Christmas trading - incremental strength

Findel 25 January 2019 Update
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Findel

Christmas trading - incremental strength

Christmas trading update

Retail

25 January 2019

Price

200p

Market cap

£173m

Core net debt (£m) at 31 December 2018

c 54

Shares in issue

86.4m

Free float

69%

Code

FDL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.0)

(21.6)

0.0

Rel (local)

(3.8)

(20.3)

11.8

52-week high/low

302.0p

172.2p

Business description

Findel is a multi-channel retailer operating across the business-to-consumer and business-to-business market places. It is a market leader in the home shopping and educational supplies sectors in the UK.

Next events

Trading update

April 2019

Analysts

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Kate Heseltine

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Findel is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Increased trading strength in the late Christmas period marks Findel out as one of the winners in a very mixed retail landscape. The combination of a serious and wide-ranging value offer, with responsible consumer credit support, appeals to the substantial consumer cohort that is managing household finances. The company is clear of terrestrial retail issues, while online ordering has hit a new high of 78% this Christmas. We upgrade our underlying IFRS9 adjusted earnings forecasts, and our updated valuation of 348p now shows 74% headroom above the share price.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

03/17**

457.0

40.8

22.2

20.4

9.8

6.1

03/18

479.0

46.6

26.8

25.9

7.7

5.3

03/19e

506.6

49.8

27.0

26.3

7.6

5.0

03/20e

539.9

53.8

29.2

28.2

7.1

4.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excl intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. **53 weeks, restated. Historical results are not restated for IFRS9.

Even stronger late Christmas trading

The retail business, renamed Studio, traded strongly over the 15 weeks to the end of December. Product sales grew 13.6% year-on-year, an improved rate against 12% for the 10 weeks previously reported. Online ordering has hit a new peak of 78% of orders, and margins continue in a range 125–175bp ahead of the prior year. Financial services growth was comparable, to produce 13.7% total revenue growth for Studio. The new calendar year has started well, helped by mild weather.

Education: Turnaround progress continues

In a quiet period for schools spend, Q3 core revenue grew 3.8%. Reflecting its investments both in margin and order channels, the division continues to see underlying growth in its customer base, with a significant swing to online ordering.

Forecast: Upgrade driven by Studio performance

We upgrade our underlying PBT forecasts (adjusted for IFRS9) by 3.8% for FY19 and 3.5% for FY20, reflecting the higher level of product sales in Studio. Separately, we are rebasing our forecast to reflect IFRS9, the current accounting standard on financial instruments, which Findel is adopting in FY19. Prior years are not restated, but on a pro forma basis, comparable FY19e PBT growth is 10.7%. On revenue up 5.8%, this shows a meaningful positive operational gearing effect.

Valuation: Weak share price leaves 74% upside

Since interim results on 28 November, the share price has declined by 11%, which appears to us unjustified given that trading has been increasingly strong, while the balance sheet has improved. There is little overall change to our valuation. Our DCF valuation increases 2% to 418p, although our peer comparison reduces from 319p to 278p reflecting weakness elsewhere in the retail sector. These produce a blended valuation of 348p (previously 360p), which nevertheless represents a 74% premium to the share price.

Christmas trading: Further strengthening

Findel’s total revenue grew 10.9% in Q3 and 6.9% year to date.

Studio: Excellent late finish

The retail business, now renamed Studio rather than Express Gifts, traded strongly over the 15 weeks to the end of December (the period was extended to include the last two weeks of September to achieve a proper comparison, given the earlier phasing of marketing activity in 2018). Product sales grew 13.6% year-on-year, comparing well against 12% for the 10 weeks reported at the time of the interim results. This appears to reflect continuation of the general later trend to Christmas, combined with more short-term ordering from the increasingly online customer base. Demand has been well spread across product ranges, with toys and personalised nightwear popular as Christmas gifts.

Online ordering increased in value by 25% and has hit a new peak of 78% of orders, against 72% at the same stage last year, with orders from mobiles showing relatively high frequency at lower order value. We understand that gross margins continue to be in the guided range of 125–175bp ahead of the prior year. After a margin decline of 50bp in H1, if achieved for the full year this implies that second-half margins would be 270–350bp higher, representing good momentum.

The company is also seeing a later phasing of Christmas orders, probably as a result of improvements in fulfilment across the online market generally.

Financial services growth was comparable, to produce 13.7% total revenue growth for Studio.

The new calendar year has started well, with mild weather contributing to relative strength in homewares and garden products.

Education: Progress continues

The Christmas period, including school holidays, is a quiet period for educational spend. However, core revenue, excluding the discontinued Sainsbury’s retail scheme, grew by 3.8% in the quarter, against underlying growth of 0.8% in the first half. In fundamental terms, the business continues to see promising growth in its customer base as well as a significant swing to online ordering, reflecting its investments both in margin and order channels.

Balance sheet: Approaching 1x leverage

As a result of stronger trading performance and better working capital management, core net debt at end December improved beyond management’s previous expectations to c £54m against £76.7m at December 2017. We forecast March 2019 core net debt of £58.5m (FY18: £73.8m) which, with FY19 EBITDA forecast at £49.8m, represents leverage of 1.2x.

