Phoenix Spree Deutschland — Continuing to realise embedded value

Phoenix Spree Deutschland (LSE: PSDL)

Last close As at 15/04/2024

GBP1.40

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP130m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Phoenix Spree Deutschland — Continuing to realise embedded value

H220 condominium sales increased strongly at a healthy c 20% average premium to book value and disposal proceeds have supported continuing share repurchases at a c 30% discount to net asset value (NAV), enhancing value creation. As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, so far Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects mid-year, will determine the strategy for extracting the value embedded in its portfolio.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Phoenix Spree Deutschland

Continuing to realise embedded value

Trading update

Real estate

7 January 2021

Price

318p

Market cap

£305m

€1.11/£

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2020

246.3

Net LTV at 30 June 2020

33.0%

Shares in issue

100.8m

Free float

100%

Code

PSDL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.6)

(3.6)

(0.6)

Rel (local)

(1.9)

(14.5)

12.3

52-week high/low

332p

212p

Business description

Phoenix Spree Deutschland is a long-term investor in mid-market residential property in Berlin, targeting reliable income and capital growth. Its core strategy is to acquire unmodernised apartment blocks that may be improved to the benefit of tenants, generating attractive returns for shareholders based on improved rents and capital values.

Next events

FY20 valuation report

Early February 2020

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Phoenix Spree Deutschland is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

H220 condominium sales increased strongly at a healthy c 20% average premium to book value and disposal proceeds have supported continuing share repurchases at a c 30% discount to net asset value (NAV), enhancing value creation. As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, so far Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects mid-year, will determine the strategy for extracting the value embedded in its portfolio.

Year end

Gross profit***(€m)

EPS
(c)

EPRA NAV/
share (€)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

8.4

22

4.9

7.5

16.2

0.77

2.1

12/20e*

8.8

19

5.1

7.5

18.4

0.72

2.1

12/21s**

9.9

33

5.5

7.5

10.6

0.69

2.1

Note: *FY20 forecast unchanged. **12/21s is our ‘no Mietendeckel’ scenario. This note also includes a ‘continuing Mietendeckel’ scenario. ***Revenues less total property expenses (including property management expenses, repairs and maintenance, direct property costs and investment adviser fees.

Outcome will determine strategy for realising value

Resolution of the legal challenge to the Berlin rent-cap law (the Mietendeckel) will determine PSD’s strategy for extracting the value embedded in its portfolio. Until resolved, accurate forecasting is not possible and our initiation note provides scenario analysis based on the potential outcomes. PSD and its advisers firmly believe the cap is unconstitutional and will ultimately be repealed. In this case, we expect a return to focusing on capturing reversionary rent potential to drive income and capital growth (reflected in the FY21 scenario above). If not repealed, we expect a significant reduction in recurring income and a focus on accelerated condominium sales and increased disposal gains to realise embedded value. Positively, by limiting investment, the cap may aggravate the housing shortage and support growth in free market rents and capital values.

Condominium market remains strong

A total of 70% of the Berlin portfolio is now legally split into condominiums and 17% is in application. H220 notarised sales of condominiums increased to 30 units with a value €10.5m (H120: eight units/€3m) at an average €4,276 per sqm or 20.2% above book value (H120: 15.7%). Including guaranteed sales under the Accentro agreement the full-year notarised sale total is €14.6m, 62% up on FY19. Condominium pricing has remained strong and we expect a slight increase in the end-year portfolio valuation to be published in early February. The company has now repurchased c 4.7m shares for €15.2m (4.7% of the total) at an average 30% discount to H120 EPRA NAV per share.

Valuation: Well above average P/NAV discount

A c 30% discount to FY20e EPRA NAV per share compares with a five-year average of 8% since IPO. The discount is c 40% to our estimated ‘condominium’ valuation that we expect to be in focus if the rent cap is not repealed.

Berlin residential property

PSD is a Jersey-based closed-ended investment company, listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. It targets an attractive total return from investment in residential property in Berlin, the most populous city in Germany, and represents the largest rental housing market in the country. It is externally managed by QSix (formerly PMM Residential), an independent and owner-managed alternative asset manager with an experienced team of property and investment professionals and established track record in the German residential property market.

With strong demand for housing in Berlin driven by net migration and a relative lack of supply, rents and capital values have steadily increased. Against this background, PSD has built a strong track record of creating value by acquiring under-rented apartment blocks at low valuations and actively managing them to capture reversionary rent potential and drive income and capital growth, supplemented by the division and subsequent resale of selected apartment blocks as private units (condominiums) at market valuations. The average annualised EPRA NAV total return over the five years to end-FY19 of 20.4% per year was well ahead of the 8–10% per year target. PSD estimates the average free-market value of rents for the portfolio at €12–12.5 per sqm per month, well ahead of the H120 average contracted level of €9.1, and local demand for accommodation significantly outstrips supply.

