Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) is a long-term investor in mid-market residential property in Berlin, targeting reliable income and capital growth. Its core strategy is to acquire unmodernised apartment blocks that may be improved to the benefit of tenants, generating attractive returns for shareholders.
Demographic trends within the Berlin market remain positive, providing continuing support for the rental market. Rising interest rates, inflation and economic uncertainty is depressing private buyer and institutional investment demand, continues to weigh on capital values.
Richard Collins
COO
Stuart Young
Partner, head of public markets
Forecast net cash (€m)
319.3
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 0.0 | (18.7) | (43.0) |
Relative | 2.2 | (15.3) | (42.4) |
52 week high/low | 352.0p/185.5p |
FY22 EPRA NTA per share of €5.1 was in line with PSD’s guidance. A pre-tax loss of €17.5m (FY21: 45.3m profit) reflected a c €80m y-o-y negative swing in property values, partly offset by gains on interest rate derivatives. Like-for-like rental income per sqm increased by 3.9%, with new leases in Berlin signed at more than 30% above passing rent. Lower condominium sales volumes reflected market conditions but the premium to book value remained above 20%. We expect PSD to continue to benefit from rent reversion built into the portfolio but while it is well-placed for a medium-term recovery in condominium sales (76% of units are designated as such), it is difficult to call a turn in the buyer/investment market. Gearing is comfortable (LTV of 39%) and interest costs are fixed at 2.1% until 2026. Nonetheless, asset sales are a key source of cash flow and in common with locally listed peers, the board has decided to suspend dividends and preserve cash for investment in the core business.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021A | 25.8 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 39.3 | 5.8 | 27.2 |
2022A | 25.9 | (36.5) | (17.5) | (16.8) | N/A | 124.7 |
2023E | 27.7 | (50.9) | (59.1) | (54.0) | N/A | 29.0 |
2024E | 28.8 | 9.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 254.2 | 22.6 |
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