Disposal of non-core eye-screening business

EMIS Group 3 April 2019 Update
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EMIS Group

Disposal of non-core eye-screening business

Disposal of business

Software & comp services

3 April 2019

Price

1,082p

Market cap

£685m

Net cash (£m) at end FY18

15.6

Shares in issue

63.3m

Free float

98%

Code

EMIS

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.4

17.6

33.3

Rel (local)

10.9

7.3

28.6

52-week high/low

1,082p

798p

Business description

EMIS is a clinical software supplier to the primary, community and acute care markets in the UK and provides software to the community pharmacy market. Its Patient business provides medical and wellbeing information as well as transactional services to patients.

Next events

H119 trading update

July 2019

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

EMIS Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The disposal of the Specialist & Care business for up to £14.9m removes a non-core, low-margin business from the group and provides funds that can be directed towards the recently unveiled technology roadmap. This results in cuts to our EPS forecasts of c 4% per annum, while operating margins are around two percentage points higher in FY20e and FY21e.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

EMIS adj. dil. EPS** (p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

12/17

160.4

35.2

43.1

47.0

25.8

25.1

12/18

170.1

35.1

42.7

47.3

28.4

25.4

12/19e

162.8

40.9

52.5

49.5

30.0

20.6

12/20e

165.1

44.3

56.8

54.0

32.0

19.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **EMIS adjusted EPS – cash accounts for development costs, and excludes exceptional items and amortisation of acquired intangibles.

Disposal of Specialist & Care business

EMIS has sold its Specialist & Care business to Northgate Public Services (UK) for an initial cash consideration of £14m and a contingent consideration of £0.9m. The £14m cash received includes £5m intercompany debt recently settled by EMIS, so will have a positive net cash impact of £9m. Specialist & Care provided eye screening services and software and was formed out of two businesses acquired in 2013/2014 for a total enterprise value of £12.5m. At the end of FY18, the business had net assets of £8.0m. EMIS had previously confirmed that this business was not core and the disposal will allow management to focus on the main elements of the growth plan unveiled at last year’s capital markets day.

Moving closer to 30% operating margin target

We have revised our forecasts to reflect the disposal. This reduces revenue forecasts by 8.9% in FY19, 11.8% in FY20 and 11.7% in FY21. Adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS fall by 3.4%, 4.4% and 4.6% respectively. As divisional adjusted operating margins were significantly below the group average (6.7–8.3% versus 22.4–24.4%), this results in adjusted group operating margins rising to 23.7%, 25.5% and 26.4%, respectively.

Valuation: Discount narrowing

The share price has reacted positively to strong FY18 results and confirmation that the NHS Digital service issue had been resolved within the budgeted provision, but EMIS continues to trade at a discount to peers on P/E basis. Uncertainty over the outcome of IT Futures is likely to weigh on the share price in the short term (a decision is expected in the summer); while we think it highly unlikely that EMIS would not be selected for the framework, there is still uncertainty around pricing, technical requirements and the future competitive environment. In the longer term, evidence that the company is making progress towards the targets set at the recent capital markets day will be the key catalyst for share price upside.

Changes to estimates

Exhibit 1: Forecast changes

£000s

FY19e

FY19e

Change

y-o-y

FY20e

FY20e

Change

y-o-y

FY21e

FY21e

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Old

New

Old

New

Revenues

178,742

162,849

-8.9%

-4.2%

187,170

165,112

-11.8%

1.4%

195,906

172,947

-11.7%

4.7%

Normalised operating profit

41,846

40,487

-3.2%

16.6%

45,790

43,838

-4.3%

8.3%

48,482

46,271

-4.6%

5.6%

Normalised operating margin

23.4%

24.9%

1.5%

24.5%

26.6%

2.1%

24.7%

26.8%

2.0%

Reported operating profit

33,122

32,256

-2.6%

12.2%

37,305

36,010

-3.5%

11.6%

41,234

39,681

-3.8%

10.2%

EMIS adjusted operating profit

39,993

38,633

-3.4%

2.7%

44,015

42,064

-4.4%

8.9%

47,852

45,648

-4.6%

8.5%

Adjusted operating margin

22.4%

23.7%

1.3%

23.5%

25.5%

2.0%

24.4%

26.4%

2.0%

Normalised EPS - p

54.2

52.5

-3.2%

22.9%

59.3

56.8

-4.2%

8.2%

62.7

59.9

-4.5%

5.5%

Reported EPS - p

43.2

42.0

-2.6%

16.6%

48.5

46.9

-3.4%

11.5%

53.6

51.6

-3.7%

10.1%

EMIS adjusted EPS - p

51.3

49.5

-3.4%

4.8%

56.5

54.0

-4.4%

8.9%

61.7

58.9

-4.6%

9.2%

Dividend per share - p

30.0

30.0

0.0%

5.6%

32.0

32.0

0.0%

6.7%

34.0

34.0

0.0%

6.3%

Net cash/(debt)

26,628

29,852

12.1%

91.1%

40,205

41,183

2.4%

38.0%

60,154

59,199

-1.6%

43.7%

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£000s

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 December

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

137,639

155,898

158,712

160,354

170,070

162,849

165,112

172,947

Cost of Sales

(12,782)

(12,955)

(14,151)

(14,674)

(14,686)

(14,722)

(14,933)

(15,998)

Gross Profit

124,857

142,943

144,561

145,680

155,384

148,127

150,180

156,950

EBITDA

 

 

47,645

51,964

52,288

49,222

51,361

54,631

58,166

61,044

Operating Profit (before amort. of acq. intang, SBP and except.)

