Plans for sarizotan to enter pivotal development

Newron Pharmaceuticals 21 December 2015 Update

Newron Pharmaceuticals

Plans for sarizotan to enter pivotal development

Pipeline update

Pharma & biotech

18 December 2015

Price

CHF26.55

Market cap

CHF378m

€0.92/CHF

Net cash (€m) at end June 2015

43.1

Shares in issue

14.2m

Free float

77%

Code

NWRN

Primary exchange

SIX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.1)

1.1

15.7

Rel (local)

0.2

3.4

17.3

52-week high/low

CHF35.0

CHF23.1

Business description

Newron Pharmaceuticals is an Italian CNS-focused biotechnology company. Safinamide/Xadago for Parkinson’s disease has been approved in mid-late PD in Europe and launched in Germany; the US PDUFA date is 29 March 2016. Safinamide is partnered with Zambon and Meiji Seika.

Next events

Start of sarizotan pivotal trial

Q116

US safinamide FDA approval decision (PDUFA 29 March)

Q116

NW-3509 Phase II data

Q416

Partnering agreements for safinamide and/or NW-3509

2016

Analysts

Dr Philippa Gardner

+44 (0)20 3681 2521

Susie Jana

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Christian Glennie

+44 (0)20 3077 5727

Newron recently announced detailed plans for the sarizotan pivotal trial in Rett Syndrome (RS), which could allow for first approval by end 2017 if initiated in Q116. With RS an orphan indication, we believe Newron could commercialise alone in key regions (US and major EU). The planned NW-3509 Phase II trial has now started prior to partnering. Separately, Newron has decided to terminate sNN0031 and sNN0029 owing to issues with the delivery device (third-party supplier). The Xadago US decision is now at end March (from end Dec). Our updated valuation is CHF522m.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/13

3.5

(7.7)

(0.62)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/14

1.6

(10.7)

(0.79)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/15e

3.0

(15.1)

(1.11)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

4.1

(15.0)

(1.06)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items.

Pivotal sarizotan trial in RS planned

Newron is planning to initiate a pivotal Phase II/III study in RS in coming months to assess sarizotan’s efficacy in treating fatal-breathing disorders associated with RS. RS is a genetic neurodevelopmental disorder that generally affects girls and leads to difficulty in breathing, swallowing, movement and speaking. Newron estimates that there around 36,000 RS patients in the US and Europe. Sarizotan has been shown in preclinical RS models to reduce apnoea. We continue to forecast potential first approval by year-end 2017 and peak sales of €260m. Given the size of the indication, Newron could commercialise in RS alone with a small salesforce.

NW-3509 Phase II starts ahead of potential partnering

As expected, Newron has now started the Phase II proof-of-concept trial with NW-3509 as an add-on to antipsychotics. NW-3509 is a partnering candidate, given the potential size of the indication. Phase II data are expected in Q416 but a deal could be agreed sooner if suitable terms are offered.

Xadago: Inaugural sales; US decision now in March

With H115 financial results, Newron reported first Xadago-related royalties from sales of Xadago in Germany by commercial partner Zambon. Xadago has now been approved in Switzerland and we expect further launches across Europe by partner Zambon in coming months. The Xadago (safinamide) US PDUFA decision date was recently extended by three months to 29 March 2016. This is for the FDA to process recent non-data related submissions.

Valuation: rNPV of CHF522m or CHF36.8/share

Our updated Newron valuation is CHF522m (from CHF526m). Both sNN0031 and sNN0029 have been removed. We have slightly delayed initial US Xadago sales, while maintaining our peak €450m in PD. Our valuation also includes risk-adjusted contributions for Xadago in dyskinesia, sarizotan in Rett syndrome and NW-3509. We have included proceeds from the November CHF5.4m US private placement.

Newron Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Overview of sarizotan and Rett syndrome

Rett Syndrome (RS) is a genetic neurodevelopmental disorder that generally affects girls, and arises from a non-inherited genetic mutation (MECP2 mutation on the X chromosome). The mutation leads to central nervous system disorders, including impaired brain function, leading to issues with a number of functions, including breathing, swallowing, movement and speaking.

