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Enabling the energy revolution

2G Energy 20 May 2019 Update
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2G Energy

Enabling the energy revolution

Advanced materials technology

Scale research report - Update

20 May 2019

Price

€33.20

Market cap

€147m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

2GB

Listing

Deutsche Börse Scale

Shares in issue

4.4m

Last reported net cash end December 2018

€6.3m

Business description

2G Energy is a leading international manufacturer of highly efficient combined heat and power plants (CHP). These are deployed in the housing industry, agriculture, commercial and industrial companies, public energy utilities and municipal and local government authorities.

Bull

Decentralised CHP solutions reduce CO2 emissions by improving conversion efficiency.

Remote control capability improves service margins and supports flexibilisation.

Remote control capability aids integration into virtual power plants.

Bear

Uptake affected by green regulation

Economics depends on spark spread.

Low free float (46.5%).

Analyst

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 203 077 5700

2G Energy continues to diversify its activities by expanding export markets and developing service revenues so that it is less exposed to changes in the regulatory environment for renewables and CHP in Germany. This strategy delivered a 10.8% y-o-y increase in FY18 sales to a record €209.8m, and a 56.2% jump in EBIT to €11.5m.

Revenues exceeded €200m for first time in FY18

Group sales of €209.8m were at the top end of management guidance of €190–210m. Growth was driven by a 20.9% rise in service revenues to 37% of the total and a continued rise in demand for bio-fuel powered CHP systems in Germany capable of providing a more flexible output to complement electricity generated from renewable sources. Exports rose by 9.0% y-o-y to represent 34.7% of the total (FY17: 35.2%), with growth attributable entirely to service revenues. The associated EBIT margin (5.5% vs 3.9% in FY17) was also at the top end of management guidance (4–5.5%), supported by higher service revenues and the ‘Lead-to-Lean’ efficiency programme. Management proposes raising the dividend by 7% to €0.45/share. Net cash fell from €9.8m to €6.3m.

Further sales and EBIT margin growth in FY19

Noting an order book of over €156m at end Q119 (€130.5m at end Q118), management guidance is for €210–230m FY19 sales at an EBIT margin of 5.5–7%. This margin uplift is attributable to higher sales from the same production base and further process improvements arising from the ‘Lead-to-Lean’ initiative. We note signs of a recovery in demand for natural gas power systems in Germany now the EEG levy waiver has been reinstated.

Valuation: Fairly priced at current levels

The share price has picked up from a low of €20.20 at the end of December 2018 as the reinstatement of the EEG levy waiver on electricity has renewed interest in natural gas-powered CHP systems in Germany. At the current level, a comparison against established boiler manufacturers shows 2G Energy trading at a discount to the sample mean for year one and year two EV/sales multiples, in line with the sample mean for year one and year two EV/EBITDA multiples and a premium to the sample mean for year one and year two P/E multiples. This suggests that the shares are reasonably priced at current levels.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

189.4

7.2

1.11

0.42

29.9

1.3

12/18

209.8

11.2

1.72

0.45

19.3

1.4

12/19e

228.5

12.9

2.13

0.73

15.6

2.2

12/20e

247.5

15.9

2.58

0.85

12.9

2.6

Source: Refinitiv, company data

Edison Investment Research provides qualitative research coverage on companies in the Deutsche Börse Scale segment in accordance with section 36 subsection 3 of the General Terms and Conditions of Deutsche Börse AG for the Regulated Unofficial Market (Freiverkehr) on Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (as of 1 March 2017). Two to three research reports will be produced per year. Research reports do not contain Edison analyst financial forecasts.

Service growth drives record FY18 results

Drive to increase services benefits domestic and export revenues as well as EBIT margin

Group sales rose by 10.8% y-o-y to a record €209.8m. Growth was driven by a 20.9% rise in service revenues to 37% of the total and a continued rise in demand for bio-fuel powered CHP systems in Germany capable of providing a more flexible output to complement electricity generated from renewable sources. Exports rose by 9.0% y-o-y to represent 34.7% of the total (FY17: 35.2%), with growth attributable entirely to service revenues. The strongest performers were the UK at €13.8m sales and France at €13.1m. Personnel costs reduced slightly as a proportion of sales (by 0.4pp to 16.8%) demonstrating the positive impact of the ‘Lead-to-Lean’ efficiency programme. Other operating expenses increased in line with sales as higher logistics costs and travel costs associated with exports were balanced by lower sales commissions. EBIT jumped by 56.2% to €11.5m. The associated 1.6pp increase in EBIT margin was the result of higher service revenues and the ‘Lean-to-Lead’ initiative.

