Interims confirm portfolio growth and performance

Target Healthcare REIT 7 March 2019 Update
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Target Healthcare REIT

Interims confirm portfolio growth and performance

Interim results

Real estate

7 March 2019

Price

115.5p

Market cap

£445m

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2018

42.2

Gross LTV at 31 December 2018

15.3%

Shares in issue

385.1m

Free float

96.7%

Code

THRL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.9)

6.0

7.5

Rel (local)

(1.4)

(1.4)

7.4

52-week high/low

118.0p

101.5p

Business description

Target Healthcare REIT invests in modern, purpose-built residential care homes in the UK let on long leases to high-quality care providers. It selects assets according to local demographics and intends to pay increasing dividends underpinned by structural growth in demand for care.

Next events

Q3 NAV update

Ext. April 2018

Analysts

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Target Healthcare REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Target Healthcare REIT has published interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2018 (H119), providing the detail behind the Q4 NAV update published in January. This showed the portfolio performing well (H119 EPRA NAV total return 4.2%) and good progress being made with deployment of the November placing proceeds. The attractive dividend yield is backed by very long leases, mostly RPI linked, and supported by careful asset and operator selection. We continue to forecast a fully covered dividend in FY20.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

Adj. net earnings* (£m)

Adjusted EPS* (p)

EPRA NAV/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV per share (x)

Yield
(%)

06/17

23.6

13.2

5.23

101.9

6.28

1.13

5.4

06/18

28.4

15.7

5.54

105.7

6.45

1.09

5.6

06/19e

34.4

21.0

5.68

106.5

6.58

1.08

5.7

06/20e

43.1

25.8

6.71

110.6

6.71

1.04

5.8

06/21e

44.4

26.6

6.91

115.1

6.84

1.00

5.9

Note: *Adjusted earnings exclude revaluation movements, non-cash income arising from the accounting treatment of lease incentives and guaranteed rent review uplifts, acquisition costs and performance fees, and include development interest under forward fund agreements.

4.2% six-month EPRA NAV return

As discussed in detail in our recent update, the 4.2% H119 EPRA NAV total return comprised a 1.1% increase in NAV to 106.9p versus 105.7p in June 2018 (end-FY18) and dividends paid. Quarterly DPS has increased 2.0% to 1.64475p in H119, an annualised c 6.58p, or a current yield of 5.7%. The portfolio continues to grow strongly (£464m at end-H119 versus £386m at end-FY18) and is performing well, delivering 1.3% rental growth and 2.8% valuation growth on a like-for-like basis. With an end-H119 net LTV of 9.1% and borrowing facilities increased by £40m since period end, Target is well placed meet investment commitments and make further acquisitions from a strong pipeline of near-term opportunities.

Demographics support long-term growth

Demographics should support growing care-home demand for years to come, while there is an undersupply of the modern, well-designed homes, fully equipped with en-suite wet rooms and suitable communal spaces that differentiate Target’s investment strategy. Investors continue to be attracted by long lease lengths and upwards-only RPI-linked rental growth, with strong competition for assets. Although increasing asset prices have a positive impact on the NAV, they make Target’s disciplined approach to acquisitions, targeting ‘future-proof assets’, an essential ingredient in delivering attractive and sustainable long-term returns.

Visible income growth supports premium to NAV

Target offers a growing dividend, with visible inflation-linked potential for growth, which we expect to be fully covered by adjusted earnings in FY20. The dividend represents a highly attractive yield (5.7%) that supports the continuing c 8% premium to Q219 NAV.

Summary of the interim results

The H119 results show continuing strong portfolio growth and recurring income earnings. During the period, £81.8m (including costs) was committed to new investment, a mix of operational homes and forward-funded developments. Good progress has been made in deploying the £50m (gross) proceeds from the November share placement, although this is yet to fully contribute, dampening adjusted EPS in the period. With gearing remaining moderate and debt facilities increased by £40m since the H119 period end, Target is well placed for further acquisitions from a strong acquisition pipeline, including a number of well-advanced projects.