RS affects between one in every 10,000 to 15,000 female births (source: US NIH), with Newron estimating that there are around 36,000 RS patients in the US and Europe. Children with RS will generally develop normally until 1-2 years of age, when development will slow and regress. Given the infrequency of RS, precise mortality rates are difficult to establish. However, life expectancy is generally thought to be less than the general population.

According to the IRSF (International Rett Syndrome Foundation) sudden death occurs in around 25% of RS patients, with studies speculating that possible causes could include respiratory failure and apnoea, owing to an underlying disorder in the heart’s electrical activity. Research suggests that RS is associated with a prolonged QT interval1 (a measure of the heart’s electrical activity).

  Ellaway C J, Sholler G, Leonard H. et al Prolonged QT interval in Rett syndrome. Arch Dis Child 1999. 80470–472.472.

Sarizotan is not being developed to address the underlying cause of RS, but rather as a potential treatment for these life-threatening breathing disorders. Sarizotan, which modulates the activity of serotonin and dopamine receptors in the brain was in-licensed from Merck KGaA in 2011. Sarizotan was previously examined as a treatment for Parkinson’s disease (PD) by Merck KGaA but failed in two Phase III trials in 2006.

In preclinical studies, sarizotan has demonstrated reduced apnoea and corrected irregular breathing in RS mouse models. These data are shown in Exhibit 1. On the left, the RS mouse model shows recurring instances of apnoea, which are corrected when treated with sarizotan, with apnoea overall reduced by 70-85%. It is this profile which has encouraged Newron to pursue pivotal development of sarizotan in RS; the study plans are described in more detail below.

Exhibit 1: Sarizotan reduced apnoea and breathing irregularities in preclinical studies

Source: Newron

Phase II/III sarizotan study

The planned Phase II/III pivotal study will recruit around 90 RS patients at least 13 years old. Two doses of sarizotan will be investigated (5mg and 10mg, twice daily), which will be compared to placebo. Efficacy will be assessed via a measure of respiratory function (using an at-home monitor); the primary endpoint of the study is the reduction in the number of apnoea episodes at 24 weeks. After 24 weeks, all patients will be switched to receive sarizotan and will be followed for a further 48 weeks. Newron has sought advice from both regulators and key opinion leaders in the design of this study.

Although RS is a rare condition, diagnosed patients are generally included on patient registries and are known by patient advocacy groups and physicians who work in the RS field. Newron is working with these groups, in particular Rettsyndrome.com, which should help to facilitate recruitment of patients into the planned study. Assuming the study commences during Q116 and allowing around six months for recruitment, top-line primary endpoint data (based on 24 weeks of treatment) could become available during H117.

Given there is already a substantial safety database accumulated with prior development in PD, the planned 90-patient study could be sufficient to obtain regulatory approvals, particularly given the lack of available treatments in this indication. Our forecasts assume first approval in the US during H217, with launch shortly thereafter, with sarizotan potentially eligible for accelerated review given the unmet medical need.

Given the small size of the indication, we continue to assume that Newron will commercialise sarizotan alone in key markets, including the US and major European countries. We have made no changes to our €260m peak sales forecast, which is based on pricing of €60,000 a year, reflecting the ultra-orphan indication and assumes a 40% penetration of the targeted patients (which we assume is a quarter of the overall market). Pricing and penetration will ultimately depend on sarizotan’s magnitude of benefit; if sarizotan can command pricing of €80,000 a year with 70% penetration of our assumed target market (one quarter of RS patients) this would suggest peak sales of around €600m.

Newron could be eligible to qualify for an FDA 'Rare Paediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher', a transferable voucher that allows for an accelerated FDA approval process. The voucher does not have to be used for sarizotan or by Newron and can be sold to a third party (for example, priority review vouchers either for paediatric or for tropical diseases have been purchased for $67-350m, the most recent being the United Therapeutics rare paediatric voucher, which it sold to AbbVie in August 2015 for $350m).

There is some uncertainty around the future availability of these vouchers. The current ‘Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act’ limits the period during which these can be awarded to one year after issuance of the third voucher; this was awarded in March 2015. Extending the current system for a further three years is under consideration.

