Firing on all cylinders

Photocure 4 March 2020 Update
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Photocure

Firing on all cylinders

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

4 March 2020

Price

NOK83.8

Market cap

NOK1,827m

NOK9.45/US$

Net cash (NOKm) at 31 December 2019

125

Shares in issue

21.8m

Free float

75.2%

Code

PHO

Primary exchange

Oslo

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.2)

(1.5)

113.5

Rel (local)

6.3

2.9

129.9

52-week high/low

NOK118.80

NOK38.50

Business description

Photocure specialises in photodynamic therapy. Its bladder cancer imaging product is sold as Hexvix in Europe and Cysview in the US. It handles the marketing in Nordic countries and the US, while Ipsen is its marketing partner in the EU. Cevira was licensed to Asieris, with an initial focus of development on China.

Next events

Updates on US growth

2020

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Wiktoria O’Hare

+1 646 653 7028

Photocure is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Photocure announced very strong Q419 results, with 27% revenue growth for the Hexvix/Cysview franchise (vs Q418) to NOK58.8m, an acceleration from the 18% growth seen last quarter. The United States continued to be the main sales driver with revenues of NOK27.8m in Q419, which were up 51% compared to the same quarter last year. Importantly, the company has now indicated that it is targeting US revenues of $70m (NOK658m at current exchange rates) in 2023. While ambitious, this would equate to less than 5% penetration of its addressable market.

Year end

Revenue (NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS*
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

181.5

(22.5)

(1.04)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19

281.6

45.9

1.46

0.0

57.4

N/A

12/20e

289.5

54.9

1.82

0.0

46.0

N/A

12/21e

376.5

135.9

4.45

0.0

18.8

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Continued strength in the US

Q419 sales in the US increased 51% to NOK27.8m and were up 55% for 2019. This was helped by volume growth, a strong US dollar and increased prices. In US dollar terms, sales were up 39% compared to Q418 and unit sales increased 34% during the quarter. The total installed base of blue light cystoscopes (both rigid and flexible) increased to 223, up 42% from the 157 installed at the beginning of 2019.

A US revenue target of $70m for 2023

The company has indicated a target for US revenues of $70m (NOK658m at current exchange rates), a significant increase from the NOK98.7m the company reported in the region in 2019. This would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% over the period. While this is aggressive, given the size of the market it is achievable. Photocure would need to have an annual procedure run rate of around 70,000 in an addressable market with 300,000 TURBT procedures and 1.4m bladder cancer surveillance procedures (less than 5% total penetration).

Nordic and partner sales grow modestly

Nordic revenues were NOK14.5m, up 7% in Q419 compared to Q418, with unit sales flat. Full year 2019 Nordic revenues increased 3% while unit sales fell 2%. Partner revenue increased 14% in the fourth quarter due to currency fluctuations and increased unit sales, which were up 3% because of strength in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Year-to-date partner revenue is up 7%.

Valuation: NOK2,699m or NOK124 per share

We have increased our valuation from NOK1,546m or NOK71 per basic share to NOK2,699m or NOK124 per basic share following a review of our Hexvix/Cysview estimates. While we have markedly increased our estimates, we are still more conservative (NOK420m or $45m in the US in 2023) than management’s target, as such sustained high growth may be difficult to manage.

Q4 results

Photocure reported total revenue of NOK115.6m for Q419, representing 132% growth over Q418. Included in the total revenue is NOK56.8m in other revenues, mostly associated with Asieris, a China-based specialty pharmaceutical company, licensing Cevira for HPV-related (cervical) diseases. Hexvix/Cysview sales were up 27%, growing to NOK58.8m. Sales in the US continued to be strong, up 51% compared to Q418 (up 39% in US dollar terms) and now representing over 47% of total Hexvix/Cysview revenues (up from 40% of revenues in Q418). End-user US unit sales were also strong, growing 34% for the quarter compared to last year, driven in part by an increase in the number of permanent blue light cystoscopes (BLC) installed. There are currently 223 installed, up 42% from the 157 at the beginning of the year (see Exhibit 1). 197 of the total are rigid cystoscopes, while 26 are flexible cystoscopes for use in the surveillance setting. This growth in the installed base is a good indicator of growth in upcoming periods.

Exhibit 1: Permanent blue light cystoscopes installed in the US

Source: Photocure

Another driver of US growth is improved reimbursement. Prior to 2018, CMS did not separately reimburse centres for use of the BLC with Hexvix/Cysview procedures, but instead bundled it with the total reimbursement for transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) procedures so any additional cost related to the product was absorbed by the centre. This has had a direct impact on the availability of BLC with Hexvix/Cysview in the US. Starting in 2018, there was a separate code for BLC with Hexvix/Cysview, which improved reimbursement in 2019 and will further improve in 2020. In November 2019, the company announced that CMS released its final rule, which increased reimbursement by $92 in hospital outpatient departments starting in January 2020. The reimbursement differential with standard white light procedures is now $1,247 in this setting.

Nordic revenues were NOK14.5m, up 7% in Q419 compared to Q418, with unit sales flat. Full year 2019 Nordic revenues increased 3% while unit sales fell 2%. The company has indicated that it has launched a number of initiatives to improve sales performance in this area, which accounts for 25% of sales. Partner revenue increased 14% in the fourth quarter due to currency fluctuations and increased unit sales, which were up 3% because of strength in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Year-to-date partner revenue is up 7%. As a reminder, Photocure is using partners such as Ipsen in the EU outside of the Nordics, BioSyent in Canada and Juno in Australia/New Zealand to market in such regions.