Net cash fell from €9.8m to €6.3m. Key elements included a €5.5m increase in trade receivables related to high levels of activity towards the year end, €4.7m income tax payments, €4.0m expenditure on the additional facility at the group’s headquarters in Heek, a further €1.0m in the vehicle fleet and purchase of tools and IT equipment, and a €0.5m (FY17: €3.7m) investment in CHP plant for use by the in-house leasing operation.

Changing legislative environment in Germany favourable to bio-gas flexibilisation projects

The pick-up in sales of biogas plants related to ‘flexibilisation’ projects facilities noted in FY17 continued in FY18. ‘Flexibilisation’ is the term for replacing older biogas plants that operate at a fairly constant output with higher output plants that can produce a variable output to balance any shortfall in electric power generated from wind or solar sources, which are inherently variable. The German Biogas Association estimates that 268MW of capacity related to flexibilisation was installed during 2018 compared with only 22MW of new biogas plants. 2G continued to expand its share of this market segment (from 22% to 27%) because it already has a large installed base of older plants that need upgrading, plus the control systems embedded in its CHP generators are highly suitable for flexible operation as part of a network of generation options. The 25% y-o-y improvement in domestic sales of bio-gas powered systems was partly offset by a further reduction (25%) in domestic sales of natural gas-powered systems. Demand for natural gas systems was severely affected by uncertainty regarding the waiver of the EEG (Renewable Sources Energy Act) levy. Until the end of 2017, operators of CHP plants only had to pay 40% of the EEG levy (ie 6.9c/kWh) on self-generated electricity. This exemption terminated at end-2017. In December 2018 the exception was reintroduced, with the waiver applied retrospectively from 1 January 2018.

Favourable outlook supported by order book

New order intake during Q119 totalled €39.2m. As anticipated by management, this was substantially below the record €54.7m secured in Q118, which benefited from a one-off boom in the German biogas sector, but was well above both the Q117 level (€28.7m) and the long-term average. Almost 50% of new orders were exports, with a particularly strong new order intake at the US subsidiary (€6.4m) following the change in management. Noting that the order book total at end Q119 was €156.3m, a 20% year-on-year increase, management reiterated the FY19 revenue guidance given in March (when the lower bound was revised upwards) of €210–230m. Based on further margin improvements resulting from the ‘Lead-to-Lean’ programme and higher sales from the same production base, management raised FY19 EBIT margin guidance from 4.0–5.5% to 5.5–7%.

Progress against strategic objectives

Product development

2G continues to develop differentiated product. For example, in September 2018 it received its first order for a CHP system powered by hydrogen that was generated by electrolysing water using surplus renewable energy. This first order is from Stadtwerk Hassfurt. Surplus electricity from a nearby wind park is used to generate hydrogen, which is stored until a time when demand for electricity exceeds supply, at which point 2G’s CHP system converts the hydrogen to electricity and heat. The heat generated will be used in a neighbouring malt factory, school and kindergarten. The advantage of using a CHP system over a fuel cell is that the former does not require ultra-pure hydrogen, so the gas can be mixed with hydrogen-rich waste gases from the chemical industry, landfill gases or natural gas.

Digitalisation: Live start of ‘IRIS’ intelligent service assistance

During FY18, 2G introduced its IRIS software platform, which was developed in-house. Up to 400 million plant and sensor values per week are now intelligently evaluated in real time and correlated to extract logical conclusions about CHP systems’ current and future behaviour. This information is used by the service department for predictive maintenance: identifying possible faults and initiating appropriate countermeasures, thus preventing unplanned downtimes. The resultant efficiency gains represent meaningful savings for customers as well as for 2G. We note that the group is able to resolve 70% of error messages created by its diagnostic software online, substantially reducing the cost of site visits and cutting equipment down-time.

Investment in service offer

Revenues from the services and spare parts business were 37% of the total (FY17: 34%). Management is keen to develop sales from this segment, since it reduces the risk of potential downturns in demand for CHP equipment in Germany and export markets as well as providing a mechanism for removing some of the seasonality in sales. While segmental sales are linked to the size of the installed base, which is increasing, management is pushing segmental growth that is faster than that for the group as a whole by encouraging partners to include service contracts with system sales, by investing in software that improves efficiency while providing a better service for customers overseas (see below) and strengthening the service team through the acquisition of a 50% stake in HJS Motoren for an undisclosed sum. This enhances the group’s service capability in southern Germany. In addition, the new 6,000m2 building in Heek gives significantly higher storage capabilities, allowing 2G to purchase spares in bulk, thus improving segmental profitability, as well as ensuring availability of parts for customers.