NW-3509 enters Phase II ahead of partnering

In-line with previously announced plans, Newron has announced initiation of a Phase II study with NW-3509 as a potential add-on therapy to antipsychotics for the treatment of schizophrenia. Newron anticipates initial efficacy data could become available in Q416. Given the potential size of the addressable market, Newron plans to out-license NW-3509. Availability of efficacy data could help to maximise deal terms, although we believe Newron would be prepared to partner NW-3509 sooner if favourable terms were offered.

The Phase II trial will recruit at least 60 schizophrenic patients who have breakthrough symptoms despite being on a stable dose of current available therapy. NW-3509 is administered orally twice per day and patients will receive 5-25mg/day. Symptoms will be measured over four weeks, which will be compared to placebo.

At this stage, we have made no changes to our key underlying assumptions for NW-3509, which conservatively assume, in the absence of efficacy data, that NW-3509 could achieve peak sales of c €380m, representing only around 2% of the estimated $23bn antipsychotic market (Newron estimate). We also continue to include standard deal terms including a double-digit royalty on sales, commensurate with an asset out-licensed with proof-of-concept data. Given the size of this market, NW-3509’s potential could be significantly larger than our current estimate.

Valuation

With sarizotan plans now in place and this progressing to a pivotal study, we have increased the probability of success to 30% (from 20%). This remains conservative, given the pivotal nature of the trial. However, to date there is limited efficacy data in the proposed target group of patients, with only data from preclinical models available; this makes assessing the likelihood of success in RS more challenging, and hence why we apply a heavy risk-adjustment to this programme.

We have removed both sNN0031 and sNN0029 from our sum-of-the-parts valuation, following Newron’s decision to terminate both projects. For Xadago in the US, we have slightly delayed initial sales following the extended FDA review process, and have also pushed out the potential approval milestone to 2016 (from 2015) in our valuation forecasts. Our Xadago forecasts continue to include €450m of peak sales in PD. We have made no other major changes to the remainder of our valuation assumptions, which include risk-adjusted contributions for Xadago in dyskinesia, sarizotan in Rett syndrome and NW-3509, which Newron is planning to partner.

Our valuation has been rolled forward in time and updated for net cash (which comprises last reported gross cash of €44m, last reported total debt of €0.9m relating to an Italian government loan, and incorporates the CHF5.4m gross proceeds from the private placement, we estimate CHF5.1m net), equating to €47.8m/CHF52.0m at current FX rates (€0.92/CHF). Our updated valuation is therefore CHF522m (from CHF526m), or CHF36.8/share.

Exhibit 2: Newron rNPV valuation

Product

Indication

Launch

Peak sales
(€m)

NPV
(CHFm)

Probability

rNPV
(CHFm)

NPV/share
(CHF/share)

Xadago

Parkinson's Disease

2015

450

344.3

90-100%

327.2

23.0

Dyskinesia

2018

390

151.6

40%

60.6

4.3

Sarizotan

Rett syndrome

2018

260

251.0

30%

67.9

4.8

NW-3509

Schizophrenia

2019

380

91.5

20%

14.7

1.0

sNN0031

Severe PD

2018

200

147.3

0%

0.0

0.0

sNN0029

ALS

2018

250

192.8

0%

0.0

0.0

Net cash at end June 2015

52.0

100%

52.0

3.7

Valuation

 

 

 

890.4*

522.4

36.8

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Products in shaded rows have been terminated and are left in for illustrative purposes only to give an overview of our key prior assumptions. *Our total NPV does not include the terminated products sNN0031 and sNN0029.

Financials

Our financial forecasts have been updated to incorporate H115 results, in addition to changes arising from the termination of sNN0029 and sNN0031 and the recent US private placement. The main changes to our forecasts are in Exhibit 3. Although the Xadago FDA extended review has pushed back any potential milestone due from partner Zambon on approval to 2016, this has no impact on our financial forecasts, as we did not include this milestone in our revenue forecasts (we generally do not include uncertain/unknown milestones in our financial forecasts). However, the slightly later launch has led us to lower expected royalty income in 2016. Our updated 2016 revenue forecast of €4.1m is based purely on royalty income related to Xadago sales in Europe and does not include any potential milestone related income. If Xadago is approved in the US, we believe Newron will be eligible to receive a milestone payment from Zambon (we estimate around €9m). Furthermore, if Zambon successfully sub-licenses Xadago in the US, which could be facilitated once US approval is granted, Newron is entitled to receive a portion of any upfront or milestones; we estimate this is around 25% of income that Zambon negotiates (and around 50% of any royalties that Zambon receives).

