Net loans growth has increased by 13% y-o-y to €1,680m while client deposits rose 9%. The bank believes that it could end this year with net loans around at €1.8bn. New loan generation doubled in Q221 compared to Q121, so momentum seems to be picking up.

However, balance sheet expansion is greatly limited by bank’s low capital position. Attica’s statutory CET1 fell from 3.7% to 3.1% during Q221. Attica’s NPE remains little changed at 45% of gross loans; this is before the ongoing securitisations. If the securitisations are successfully completed this is expected to drop to c 1% of gross loans.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly progression

 

Q220

Q320

Q420

Q1021

Q221

y-o-y%

Net interest income

11,794

14,637

12,489

14,169

14,615

24%

Net fees and commissions

457

1,112

-863

752

1,256

175%

Core revenue

12,251

15,749

11,626

14,921

15,871

30%

Other operating income

6,124

5,151

2,349

(4,827)

386

-94%

Total revenue

18,375

20,900

13,976

10,094

16,258

-12%

Operating expense

(17,564)

(17,090)

(18,858)

(15,788)

(17,567)

0%

Pre-provision profit

811

3,811

(4,883

(5,695

(1,309)

n.m.

Impairment charge for loan losses

(16,718)

(10,060)

(226,607

(2,324)

(3,079)

n.m.

Profit before tax

(16,452)

(6,245)

(252,066)

(8,208)

(4,338

n.m.

Net loans

1,490,898

1,545,493

1,600,946

1,627,186

1,679,771

13%

DTA

448,516

449,649

421,357

423,495

414,307

-8%

Assets

3,619,463

3,603,629

3,579,549

3,647,565

3,647,151

1%

Client Deposits

2,650,147

2,653,072

2,801,439

2,851,646

2,896,037

9%

Tier 2 debt securities

99,755

99,768

99,781

99,794

99,807

0%

Equity

462,705

453,992

206,689

201,476

187,535

-59%

Ratios

NIM % financial assets

1.77%

2.18%

1.85%

2.00%

2.03%

Impairment charge % net loans

4.46%

2.65%

57.62%

0.58%

0.74%

NPE % gross loans

46.5%

46.5%

44.6%

44.2%

45.3%

Impaired % net tangible assets

140.3%

143.4%

335.1%

357.6%

434.7%

LLA % NPE coverage

33%

33%

44%

44%

41%

CET 1 Statutory

9.8%

9.4%

4.9%

3.7%

3.1%

Source: Attica Bank

Capital plans update

Offers received for securitisations

Since our last note was published, Attica has received a binding offer from Ellington for the mezzanine and junior notes of the Omega securitisation as well as for the majority share capital of Theo Artemis, Omega’s manager. This offer has been accepted by Attica Bank. The Omega securitisation comprises of the repackaging of the Artemis securitisation (with of €1.4bn gross value of NPEs, no longer on the balance sheet) concluded in 2017 plus an estimated €211m (€156m net of allowances) of newly securitised loans from the balance sheet. Attica had €935m of NPEs in H121 with more than 95% being legacy NPEs that are planned to be removed through the three securitisations, Omega and Astir 1 (mostly business loans) and Astir 2 (mostly retail loans),

Attica has also received a non-binding offer for the mezzanine tranche of the Astir 1 securitisation. Astir consists of €342m of NPEs. Management had previously flagged that the sale of the mezzanine and junior notes of the Astir 2 securitisation (€342m of NPEs) were likely to complete after the other two securitisations.

DTA to DTC conversion triggered

Attica Bank formally triggered in July 2021 the conversion €251m of its €418m of its DTA to DTC. Greece passed legislation in 2013 that allows banks to be able to convert some of their DTA into final claims against the government, effectively exchanging these assets for zero risk-weighted cash. Attica’s very large reported loss in FY20 made it attractive to action this conversion under the above formula. Attica management expects to receive c €152m in cash in exchange for writing off these DTAs.

Attica announced on 30 August 2021 that it had issued 992.5m warrants for shares (one to one ratio) in favour of the Greek state. The redemption price is €0.153 and the warrants will trade until 15 September.

We described the process in detail in our July note, but the key point is that this will result in a new share issue that will be taken up by the Greek government if shareholders decide not to partake.

Extraordinary shareholder meeting

An extraordinary shareholder meeting is scheduled for 15 September 2021 to approve some of the steps that must be taken to facilitate the share issue associated with the DTA to DTC conversion.

The proposal is for a 60-to-one reverse share split that will result in the number of Attica’s shares falling from 461,254,013 to 7,687,567 and the nominal value per share rising from €0.30 to €18.00. The share capital would then be increased by €2.10 per share by incorporating part of the newly created special reserve.

This special reserve is made to reducing Attica’s bank share capital by €136.8m by cutting the nominal value per from €18.00 to €0.20 following the share split. The new special reserve offsets the reduction in share capital; there is no actual net reduction in bank equity or book value.

