On track

Evolva Holding 1 September 2016 Update

Evolva Holding

On track

H116 results

Food & beverages

 

1 September 2016

Price

CHF0.64

Market cap

CHF255m

Net cash (CHFm) at 30 June 2016

66.7

Shares in issue

397.9m

Free float

76%

Code

EVE

Primary exchange

SIX Swiss Ex

Secondary exchange

OTC US

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(14.7)

(9.9)

(54.4)

Rel (local)

(15.4)

(9.7)

(51.0)

52-week high/low

CHF1.45

CHF0.58

Business description

Evolva is a Swiss high-tech fermentation company. It has a proprietary yeast technology platform, which it uses to create and manufacture high-value speciality molecules for nutritional and consumer products.

Next events

FY 16 results

March 2017

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Evolva Holding is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

H116 results confirmed Evolva is on track: following the stevia delay announced in March, the company has identified bottlenecks and is making good progress towards addressing them. As expected, production constraints with resveratrol have been resolved and nootkatone remains a strong proposition as an insect repellent. Our updated fair value of CHF1.10 per share (previously CHF1.14) reflects a slight move in FX rates and a slight increase in FY16 revenue forecasts, and represents 67% upside from the current share price.

Year end

Revenue (CHFm)

PBT* (CHFm)

EPS* (CHF)

DPS (CHF)

P/E (x)

Yield (%)

12/15

13.4

(32.1)

(8.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

13.1

(34.3)

(8.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

19.4

(32.4)

(8.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18e

29.4

(28.0)

(7.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Stevia progress encouraging

The news of the stevia delay in March was disappointing, but newsflow over the past few months has been encouraging: a European patent has been granted on a significant aspect of production, the FDA has issued a no objection letter, and with the H1 results, we have learned that in the four months since the delay was announced, the bottlenecks have been identified and the company is half way to addressing all the technical issues. We assume stevia is launched in mid-2018, and we believe this may now be too conservative given the speed with which the issues are being addressed, but we are leaving our assumptions unchanged for now as we await another update later this year.

Focus products all performing well

With the announcement of the stevia delay, management also chose to slightly shift the alignment of the company, identifying three focus products (stevia, nootkatone/valencene and resveratrol) and increasing the resource behind them. With the three products all progressing well, the decision seems sound. While the focus has shifted away from smaller products such as saffron and sandalwood, which are likely to progress more slowly, it is nevertheless encouraging that partnering negotiations are still taking place for these products.

Valuation: Fair value of CHF1.10/share

Our new fair value is CHF1.10 (previously CHF1.14). We have slightly increased our FY16 revenue forecast, in line with management guidance for flat revenues, and tweaked our assumptions for santalol, saffron and nootkatone. This results in a cut to 2018 revenues, due to phasing of the ramp up of the various products. Evolva is well capitalised with a cash position of CHF66.7m at June 2016. We forecast the company will have enough cash through to the end of FY17. However, if the option to enter into a JV with Cargill is exercised in 2017 and the previously issued capex guidance of c CHF30m is still valid, Evolva will need to raise more cash by 2018.

Valuation: DCF-based fair value of CHF 1.10/share

We value Evolva on a 25-year DCF basis. Our fair value is CHF1.10 (previously CHF1.14, as the USD/CHF rate has moved slightly), which offers c 70% potential upside from the current share price. We have slightly increased our FY16 revenue forecasts, in line with management guidance for flat revenues for the year, and we note that the recent positive newsflow is supportive of the investment case (see our recent note). We assume all product cash flows stop after 25 years and start to fade beyond 15 years; we also assume a WACC of 12.5% given we deem Evolva to be higher-than-average risk in relation to the consumer space. We illustrate a summary of our DCF valuation in Exhibit 1.

Stevia

We do not expect any major catalysts in the short term, although clearly the recent stevia news is helpful and positive. We believe Evolva will continue to work on its current product suite and will seek collaborations with new partners, as per management guidance. Evolva’s prospects are mostly tied to the success of its stevia sweetener, EverSweet, although it is not fully dependent on it. As a reminder, EverSweet is a mixture of Reb D and Reb M, which with Evolva’s fermentation process can obtained reliably and in large quantities, whereas in nature these occur at far lower concentrations than the more traditional stevia sweetener, Reb A. Stevia accounts for c 40% of our valuation (after adjusting for tax and capex).

