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On target to reach top end of guidance

bet-at-home 4 November 2019 Update
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bet-at-home

On target to reach top end of guidance

Q319 results

Travel & leisure

4 November 2019

Price

€49.02

Market cap

€344m

Net cash (€m) at 30 September 2019, including €11.9m tax liability

33.3

Shares in issue

7.0m

Free float

47.3%

Code

ACXX

Primary exchange

XETR

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.5

(12.9)

(14.8)

Rel (local)

(1.1)

(17.7)

(24.6)

52-week high/low

€73.60

€44.30

Business description

Founded in 1999, bet-at-home is an online sports betting and gaming company with c 300 employees. It is licensed in Malta and headquartered in Dusseldorf, Germany. Since 2009 bet-at-home has been part of Betclic Everest, a privately owned French online gaming company.

Next events

FY19 results

9 March 2020

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

bet-at-home (BAH) has reported Q319 gross gaming revenues (GGR) of €35.7m and EBITDA of €5.6m, slightly above our estimates. We are therefore raising our FY19 GGR and EBITDA forecasts by 4.4% and 2.5%, respectively, so that they are now at the top end of guidance. As disclosed in September, BAH is liable for €11.9m of Austrian tax back payments and annual tax will also rise by c €5m, which reduces our normalised FY19 EPS by 16.6%. Including the tax liability, net cash was €33.3m at Q3119. Given the negative tax news, we now forecast a prospective dividend of €4/share (rather than €5/share) which equates to an 8.2% dividend yield.

Year end

Revenue (GGR**) (€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

145.4

36.4

4.81

7.50

10.2

15.3

12/18

143.4

36.2

4.65

6.50

10.5

13.3

12/19e

142.9

32.9

3.31

4.00

14.8

8.2

12/20e

143.1

33.1

3.37

4.00

14.5

8.2

Note: *EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Increased estimates still assume weak Q4

Against the tough backdrop of the 2018 Football World Cup and Swiss IP blocking (from July 2019), BAH reported an encouraging set of Q319 results. GGR declined by 5.1% to €35.7m and EBITDA was €5.6m, both of which were slightly higher than our expectations. Total customers reached 5.2m, helped by a high level of marketing spend (35.3% of GGR). Management has reiterated FY19 guidance of €130–143m GGR and EBITDA of €29–33m. This compares to €106.8m GGR and €27.0m EBITDA already achieved this year. We are raising our FY19 GGR and EBITDA estimates by 4.4% and 2.5% respectively and we are now at the top end of guidance, which still implies a very negative impact from Swiss IP blocking in Q419.

bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Austrian taxes impact net cash and future EPS

As disclosed in September, BAH has had ongoing tax discussions in Austria and is now liable for €11.9m of back payments for the period 2013–18. In addition, future taxes are expected to be €5m higher annually. The back payment is excluded from our normalised EPS but we have lowered our FY19 and FY20 EPS estimates by 16.6% and 15.8% respectively, largely as a reflection of the annual increase. BAH ended Q319 with net cash of €33.3m (including the €11.9m tax liability and excluding €7.9m customer cash). Although timing for the back payment remains unclear, we are assuming cash payment in Q419.

Valuation: 8.2% prospective dividend yield

BAH trades at 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 14.5x P/E for FY20e, which is towards the top end of the peer group, but its net cash position remains healthy (despite the increased tax) and the 8.2% prospective dividend yield is very attractive. In our view, a major catalyst would be concrete evidence of positive regulation in core markets, especially for German e-gaming (casino).

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'m

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue (GGR)

 

 

107.0

121.6

138.7

145.4

143.4

142.9

143.1

146.0

Cost of Sales

(12.3)

(21.3)

(25.8)

(27.6)

(28.2)

(25.8)

(26.7)

(27.3)

Net Gaming Revenue

94.7

100.3

112.9

117.8

115.1

117.1

116.4

118.7

EBITDA

 

 

26.8

31.6

33.0

36.4

36.2

32.9

33.1

34.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

30.7

31.9

35.1

34.9

31.1

31.1

32.5

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(0.1)