34,787

37,123

38,897

34,895

34,709

40,487

43,838

46,271

EMIS adjusted operating profit

 

 

32,639

36,553

38,753

37,406

37,608

38,633

42,064

45,648

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(6,269)

(6,509)

(6,639)

(6,717)

(6,860)

(7,231)

(6,827)

(5,590)

Exceptionals

873

(18,500)

(6,714)

(16,988)

1,657

0

0

0

Share-based payments

(270)

(684)

(473)

(550)

(766)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Operating Profit

29,121

11,430

25,071

10,640

28,740

32,256

36,010

39,681

Net Interest

(543)

(449)

(237)

(299)

(185)

(200)

(200)

(200)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

34,206

36,625

39,159

35,192

35,139

40,923

44,274

46,707

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

28,540

10,932

25,333

10,937

29,170

32,692

36,446

40,117

Tax

(5,719)

(5,558)

(5,208)

(2,074)

(5,548)

(6,211)

(6,925)

(7,622)

Profit After Tax (norm)

27,617

29,801

32,175

27,989

27,854

33,148

35,862

37,832

Profit After Tax (FRS3)

22,821

5,374

20,125

8,863

23,622

26,481

29,522

32,495

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

62.8

62.7

62.8

62.9

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

EPS - normalised & diluted (p)

 

 

42.8

46.0

49.4

43.1

42.7

52.5

56.8

59.9

EPS - EMIS adjusted & diluted (p)

 

 

39.4

45.1

49.2

47.0

47.3

49.5

54.0

58.9

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

35.3

7.2

30.4

12.8

36.1

42.0

46.9

51.6

Dividend (p)

18.4

21.2

23.4

25.8

28.4

30.0

32.0

34.0

Gross Margin (%)

90.7%

91.7%

91.1%

90.8%

91.4%

91.0%

91.0%

90.8%

EBITDA Margin (%)

34.6%

33.3%

32.9%

30.7%

30.2%

33.5%

35.2%

35.3%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

25.3%

23.8%

24.5%

21.8%

20.4%

24.9%

26.6%

26.8%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

166,415

143,546

133,292

122,979

117,920

107,381

100,562

93,835

Intangible Assets

139,397

121,383

110,953

100,844

96,807

83,532

77,077

70,714

Tangible Assets

24,313

22,032

22,187

22,037

21,000

23,100

22,100

21,100

Other fixed assets

2,705

131

152

98

113

749

1,385

2,021

Current Assets

 

 

37,221

39,800

46,088

56,900

53,107

70,309

83,261

102,120

Stocks

1,550

1,206

1,815

1,633

1,264

1,264

1,264

1,264

Debtors

28,732

33,893

39,970

40,148

36,223

35,693

36,189

37,906

Cash

6,939

4,701

4,303

13,991

15,620

33,352

43,808

60,949

Current Liabilities

 

 

(67,665)

(63,819)

(56,158)

(65,131)

(60,169)

(58,332)

(59,119)

(61,045)

Creditors

(54,763)

(51,960)

(51,425)

(65,131)

(60,169)

(57,457)

(58,244)

(60,170)

Short term borrowings

(12,902)

(11,859)

(4,733)

0

0

(875)

(875)

(875)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(21,063)

(12,481)

(9,080)

(6,734)

(8,199)

(8,705)

(3,655)

(1,760)

Long term borrowings

(5,854)

(1,951)

0

0

0

(2,625)

(1,750)

(875)

Other long term liabilities

(15,209)

(10,530)

(9,080)

(6,734)

(8,199)

(6,080)

(1,905)

(885)

Net Assets

 

 

114,908

107,046

114,142

108,014

102,659

110,653

121,048

133,150

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

44,856

42,711

43,657

48,834

49,873

52,649

58,457

62,052

Net Interest

(445)

(422)

(324)

(356)

(214)

(200)

(200)

(200)

Tax

(5,247)

(6,896)

(7,655)

(8,139)

(5,830)

(7,530)

(12,300)

(8,643)

Capex

(15,161)

(14,058)

(12,084)

(11,342)

(12,767)

(13,700)

(13,700)

(13,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

(9,959)

(4,587)

(1,790)

329

(9,269)

5,500

(800)

(800)

Financing

(1,578)

492

881

571

906

(500)

(500)

(500)

Dividends

(10,792)

(14,532)

(14,006)

(15,476)

(21,070)

(18,487)

(19,626)

(20,893)

Net Cash Flow

1,674

2,708

8,679

14,421

1,629

17,732

11,331

18,016

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

13,491

11,817

9,109

430

(13,991)

(15,620)

(29,852)

(41,183)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

(3,500)

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

11,817

9,109

430

(13,991)

(15,620)

(29,852)

(41,183)

(59,199)

Source: EMIS, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by EMIS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by EMIS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by EMIS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by EMIS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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