Compared to existing stevia formulations, the taste of EverSweet continues to be a highly attractive proposition in our view, as Evolva’s product lacks the trademark bitter aftertaste that hinders the use of traditional stevia (Reb A) at higher concentrations. However, the delay to the launch does increase the risk of a competing product being launched in the interim, although we are not aware of any imminent. The company has never issued revenue guidance on stevia, other than stating it believes the addressable market is $4bn. With the H1 results, management noted that its own (unpublished) projections regarding stevia revenue have been reduced by 10-20% on the grounds that the delay has allowed alternative technologies (such as taste modulators) to gain some traction and hence erode the overall potential of stevia. We believe this is already accounted for in our forecasts as we assume EverSweet can only reach a peak market share of 15% of the addressable $4bn market, or $600m peak sales. We also note we forecast EverSweet is launched mid-2018, but as discussed above, management comments with the H116 results suggest the bottlenecks could be addressed more quickly than we expect.

Nootkatone

We note that although stevia accounts for a significant proportion of our valuation, Evolva also has other products. Nootkatone, which is being developed in collaboration with the US CDC (Center for Disease Control), has gained momentum and is now often mentioned as having potential for fighting off the Zika virus. It could also be effective against mosquitoes that transmit chikungunya, dengue and West Nile viruses, as well as repelling and killing the yellow fever mosquito and the black-legged tick, which transmits Lyme disease. We have increased our assumption for peak sales from $100m to $150m, given management’s updated guidance of “>$100m” and the positive momentum behind its use as a pesticide.

Other products

We have reduced our saffron and santalol peak sales assumptions to reflect the reduced emphasis on them, as management has shifted the focus towards its three main products, namely stevia, nootkatone and resveratrol.

Exhibit 1: Summary of DCF valuation

Product

Value (CHFm)

Value per share (CHF)

Notes

Stevia royalties

285.6

0.72

Launch date: 2018; peak sales: $600m; likelihood of success 80%; operating margin: 40%; profit share: 45%.

Saffron royalties

10.8

0.03

Launch date: 2018; peak sales: $50m; likelihood of success 60%; royalty: 10%.

Resveratrol

95.3

0.24

Launched; peak sales: $200m; likelihood of success 100%; margin: 40%.

Vanilla royalties

35.7

0.09

Launched; peak sales: $100m; likelihood of success 100%; royalty: 5%.

Nootkatone

105.6

0.27

Launched; peak sales: $150m; likelihood of success 75%*; margin: 40%.

Valencene

26.3

0.07

Launched; peak sales: $10m; likelihood of success 100%; margin: 40%.

Santalol

11.7

0.03

Launch date: 2018; peak sales: $10m; likelihood of success 60%; margin: 40%.

Legacy products

33.5

0.08

EV-077 for diabetic nephropathy, EV-035 antibiotic indications

L'Oreal/Takasago revenues

119.7

0.30

Launch date: 2019-21; number of products: 5; peak sales: $150m per product; likelihood of success: 50%; royalty: 8%.

Other alliance royalties

32.6

0.08

Royalties from alliances with Ajinomoto, BASF and Roquette; launch date: 2016-18; number of products: 3; peak sales: $150m per product; likelihood of success: 60%; royalty: 2%.

Other revenues

19.8

0.05

Only includes revenues from existing collaborations and grants.

R&D and admin

-267.1

-0.67

 

Tax

-121.3

-0.30

Capex

-33.0

-0.08

Includes investment of $30m for commercialisation of stevia with Cargill.

Net cash

83.2

0.21

Net cash at FY15

Total

438.4

1.10

 

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note WACC = 12.5%. *There is no developmental risk associated with Nootkatone, but we have applied a risk adjustment due to uncertainty about the use of the product as an insect repellent.

H116 results

H116 results were largely in line with our forecasts and company guidance. Sales were below our forecasts, but R&D and SG&A costs were also both below forecasts and hence the operating loss was in line. Greater than expected tax income resulted in the net loss being better than our forecast. We have broadly maintained our underlying forecasts as H116 results yielded no surprises. We have increased our FY16 revenue forecasts slightly, in line with management guidance that revenues will be broadly flat for the year. In addition we have updated our forecasts for FX, which has moved only slightly since we last published.