0.1

0.0

(0.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

25.8

30.8

31.9

34.1

34.9

31.1

31.1

32.5

Net Interest

1.7

2.2

2.2

1.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

27.5

32.9

34.1

36.6

35.0

31.1

31.1

32.5

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

27.5

32.9

34.1

35.7

35.0

31.1

31.1

32.5

Reported tax

(1.8)

(2.3)

(3.1)

(2.8)

(2.4)

(19.7)

(7.5)

(7.8)

Profit After Tax (norm)

25.7

30.6

31.0

33.8

32.6

23.2

23.7

24.7

Profit After Tax (reported)

25.6

30.7

31.0

32.8

32.6

11.3

23.7

24.7

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

25.7

30.6

31.0

33.8

32.6

23.2

23.7

24.7

Net income (reported)

25.6

30.7

31.0

32.8

32.6

11.3

23.7

24.7

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

3.66

4.36

4.42

4.81

4.65

3.31

3.37

3.52

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

3.66

4.36

4.42

4.81

4.65

3.31

3.37

3.52

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

3.65

4.37

4.42

4.68

4.65

1.62

3.37

3.52

Dividend (€)

0.60

2.25

7.50

7.50

6.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

Revenue growth (%)

25.0

13.6

14.0

4.8

(1.4)

(0.3)

0.2

2.0

Gross Margin (%)

88.5

82.5

81.4

81.0

80.3

82.0

81.3

81.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

25.0

26.0

23.8

25.0

25.3

23.0

23.1

23.6

Normalised Operating Margin

24.2

25.2

23.0

24.1

24.4

21.7

21.7

22.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

4.5

4.8

4.9

4.0

3.4

7.1

6.1

5.1

Intangible Assets

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

Tangible Assets

2.1

2.6

2.9

2.0

1.4

5.0

3.8

2.6

Investments & other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

89.9

123.3

140.5

120.6

99.9

68.8

66.4

65.0

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

57.9

70.7

47.9

16.9

20.1

22.0

25.0

28.0

Cash & cash equivalents

21.8

40.7

82.3

94.4

70.6

36.3

30.9

26.5

Customer cash

9.7

9.4

9.5

7.5

7.7

8.0

8.0

8.0

Other

0.5

2.5

0.7

1.8

1.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(27.0)

(32.7)

(35.7)

(35.3)

(34.0)

(33.4)

(34.4)

(35.4)

Creditors

(1.3)

(1.0)

(0.5)

(1.8)

(3.3)

(4.3)

(5.3)

(6.3)

Short term provisions/ tax liabilities

(14.1)

(19.9)

(21.4)

(22.6)

(19.2)

(17.1)

(17.1)

(17.1)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(11.5)

(11.8)

(13.9)

(10.9)

(11.5)

(12.0)

(12.0)

(12.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Net Assets

 

 

67.5

95.3

109.6

89.3

69.3

38.5

34.1

30.7

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

67.5

95.3

109.6

89.3

69.3

38.5

34.1

30.7

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

26.8

31.6

33.0

36.4

36.2

32.9

33.1

34.5

Working capital

(4.4)

(3.6)

(0.1)

(2.4)

(6.5)

(0.9)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Exceptional & other

5.8

5.9

0.4

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tax

(1.8)

(2.3)

(3.1)

(2.8)

(5.0)

(19.7)

(7.5)

(7.8)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

26.4

31.7

30.2

30.8

24.8

12.3

23.7

24.7

Capex

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.7)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(2.4)

(1.1)

(1.3)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

2.2

2.2

0.3

1.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(2.8)

(4.2)

(15.8)

(52.6)

(52.6)

(45.6)

(28.1)

(28.1)

Other

(15.0)

(9.6)

28.2

33.0

4.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

8.4

19.0

41.6

12.1

(23.8)

(34.3)

(5.4)

(4.4)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13.4)

(21.8)

(40.7)

(82.3)

(94.4)

(70.6)

(36.3)

(30.9)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(21.8)

(40.7)

(82.3)

(94.4)

(70.6)

(36.3)

(30.9)

(26.5)

Source: BAH accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by bet-at-home and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by bet-at-home. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by bet-at-home and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by bet-at-home. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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