SG&A and other non-R&D operating expenses for Q4 were up 11% to NOK52.0m compared with last year. R&D expenses (excluding depreciation and amortization) remained under control at NOK1.0m, down 51% compared to Q418, as it now consists of maintenance and expansion of Photocure’s intellectual property and some regulatory work rather than discrete development programs (Asieris is responsible for funding the Cevira program). EBITDA for the company was NOK54.8m, a major improvement over the NOK4.1m loss (before restructuring) seen in the same quarter a year ago. The net income for the company was NOK42.5m compared to a NOK12.0m loss last year.

Valuation

We have increased our valuation from NOK1,546m or NOK71 per basic share to NOK2,699m or NOK124 per basic share following a review of our Hexvix/Cysview estimates (in which we changed our US sales estimates from 2021), as well as due to higher net cash and rolling forward our NPVs.

The company has indicated a target for US revenues of $70m (NOK658m at current exchange rates), a significant increase from the NOK98.7m the company reported in the region in 2019. While this growth appears ambitious it may prove achievable. Assuming an average selling price of $1,000, 70,000 procedures would need to be performed in 2023 to achieve this goal. 70,000 is less than 5% of the total number of TURBT and surveillance procedures performed in the United States every year. Additionally, there are currently over 6,000 hospitals in the United States, so between them and urology clinics located outside of hospitals, there is plenty of room for the installed base to grow (223 as of the end of 2019). Importantly, penetration outside of the United States is very high, at 25–70% in the Nordic region (depending on the country) and around 30% in Germany.

However, while we do feel this target of $70m in sales in the US is achievable, our estimates for 2023 are substantially lower than that, at NOK420m (around $45m) in sales. We would like to see if the company is able to sustain the growth rates necessary to achieve its goal prior to increasing our estimates further.

Exhibit 2: Photocure valuation model

Product

Main indication

Status

Probability of commercialisation

Launch year

Peak sales (NOKm)

Peak year

Economics

rNPV (NOKm)

Hexvix/Cysview

Bladder cancer detection

Market

100%

Launched

621

2024

Fully owned – US and Nordics; Partner with Ipsen in EU (35% royalty)

2,279

Cevira

HPV-related diseases

Phase III

40% (China)/ 20% (US/EU)

2024 (China)

3,044

2034

10–20% royalty from Asieris

295

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2,574

Cash and cash equivalents (Q419)

125

Total firm value

2,699

Total basic shares (m)

21.8

Value per basic share (NOK)

124

Options (Q419, m)

0.1

Total number of shares (m)

21.9

Diluted value per share (NOK)

124

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have left our 2020 revenues estimates the same but increased our 2020 SG&A estimates by NOK4.5m due to a higher run rate of spending. We also introduce our 2021 estimates, which include NOK376.5m in revenues and NOK99.2m in net income. The company ended Q419 with NOK125m in cash, up from NOK96m at the end of Q3. We do not expect Photocure to require further financing as we expect it to be profitable on an annual basis from this point forward.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

NOK'000s

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

181,510

281,557

289,518

376,518

Cost of Sales

(17,147)

(22,512)

(23,348)

(26,359)

Gross Profit

164,362

259,045

266,169

350,159

Sales, General and Administrative Expenses

(165,530)

(196,452)

(204,310)

(212,482)

Research and Development Expense

(9,325)

(3,644)

(3,790)

(3,941)

EBITDA

 

 

(10,492)

58,949

58,070

133,735

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(23,703)

42,737

51,584

132,438

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(14,199)

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(37,902)

42,737

51,584

132,438

Net Interest

1,187

3,165

3,291

3,423

Other

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(22,516)

45,901

54,876

135,861

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(36,715)

45,901

54,876

135,861

Tax

6

(14,070)

(14,816)

(36,683)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(22,510)

31,832

40,059

99,179

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(36,709)

31,832

40,059

99,179

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

21.6

21.8

22.0

22.2

EPS - normalised (ore)

 

 

(104)

146

182

445

EPS - FRS 3 (ore)

 

 

(170)

146

182

446

Dividend per share (ore)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

77,767

70,476

63,344

62,250

Intangible Assets

22,502

11,605

3,802

1,901

Tangible Assets

2,141

2,040

2,711

3,518

Other

53,124

56,831

56,831

56,831

Current Assets

 

 

153,429

186,876

235,071

337,336

Stocks

18,582

16,410

33,423

43,466

Debtors

20,371

24,206

28,952

37,652

Cash

106,833

125,320

151,756

235,278

Other

7,643

20,940

20,940

20,940

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52,453)

(38,725)

(38,725)

(38,725)

Creditors

(52,453)

(38,725)

(38,725)

(38,725)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,401)

(10,036)

(11,040)

(12,144)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(2,401)

(10,036)

(11,040)

(12,144)

Net Assets

 

 

176,342

208,591

248,650

348,717

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(24,124)

20,655

25,790

82,836

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

(0)

0

0

Capex

(2,188)

(1,086)

(1,117)

(1,149)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

6,339

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

(2,562)

(1,081)

1,764

1,834

Net Cash Flow

(22,536)

18,487

26,437

83,522

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(129,368)

(106,833)

(125,320)

(151,756)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

1

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(106,833)

(125,320)

(151,756)

(235,278)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Photocure and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Photocure. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Photocure and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Photocure. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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