Evolva is well funded following the CHF57m capital raising in September 2015. We forecast it will have enough cash through to the end of FY17. However, if the option to enter into a JV with Cargill is exercised in 2017 or early 2018 and the previously issued capex guidance of c CHF30m is still valid, our forecasts indicate that Evolva will need to raise more cash by 2018, so further rounds of capital raising remain a potential dilution risk. The guidance issued at the time of the last capital raising was that capital expenditure of c CHF30m was required to convert and retrofit the existing Cargill fermentation facility in Blair, Nebraska. With the FY15 results, management confirmed that a contract-manufacturing route might be considered nearer the launch, but this would significantly reduce margins, and hence conversion of the facility in Nebraska remains the more likely option. We therefore believe a further round of capital raising is likely nearer the time of the EverSweet launch in 2018.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

CHF'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

10,744

13,364

13,055

19,403

29,351

Cost of Sales

0

0

(1,322)

(4,229)

(8,926)

Gross Profit

10,744

13,364

11,733

15,174

20,425

EBITDA

 

 

(19,405)

(30,305)

(33,436)

(31,346)

(27,351)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

(20,872)

(31,947)

(34,973)

(32,099)

(34,616)

Intangible Amortisation

(2,284)

(3,779)

(3,779)

(3,779)

(3,779)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(23,156)

(35,726)

(38,395)

(36,412)

(32,519)

Net Interest

(357)

(129)

333

208

82

Other financial income

57

0

0

0

650

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(21,172)

(32,076)

(34,283)

(32,425)

(28,007)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(23,456)

(35,855)

(38,063)

(36,204)

(31,786)

Tax

1,613

4,067

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(19,069)

(28,113)

(34,283)

(32,425)

(28,007)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(21,843)

(31,788)

(38,063)

(36,204)

(31,786)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

291.9

353.0

397.9

397.9

397.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(6.4)

(8.0)

(8.6)

(8.1)

(7.0)

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

(7.3)

(9.0)

(9.6)

(9.1)

(8.0)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

149,742

143,457

140,437

142,387

149,317

Intangible Assets

136,111

131,940

128,161

124,381

120,602

Tangible Assets

10,484

8,431

9,190

9,920

10,629

Other fixed assets

3,147

3,086

3,086

8,086

18,086

Current Assets

 

 

62,870

88,780

56,842

21,536

8,309

Stocks

313

2,217

1,449

2,317

2,934

Debtors

1,510

2,785

2,861

3,190

4,825

Cash

60,713

83,228

51,981

15,478

0

Other current assets

334

550

550

550

550

Current Liabilities

 

 

(13,460)

(7,385)

(7,700)

(7,759)

(30,460)

Creditors

(2,408)

(1,182)

(1,497)

(1,557)

(1,596)

Short term borrowings

(3,522)

0

0

0

(22,662)

Finance lease obligations

(354)

(969)

(969)

(969)

(969)

Other current liabilities

(7,176)

(5,234)

(5,234)

(5,234)

(5,234)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(24,158)

(21,437)

(20,468)

(19,499)

(18,530)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Finance lease obligations

(3,904)

(4,134)

(3,165)

(2,196)

(1,228)

Other long term liabilities

(20,254)

(17,303)

(17,303)

(17,303)

(17,303)

Net Assets

 

 

174,994

203,416

169,111

136,665

108,636

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(19,437)

(31,353)

(28,671)

(28,725)

(25,156)

Net Interest

(361)

(376)

333

208

82

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(1,201)

(1,865)

(1,939)

(2,017)

(2,097)

Acquisitions/disposals

418

3,278

0

0

0

Financing

56,776

59,956

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Other cash flow

(4,614)

(3,975)

(969)

(5,969)

(10,969)

Net Cash Flow

31,582

25,666

(31,246)

(36,503)

(38,140)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(25,633)

(57,191)

(83,188)

(51,941)

(15,439)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(25)

331

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(57,191)

(83,188)

(51,941)

(15,439)

22,702

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Evolva Holding and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). 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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Evolva Holding and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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