With H115 results, Newron reported first Xadago-related royalties of €93k to end June 2015, following launch by partner Zambon in mid-May. Based on our assumed 12% royalty rate (we assume a tiered royalty starting at 12% with a step-up to 18%), this suggests initial sales of €775k in the six weeks since mid-May launch to 30 June period-end. If sales continue at the current run rate, Germany alone could contribute nearly €7m of sales in the first 12 months of launch. Newron also reported milestone income of €1.8m for the European approval (versus our forecast of €6m). With the European approval milestone below our previous forecast, we have lowered our 2015 revenue forecast by around €4m.

Underlying H115 R&D spend was €7.6m, offset by €2.8m of grant and expense reimbursement by Zambon, with Newron reporting H115 R&D costs of €4.7m (compared to our last published FY15 forecast of €11.5m). G&A was €4.1m (compared to our last published FY15 forecast of €7.1m). Our last published 2015 forecast for total operating expenses of €18.6m is broadly in line with €8.8m reported with H115 (allowing for an uptick in R&D with the start of further trials including NW-3509 and with sarizotan) and we have made no changes to our total operating expenses forecast. However, within this we have increased G&A by €1m, while reducing R&D spend by a similar amount, reflecting the H115 trends.

Our R&D forecast in 2016 has been increased to reflect the size of the planned sarizotan study; our previous forecasts assumed a trial in around 60 patients; with the planned trial now in 90 patients we have raised R&D spend in 2016 to reflect this.

Despite the higher G&A base in 2015, there are limited changes in future years owing to the restructuring in Sweden (discussed in more detail below).

Our previous R&D forecasts for the now terminated sNN0029 and sNN0031 only included costs of the current pilot clinical trials and did not include future costs of any pivotal development, hence there are only limited changes to our underlying R&D spend estimates with the termination of these projects. We assume there will be some residual costs associated with the ongoing pilot studies to bring these to a complete close, so have not removed all associated spend immediately from our future forecasts.

The book value for sNN0029 and sNN0031 at the end of 2014 was €6.8m and we assume Newron will record the bulk of this as an impairment charge of €6m during 2015. The termination of these programmes will also lead to a restructuring in Sweden, affecting up to six employees. Our forecasts now include a €0.6m restructuring charge in 2015, in addition to a corresponding decrease in future G&A spend. These are our preliminary estimates, which will be subject to change when the accounting treatment and impact are disclosed in the future. We allocate both the impairment and restructuring charge to exceptional items.

Newron reported cash and equivalents of €44m at end June 2015 and has debt of €0.9m relating to an Italian government grant, for net cash at end June of €43.1m. This has been boosted by CHF5.4m gross proceeds from a private placement with a US biotechnology/healthcare specialist fund (issuing 209k shares at CHF25.60/share), we estimate CHF5.1m net proceeds, or €4.7m at current FX, for total estimated net cash of around €47.8m (CHF52m at current FX). We continue to estimate that this should be sufficient to fund operations for the foreseeable future.

Exhibit 3: Key changes to financial forecasts

€m

2015

2015

% change

2016

2016

% change

 

Old

New

Old

New

Revenue

7.130

3.016

-58

5.822

4.127

-29

Research and development

(11.500)

(10.000)

-13

(10.000)

(12.000)

+20

Selling, general and administration

(7.090)

(8.095)

+14

(7.442)

(7.553)

+1

Operating profit (reported)

(11.460)

(21.680)

+89

(11.620)

(15.426)

+33

Profit before tax (reported)

(11.104)

(21.699)

+95

(11.123)

(15.040)

+35

Profit after tax (reported)

(11.104)

(21.711)

+96

(11.123)

(15.040)