Rights issue authorisation

Attica Bank’s capital strategy envisages about €300m being raised in equity (in addition to the DTA/DTC conversion) in the next three years. The securitisations are designed to help pave the way for the equity offers. Shareholders gave management permission in July to raise up to €240m in equity in 2021 as part of this capital strategy.

Valuation and forecasts need clarification

For the time being, we are not publishing forecasts or a valuation for Attica. The bank is going through a truly transformative period, and currently heightened uncertainty regarding the securitisations and the anticipated rights issues makes forecasting and valuation difficult. Attica’s market capitalisation is only €46m, compared to €300m projected to be raised in equity, and with possible AT1 bonds being issued and the evaluation of the securitisations by the ratings agency, there is scope for significant shareholder dilution. Failure to raise enough equity could lead to various outcomes including a nationalisation or the bank being sold.

On the other hand, successful securitisations could open the door for a successful rights issue, which could see the bank being reborn focused on a high-growth loan segment, with a new digital platform and a cleaned-up balance sheet.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€000s, year-end 31 December, IFRS

 

FY18

FY19

FY20

INCOME STATEMENT

Net interest income

 

69,290

43,852

50,754

Net fees and commissions

 

6,956

6,540

1,577

Other operating income

 

51,741

21,214

16,862

Revenues

 

127,987

71,606

69,193

Cost

 

(89,192)

(70,043)

(69,122)

Pre-provision profit

 

38,795

1,563

72

Impairment charge for loan losses

 

(27,527)

(24,202)

(264,502)

Impairment other assets

 

(3,191)

(2,050)

(21,530)

Associates

 

(3,329)

1,042

1,286

Profit before tax

 

4,748

(23,647)

(285,846)

Taxation

 

(7,105)

28,645

(20,564)

Non-controlling interest

 

0

0

0

Preference dividend

 

0

0

0

Attributable income

 

(2,357)

4,998

(306,410)

Shares ranking (m)

 

461

461

461

EPS (€)

 

(0.01)

0.01

(0.66)

Underlying PBT

 

(25,038)

(23,647)

(285,960)

BALANCE SHEET

 

Cash and balances with central Bank

 

60,860

138,097

173,778

Due from Financial institutions

 

9,429

67,437

52,359

Investment securities

 

912,238

955,200

981,061

Loans to customers

 

1,592,144

1,547,494

1,600,946

Associates

 

3,427

4,469

4,323

Property, plant and equipment

 

31,646

48,468

47,831

Investment property

 

57,862

58,340

56,704

Intangible assets

 

50,413

52,893

57,673

Deferred tax assets

 

420,357

449,734

421,357

Other assets

 

202,162

205,490

30

Assets held for sale

 

0

0

183,302

Total Assets

 

3,350,505

3,527,734

3,579,364

Deposits from financial institutions

 

424,649

262,456

401,177

Customer deposits

 

2,281,875

2,608,157

2,801,439

Defined benefit obligations

 

12,925

11,667

9,727

Other liabilities

 

40,483

51,642

60,735

Debt securities issued

99,676

99,729

99,781

Total Liabilities

 

2,859,609

3,033,653

3,372,859

Total Shareholder's Equity

 

490,897

494,081

206,689

Preference shares

 

0

0

0

Non-controlling interest

 

0

0

0

Total Shareholder's Equity

 

490,897

494,081

206,689

CAPITAL

 

Common Equity tier 1 (transitional)

 

431,148

284,392

148,312

Total Capital

 

530,824

384,121

248,041

Risk-weighted assets

 

3,204,638

3,222,484

3,005,579

CET1 ratio % (transitional)

 

13.5%

8.8%

4.9%

Total Capital ratio %

 

16.6%

11.9%

8.3%

CET1 ratio % (fully loaded)

 

8.9%

8.1%

-0.4%

ASSET QUALITY

 

Neither past due nor impaired/ stage 1

 

710,127

738,764

776,077

Past due but not impaired/stage 2

 

379,012

238,917

325,464

Impaired/ stage 3

 

755,999

850,698

885,402

Gross loans

 

1,845,138

1,828,379

1,986,943

Impairment allowance

 

252,944

280,885

385,998

Non-performing exposure as %

 

41.0%

46.5%

44.6%

NPE cash coverage

 

33.5%

33.0%

43.6%

PROFITABILITY

 

Cost/Revenues

 

69.7%

97.8%

99.9%

Loan impairments % net loans

 

2.5%

2.5%

25.4%

Return on average equity

 

(0.4%)

1.0%

(87.4%)

Return on average tangible equity

 

(0.5%)

1.1%

(103.8%)

Book value per share (€)

1.06

1.07

0.45

Tangible equity per share (€)

 

0.95

0.96

0.32

Source: Attica Bank


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This report has been commissioned by Attica Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Attica Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Attica Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Attica Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

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New York +1 646 653 7026

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NSW 2000, Australia

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