Moving ahead with Amapa

Cadence Minerals 18 February 2022 QuickView
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Cadence Minerals

Moving ahead with Amapa

Metals & mining

QuickView

18 February 2022

Price

20.4p

Market cap

£34m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

KDNC/KDNCY

Listing

AIM/OTC

Shares in issue

168.1m

Business description

Cadence Minerals is an early-stage investment and development company in the mining space, with a strong historical exposure to the lithium segment. In addition, it owns 30% in some tenements related to the Yangibana REE (Rear Earth Elements) project through a JV with Hastings Technology Metals.

Bull

Early investor in the fast-growing lithium sector.

Diversified mining portfolio, with mature lithium assets providing exit optionality.

Favourable iron ore market conditions for an integrated, brownfield project.

Bear

Low visibility on asset disposals.

Amapa will require significant funding and is yet to complete.

Further risk of dilution to fund corporate activity and investments.

Analysts

Andrey Litvin

+44 (0)20 3077 5755

Charlie Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Cadence Minerals is an experienced investor in mining projects and companies with a portfolio of early-stage and advanced assets spanning lithium, iron ore and REE industries. The company gained early exposure to lithium and, while it retains stakes in a number of lithium assets, it has recently completed a 20% investment in the Amapa iron ore project, a past producing mine with associated transport infrastructure in Brazil.

Restarting the brownfield iron ore project in Brazil

In 2019, Cadence entered into an agreement to acquire up to 27% in the Amapa iron ore project in Brazil, a JV with Indo Sino, for US$6m. The initial US$2.5m for 20% is payable on successful conclusion of the settlement agreement with bank creditors (c $103m), which was completed in February 2022. According to Cadence, conditions for the second stage of the transaction have already been satisfied. Amapa is a past producing, open-pit mine (majority owned by Anglo American before its sale in 2012) capable of producing c 5–6Mtpa of pellet feed and concentrate. It benefits from access to a private railway and port facilities. According to Cadence, the project’s mineral resource is 185Mt at 39% Fe, implying a mine life of c 14 years. Initial estimates suggest FOB opex of c $21/t, capex of c $168m and a restart time of 18–24 months. Iron ore market conditions remain favourable, with prices hovering at c $130/t, potentially benefiting an established, integrated project, with a short time to market and a premium product.

Lithium: Early-mover advantage

Cadence was an early investor in the lithium space, building a portfolio of non-controlling interests in a number of promising projects at attractive prices. It now holds a 30% interest in some of the concessions that form part of the development-stage Sonora lithium project in Mexico: a c 10% interest in European Metals (ASX: EMH), which owns 49% of the large-scale, PFS-stage Cinovec lithium project in the Czech Republic, and a 31% stake in two hard rock lithium prospects in Australia. Following the successful acquisition of Bacanora Lithium, the Sonora project is now owned by Ganfeng Lithium, one of the largest producers of lithium compounds.

Funding strategy and asset monetisation

The recently raised £4.1m (gross) in equity will be used to fund the remaining 7% investment ($3.5m) in Amapa. Furthermore, Cadence’s stake in EMH, its most liquid investment, is currently valued at c US$15m. The company’s asset portfolio is at a relatively mature stage, potentially offering attractive exit opportunities, but visibility on any future disposals remains low. The ongoing PFS on the Amapa project is expected to be funded from Cadence’s JV investment, while repayments to creditors are guided to be met from the sale of existing iron ore stockpiles.

Historical financials

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

EBIT
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

0.0

(1.7)

(1.9)

(2.2)

N/A

N/A

12/20

0.0

8.9

7.8

6.7

N/A

N/A

Source: Cadence Minerals

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This report has been commissioned by Cadence Minerals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Cadence Minerals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Cadence Minerals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Cadence Minerals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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