Exhibit 1: Summary of interim results

H119

H118

H119/H118

FY18

£m unless stated otherwise

IFRS

Adjustments

Adj. Earnings

IFRS

Adjustments

Adj. Earnings

Adj. Earnings

IFRS

Adjustments

Adj. Earnings

Rent revenue

13.3

13.3

10.7

10.7

24%

22.0

22.0

Income from guaranteed rent reviews & lease incentives

2.9

(2.9)

0.0

3.2

(3.2)

0.0

6.3

(6.3)

0.0

Development interest*

0.0

0.8

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

Total income

16.2

(2.1)

14.1

13.9

(3.2)

10.7

32%

28.4

(6.1)

22.3

Base investment manager fee

(2.4)

(2.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

68%

(3.2)

(3.2)

Performance fee*

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

0.4

0.0

(0.6)

0.6

0.0

Other expenses

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.7)

3%

(1.5)

(1.5)

Operating profit before property gains/(losses)

13.0

(2.1)

10.9

11.3

(2.8)

8.5

28%

23.2

(5.5)

17.7

Revaluation of investment properties

3.3

(3.3)

0.0

4.3

(4.3)

0.0

6.4

(6.4)

0.0

Cost of corporate acquisitions

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating profit

16.4

(5.5)

10.9

15.1

(6.6)

8.5

28%

29.6

(12.0)

17.7

Net finance cost

(1.4)

(1.4)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Tax

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

Net earnings

14.9

(5.5)

9.5

14.4

(6.6)

7.8

22%

27.6

(12.0)

15.7

Other data:

H119

H118

FY18/FY17

FY18

IFRS EPS (p)

4.24

5.71

-26%

9.77

Adjusted EPS (p)

2.69

3.08

-12.7%

5.54

EPRA EPS (p)*

2.47

2.92

-16%

5.25

DPS declared (p)

3.29

3.23

2%

6.45

Dividend cover

0.80

0.95

0.82

NAV per share, IFRS & EPRA (p)

106.9

104.4

2%

105.7

Investment properties

438.4

315.4

362.9

Gross LTV

15.3%

24.2%

17.1%

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *EPRA earnings excludes development interest under forward fund agreements and includes investment manager performance fees. Performance fees discontinued from start of FY19.

The key financial and operational features of the interim results were:

The total portfolio value increased to £464m (FY18: £386m) comprising 61 assets (54 operational and seven under development). Alongside continuing investment, valuations increased by 2.8% on a like-for-like basis during the period, driven by rental growth and continued yield tightening. The portfolio valuation reflected an EPRA topped up net initial yield of 6.32% (end-FY18: 6.44%).

The contracted rent roll increased 7.9% to £28.0m including a 1.3% increase in like-for-like rents. The seven homes under development and the forward purchase asset will provide an additional £5.3m in rental income upon completion later in FY19. Target says the acquisition yields on the new investments are representative of assets of a similar standard and location within the existing portfolio.

Adjusted (underlying income) earnings increased by 22% but, reflecting share issuance, adjusted EPS was lower at 2.69p (H118: 3.08p).

Quarterly dividends have increased by 2.0%, amounting to c 3.29p during the period. Dividend cover was 80% but we continue to expect full cover as capital resources are deployed and developments complete.

EPRA NAV per share increased by 1.1% to 106.9p (end-FY18: 105.7p). Including DPS paid, the H119 EPRA NAV total return was 4.2%.

With £71m of drawn debt at period end and cash balances of £28.8m, gross loan to value (LTV) was 15.3% and net LTV was 9.1%. Since end-H119 Target has doubled the size of its revolving credit facility with HSBC, adding an additional £40m of flexible debt facilities, and increasing total debt facilities to £170m.

Little change to our forecasts

Much of the financial and operational progress made in H119 had previously been disclosed in outline and was reflected in the forecasts we published in our February update note, along with our expectations for future portfolio growth. We have updated our forecasts for this detail but adjusted earnings, NAV and DPS show little or no change.

Exhibit 2: Forecast update

Revenue (£m)

Adjusted EPS (p)

EPRA NAV/share (p)

DPS (p)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

06/19e

34.9

34.4

-1.6

5.71

5.68

-0.6

106.3

106.5

0.2

6.58

6.58

0.0

06/20e

43.4

43.1

-0.8

6.72

6.71

-0.2

110.0

110.6

0.5

6.71

6.71

0.0

06/21e

44.7

44.4

-0.7

6.92

6.91

-0.2

114.2

115.1

0.7

6.84

6.84

0.0

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our forecasts assume £55m of further investment commitment

With portfolio growth, Target should benefit from scale economies and further portfolio diversification by asset (currently 61) and tenant (currently 21 but increasing to 26 upon completion of developments and commitments to acquire properties). The revised management fee structure in place from the start of FY19 introduced a tiered base fee structure with reducing rates at higher NAV levels, allowing shareholders to benefit from the increasing economies of scale that a larger portfolio provides. Performance fees were discontinued.