Mietendeckel outcome will determine strategy for value capture

Reflecting concern at the pace of rent growth over recent years and a desire by local authorities to maintain Berlin as a city of affordable rented accommodation, the Berlin rent cap (Mietendeckel) was introduced in stages during 2020, becoming fully effective in November. PSD and its legal advisers firmly believe the Mietendeckel legislation will ultimately be ruled unconstitutional and overturned; the timing of this remains uncertain but PSD expects a resolution by mid-2021. As things stand, the rent cap and rent reductions introduced in November will have a material financial effect in FY21, but while legal challenges to the cap are in process, the company has sought to mitigate its effects while maintaining strategic flexibility. If not repealed, the rent cap seems likely to limit investment in the sector, aggravate the housing shortage, support further growth in free market rents and capital values, but will require a change in PSD’s strategy to realise this value.

Anticipating the strategic response

Although we incline to agree with the company’s view that eventual repeal is the most likely outcome, the uncertainty around this, particularly in terms of timing, renders an accurate prediction for the next 12 months impossible. For that reason, in our initiation note we embedded the potential strategic responses and financial effects into two scenarios, intended to illustrate the alternative strategic paths that the company may take and the financial implications of these on an annualised basis. We would strongly encourage readers that have not seen the initiation note to examine the details of these scenarios. The first scenario (illustrated at the start of this report) assumes the Mietendeckel is repealed, that strategy returns to its normal focus on reversionary rent capture, and that this is fully effective throughout FY21. If a repeal comes in FY21, it is likely to be back dated but it is also possible the terms of any repeal may not be effective until FY22. An alternative scenario assumes no repeal and captures the likely strategic response and financial implications of accelerated condominium sales to realise value embedded in the portfolio. It also assumes this is effective throughout FY21, but because management is unlikely to commit to a full strategic shift until the rent cap challenge is settled, it may also be FY22 before the full effect is actually seen.

Assuming a rent cap repeal and return to the traditional strategy based on reversionary rent capture, the FY21 scenario indicates an EPRA NAV total return of 8.1%, within the company’s long-term 8–10% return target range. Relative to the low rates of return prevailing in market, taking account of the historically low volatility displayed by residential assets and considering the near 30% discount to FY20e EPRA NAV, we believe this is attractive.

If there is no repeal, we expect investors to focus on the significant value embedded in the portfolio, to be realised on an accelerated basis through significantly increased condominium sales. Almost 90% of the Berlin portfolio may soon be legally split into condominiums and our analysis indicates the discount to underlying NAV, adjusting asset values to reflect market-level condominium pricing, the discount to NAV is likely to be c 40%.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Year ending 31 December, €m unless stated otherwise

2017

2018

2019

2020e

‘Mietendeckel repealed’ scenario* 2021

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

23.7

22.7

22.6

24.1

24.8

Total property expenses

(12.6)

(15.8)

(14.2)

(15.3)

(14.8)

Gross profit

11.1

6.9

8.4

8.8

9.9

Administrative expenses

(3.0)

(3.2)

(3.1)

(3.7)

(3.3)

Gain on disposal of investment property

5.3

1.0

0.9

2.0

1.9

Fair value movement on investment property

157.4

66.1

41.5

24.4

39.1

Property advisor performance fee

(26.3)

(4.0)

(2.8)

1.9

(0.2)

Separately disclosed items

0.0

(1.0)

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

Operating profit

144.5

65.9

44.6

33.4

47.4

Net finance charge

(6.0)

(9.5)

(16.0)

(9.7)

(6.8)

Gain on financial asset

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit before tax

138.5

56.4

28.6

23.7

40.7

Tax

(26.2)

(11.1)

(5.8)

(4.4)

(7.8)

Profit after tax

112.3

45.4

22.7

19.2

32.8

Non-controlling interest

(0.8)

(0.3)

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.5)

Attributable profit after tax

111.5

45.1

22.3

18.9

32.3

Closing basic number of shares (m)

92.5

100.8

97.8

96.1

96.1

Average diluted number of shares (m)

100.2

99.0

102.1

98.7

97.3

IFRS EPS, diluted (c)

111.35

45.57

21.83

19.18

33.25

DPS declared (c)

6.9

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

DPS declared (Sterling pence equivalent)

