Healthcare customers boost Q1 book-to-bill

XP Power 3 April 2020 Update
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XP Power

Healthcare customers boost Q1 book-to-bill

Q1 trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

3 April 2020

Price

2,510p

Market cap

£480m

$1.24/£

Net debt (£m) at end Q120

45.3

Shares in issue

19.1m

Free float

90%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(16.3)

(18.2)

3.7

Rel (local)

3.4

15.4

39.6

52-week high/low

3,820p

2,010p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions with production facilities in China, Vietnam and the US, and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the US and Asia.

Next events

AGM

21 April 2020

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 203 077 5730

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

XP Power’s Q1 trading update confirmed that revenues increased 4% yoy/qoq and the Chinese facility has returned to normal staffing levels. Strong demand, mainly from healthcare customers, saw a 25% qoq increase in orders and a Q1 book-to-bill of 1.49x. Despite strong Q1 demand, the level of uncertainty surrounding both supply and demand for the rest of the year has caused XP to cancel its previously proposed Q419 dividend in order to preserve cash. We maintain our revenue forecasts, but factor in higher costs in FY20 and remove our Q419 and Q120 dividend estimates.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

195.1

41.2

172.8

85.0

14.5

3.4

12/19

199.9

33.2

145.5

55.0

17.3

2.2

12/20e

209.2

37.1

158.5

77.0

15.8

3.1

12/21e

218.2

42.8

179.1

99.0

14.0

3.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q1 order intake spikes on healthcare demand

XP received orders worth £73.1m in Q120, up 34% y-o-y (up 33% constant currency) and up 25% q-o-q. The healthcare sector was particularly strong (XP is designed into c 60 different ventilators) but other sectors were also robust. Q1 revenues of £49.1m were up 4% y-o-y/q-o-q despite the supply chain challenges in China. The Chinese facility is now back up to full strength and Vietnam is also fully operational. End Q120 net debt stood at £45.3m; the company has committed liquidity of £50m through bank loans and cash facilities. XP has decided to withdraw the resolution for the previously announced final 36p dividend, which will preserve £6.9m in cash, and will look to resume paying quarterly dividends as soon as possible.

Outlook uncertain for the remainder of the year

Q1 order intake was higher than we had expected, but it is unclear how much of it is incremental new business and how much is demand being pulled in from H220. In addition, weaker sterling versus the dollar could provide upside to our revenue forecasts. We make no change to our revenue forecasts, as although the Q1 order intake would indicate a revenue upgrade, there is too much uncertainty over demand for the rest of FY20 as well as the potential for COVID-19 restrictions to hamper XP’s ability to deliver product. We factor in higher costs in FY20 to deal with disruptions in the supply chain and cut Q419 and Q120 dividends to zero.

Valuation: Uncertainty weighing on the share price

Since XP reported FY19 results on 3 March, the stock has declined 23% on fears of further COVID-19 disruption. On a P/E basis, XP continues to trade at a material discount to global power converter companies and a smaller discount to UK electronics companies, despite generating EBIT margins at the top end of the peer group. Until there is more clarity on the longer-term global economic implications of COVID-19, we would expect the shares to tread water. However, we highlight XP’s strong backlog and access to funding, which should support it during this period.

Changes to forecasts

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY20e

FY20e

y-o-y

FY21e

FY21e

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Revenues

209.2

209.2

0.0%

4.7%

218.2

218.2

0.0%

4.3%

Gross profit

95.0

94.3

(0.7%)

4.6%

100.3

100.1

(0.1%)

6.2%

Gross margin

45.4%

45.1%

(0.3%)

(0.0%)

45.9%

45.9%

(0.1%)

0.8%

EBITDA

51.3

49.5

(3.4%)

9.1%

55.3

55.3

0.0%

11.6%

EBITDA margin

24.5%

23.7%

(0.8%)

1.0%

25.3%

25.3%

0.0%

1.7%

Normalised operating profit

41.4

39.6

(4.2%)

10.4%

45.1

45.1

0.0%

13.7%

Normalised operating profit margin

19.8%

18.9%

(0.8%)

1.0%

20.7%

20.7%

0.0%

1.7%

Reported operating profit

34.2

32.4

(5.1%)

21.5%

41.4

41.4

0.0%

27.6%

Reported operating margin

16.3%

15.5%

(0.8%)

2.2%

19.0%

19.0%

0.0%

3.5%

Normalised PBT

38.9

37.1

(4.5%)

11.9%

42.8

42.8

0.0%

15.2%

Reported PBT

31.7

29.9

(5.5%)

24.8%

39.1

39.1

0.0%

30.5%

Normalised net income

32.3

30.9

(4.4%)

8.6%

34.9

34.9

0.0%

13.0%

Reported net income

25.7

24.3

(5.6%)

18.6%

31.8

31.8

0.0%

30.9%

Normalised basic EPS (p)

169.1

161.6

(4.4%)

9.0%

182.5

182.5

0.0%

13.0%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

165.9

158.5

(4.4%)

9.0%

179.1

179.1

0.0%

13.0%

Reported basic EPS (p)