Our forecasts include £55m of additional investment commitment by the end of FY19. We believe this level is consistent with re-gearing the balance sheet to a c 25% LTV, although given Target’s comments about the strength of its acquisition pipeline, we believe it may be exceeded. Full drawdown of the increased debt facilities, for deployment in investment properties, would take the LTV to c 28% and provide scope for perhaps £85m of future commitment, rather than the £55m we model. This increases our confidence in the dividend cover that we forecast in FY20, even if acquisition yields were to continue to tighten. Although higher than the c 25% medium term LTV of which Target has previously spoken, we believe this would still be a comfortable level of gearing given the security of the rental income.

Future-proof asset selection supports income visibility

The security of Target’s contractual income benefits from long leases (weighted average lease term of 28.5 years), mostly RPI rent uplifts, and an increasingly diversified portfolio and tenant base. Strong demand demographics and an undersupply of the modern, well-designed homes that are fully equipped with en-suite wet rooms and suitable communal spaces, of the type in which Target is invested, are also highly supportive. As well as a strong focus on the quality of the physical assets it acquires and their location, the operational capabilities and financial performance of the tenant are also carefully assessed before and after investment. In a challenging operational environment where regulation is high, government funding in short supply and labour costs rising, even strong operators can experience problems. As the portfolio grows so does the chance of potential trading challenges to operators, which is where pro-active asset management plays a role. During the first six months of the current year, the vast majority of assets in the portfolio have continued to perform well and each has seen its value maintained or increased. Target has been pro-actively involved and has:

re-tenanted a challenging home to a new, regional operator, with the lease length significantly extended and now supported by a parent company guarantee;

transferred the pre-agreed lease at one of the assets under development to a new, stronger tenant;

engaged with an existing tenant that had decided to close a home following compliance challenges while it considers how best to reposition the home, meanwhile continuing to collect the rent in full; and

extended the lease at a well-performing home by a further eight years.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

INCOME STATEMENT

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

Rent revenue

 

3,817

9,898

12,677

17,760

22,029

28,450

37,060

38,362

Movement in lease incentive/fixed rent review adjustment

1,547

3,760

4,136

5,127

6,334

5,903

6,000

6,000

Rental income

 

5,364

13,658

16,813

22,887

28,363

34,353

43,060

44,362

Other income

0

66

61

671

3

0

0

0

Total revenue

 

5,364

13,724

16,874

23,558

28,366

34,353

43,060

44,362

Gains/(losses) on revaluation

(2,233)

(839)

425

2,211

6,434

1,819

9,714

10,996

Cost of corporate acquisitions

0

(174)

(998)

(626)

0

0

0

0

Total income

 

3,131

12,711

16,301

25,143

34,800

36,172

52,774

55,358

Management fee

(648)

(1,524)

(2,654)

(3,758)

(3,734)

(4,983)

(5,255)

(5,453)

Other expenses

(780)

(880)

(992)

(1,236)

(1,458)

(1,520)

(1,600)

(1,600)

Total expenditure

(1,428)

(2,404)

(3,646)

(4,994)

(5,192)

(6,503)

(6,855)

(7,053)

Profit before finance and tax

 

1,703

10,307

12,655

20,149

29,608

29,669

45,918

48,304

Net finance cost

190

(716)

(929)

(808)

(2,010)

(3,179)

(4,512)

(4,576)

Profit before taxation

 

1,893

9,591

11,726

19,341

27,598

26,490

41,406

43,728

Tax

(4)

(39)

(24)

(219)

11

0

0

0

Profit for the year

 

1,889

9,552

11,702

19,122

27,609

26,490

41,406

43,728

Average number of shares in issue (m)

105.2

119.2

171.7

252.2

282.5

369.8

385.1

385.1

IFRS earnings

1,889

9,552

11,702

19,122

27,609

26,490

41,406

43,728

Adjust for rent arising from recognising
guaranteed rent review uplifts + lease incentives

(1,547)

(3,760)

(4,136)

(5,127)

(6,334)

(5,903)

(6,000)

(6,000)

Adjust for valuation changes

2,233

839

(425)

(2,211)

(6,434)

(1,819)

(9,714)

(10,996)

Adjust for corporate acquisitions

0

174

998

420

0

0

0

0

EPRA earnings

 

2,575

6,805

8,139

12,204

14,841

18,768

25,692

26,733

Adjust for development interest under forward fund agreements

261

2237

141

-138

Adjust for performance fee

150

466

871

997

550

0

0

0

Group adjusted earnings

 

2,725

7,271

9,010

13,201

15,652

21,005

25,833

26,595

IFRS EPS (p)