+35

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

€000s

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015e

2016e

Year-end December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

806

4,289

8,924

3,539

1,557

3,016

4,127

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gross Profit

806

4,289

8,924

3,539

1,557

3,016

4,127

Research and development

(15,922)

(3,822)

(3,534)

(4,537)

(6,017)

(10,000)

(12,000)

EBITDA

 

 

(21,491)

(6,394)

(2,634)

(7,737)

(11,182)

(15,029)

(15,375)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(21,613)

(6,465)

(2,684)

(7,766)

(11,202)

(15,056)

(15,402)

Intangible Amortisation

(27)

(17)

(13)

(10)

(13)

(24)

(24)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

(6,600)

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(21,640)

(6,482)

(2,697)

(7,776)

(11,215)

(21,680)

(15,426)

Net Interest

(33)

45

200

63

492

(19)

386

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(21,646)

(6,420)

(2,484)

(7,703)

(10,710)

(15,075)

(15,016)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(21,673)

(6,437)

(2,497)

(7,713)

(10,723)

(21,699)

(15,040)

Tax

1,128

(8)

122

615

628

(12)

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(20,518)

(6,428)

(2,362)

(7,088)

(10,082)

(15,087)

(15,016)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(20,545)

(6,445)

(2,375)

(7,098)

(10,095)

(21,711)

(15,040)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

6.6

7.3

8.2

11.5

12.7

13.6

14.2

EPS - normalised (€)

 

 

(3.10)

(0.88)

(0.29)

(0.62)

(0.79)

(1.11)

(1.06)

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (€)

 

(3.10)

(0.88)

(0.29)

(0.62)

(0.79)

(1.11)

(1.06)

EPS - (reported) (€)

 

 

(3.11)

(0.89)

(0.29)

(0.62)

(0.80)

(1.59)

(1.06)

Dividend per share (EUR)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

6,026

5,937

11,900

9,821

7,686

1,671

1,656

Intangible Assets

5,188

5,171

11,199

9,125

6,993

975

957

Tangible Assets

128

56

72

79

67

70

73

Investments

710

710

629

617

626

626

626

Current Assets

 

 

13,106

7,629

32,747

21,797

29,388

42,308

30,018

Stocks

396

246

233

301

102

98

98

Debtors

2,557

1,469

2,811

2,088

3,320

3,719

3,719

Cash

8,087

5,367

29,243

18,426

25,702

38,327

26,037

Other

2,066

547

460

982

264

164

164

Current Liabilities

 

 

(4,635)

(2,827)

(11,585)

(6,070)

(4,489)

(3,583)

(5,176)

Creditors

(4,635)

(2,472)

(11,230)

(5,712)

(4,131)

(3,225)

(4,818)

Short term borrowings

0

(355)

(355)

(358)

(358)

(358)

(358)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,306)

(4,154)

(5,454)

(4,458)

(3,324)

(2,966)

(2,608)

Long term borrowings

0

(1,802)

(1,447)

(1,087)

(729)

(371)

(13)

Other long term liabilities

(2,306)

(2,352)

(4,007)

(3,371)

(2,595)

(2,595)

(2,595)

Net Assets

 

 

12,191

6,585

27,608

21,090

29,261

37,430

23,890

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(17,973)

(4,884)

6,015

(10,071)

(9,370)

(15,609)

(12,279)

Net Interest

0

0

0

1

107

100

386

Tax

(1,128)

8

(122)

(615)

(628)

148

(3)

Capex

(7)

(1)

(11)

(56)

(22)

(30)

(30)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

9,971

301

0

0

0

Financing

3,185

0

8,378

0

17,547

28,379

0

Other

1,602

0

0

(20)

0

(6)

(6)

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(14,321)

(4,877)

24,231

(10,460)

7,634

12,983

(11,932)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(22,408)

(8,087)

(3,210)

(27,441)

(16,981)

(24,615)

(37,598)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,087)

(3,210)

(27,441)

(16,981)

(24,615)

(37,598)

(25,666)

Source: Edison Investment Research, Newron Pharmaceuticals accounts. Note: Newron is based in Italy and reports financials in euros. It is listed in Switzerland on the SIX with the share price quoted in Swiss francs (CHF).

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=181584). Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2015 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Newron Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2015. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Share this with friends and colleagues