Lean philosophy

Management continued with its ‘Lead to Lean’ programme during FY18. Further lean philosophy measures have been initiated to improve production processes, and enable shorter delivery times, cost reductions and quality enhancements. By consistently implementing the lean philosophy and further shortening lead times, management intends to increase existing capacity by a further 10%, catalysing additional earnings potential. Given the very high order book position at end Q119 (see above), management expects to fully utilise two shifts throughout FY19.

Peer valuation

A comparison of prospective peer multiples for companies providing equipment for generating renewable energy yields limited information because few of the companies have reached commercial revenues and even fewer are generating meaningful profits. 2G Energy is trading on multiples that are lower than our sample mean, which is to be expected given that it has been generating substantial revenues and profits for several years.

The share price has picked up from a low of €20.20 at the end of December 2018 as the reinstatement of the EEG levy waiver on electricity has renewed interest in natural gas-powered CHP systems in Germany. At the current level, a comparison against established boiler manufacturers shows 2G Energy trading at a discount to the sample mean for year one and year two EV/sales multiples, in line with the sample mean for year one and year two EV/EBITDA multiples and a premium to the sample mean for year one and year two P/E multiples. This suggests that the shares are reasonably priced at current levels, although we note potential for an uplift if management is able to raise EBIT margins above the levels shown in the consensus estimates so they are closer to those of Generac Holdings, for example. We note that management raised the dividend by 7% to €0.45, representing a 1.4% yield at current levels.

Exhibit 1: Peer multiples

Name

Market cap (€m)

EV/sales 1FY (x)

EV/sales 2FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

P/E 1FY (x)

P/E 2FY (x)

EBIT margin 1FY (%)

Ballard Power Systems Inc

701

6.3

4.3

(18.2)

(35.1)

(17.6)

(29.6)

(32.1)

Ceres Power Holdings PLC

323

13.7

12.6

(31.8)

(35.8)

(39.6)

(46.5)

(53.9)

Enertime SAS

6

1.3

0.8

(16.2)

21.6

(11.6)

46.3

(11.8)

FuelCell Energy Inc

16

2.7

1.7

(6.4)

(14.6)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(57.7)

Hydrogenics Corp

136

3.1

2.1

(51.2)

45.7

(24.2)

344.8

(10.4)

ITM Power PLC

106

10.8

4.4

(8.1)

(13.7)

(12.4)

(18.4)

(130.1)

Nordex SE

1,302

0.4

0.4

9.4

6.2

(59.8)

28.4

0.4

Plug Power Inc

513

3.7

2.8

(2,507.9)

27.3

(6.5)

(12.5)

(18.4)

Redt Energy PLC

17

3.4

1.5

(1.2)

(1.7)

(1.1)

(1.7)

(293.7)

SFC Energy AG

111

1.6

1.4

19.0

13.3

41.5

25.7

6.0

Vestas Wind Systems A/S

15,184

1.2

1.1

8.8

7.8

19.3

16.2

9.0

Renewable energy equipment mean

3.4

2.1

12.4

12.2

30.4

29.2

DEUTZ AG

1,016

0.5

0.5

5.1

5.1

11.7

10.9

5.7

Generac Holdings Inc

3,220

2.1

2.0

10.4

10.1

12.5

11.9

17.3

Rafako SA

59

0.1

0.2

3.0

4.5

3.6

10.0

4.1

Conventional boilers mean

0.9

0.9

6.2

6.6

9.2

10.9

2G Energy AG

147

0.6

0.5

6.8

5.9

15.6

12.9

6.8

Source: Refinitiv. Note: Prices at 13 May 2019. Grey shading indicates exclusion from mean.

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Any Information, data, analysis and opinions contained in this report do not constitute investment advice by Deutsche Börse AG or the Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse. Any investment decision should be solely based on a securities offering document or another document containing all information required to make such an investment decision, including risk factors. This report has been commissioned by Deutsche Börse AG and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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General disclaimer and copyright

Any Information, data, analysis and opinions contained in this report do not constitute investment advice by Deutsche Börse AG or the Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse. Any investment decision should be solely based on a securities offering document or another document containing all information required to make such an investment decision, including risk factors. This report has been commissioned by Deutsche Börse AG and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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