QEX Logistics — FY18 targets increased amid solid demand

QEX Logistics — FY18 targets increased amid solid demand

QEX’s operations are gaining momentum, as illustrated by the recent upward revision of three out of four key operating milestone (KOM) targets set by the company. Management now expects sales turnover to reach at least NZ$30m, assisted by the strong Chinese New Year season, good performance of both the Australian operations and QEX’s Chinese subsidiary, Shanghai Ditu International Freight Forwarder (Ditu), as well as a solid sales outlook for March. The Australian daigou market looks promising, as exhibited by the significant interest in AuMake’s newly opened daigou hub in Sydney.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

QEX Logistics

FY18 targets increased amid solid demand

General industrials

NXT Company Spotlight

23 March 2018

Price

NZ$0.75

Market cap

NZ$38m

Share price performance

Share details

Code

QEX

Listing

NXT

Shares in issue

50.3m

Business description

QEX is a logistics company that facilitates direct trade between New Zealand/Australia and China, aiming to be a one-stop shop for Australasian entities looking to export products to China.

Bull

Fast growth into a large market.

Strong board.

Diversified relationships.

Bear

Acquisitions made could be dilutive.

Rapid growth may present management problems.

Majority of revenues dependent on daigou market.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

QEX Logistics coverage is provided through the NXT Research Scheme

QEX’s operations are gaining momentum, as illustrated by the recent upward revision of three out of four key operating milestone (KOM) targets set by the company. Management now expects sales turnover to reach at least NZ$30m, assisted by the strong Chinese New Year season, good performance of both the Australian operations and QEX’s Chinese subsidiary, Shanghai Ditu International Freight Forwarder (Ditu), as well as a solid sales outlook for March. The Australian daigou market looks promising, as exhibited by the significant interest in AuMake’s newly opened daigou hub in Sydney.

Upward revision of FY18 KOMs

On 5 March, QEX announced that it expects to exceed three of its KOM targets set in the listing document for FY18 (year ending March 2018) by more than 10%. The company should exceed its sales turnover target of NZ$26m and now expects to reach sales of at least NZ$30m. This will be driven by: 1) record activity levels of New Y Trading during the Chinese New Year season; 2) stronger than expected initial sales from the operations in Australia; 3) Ditu demonstrating performance ahead of expectations; and 4) a solid sales pipeline for March. Furthermore, the earlier expectations for monthly volume of exported dairy products at 155 tonnes per month in FY18 will be exceeded by more than 10%. Similarly, the targeted 66,000 parcels to be cleared on average per month in FY18 will also be surpassed by more than 10%. QEX’s fourth KOM target (gross margin at 14.3%) remained unchanged.

FY19 KOMs review post-March

QEX highlighted that the board will review its FY19 KOM targets after 31 March (as required by the NXT Market Rules) and will subsequently provide an update. According to the listing document, QEX expects a sales turnover of NZ$28m in FY19, monthly volume of exported dairy products at 160 tonnes and the number of parcels cleared monthly at 72,000. Given that the revised FY18 numbers are ahead of the current FY19 targets, it is quite likely that QEX will raise the latter as well.

Valuation: Peer comparison

QEX is still relatively small and has few listed peers. AuMake is an Australia-listed company taking a different approach to the daigou market, which had LTM sales at end-December 2017 of c A$18m and a market cap of c A$70m. QEX is currently priced at 14.8x FY17 (end-March 2017) EV/EBITDA, with logistics companies trading on multiples of c 10.9x EV/EBITDA and 22.7x P/E on a trailing 12-month basis.

Company financials

Year
end

Sales turnover (target in future)

PBT
(NZ$m)

Cash
(NZ$m)

Cash from operations (NZ$m)

03/16

18.1

0.6

0.3

0.9

03/17

22.2

2.6

0.1

0.4

03/18e

≥30.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

03/19e

28.0*

N/A

N/A

N/A

Source: QEX (historicals and forecasts). Note: *QEX will review its FY19 target post-March.

Valuation

QEX remains a small company and has few peers. We note that AuMake (a recently listed Australian company) is approaching the daigou market differently, planning to open at least 20 specialist stores in Australia targeting Chinese consumers. It generated LTM revenues as at end-December 2017 of c A$18m and raised A$14m on 22 January 2018.

There are a number of other logistics companies globally, which average 10.9x next-year EV/EBITDA multiples. As can be seen, analyst coverage of these is poor for any companies with market cap of less than c US$700m.

Exhibit 1: Comparative multiples

Market cap
(US$m)

EV/EBITDA (x) trailing 12 months

P/E (x)
trailing 12 months

Direct

 

AuMake International

59

-

-

 

Milk and health supplements

a2 Milk Co

7,374

25.4

69.4

Bellamy's Australia

1,915

-

-

Blackmores

1,760

28.7

35.5

Median

 

27.0

52.4

Logistics

United Parcel Service

93,076

12.5

17.9

FedEx Corp

67,506

10.1

18.5

Deutsche Post

54,751

9.8

17.7

Kuehne + Nagel International

18,215

17.3

23.3

Bollore

15,911

25.6

44.9

DSV A/S

15,070

18.6

26.8

JB Hunt Transport Services

13,255

13.6

31.6

CH Robinson Worldwide

13,006

15.6

27.5

Expeditors International of Washington

11,337

13.8

26.0

Yamato Holdings

10,254

16.1

-

Nippon Express

6,643

7.5

14.7

Hyundai Glovis

5,648

6.1

8.9

Landstar System

4,747

14.9

30.2

Sinotrans

3,477

7.2

13.3

Sankyu

3,211

7.3

15.9

Panalpina Welttransport Holding

3,127

22.5

40.9

Hitachi Transport System

3,024

10.2

16.7

Mainfreight

1,787

14.1

24.3

Forward Air Corp

1,629

11.5

23.1

Hub Group

1,554

12.0

24.0

Kintetsu World Express

1,354

9.9

24.2

Echo Global Logistics

775

18.3

-

Eddie Stobart Logistics

661

-

-

Logwin

467

5.5

14.1

Wincanton

380

4.9

7.3

Hanjin Transportation

264

13.2

-

Sebang

246

5.8

9.5

K&S Corp

158

5.8

38.2

Marsden Maritime Holdings

157

186.1

22.7

TIL Logistics Group

121

-

-

South Port New Zealand

118

10.2

17.8

Lindsay Australia

90

6.8

20.9

CTI Logistics

65

8.1

22.8

Bremer Lagerhaus-Gesellschaft

65

-

-

Hansol Logistics

39

4.5

13.4

Mercantile Ports and Logistics

26

-

-

Median

 

10.9

22.7

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg (priced on 21 March 2018).

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