Forecast: Performance upgrade, accounting change

We upgrade our PBT forecasts (adjusted for IFRS9) by 3.8% for FY19 and 3.5% for FY20, reflecting the higher level of product sales in Studio. Separately, we are rebasing our forecast to reflect IFRS9, the current accounting standard on financial instruments, which Findel is adopting in FY19. Prior years will not be restated, but on a pro forma basis, FY18 PBT would be £24.4m, giving comparable FY19e PBT growth of 10.7%. On revenue up 5.8%, this shows a meaningfully positive operational gearing effect.

Accounting change: IFRS9 on bad debt provisions

The adoption of IFRS9 reflects a more cautious approach to bad debt provisioning, resulting in a £2.5m increase in our forecast provision for FY19. The effects of our forecast upgrade and the accounting restatement on our PBT forecasts are as follows:

Exhibit 1: Effect of accounting change and performance upgrade on PBT

£m

FY19e

FY20e

Previous forecast

28.5

30.9

IFRS9 accounting change

(2.5)

(2.7)

Rebased previous forecast

26.0

28.2

Upgrade

1.0

1.0

New forecast

27.0

29.2

Upgrade vs IFRS9 adjusted previous forecast (%)

3.8%

3.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Given that external economic assumptions form an input into the IFRS9 provisioning process, Findel has had to take a position on the economic outlook that includes a wide range of possible outcomes on Brexit. Management has made relatively cautious assumptions, but has not taken a worst-case approach, such as might be triggered by a no-deal exit.

The net effect of the changes drives lower EPS, PBT and EBITDA forecasts:

Exhibit 2: Net changes to forecasts

 

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

 

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

03/19e

27.7

26.3

-5.0%

28.5

27.0

-5.2%

51.3

49.8

-2.9%

03/20e

29.8

28.2

-5.3%

30.9

29.2

-5.6%

55.5

53.8

-3.1%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation: 74% headroom

There is little overall change to our valuation. With the short-term upgrade to our forecasts we increase our DCF valuation from 401p to 418p. However, further de-rating in the sector means that our peer comparison reduces from 319p to 278p. These produce a blended valuation of 348p, 3% lower than our previous 360p. That now represents a 74% premium to the share price, which has declined recently without underlying cause, we believe.


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

457,030

478,959

506,558

539,858

Cost of Sales

(269,182)

(280,230)

(301,540)

(320,530)

Gross Profit

187,848

198,729

205,018

219,328

EBITDA

 

 

40,786

46,569

49,795

53,816

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

33,300

38,146

40,934

44,855

Intangible Amortisation

(1,959)

(1,996)

(2,552)

(2,387)

Operating profit pre exc post intang amortisation

31,341

36,150

38,381

42,468

Exceptionals

(82,152)

0

0

0

Other/share based payments

(191)

(199)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Operating Profit

(51,002)

35,951

37,381

41,468

Net Interest

(8,920)

(9,130)

(10,345)

(12,244)

Derivatives, other

556

(4,701)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

22,230

26,821

27,036

29,225

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(59,366)

22,120

27,036

29,225

Tax

1,659

2,081

(5,338)

(5,845)

Profit After Tax (norm)

17,617

22,397

22,697

24,380

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(57,707)

24,201

21,697

23,380

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

86.3

86.3

86.3

86.3

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

20.4

25.9

26.3

28.2

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

20.4

25.9

26.3

28.2

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(66.8)

28.0

25.1

27.1

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

41.1

41.5

40.5

40.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

8.9

9.7

9.8

10.0

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

7.3

8.0

8.1

8.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

79,012

81,687

84,288

84,940

Intangible Assets

26,185

25,175

28,947

28,560

Tangible Assets

44,417

47,596

46,489

47,528

Investments

8,410

8,916

8,852

8,852

Current Assets

 

 

301,265

311,918

339,383

364,813

Stocks

57,108

54,180

57,194

70,567

Debtors

212,648

231,037

246,567

260,124

Cash

29,173

26,244

35,299

33,800

Other

2,336

457

322

322

Current Liabilities

 

 

(91,789)

(81,190)

(85,140)

(91,829)

Creditors

(91,244)

(80,618)

(84,622)

(91,311)

Short term borrowings

(545)

(572)

(518)

(518)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(271,785)

(273,170)

(276,172)

(273,672)

Long term borrowings

(253,603)

(258,001)

(264,192)

(264,192)

Other long term liabilities

(18,182)

(15,169)

(11,980)

(9,480)

Net Assets

 

 

16,703

39,245

62,359

84,252

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

12,281

11,439

28,259

28,769

Net Interest

(9,103)

(8,365)

(10,716)

(12,424)

Tax

148

581

(1,984)

(5,845)

Capex

(11,724)

(10,595)

(12,357)

(12,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

1,168

(450)

0

0

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(7,230)

(7,390)

3,201

(1,499)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

216,682

224,974

232,329

229,411

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

(283)

0

Other

(1,062)

35

(0)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

224,974

232,329

229,411

230,910

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: Historical results are not restated for IFRS9.

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This report has been commissioned by Findel and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Findel. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Findel and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Findel. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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