1.80

8.02

6.81

7.58

9.77

7.16

10.75

11.36

Adjusted EPS (p)

 

2.59

6.10

5.25

5.23

5.54

5.68

6.71

6.91

EPRA EPS (p)

2.45

5.71

4.74

4.84

5.25

5.08

6.67

6.94

Dividend per share (declared)

6.00

6.12

6.18

6.28

6.45

6.58

6.71

6.84

BALANCE SHEET

Investment properties

81,422

138,164

200,720

266,219

362,918

513,043

530,028

540,823

Other non-current assets

0

2,530

3,742

3,988

27,139

34,544

42,004

48,233

Non-current assets

 

81,422

140,694

204,462

270,207

390,057

547,587

572,032

589,056

Cash and equivalents

17,125

29,159

65,107

10,410

41,400

5,217

6,964

7,738

Other current assets

6,524

6,457

13,222

25,629

3,365

6,093

6,093

6,093

Current assets

 

23,649

35,616

78,329

36,039

44,765

11,310

13,057

13,831

Bank loan

(11,764)

(30,865)

(20,449)

(39,331)

(64,182)

(134,716)

(145,216)

(145,716)

Other non-current liabilities

0

(2,530)

(4,058)

(3,997)

(4,673)

(5,131)

(5,131)

(5,131)

Non-current liabilities

 

(11,764)

(33,395)

(24,507)

(43,328)

(68,855)

(139,847)

(150,347)

(150,847)

Trade and other payables

(3,089)

(3,623)

(5,002)

(5,981)

(7,360)

(9,108)

(9,108)

(9,108)

Current Liabilities

 

(3,089)

(3,623)

(5,002)

(5,981)

(7,360)

(9,108)

(9,108)

(9,108)

Net assets

 

90,218

139,292

253,282

256,937

358,607

409,943

425,634

442,933

Period end shares (m)

95.2

142.3

252.2

252.2

339.2

385.1

385.1

385.1

IFRS NAV per ordinary share

 

94.7

97.9

100.4

101.9

105.7

106.5

110.5

115.0

EPRA NAV per share

 

94.7

97.9

100.6

101.9

105.7

106.5

110.6

115.1

CASH FLOW

Cash flow from operations

 

3,172

8,081

8,906

4,394

23,627

19,373

28,745

31,080

Net interest paid

161

(514)

(681)

(615)

(1,366)

(2,531)

(4,012)

(4,076)

Tax paid

0

(47)

(164)

(543)

(122)

14

0

0

Net cash flow from operating activities

 

3,333

7,520

8,061

3,236

22,139

16,856

24,733

27,004

Purchase of investment properties

(51,894)

(51,736)

(34,833)

(37,698)

(89,981)

(148,379)

(7,271)

0

Acquisition of subsidiaries

0

(5,845)

(27,091)

(25,552)

0

0

0

0

Net cash flow from investing activities

 

(51,894)

(57,581)

(61,924)

(63,250)

(89,981)

(148,379)

(7,271)

0

Issue of ordinary share capital (net of expenses)

44,520

46,644

97,501

0

91,729

49,049

0

0

(Repayment)/drawdown of loans

8,646

22,525

(12,808)

20,906

24,456

70,000

10,000

0

Dividends paid

(4,364)

(7,074)

(9,681)

(15,589)

(17,353)

(23,709)

(25,715)

(26,229)

Other

0

0

14,799

0

0

0

0

0

Net cash flow from financing activities

 

48,802

62,095

89,811

5,317

98,832

95,340

(15,715)

(26,229)

Net change in cash and equivalents

 

241

12,034

35,948

(54,697)

30,990

(36,183)

1,747

774

Opening cash and equivalents

16,884

17,125

29,159

65,107

10,410

41,400

5,217

6,964

Closing cash and equivalents

 

17,125

29,159

65,107

10,410

41,400

5,217

6,964

7,738

Balance sheet debt

(11,764)

(30,865)

(20,449)

(39,331)

(64,182)

(134,716)

(145,216)

(145,716)

Unamortised loan arrangement costs

(497)

(645)

(551)

(669)

(1,818)

(1,284)

(784)

(284)

Net cash/(debt)

 

4,864

(2,351)

44,107

(29,590)

(24,600)

(130,783)

(139,036)

(138,262)

Gross LTV

15.1%

22.8%

10.5%

14.2%

17.1%

25.1%

25.8%

25.1%

Net LTV

0.0%

1.7%

0.0%

10.5%

6.4%

24.1%

24.6%

23.8%

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research


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Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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