134.8

127.3

(5.6%)

18.9%

166.6

166.6

0.0%

30.9%

Dividend per share (p)

95.0

77.0

(18.9%)

40.0%

99.0

99.0

0.0%

28.6%

Net debt/(cash)

46.9

39.5

(15.9%)

(17.3%)

38.4

31.1

(19.2%)

(21.3%)

Net debt/(cash) pre-lease liabilities

42.0

34.6

(17.8%)

(16.3%)

35.0

27.7

(20.0%)

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

109.7

129.8

166.8

195.1

199.9

209.2

218.2

Cost of Sales

(55.1)

(67.8)

(89.2)

(102.8)

(109.8)

(114.9)

(118.1)

Gross Profit

54.6

62.0

77.6

92.3

90.1

94.3

100.1

EBITDA

 

 

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

49.5

55.3

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

28.8

36.4

42.9

35.9

39.6

45.1

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

(0.4)

(0.6)

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Exceptionals

(0.3)

(0.4)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(6.0)

(3.5)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

Reported operating profit

25.6

28.0

32.5

39.3

26.7

32.4

41.4

Net Interest

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(2.7)

(2.5)

(2.3)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

25.7

28.6

36.1

41.2

33.2

37.1

42.8

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

25.4

27.8

32.2

37.6

24.0

29.9

39.1

Reported tax

(5.5)

(6.3)

(3.6)

(7.2)

(3.2)

(5.4)

(7.0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.2

22.3

28.8

33.9

28.7

31.1

35.1

Profit After Tax (reported)

19.9

21.5

28.6

30.4

20.8

24.6

32.1

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

20.0

22.1

28.5

33.7

28.4

30.9

34.9

Net income (reported)

19.7

21.3

28.3

30.2

20.5

24.3

31.8

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

105.3

116.2

149.4

176.1

148.3

161.6

182.5

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

104.3

115.3

147.0

172.8

145.5

158.5

179.1

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

103.7

112.0

148.3

157.8

107.0

127.3

166.6

Dividend (p)

66

71

78

85

55

77

99

Revenue growth (%)

8.5

18.3

28.5

17.0

2.5

4.7

4.3

Gross Margin (%)

49.8

47.8

46.5

47.3

45.1

45.1

45.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

27.0

25.4

25.0

25.2

22.7

23.7

25.3

Normalised Operating Margin

23.6

22.2

21.8

22.0

18.0

18.9

20.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

65.4

73.2

88.1

129.2

137.4

142.8

145.9

Intangible Assets

48.2

53.0

63.9

97.7

99.6

104.7

106.1

Tangible Assets

16.1

19.1

22.5

30.7

35.9

36.2

37.9

Investments & other

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

Current Assets

 

 

53.5

65.7

83.5

105.1

96.0

101.7

106.4

Stocks

28.7

32.2

37.8

56.5

44.1

46.2

47.4

Debtors

17.5

21.5

23.8

33.0

34.8

36.7

38.3

Cash & cash equivalents

4.9

9.2

15.0

11.5

11.2

12.9

14.8

Other

2.4

2.8

6.9

4.1

5.9

5.9

5.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19.8)

(25.8)

(25.1)

(26.8)

(30.4)

(30.6)

(31.1)

Creditors

(14.6)

(16.1)

(21.4)

(22.4)

(25.2)

(25.4)

(25.9)

Tax and social security

(1.2)

(3.3)

(3.5)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.1)

Short term borrowings

(4.0)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

Other

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(10.0)

(6.2)

(29.6)

(70.1)

(64.1)

(57.6)

(51.1)

Long term borrowings

(4.6)

0.0

(24.0)

(63.5)

(57.3)

(50.8)

(44.3)

Other long term liabilities

(5.4)

(6.2)

(5.6)

(6.6)

(6.8)

(6.8)

(6.8)

Net Assets

 

 

89.1

106.9

116.9

137.4

138.9

156.2

170.1

Minority interests

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(0.7)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

88.3

106.1

116.0

136.4

138.2

155.1

169.0

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

29.7

33.0

41.7

49.2

45.4

49.5

55.3

Working capital

(4.6)

(6.1)

0.4

(21.6)

10.6

(3.8)

(2.3)

Exceptional & other

0.6

5.1

(6.3)

3.2

(5.3)

(3.5)

0.0

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.1)

(4.1)

(4.5)

(5.4)

(7.0)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

21.0

27.9

29.7

26.7

46.2

36.9

45.9

Capex

(5.4)

(6.8)

(10.1)

(15.0)

(16.3)

(18.5)

(16.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8.3)

0.1

(18.3)

(35.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(2.7)

(2.5)

(2.3)

Equity financing

0.0

0.2

(0.2)

0.6

0.5

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(12.2)

(13.1)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(17.2)

(7.7)

(18.7)

Other

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Net Cash Flow

(4.8)

8.1

(13.3)

(40.2)

9.0

6.7

6.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.3)

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

34.6

FX

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.6

(2.7)

1.7

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.1

(0.2)

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3.7

(3.7)

9.0

52.0

41.3

34.6

27.7

Source: XP Power accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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