6.4

6.7

6.5

6.8

6.8

EPRA NAV total return

52.6%

13.1%

9.3%

5.9%

8.1%

BALANCE SHEET

Investment properties

502.4

632.9

719.5

738.9

771.1

Other non-current assets

2.9

3.4

3.5

3.9

3.9

Total non-current assets

505.3

636.4

723.0

742.8

775.0

Investment properties held for sale

106.9

12.7

10.6

7.5

7.5

Cash & equivalents

27.2

26.9

42.4

33.4

35.0

Other current assets

14.4

7.5

9.5

9.6

10.1

Total current assets

148.5

47.1

62.6

50.5

52.6

Borrowings

(2.6)

(3.6)

(17.8)

0.0

0.0

Other current liabilities

(9.4)

(13.2)

(15.6)

(8.4)

(8.8)

Total current liabilities

(12.1)

(16.8)

(33.4)

(8.4)

(8.8)

Borrowings

(219.6)

(191.6)

(258.5)

(279.9)

(280.4)

Other non-current liabilities

(54.1)

(65.2)

(76.8)

(83.9)

(91.8)

Total non-current liabilities

(273.8)

(256.9)

(335.3)

(363.9)

(372.2)

Net assets

367.9

409.8

416.9

421.0

446.5

Non-controlling interest

(1.7)

(2.0)

(3.0)

(3.3)

(3.8)

Net attributable assets

366.2

407.9

413.9

417.7

442.7

Adjust for:

Deferred tax assets & liabilities

44.6

52.5

58.3

62.8

70.6

Derivative financial instruments

3.3

6.0

16.0

18.3

18.3

Other EPRA adjustments

(34.0)

(5.4)

(6.8)

(4.9)

(5.1)

EPRA net assets

380.2

461.0

481.4

493.8

526.5

IFRS NAV per share (€)

3.96

4.05

4.23

4.35

4.61

EPRA NAV per share (€)

4.11

4.58

4.92

5.14

5.48

CASH-FLOW

Cash flow from operating activity

5.9

13.2

1.5

6.0

6.6

Income tax paid

(0.1)

(4.7)

(0.0)

(1.4)

0.0

Net cash flow from operating activity

5.8

8.5

1.4

4.7

6.6

Property additions

(76.5)

(47.3)

(32.2)

0.0

0.0

Proceeds from disposal of investment property

60.4

86.0

13.5

13.2

15.9

Capital expenditure on investment property

(6.7)

(7.9)

(6.5)

(4.5)

(7.0)

Other cash flow from investing activity

0.0

0.0

0.1

(5.8)

0.0

Cash flow from investing activity

(22.7)

30.8

(25.1)

2.9

8.9

Interest paid

(5.1)

(5.1)

(6.2)

(6.8)

(6.4)

Bank debt drawn/(repaid)

36.7

(27.0)

64.6

3.4

0.0

Share issuance/repurchase

0.0

0.0

(11.5)

(6.1)

(0.3)

Dividends paid

(6.0)

(7.5)

(7.7)

(7.2)

(7.2)

Cash flow from financing activity

25.6

(39.6)

39.2

(16.6)

(13.8)

Change in cash

8.7

(0.3)

15.5

(9.0)

1.6

FX

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

Opening cash

18.5

27.2

26.9

42.4

33.4

Closing cash

27.2

26.9

42.4

33.4

35.0

Closing debt

(222.3)

(195.3)

(280.2)

(283.6)

(283.6)

Closing net debt

(195.1)

(168.4)

(237.8)

(250.2)

(248.6)

LTV

32.0%

26.1%

32.6%

33.5%

31.9%

Source: Phoenix Spree historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts. Note: *As described within this report.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Phoenix Spree Deutschland and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Phoenix Spree Deutschland. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison)..

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Phoenix Spree Deutschland and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Phoenix Spree Deutschland. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison)..

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: TMT

Allied Minds — FY21 to see benefits of commercial progress

In its strategic update, management highlighted robust commercial progress across the majority of Allied Minds’ portfolio in FY20 (notably at Federated Wireless, BridgeComm and Orbital Sidekick), expected to be reflected by multiple funding rounds in FY21. Spin Memory was the exception, where, although technical progress has been made, six to nine months of commercial progress was lost with the closure of its foundry due to COVID-19. Together with the unexpected loss of a government bid, management now anticipates a down round for Spin Memory in FY21 at a ‘significantly reduced valuation’. With estimated parent cash of US$20.4m at year end, Allied Minds remains sufficiently capitalised. As a floor, our estimate of parent cash (6.2p) plus our estimate for Federated Wireless (23.9p fully diluted) underpins the current share price (32.3p at close on 6 January 2021). Even entirely setting aside Spin Memory, Allied Minds’ remaining holdings plus parent cash total 43.1p.

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